building a bankroll preview

Proven Strategies for Moving Up in Stakes Playing No Limit Hold’em Online

Pawel “verneer” Nazarewicz

Mt. Micro Poker PublishingAthens, Georgia

Foreword by Taylor Caby

First Edition

First Printing February 2012

All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the U.S. Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.

Copyright © 2012 by Pawel Nazarewicz

Mt. Micro Poker Athens, Georgia

Visit our website at www.MtMicroPoker.com.

First Edition: February 2012

SBN-13: 978-0615589886

Book and cover design by Lee Przytula.

SBN-10: 061558988X

To Carl

Table of Contents

Foreword xvPreface xviiAcknowledgements xix

Introduction 1The Seven Fundamentals 2Is this Book for You? 3

Fundamental One: Accept Variance 7Brag: No Variance” 7Understanding Variance 8Expected Swings 9Variance and Losing 13Win Rate 17

Fundamental Two: Manage Your Bankroll 19Range of Limits 20Varying Your Buy-In 21

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 23HUD Stats Convergence 24Note Taking 28Basic HUD Setup 33Initial Reads 34Basic Player Types 35Seat Selection 41

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Fundamental Four: Play Solid 45Opening the Betting 45Opening Bet Sizes 46Opening Ranges 47Isolating Limpers 56Calling a Raise 61

Three-Betting and Beyond 65Three-Betting 65Squeezing 70Calling a Three-Bet 74Four-Betting 80

Playing Versus a Steal 87Three-Betting Versus a Steal 92Calling Versus a Steal 92Blind Versus Blind 96

Continuation Betting 97Flop Dynamics 97Fold Equity 99To Bet or Not to Bet? 101Choosing a Bet Size 103

Facing a Continuation Bet 109Evaluating Hand Strength 109Make the Most Profitable Play 114Donk Betting 117

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Playing Turns and Rivers 123Homer Versus Bart 124Scare Cards and Blank Cards 130The Art of the Turn 132The Baluga Theorem 133Checking for Pot Control 134Betting for Pot Control 135The Art of the River 136Bluff-Catching 136

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game 143A-Game 145Tilt 147Losing 150Moving Up 153Goals 155Entitlement 157

Fundamental Six: Put in the Hours 161

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 165Passive Learning 165Active Learning 166Reviewing a Session 168Total Game Review 172

Final Thoughts 185

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List of Figures

Figure 1-1. 2011 Challenge results in big blinds 2

Figure 2-1. Vincent “vinivici9586” Wille’s 2009 results in dollars 8Figure 2-2. 2011 Challenge win rate and standard deviation 9Figure 2-3. Variance of a 2 bb/100 winner 10Figure 2-4. Variance of a 5 bb/100 winner 11Figure 2-5. Variance of a 8 bb/100 winner 12

Figure 4-1. Classifying basic player types 35Figure 4-2. Distribution of player types over 42,600 hands 37Figure 4-3. Distribution of player types over 65,600 hands 37Figure 4-4. Hold’em Manager stats 15/13 TAG 38Figure 4-5. Hold’em Manager stats 8/6 nit 39Figure 4-6. Hold’em Manager stats 15/12 TAG 40Figure 4-7. 25NL sample table 43

Figure 7-1. Stats when facing a steal from the cutoff or button 88Figure 7-2. Showdown and non showdown winnings when three-betting 88Figure 7-3. Stats when three-betting from the blinds 89Figure 7-4. Showdown and non showdown winnings when calling 89Figure 7-5. Stats when calling from the blinds 89Figure 7-6. Showdown and non-showdown winnings when three-betting 90Figure 7-7. Stats when three-betting 90Figure 7-8. Showdown and non-showdown winnings when calling 91Figure 7-9. Stats when calling 91

Figure 9-1. Position Graph 110Figure 9-2. Position Graph 111Figure 9-3. Most profitable play flowchart 114

Figure 10-1. Homer's range flowchart 127

Figure 11-1. Bell curve performance chart 146

Figure 13-1. Hold'em Manager report 168Figure 13-2. Largest losing pots 168Figure 13-3. Largest winning pots 171Figure 13-4. Turn continuation bet possible = true filter 171Figure 13-5. Hold'em Manager import 172Figure 13-6. Winnings versus EV winnings 173Figure 13-7. Showdown winnings versus non-showdown winnings 173Figure 13-8. HUD import 175Figure 13-9. Leak-Finding Three-Bet percentage 176Figure 13-10. Big pots graph 179Figure 13-11. Hands view column selection 180Figure 13-12. Winners and losers 180

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List of Tables

Table 1-1. Is this book for you? 4Table 1-2. Approximate HUD stats for regulars 5

Table 4-1. Player A stats 24Table 4-2. Player B stats 26Table 4-3. Player C stats 27

Table 5-1. UTG and UTG+1 opening range 47Table 5-2. MP1 and MP2 opening range 48Table 5-3. Hijack opening range 49Table 5-4. Cutoff opening range 50Table 5-5. Button opening range 50Table 5-6. Button opening range versus a loose-passive 51Table 5-7. Button opening range versus a LAG 52Table 5-8. Small blind opening range 53Table 5-9. Nit pop-up 54Table 5-10. LAG pop-up 55Table 5-11. Small blind opening range versus a LAG in the big blind 56

Table 8-1. Choosing a bet size 103

Table 9-1. Respecting a continuation bet 112

Table 10-1. Homer's preflop range 124Table 10-2. Homer's preflop calling range 125Table 10-3. Homer's flop calling range 126Table 10-4. Preflop calling range versus a regular heads up 129Table 10-5. Flop calling range versus a regular heads up 130Table 10-6. Turn calling range 131

xv

ForewordAs the cofounder of CardRunners and in my time spent playing high stakes poker, I've been in close contact with hundreds of the world's best poker players. It's been my job to identify talented players who are not only able to beat the game, but more importantly, can articulate their thought process to others in a way that is easy to understand.

It's actually much harder than you might think to find players who have both of these qualities. This is a by-product of what characteristics most winning online poker players share.

Most gifted online poker players are young, introverted, and have very limited experience actually talking to other people about poker. Instead of pursuing poker as a hobby and a means of socializing like most pre-internet players, these players have spent their time playing millions of hands, studying theory and math, and discussing poker in short bursts on forums or on instant messenger with other players of similar skill levels.

This last point should be emphasized. Most successful internet poker players gravitate towards befriending and discussing concepts with other players of similar skills levels. Tom Dwan and Phil Galfond discuss strategy together. Mid stakes grinders regularly participate in discussion about their games and mutual opponents. However, you rarely see exceptional players discussing poker with, or teaching poker to, players who are newer to the game. Most skilled poker players just do not have the desire or the skill set to help newer players become winners at the game.

Pawel is the exception to this trend. Few in the online poker community know this, but before he was a professional poker player, he taught high school math for four years. With a Master's in Education coupled with real world experience teaching students, Pawel is an experienced educator.

He is also an extremely experienced online player. He has played hundreds of thousands of hands of online poker, produced over one hundred educational videos at CardRunners, and has one of the best poker blogs on the internet. This is in addition to the thousands of forum posts that you see from most successful online poker players.

I can't say enough great things about Pawel as a person and his contributions to the CardRunners community. If I could recommend one person to my friends to teach micro and small stakes online poker, it would be him. I am sure you will learn a lot from this book.

–Taylor Caby

xvii

PrefaceSince 2006, I have been helping micro and small stakes players improve their poker game. However, my story begins in 2002 when I graduated from the University of Tennessee with a Bachelor of Science in Mathematics and a minor in psychology. I went on to receive my Master's in Math Education at the University of Georgia.

A few years after graduate school, I stumbled across the game of poker. Like many of you, I was instantly enamoured. I understood early on that poker was a game of skill and I was determined to become the best player I could be.

In 2006, I found myself both teaching at a local high school and beating online poker. The next year CardRunners, a poker instruction website, approached me about becoming a guest pro. By 2008 I had decided to pursue poker full-time.

Fast forward to 2010. While everyone was complaining about how difficult online poker had become, I wanted to prove to myself (and to others) that armed with proper bankroll management, strong work ethic, and solid understanding of game theory, there was still good money to be made.

So beginning 2010 and 2011 with minimal deposits of $100 and of $200 respec-tively, I started what became known as the Moving Up Through uNL in 201X Challenge. I chronicled my experiences, starting at the micro stakes, moving up in limits, and turning my meager investments into five-figure bankrolls. I documented both of my challenges on TwoPlusTwo.com, sharing my results and my strategies with the readers. This book builds in great detail on the advice from those threads.

Since becoming a CardRunners Pro in 2007, I have produced over 100 training videos geared towards micro and low stakes players. I also maintain a popular blog and have written strategy articles for CardPlayer and Bluff magazines.

I currently live in Athens, Georgia with my wife Katy.

1O N E

INTRODUCTION

On January 1st of 2011, I deposited $200 in my Full Tilt Poker account and challenged myself to turn it into $10,000. Exactly 100 days later, I met my goal (see figure 1-1). My bankroll had reached five-figures in

just 83 actual “playing” days. Ironically, I reached my objective the day before Black Friday.

I wrote this book to serve as a foundation for how this can be replicated, and in some cases, done even faster and better.

Anyone can become a winning poker player. Most don’t. As I listen to students and read the forums, it becomes abundantly clear that most people are focused on the wrong things.

I see hands posted on the forums which show players making river calls with queen-high, or floating with air for two streets, in order to bluff-shove all-in on the river to get a fold. The comments others make when seeing such hands are “sick,” “sexy,” and “OMG!”

This mentality is counter-productive if your goals include:

1. Building a bankroll at your current stakes.

2. Moving up in stakes and repeating goal #1.

2 Building a Bankroll

I want to help you execute the above process by outlining seven fundamentals which are critical to having long-term success in poker. My hope is that this book serves as a springboard to help you make more money at your current limit before moving up to the next one and beyond.

It is important to note that although my play in the 2011 Challenge was strictly at the full ring Rush tables, the lessons in this book carry over to non-Rush games as well as to six-max games.

I have identified seven key areas essential to being a successful long-term winner in poker regardless of stake, site, or format. In this book, I will outline those seven areas while providing many examples from my play at 10NL and at 25NL.

The Seven FundamentalsThere is absolutely no reason why any truly motivated person can’t be a long-term winner playing poker. That said, there are plenty of reasons why most people are destined to be long-term losers. Let’s look at what it takes to have long-term success in this game.

1. Accept Variance. Just because you are a good player doesn’t mean you will win over the course of a session, a day, a week, or even a month. Luck plays

Figure 1-1. 2011 Challenge results in big blinds

Introduction 3

a significant role in poker. It is important to understand that just because you are winning, that doesn’t mean that you are playing well. Conversely, losing doesn’t mean you are playing poorly.

2. Manage Your Bankroll. This is your main line of defense against going broke. If you are losing, bankroll management forces you to eventually drop down in stakes. It is also serves as a motivator for moving up. If you are winning, start taking shots at the next level.

3. Develop Reads. It is important to understand both your HUD and how stats converge. Identify different opponent types and figure out the proper strategy adjustments to make against them at the tables.

4. Play Solid. Know why certain plays will win you money in the long run and why others will not. None of the ideas discussed in this section should come as a major surprise. Yet it is amazing how often I observe seemingly solid players making huge fundamental errors at the tables.

5. Stay on Your A-Game. There is a big difference between knowing the right play and actually making the right play. To be a winning player, you need to control tilt and to play your A-game over long periods of time. For many of you, this will be a work-in-progress.

6. Put in the Hours. Mastery is achieved through experience. There is no substitute for actual work at and away from the tables.

7. Remain a Student. Resist falling into complacency. It happens so easily with poker. Evaluate your game continually, identify which areas give you trouble, and work hard to improve them. Study players that you respect and use their success as motivation.

If you master these seven areas, you will be a winning poker player in the long-term. I realize that is much easier said than done. Still, my goal is to make this process as easy as possible for you.

Is this Book for You?This book is not for everyone (see table 1-1). If you are already crushing medium stakes games at a high level, it is unlikely that this book will offer much additional insight.

I have focused on making the advice in this book simple to comprehend by breaking down the fundamental reasons for taking different actions. I believe


Win Rate < 2 BB/100 Win Rate ≥ 2 BB/100

Stakes < 100NL

Yes. You are my main target audience. You are currently playing lower stakes and not crushing your limit.

Yes. You are cruising at your limit, but haven’t moved up yet. This book can be the catalyst to help you make the jump.

Stakes ≥ 100NL

Yes. You are playing small stakes but clearly have some leaks in your game. This book could help you refocus on the fundamentals of winning poker.

Probably Not. You are already playing small stakes or higher. You are likely already familiar with most of the information in this book.

Table 1-1. Is this book for you?

that simple building blocks are important for developing poker players and that a strong foundation is paramount for success.

That said, this book doesn’t cover everything. Poker is a very complicated game. It would be impossible to cover all the different plays and all the different scenarios that a player might face over the course of a million hands. Nonetheless, I have included what I believe are the most common and the most important situations.

Finally, the chapter about playing your A-game was taken directly from books I have read and conversations I have had with Tommy Angelo and Jared Tendler. They are the undisputed authorities on the mental side of poker. Both offer a common sense approach to the mental game and explain their concepts in ways that are easily grasped.

Why is this Book Called “Full Ring Edition”?I loved the full ring Rush poker games and was able to four-table them with relative ease. Thus, I based my 2011 Challenge around them. I also felt, and still do, that full ring is a better starting place for someone looking to methodically build their bankroll.

What Value does this Book Offer a Six-Max Player?A lot. I would say that 98% of the advice in this book is relevant to six-max players. In the end, poker is poker. Fundamentally, it is still a game about making reads and making plays based on those reads. Bankroll management is the same. Focusing on your A-game is the same. Reviewing your sessions

Introduction 5

is the same. Knowing when to bet and when to give up based on constructed ranges is universal across both formats.

So what are the main differences between full ring and six-max?

� There are three more seats to account for. Good players tend to open strong ranges preflop from those seats and that affects how hands play out postflop.

� There are more multi-way situations postflop which makes overall ranges stronger. Many hands which would be considered coolers at six-max (like set-over-set or low flush versus higher flush) aren’t automatically coolers at full ring.

� HUD stats are different. Table 1-2 displays the rough equivalents for regulars in terms of VPIP, Preflop Raise, and Three-Bet.

Nit TAG LAG

Full Ring 9 / 6 / 2 13 / 11 / 4 19 / 16 / 7

Six-Max 16 / 14 / 3 22 / 18 / 5 30 / 25 / 10

Table 1-2. Approximate HUD stats for regulars

� This also means that postflop stats are different. A c-bet percentage of around 55% to 60% is standard for full ring regulars but is closer to 70% in six-max. Other stats vary slightly as well.

What Value does this Book Offer a Heads Up Player?I would not recommend this book to someone who wanted to learn heads up play. Facing a single opponent at the poker table creates a completely different dynamic that is worlds apart from full ring and six-max.

9N I N E

FACING A CONTINUATION BET

O ften times when you call preflop and see a flop, you are going to face a continuation bet. In this section, I will discuss optimal lines to take depending on how strongly you connect with the flop and what reads

you have on your opponent.

Just like in the previous chapter, once the flop is dealt, you should have two goals:

1. Evaluate the strength of your hand.

2. Decide on the most profitable way to play that hand.

Evaluating Hand StrengthRemember that unless you are holding the nuts, the strength of your hand is relative. Here is a rough blueprint for how you should approach a hand when you are not the preflop raiser.


Did you connect with the flop?Most of the time if you miss the flop completely, you are just going to fold and move on to the next hand. This isn’t always the case however. A keen observer will often find profitable situations to float or to bluff (I will touch upon that later.) If you do manage to connect with the board, whether with a made hand or with a draw, you need to consider other factors.

What is your respective position?By default, most players check to the preflop raiser. Therefore, the position of the preflop raiser is important when planning the hand. Moreover, position can be relative just like hand strength. Relative position (with respect to the preflop raiser) comes into play when there are three or more players in the hand.

Check out the following two examples. Both hands involve three players: the cutoff, the button, and the big blind. Stack sizes, stakes, player types, flop textures, and reads are irrelevant in order to illustrate this concept.

Example 1In this example, the Cutoff raises while the Button and Big Blind both call. Most of the time, the Big Blind will automatically check to the Cutoff after the flop. This dynamic is illustrated in figure 9-1.

BB

BTN CO

Acts Last

(PFR)

Acts 1stActs 2nd

checks

Figure 9-1. Position Graph

Facing a Continuation Bet 111

Even though the Button has absolute position, the Big Blind has relative position, assuming that he checks and that the Cutoff bets. Here are a few scenarios with this consideration in effect.

Scenario 1: The Big Blind checks and the Cutoff has to make a decision. If the Cutoff decides to continuation bet the flop, the Button has a decision to make. He can either call, fold, or raise. After he makes his deci-sion, the Big Blind has much more information about the strength of both hands.

Scenario 2: The Big Blind checks and again the Cutoff has a decision to make. Assume that he checks as well. Now the Button has additional information with which to make a decision. Assuming he bets, the Big Blind now has information about the strength of each player's hand.

Scenario 3: What if both the Cutoff and the Button check? Then the players go to the turn and the Big Blind is first to act. But now he has information about both the Cutoff's and the Big Blind's hand. Of course the turn card changes things, but information is information.

Example 2In this example, the Cutoff limps, the Button raises, and both the Big Blind and the Cutoff call. This dynamic is illustrated in figure 9-2.

Once again, the Button has absolute position. But assuming both players check to him and he bets, the Cutoff now has relative position in the hand. He gets to see what the Button and the Big Blind do before he has to make a decision.

BB

BTN CO

Acts 2nd

(PFR)

Acts LastActs 1st

checks

checks

Figure 9-2. Position Graph


3 Betting into the preflop raiser before he has a chance to act is known as a donk bet. Don’t let the name bias you. Good players recognize situations where leading into the preflop raiser is correct.

At any time however, the Big Blind or the Cutoff can donk bet3 into the preflop raiser. Most of the time though, they will just check. When they do, the Button need to be aware of the dynamics of relative position.

What is the flop texture like?The combination of flop texture with the number of opponents should provide some quick insight into the potential strength of another player's hand. Like in the last chapter, I want you to pay attention to two main factors.

� Is the flop wet or dry? Give more respect to players who bet wet flops.

� Are there high cards present (queen, king, or ace)? These are great cards for preflop raisers to continuation bet so keep that in mind.

In general, you should give lots of respect to players who bet into multiple opponents on wet boards with no high cards. Conversely, you should give less respect to players in heads up situations who bet on dry boards with one or two high cards.

What are your reads on the opponent(s)?When dealing with a preflop raiser, the two key stats to pay attention to are Preflop Raise and Flop Continuation Bet. All else being equal, the combination of those two stats should dictate how much respect to give your opponent if they c-bet. This concept is illustrated below (table 9-1).

Low PFR (< 10%) High PFR (≥ 15%)

Low C-Bet (< 45%) Maximum Respect Medium to High Respect

High C-Bet (≥ 65%) Medium to Low Respect Minimum Respect

Table 9-1. Respecting a continuation bet

So although Flop C-Bet trumps Preflop Raise in the respect category, the combination of the two is still very important.


How large are your opponent's bet sizes?You should give more respect the bigger your opponent's bet.

Now comes the fun part—trying to quickly evaluate and assign weight to all the factors I discussed above.

Example OneA 19/17 SLAG raises from the cutoff. The table folds around and you call from the big blind. The flop comes Q♠ 7♦ 2♦. You quickly scan your HUD and see that the villain has a Flop C-Bet of 60%. You check and he bets 65% of the pot.

Here is quick recap of what you should consider.

� This player is loose preflop and since he opened from the cutoff, he is likely to have a very wide range. Checking your stats to see how many steal attempts he has from this specific position will help provide a better feel for his range.

� He is in position and heads up with you. Both of those factors increase the likelihood that he will c-bet a high percentage of the time.

� In general, he tends to c-bet an above average percent of the time.

� This flop texture is not very connected. There is one high card and a flush draw. You should expect this player to c-bet this type of board a high percentage of the time.

Taking everything into account, you should have limited respect for your opponent's continuation bet.

Example TwoA 13/11 TAG raises from UTG+1. A loose-passive player with 75 big blinds calls in middle position. You call on the button and both the blinds fold.

The flop comes J♠ 5♣ 4♣ and the TAG c-bets 75% of pot. His Flop C-Bet stat is a reasonable 50%. The loose-passive player calls.

You should consider the following.

� The flop texture is more wet than it is dry since there are both straight and flush draws.


� The preflop raiser is betting into two other players, both of whom have position on him. He is playing fairly tight preflop and has raised from early position. He doesn’t have a high Flop C-Bet percentage, yet he fired a big bet on the flop. All of these actions signal strength.

� Since the loose-passive player in middle positions called, he has likely connected with this flop. This should increase your requirements for continuing with the hand.

Armed with all this information, you should give these players a lot of respect and proceed only with good draws (eight outs or better) or with good made hands.

Make the Most Profitable PlayOnce you have a basic sense of how strong your opponents are, your next goal is to make the most profitable play. The fundamental steps involved in this decision making process are broken down in the following flowchart (figure 9-3).

Do you likely havethe best hand?

Are you likely to getaction from worse?

Raise

Raise Fold

Call

CallCall/Raise Raise Raise/Call

YES NO

YES NO

How many outsto improve?

6 or less 7 to 10 11 or more

FoldEquity?

GOOD POOR

FoldEquity?

GOOD POOR

FoldEquity?

GOOD POOR

Let me emphasize that this chart is not set in stone. There are other key factors that should play a role in your decision making. These include:

Figure 9-3. Most profitable play flowchart


� Defining the Best Hand Many beginning poker players think of the “best hand” as having the winning hand if they were to go to showdown. However, your mindset should focus on the current equity you have in the hand.

Example: A small pair like 2♣ 2♦ on a J♥ T♥ 3♠ flop is the best hand versus K♥ Q♥ but only holds 28% equity with two cards to come. The next step in thinking would be to consider your equity versus a specific range. That is a fairly complex discussion that I will defer for another time. For now, just think about how many of your opponent's hands you are likely to beat and to stay ahead of.

� Position. You can speculate more when you are in position or closing out the action.

� Stack-to-Pot Ratio. The lower the SPR, the more willing you should be to play your hand fast and aggressively.

� Possible Bad Turn Cards. You should avoid slowplaying the flop when you have a very good hand but a lot of turn cards could kill your action.

Example: You hold J♠ T♠ on a 7♦ 8♣ 9♣ board. Any club, ten, jack, five, or six could kill your action versus someone who might be willing to stack off with two-pair, a set, or a weaker straight. That accounts for 21 out of a possible 47 cards left in the deck. One of those cards will come off roughly 45% of the time.

� Nut versus non nut draws. You should be willing to play nut draws more aggressively than non nut draws. This is especially relevant when you have a low, naked4 flush draw.

Below are two hypothetical examples which illustrate this thought process.

Example OneA recreational player (22/12 over 68 hands) raises from the hijack. You call in the cutoff with T♠ T♦ and everyone else folds. The flop comes 7♥ 5♣ 2♦ and the villain continuation bets a little more than half the pot. You check his Flop C-Bet number and notice that he has c-bet two out of four times.Unfortunately, such a low sample size is inconclusive.

4 A naked hand is one that does not have any other means of improving. For example, 3♣ 2♣ on a Q♣ T♣ 7♦ board qualifies as a naked flush draw since there is no other way to improve the hand (pairing the 2 or 3 is considered irrelevant). In contrast, a hand like J♣ T♣ on a 4♣ 5♣ 9♦ board is anything but naked It holds two overcards and a backdoor straight draw in addition to its flush draw; all of which could possibly improve the hand to a winner.


� Do you likely have the best hand? Yes. The flop is dry and you can expect your opponent to have bet a wide range of hands. This includes many worse value hands such as A5, A7, 88, and 99. The flop is also dry enough for him to continuation bet as a bluff or bet some draws (such as A4, A3, or A♥ Q♥ which has overcards and backdoor flush draws).

� Are you likely to get action from worse? At this point, you just don’t know. But you do know that plenty of better hands will not fold including 22, 55, 77, and JJ – AA.

� What are some bad turn cards? Other than overcards, there aren’t many bad turn cards for you. Even if this player has naked overcards (like QJ or AK), he only has 25% equity versus your tens.

Taking all of these factors into account, you should just call and see a turn with position.

Example TwoA 12/10 TAG raises from UTG, a 14/11 TAG calls in late middle position, and a 24/5 loose-passive player calls on the button. You call with Q♠ J♠ from the big blind.

The flop comes K♦ Q♥ 5♦ and you check. The UTG TAG c-bets around 70%, the other TAG folds, and the loose-passive button calls.

� Do you likely have the best hand? No. Not only is a 12/10’s UTG range very tight to begin with, it also includes many hands which hit this flop hard. Secondly, villain bet strongly into three other players on a draw-heavy flop. This is another sign of major strength.

When the loose-passive button calls as well, it is clear that he connected in some way with this flop. He could have a pair, a straight draw, or a flush draw. At this point, you don’t really have a good idea of his range.

� How many outs to improve? The best possible card for you would be a non-diamond queen. A jack could give another player a better hand (KJ, AT, 9T). So there are really only two cards which improve your had that you can feel good about.

� What is your fold equity like? With a TAG leading into three players and getting one call, don't count on having much fold equity.

When you add up all the variables, check-folding is the best play on this flop.


Example ThreeA 16/12 SLAG raises from the button and you call from the big blind with A♦ T♦. The flop comes 8♣ 7♦ 3♥. You check and the Button, who has a c-bet of 72% over a good sample size, c-bets a standard amount.

� Do you likely have the best hand? Maybe. You have ace-high with a medium kicker.

� How many outs to improve? Any ten, ace, or diamond improves your hand. Although that totals 16 cards, some of those cards might also improve your opponent. You also need to consider that diamonds do not give you a made hand, they simply provide a good draw. So in reality, the true number of outs leans more towards 7 to 10 cards.

� What is your fold equity like? This loose and aggressive button is likely to c-bet a fairly dry flop like this frequently. Therefore, you shouldn’t give his c-bet much respect. Your fold equity in this spot is likely to be above-average.

The combination of having legitimate cards that could improve your hand, being out of position, and possessing reasonable fold equity should make raising here a profitable play. Your raise doesn’t have to be large however. A size 2.5 to 2.75 times the button’s c-bet is more than adequate.

If he calls and you don’t improve on the turn, you should just give up. You can fire again on a diamond or a ten. If an ace hits, the best play would probably be to check-call.

Donk BettingThere are times when it is best to lead into the preflop raiser. This is also known as a donk bet. Many regulars are not used to other regulars donk betting into them. So it is good to have this play in your arsenal while waiting for profitable situations to use it. I'll discuss two such situations below.

1. You have a strong hand against a player that likes to pot control. This becomes especially important in situations where the flop texture is wet.

Example: An unknown player with a 60 big blind stack limps from UTG+1, a TAG raises from MP1, and you call from the big blind with 6♥ 6♣. The flop comes 6♥ 8♣ 9♣. The TAG has a Flop C-Bet percentage of only 40% and you do not want this flop to check through. Any five, seven, or ten on the turn could very well scare away any


worse hands that would have gladly paid to see another card on the flop. In addition, either player could call your lead with a hand that they would rather check. Don't give them the chance.

I also think check-calling this flop is bad given that you'll be out of position for the rest of the hand. Leading looks weaker than check-raising. Plus it ensures that you will receive maximum value from overpairs that are likely to call or to raise your lead but might fold to a check-raise.

2. You have a weak hand and your opponent plays straightforward. Many multi-tabling nits or TAGs are willing to give up on small pots if they miss the flop (which most people do if they open from late position). You can take control of the hand and pick up some dead money by donk betting. It helps if you have some backdoor equity the times you get called.

Example: A 15/12 TAG raises from the cutoff and you call from the big blind with Q♥ J♥. The flop comes 5♥ 7♦ 9♦. You are likely to get credit for hitting a piece of this flop and more often than not, the Cutoff has missed completely. If called, you can pick up additional equity with any ten, king, eight, heart, jack, or queen. Betting now will also fold out plenty of better hands like 33, AT, or KJ.

Below are some additional examples taken from actual hands that I played during my 2011 Challenge. Each features facing a continuation bet.

Hand OneStakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: � MP2 ($10.75) is playing 13/8 over 83 hands and has c-bet twice in two opportunities

� Hero ($10.00) is in MP3

Action: MP2 opens to $0.30 and I call from the hijack with K♥ Q♥. The flop comes A♥ Q♦ 2♣ and MP2 bets $0.40 into $0.75. I call. The turn is the 7♥ and my opponent bets again, this time $0.70 into $1.55. I call again and watch the 8♦ roll off on the river.

This time the villain checks and I take my hand to showdown. He flips over Q♦ J♣ and I win the $2.95 pot.

Analysis: Preflop, I think calling is much better than three-betting versus this player. The flop texture is great for him to c-bet and I would expect most


players to bet their full range in this spot. Since I have good showdown value and lots of backdoor draws, the flop is an easy call.

I improve on the turn and call again facing a small bet. On the river, I don't expect any worse hands to call or any better hands to fold if I bet. So I just take my hand to showdown.

Hand TwoStakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: � UTG ($9.50)

� MP2 ($10.24) is playing 17/14 over 354 hands with a Flop C-Bet of 91% (11)and a Turn C-Bet of 0% (3)

� Hero ($10.10) is on the BTN

Action: UTG limps, MP2 isolates to $0.50, I call on the BTN with J♥ J♣, and everyone else folds. The flop comes T♦ 6♣ 2♥. Villain c-bets $0.65 into $1.25 and I call. The turn is the 2♠ and now my opponent checks. I bet $1.60 into $2.55 and he folds.

Analysis: I called preflop for two reasons:

1. I wanted to keep the weaker limper in the pot.

2. I wanted to play my strong hand versus the regular’s wide isolation range.

Notice that this villain’s stats are a textbook example of exploitable postflop play. He is loose preflop, bets just about every flop, and has yet to bet the turn. There is little value in raising this flop other than to fold out a potential six-out hand like KQ (which often only has 13% equity).

The turn is the ultimate blank card and I bet my hand for value.

Hand ThreeStakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: � UTG ($7.33) is playing 20/12 over 50 hands

� Hero ($14.98) is in the BB


Action: UTG raises to $0.30 preflop and I call with 7♥ 7♣ in the BB. I flop the nuts on a 7♠ 3♥ 2♥ board and check. Villain bets $0.40 into $0.65 and I check-raise to $1.10. He moves all-in and I call. Villain shows Q♥ Q♠ and fails to improve.

Analysis: Preflop is an easy call from the big blind versus a loose-passive’s UTG raise. I flop the nuts and face a c-bet. This is not a good spot to slowplay since a lot of turns could bring scare cards to slow down the villain’s aggression.

Since I am out of position, I want to take the lead in the hand and make sure I build a pot by the river. He makes the rest of the hand easy for me by moving all-in.

Hand Four: Stakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: � BTN ($56.37) is playing 9/8 over 326 hands and has c-bet 8 out of 10 times on the flop and 2 out of 3 times on the turn

� Hero ($10.05) is in the BB

Action: Villain raises from the BTN to $0.30 and I call in the BB with A♠ 8♠. The flop comes Q♠ 8♥ 2♠. With $0.65 in the pot, I check to the villain who fires a c-bet of $0.50. I check-raise him to $1.60 and he folds.

Analysis: Even though this player is very tight preflop, I should expect his button raising range to still be wide. Since I am closing out the action from the big blind with a playable hand, I call preflop.

On the flop, I raise because:

� I have the nut draw and could get action from weaker flush draws or straight draws.

� I build a pot for the times I improve.

� I am a favorite versus most value hands (like KQ or KK) that my opponent has on the flop.

If my opponent had three-bet this flop, I would have moved all-in and played for stacks for reasons one and three above.


Hand Five: Stakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: � UTG ($22.30) is new to the table

� Hero ($16.30) is in MP1

� BTN ($37.04) is playing 21/7 over 86 hands and has folded to 2 out of 6 c-bets he has faced

� BB ($10.20) is 14/7 over 266 hands and has folded to 3 out of 4 c-bets

Action: UTG raises to $0.30 and I call in MP1 with A♣ Q♣. The BTN and the BB follow. The flop comes Q♥ T♠ 5♥. After the BB checks, UTG bets $0.65 into $1.25. I call, the BTN calls, and the BB folds.

The 9♠ comes on the turn and UTG checks. I bet $1.20 into $3.20, the BTN calls, and UTG folds. The river brings the K♥. I check, the BTN bets $2.40 into $5.60, and I fold.

Analysis: Preflop, my suited hand plays well in position versus an unknown player with whom I am over 160 big blinds deep. Any draw I flop will be a nut draw and any trips will either be the nuts or second nuts.

On the flop, the villain fires a small bet into three opponents on a wet board. With two players still left to act, my best option is calling. If anyone comes in for a raise I can comfortably fold.

The turn completes two straight draws but I am still ahead of plenty of hands. Once the original raiser checks, I put out a blocker bet. When the button calls again and UTG folds, I expect to have the best hand heading to the river.

The river card completes every draw and I check-fold.

Hand Six: Stakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: � UTG+1 ($10.00) is playing 12/9 over 428 hands with a 62% (13) Flop C-Bet but no sample on his Turn C-Bet

� Hero ($10.00) is in the CO

� SB ($10.96) is playing 8/3 over 42 hands


Action: UTG+1 raises to $0.35 and I call in the CO with J♥ T♥. The SB calls and the BB folds.

The flop comes T♦ 9♣ 2♠. UTG+1 bets $0.70 into $1.15. I call and the SB folds. The turn brings the 2♦, pairing the board. Villain bets again, this time $1.50 into a pot of $2.55. I fold.

Analysis: I call with a mid suited connector preflop in late position knowing that the remaining players are tight and have essentially no history of three-betting between them. On the flop, the regular fires a standard c-bet into two people. With top pair and backdoor straight draws, I call in position. When I don’t improve on the blank turn and he fires again, I fold.

When the villian fires again on the turn, I fold for the following reasons.

� The villian is tight preflop and opened from an early position.

� He fired into two opponents on the flop and continued his aggression on a blank turn. He should perceive this turn card as having minimum fold equity. Therefore when he bets it, his range is heavily weighted toward hands that have top pair beat.

� The 2♦ also counterfeits three potential outs. If a jack falls on the river and the villain has QQ – AA, his two-pair still beats my two-pair. Thus, with limited perceived outs to improve, I fold.

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