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Table of contents

Table of contents ..................................................................................................................................... 1

The pharmaceutical market: An introduction............................................................................................ 3

The global scenario:............................................................................................................................. 3

Scenario of the Indian pharmaceutical market: ..................................................................................... 4

Industry structure (segmentation) ..................................................................................................... 4

India pharmaceutical market segmentation: %share, by value .............................. ...................... ....... 5

Macro economic factors influencing the industry ................................................................................. 5

The PESTEL framework.................................................................................................................. 5

Company analysis.................................................................................................................................... 7

Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 7

Company overview .............................................................................................................................. 7

Geographic presence: ........................................................................................................................... 9

The DNA of sustainability ................................................................................................................. 10

Strategy ................................................................................................................................................. 15

Strategic positioning: SWOT analysis ................................................................................................ 17

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The pharmaceutical market: An introduction

The modern pharmaceutical industry is a highly competitive non-assembled global industry. Itsorigins can be traced back to the nascent chemical industry of the late nineteenth century in theUpper Rhine Valley near Basel, Switzerland when dyestuffs were found to have antisepticproperties.

The global scenario:

Emerging markets are set to play a pivotal role in future pharmaceutical success: Currently,emerging pharmaceutical markets are typically small. However, their rapid growth vis--vis themore regulated markets make them attractive prospects for the pharmaceutical industry. Rapidlygrowing economies, increasing population and greater health awareness combined with largerincomes to spend on healthcare will drive the growth of pharmaceuticals in emerging markets.By 2017, IMS forecasts revenues from emerging markets at US$ 290 billion to US$ 320 billion,with a CAGR of 12% to 15%.Therapy area growth dynamics will be driven by innovation cycles and unmet needs:

As the pharmaceutical industrys research and development (R&D) programs adjust to creatinglow-cost generic options in many chronic therapy areas, higher growth will occur in those areaswhere there is significant unmet clinical need. In oncology, diabetes, multiple sclerosis and HIV,annual growth is expected to exceed 10% right up to 2014, as new drugs are brought to market,patient access is expanded and funding is redirected from other areas where lower-cost genericstake over.

Transition from small molecules to big molecules, or the expansion of Biologics in

developed markets; and branded and off-patent small molecule medicines in fast growing

emerging markets:In the developed markets of the US, Europe and Japan, the industry is perceptibly moving awayfrom the small molecule driven sales model, towards targeting specialist secondary care

indications through the use of high-value biologic therapies. The key driver of sales growth up toyear 2014 will be injectable biologic therapies for the treatment of more secondary careindications. In emerging markets, branded and off-patent medicines will continue to dominate,with occasional breakthroughs and revenue spikes coming from Biologics. Primary care drugswill still drive sales in these markets, with medicines for infectious diseases and endocrine /metabolic disorder experiencing the largest growth.Mergers, acquisitions and strategic partnerships are here to stay:

In line with recovery from the global economic downturn, the number of M&A and strategicdeals has been on the rise throughout the second half of 2009. While neither M&A nor strategic partnerships can totally offset sales declines from the impending patent cliff of 2011, thesepartnerships and mergers will offer improved profitability because of higher combined sales, cost

saving opportunities and operational synergies.

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Scenario of the Indian pharmaceutical market:

Indian companies have recognized the opportunity presented by western pharma in search oflower costs and higher profits, and are exploiting the low cost base and pool of highly skilledlabour in their market to develop a thriving outsourcing industry, positioning India as a keyprovider of contract research and manufacturing services.

The Indian pharmaceutical market has seen a CAGR of about 14% in the last five years. Itcontinues to be highly fragmented anddominated by Indian companies. The domestic pharmaceutical industry grew by 18% in March2010 (ORGs moving annual total, or MAT) versus 10% in March 2009. Acute therapydominates, with a share of over 75% of the total market value. The chronic segment hasregistered a growth of 21%, versus 16% in the acute segment. Anti-infectives grew by 14%,respiratory and dermatology by 21%, cardiac by 21% and CNS by 20%. The Government of

Indias Vision 2015 statement indicates an 18% plus CAGR for the pharmaceutical sector,translating to a doubling of revenues over the next five years. According to this report, growthwill be driven by all verticals: domestic formulations, generics exports, and outsourcing. By2015, the report expects specialty and super-specialty therapies to account for 45% of the market.Growing lifestyle disorders, particularly metabolic disorders like diabetes, obesity andhypertension, coronary heart disease, cardiovascular, neuropsychiatry and oncology drugs arelikely to gain significance.

Industry structure (segmentation)

Alimentary/Metabolism sales generated 13.8% of the Indian pharmaceutical markets overall

revenues. Cardiovascular sales generated 11.9% of the markets aggregate revenues.

Japan, 53.8China, 19.1

Rest Of Asia

Pacific,10.6

India, 8.7

South Korea, 7.7

% Share

JapanChina

Rest Of Asia Pacific

India

South Korea

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CATEGORY %SHARE

Other therapeutic purposes 54.70

Alimentary/Metabolism 13.80

Cardiovascular 11.90

Respiratory 10.00

Central Nervous 6.10Oncology 3.50

Total 100.0%

India pharmaceutical market segmentation: %share, by value

Macro economic factors influencing the industry

The effect of macro economic variables on the industry can be better understood by carrying outthe PESTEL analysis. In this method of analysis, we would be understanding the political,economic, socio-cultural, environmental and legal aspects which would impact the industry.

The PESTEL framework

Other

therapeutic

purposes

55%

Alimentry/Metab

olism

14%

Cardiovascular

12%

Respiratory

10%

Central Nervous

System

6%

Oncology

3%

% Share

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Political factors

Over the years, the industry has witnessed increased political attention due to increasedrecognition of the economic importance of healthcare as a component of social welfare. Political

interest has also been generated because of the increasing social and financial burden ofhealthcare. Also, uncertainty in the political environment also impacts the investments and theinvestor confidence. The patent act has also impacted the pharmaceutical industry. Thereforedifferent brands of the same medicine were truly different.

Economic factors

The per capita income of the people determines the extent to which people are willing to spendon healthcare. In India, majority of people visit doctors only in case of emergency. Only veryfew percentage of people visit doctors for regular health check ups. Also, in the past decade, thepharmaceutical industry has witnessed high value mergers and acquisitions. Hence, the Indianproducts have started to cater to global markets as well. This has led to rapid development of theindustry. Many companies are looking at African countries as a key strategic market forpharmaceuticals.

Socio cultural factors

In India people prefer using household treatments handed down for generations for commonailments. Though this practice has seen drastic decline in the recent past, it is not completelywiped out yet. The use of magic/tantrics/ozhas/hakims is prevalent in many under developedrural areas. Also, increasing population, increase in pollution have resulted in increased health problems. But the effect of intense media and political attention has resulted in increasedindustry efforts to cater to all segments of the population.

Technological advances

Newer medications for various ailments have been discovered due to improvements intechnology which has led to more efficient research and development. New molecules and activeingredients have been discovered.

Legal factors

The pharmaceutical industry is a highly regulated and compliance enforcing industry. As a resultthere are immense legal, regulatory and compliance overheads which the industry has to absorb.In most of the cases, this tends to restrict its dynamism.

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Company analysis

Introduction

Established in 1984, Dr. Reddys Laboratories (Dr. Reddys or the Company) is an integrated

global pharmaceutical company committed to providing affordable and innovative medicinesthrough its three core businesses:

y Global Generics, which includes branded and unbranded prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) drug products.

y Pharmaceutical Services and Active Ingredients (PSAI), comprising ActivePharmaceutical Ingredients and CustomPharmaceutical Services.

Proprietary Products, comprising Generic Biopharmaceuticals, New Chemical Entities

(NCEs), Differentiated Formulations and a dermatology focused specialty company Promius

TM Pharma. The Company has a strong presence in highly regulated markets such as theUnited States, the United Kingdom, Germany, as well as in emerging markets including India,

Russia, Venezuela, Romania and certain CIS countries

Company overview

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

y Consolidated revenues for 2009-10 were Rs. 70,277 million. Excluding revenues fromsumatriptan Dr. Reddys Authorized Generic version ofImitrex which was launched

in 2008-09 theCompanys overall revenue grew by 9%. In USdollar terms, 2009-10revenue was US$ 1.56billion, compared to US$ 1.37 billion in theprevious year. It maybe noted that the Companysrevenue has been rising at a CAGR of 23% overthe last 10years.

y Adjusted EBITDA of Rs. 15,828 million is highest among pharmaceutical companies inIndia in the year 2009-10.

y Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) at 17% for 2009-10 as against 14% in 2008-09.Thisincrease is attributable to: Core business growth of India, Russia and North America; Rationalization of business model; and Cost optimization and restructuring initiatives.

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BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS

y In the US market, 2009 saw Dr. Reddys enter the list of the Top 10 genericcompanies.The Company has broken into the Top 10 league by improving its marketshare from 2.1% to 2.7%. This is a significant milestone, and corroborates Dr. Reddyslonger term target of becoming a leading generics player in the US. At 6.5%, theCompanys growth in the US generics market was one percentage point higher than theaverage growth recorded by all the generic firms in the industry. In doing so, Dr. Reddysachieved a prescription growth of 40%. Nine new products were launched in the US

generics market in 2009-10, including one over the counter (OTC) product. The keylaunches include nateglinide, omeprazole magnesium (OTC), metformin glyburide andfluoxetine DR.

y India & Russia, both key emerging markets for the Company, registered impressiveperformance.In India, branded formulation revenues grew by20% to Rs. 10,158 million.New product revenuescontributed to 5% of total revenues from Indiaformulations. TheCompanys new product rank improved from 25th in 2008-09 to 8th in 2009-10. InRussia, Dr. Reddys revenues grew by 25% out-performing market growth of 8% invalueterms .

y Germany-Ongoing healthcare reforms and changing marketdynamics continue to causepricing pressures, leading to low margins. To remain competitive in this scenario, the

Company has rationalized its field force and moved towards a lean operatingmodel. In2009-10, the Company recorded a one-time charge of Rs. 912 million related to termination benefits payable to a set of identified employees. Moreover, the results ofadditional tenders in Germany led to further deterioration in the market dynamics,thereby resulting in theCompany recording an impairment loss of:

Rs. 2,112 million for the product related intangibles. Rs. 5,147 million towards carrying value of goodwill, and

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Rs. 1,211 million towards the trademark /brand, beta, which forms asignificant portion of the betapharm cash generating unit.

y Successful audits of the Companys formulations and chemical plants 2009-10 sawsuccessful US Food and DrugAuthority (USFDA) audits of the Companysformulation plants at Bachupally, Hyderabad and Vishakapatnam, the ANVISA audit of the

formulation plant at Vishakapatnam and theMHRA audit of the chemical plants.y Product pipeline continues to show impressive growth potential

The Company has filed 158 cumulative Abbreviated New Drug Applications(ANDAs) up to date. As on 31 March 2010, there were 73 ANDAs pendingapproval at the USFDA, of which 38 are Para-IV filings and 12 have thestatus of first to file.

It has filed 19 Drug Master Files (DMFs) in the US during the year, taking thetotal filings to156. It also filed five DMFs in Canada, eight in Europe, andfour in the Rest of the World(RoW).

In addition, Dr. Reddys has generated a sound near-term pipeline of limitedcompetition / high margin opportunities of generic products and biosimilars.

Dr. Reddys and Rheoscience announced the first Phase III clinical trial ofBalaglitazone(DRF 2593) with results of significant reductionin HbA1c(glycosylated haemoglobin) and improved safety profile.

Geographic presence:

Dr. Reddys markets its products in approximately 100 countries, focusing on the US, Europe,India and Russia.

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Dr Reddy's Laboratories in the European Union (EU):

In 2005-06, Dr. Reddys generated a revenue of EUR 80.27 million from Europe, whichaccounted for 18 per cent of the companys total revenue.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories inG

ermanyIn March 2006, Dr. Reddys acquired Betapharm Arzneimittel GmbH from 3i for EUR 480million. This is one of the largest-ever foreign acquisitions by an Indian pharmaceuticalcompany. Betapharm, Germanys fourth-largest generics pharmaceutical company employs morethan 350 personnel. Its turnover amounted to EUR 186 million in 2005. It commands a share ofapproximately 3.5 per cent in the German pharmaceutical market. Betapharm has a reputed teamof experienced regulatory experts who maintain harmonious relationship with EU authorities.The acquisition of this company is expected to help Dr. Reddys emerge as one of the leadinggenerics players in Europe.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories in the UK

In March 2002, Dr. Reddys acquired BMS Laboratories, Beverley, and its wholly ownedsubsidiary Meridian Healthcare, for EUR 14.81 million. These companies deal in oral solids,liquids and packaging, with manufacturing facilities in London and Beverley in the UK.Recently, Dr.Reddys entered into an R&D and commercialization agreement with ArgentaDiscovery Ltd, a private drug development company based in the UK, for the treatment ofCOPD.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories in other EU CountriesApart from subsidiaries in Germany, and the UK, Dr. Reddys has agreements in the followingEU countries: Denmark:Dr. Reddys entered into a 10-year agreement with Rheoscience A/S of Denmark for the jointdevelopment and commercialization of Balaglitazone (DRF-2593), a molecule for the treatmentof type-2 diabetes. Rheoscience will hold this products marketing rights for the EU and China,while the rights for the US and the rest of the world will be held by Dr. Reddys. Ireland:Dr. Reddys conducted clinical trials of its cardiovascular drug RUS 3108 in Belfast, Ireland, in2005.The trials were conducted to study the safety and the pharmacokinetic profiles of the drug,which is intended for the treatment of atherosclerosis, a major cause of cardiovascular disorders. The Netherlands:Dr. Reddys entered into a marketing agreement with Eurodrug Laboratories, a pharmaceuticalcompany based in Netherlands, for improving its product portfolio for respiratory diseases. Itintroduced a second-generation xanthine bronchodilator, Doxofylline, which is used for thetreatment of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients.

The DNA of sustainability

At Dr. Reddys, Sustainability is a way of life and is embedded in their purpose. It is a broadconcept which encompasses how they value their employees, social impact of their products, patient centric programs, proactive safety, health and environment (SHE) management,

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implementation of communitydevelopment projects and voluntary engagementwith the societyto address larger social concernslike livelihood and education.Their awareness of sustainabilityoriginates from the social benefits of their business. They have come to understand theinterdependence (as against independence) of their stakeholders and this has encouraged theirsimultaneous pursuit ofa people, purpose and planet approach. For theirorganization to be truly

sustainable, they have tobe distinctive in a few areas, while being good atmost activities thatthey do. They believe that theirstrategy of Leveraging industry-leading science& technology, product offering, and customer service with execution excellence to provide affordable andinnovative medicines for healthier lives will help them focus on the right areas. In practicingsustainability, their initial efforts werefocused on environment management and safety& healthat the workplace. As their organizationevolved, so has been their sustainability thinking.Today,while considering issues that are of significance to their stakeholders as well as to theorganization, they have arrived at a robustsustainability framework with six key focus areasProviding affordable and innovative medicines, being an employer of choice, environmentalmanagement and climate change, caring for communities, sustainable sourcing and productresponsibility.

y PROVIDING AFFORDABLE AND INNOVATIVE MEDICINESAt Dr. Reddys, a company with a significant global footprint, they have a seriousresponsibility to help reduce the burden of disease on individuals and on the world.They achieve this by leveraging their proficiency in science and technology to innovate at

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every stage of their processes. Their Pharmaceutical Services and Active Ingredients(PSAI) and Global Generics businesses focus on affordability by providing lower cost,high quality alternatives while their Proprietary Products business addresses unmet andpoorly met medical needs.

y ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT & CLIMATE CHANGEThey are working towards maintaining a harmonious relationshipwith the environment,which calls upon them to engage ethicallywith their stakeholders and to do everything intheir power to reduce their ecological footprint. Their mandate now, is every newproduct should have a sensible footprint. Efforts are on to achieve asuitable blend ofenergy conservation, use of renewable sourcesof energy, water conservation, control ongeneration, disposal ofhazardous waste and green chemistry.

y BEING AN EMPLOYEROF CHOICEThey believe collaboration and teamwork enhances performance and drives innovation.They work as One Team, collectively ideating, innovating and interacting. At Dr.Reddys, they offer a conducive working environment that taps ones potential to the

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fullest while offering them the freedom to question, innovate and find that better way.This has gone a long way in earning them the trust of their employees and in making theiremployees proud to work with them.

y PRODUCT RESPONSIBILITYThe trust of patients and doctors is crucial to their business. They ensure there is No scope for error in anything they do by addressing quality management, regulatorycompliance, product safety requirements and putting in stringent procedures for packaging to protect patient safety. They are adopting a Quality by Design (QbD)approach where it is no longer enough to do a quality check at the end of the process.Their aim is to ensure that every step in their process is done first time right.

y SUSTAINABLE SOURCINGTheir Business Partners are important stakeholders and working with them provides themoperational flexibility and cost advantage. However, they are the ones responsible forsocial, economic and environmental impacts of their entire value chain. Throughsustainable sourcing, they try to influence them to adhere to best practices in humanrights, ethics, health & safety, environment and other related management systems. Their

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mantra has been nurturethem, and let them grow, as ultimately their growth is linked totheirs.

y CARING FORCOMMUNITIESTo progress and provide for the community around themand to benefit individuals andsociety at largeare their focus areas in sustainablecommunity development. Caring forcommunities is a part of their values statement. They channel their wide network ofsocial activitiesthrough Dr. Reddys Foundation (DRF), address health educationneedsand patient care activities through Dr. Reddys Foundation for Heath Education(DRFHE) and create positive impact on communities through Corporate SocialResponsibility (CSR) teams in each location.

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Strategy

The Companys strategy is to combine industry leading science and technology, product offeringand customer service with execution excellence to provide affordable and innovative medicinesfor healthier lives. The key elements of Dr. Reddys strategy include:

y STRENGTHENINGOF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYThe Companys strengths in science and technology range from synthetic organicchemistry, formulation development, biologics development to small molecule baseddrug discovery. Such expertise enables the creation of unique competitive advantageswith an industry leading Intellectual Property (IP) and technology leveraged productportfolio.

y OFFERINGSGlobal Generics

Geographic diversification, cost containment, strengthening the product portfolio andbuilding scale at Dr. Reddys are strong in all these aspects in the generics space. Theyare now the fourth largest player in Germany after the acquisition of betapharm, and areconstantly looking for opportunities to maximize the potential of current and futureportfolio in different territories across the US and EU. They have the necessary expertisefor customer-specific packaging, compliance packaging, and anti-counterfeit packaging

Branded Generics- The Company seeks to have a portfolio that is stronglydifferentiated and offers compellingadvantages to doctors and patients.

Dr. Reddys brands are today recognized and trusted across several continents. Brandslike Omez (Omeprazole), Nise (Nimesulide), Stamlo (Amlodipine), Ciprolet(Ciprofloxacin), Enam (Enalapril) and Ketorol (Ketorolac) are leaders in their categoryin several countries, with many of them being used by more patients than use theinnovators product. Over 1.5 million patients across the world take Omez for theiracid peptic disorders every single day! Entrepreneurship, coupled with the will to make adifference drives 2,000-strong field force to reach out to over 210,000 doctors and115,000 pharmacies in more than 40 countries across the world

Unbranded Generics- It aims to ensure that its customers pharmacy chainsand distributors are first tomarket the Companys products; and that theyhave high product availability combined with low inventories resulting in

superior inventory turns while addressing the customers needs. Verticalintegration and process innovation ensures that the Companys productsremaincompetitive.

PSAI

PSAI (Pharmaceuticals Services and Active Ingredients) business, which comprises the ActivePharmaceutical Ingredients (API) and Custom Pharmaceutical Services (CPS)businesses, we

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offer Intellectual Property advantaged, speedy product development and cost-effectivemanufacturing services to our customers - both generic companies and innovators.

Active pharmaceutical ingredients:

Dr. Reddy's offers an unparalleled portfolio to their clients, who include innovators andgeneric formulators worldwide. With a strong product portfolio of more than 140 products,including niches like oncology and hormones, and their first in, last out approach, it is littlewonder that they are today the third ranked API player globally. Our goal is always to enableour customers to be the first to launch a generic product and to provide value added servicesto help them remain competitive and profitable for the entire life cycle of the product. Wehave built the capabilities to consistently deliver on this promise in scale and across thelargest product range.

A highly skilled global team focuses on timely delivery of products, product development,technology leadership, cost competitiveness, the highest levels of customer service, and fullcompliance with regulatory and quality requirements.

Dr. Reddy's API business is supported by their technologically advanced ProductDevelopment infrastructure, which identifies new products and is engaged every step of theway, from the conceptual stage to delivery of drugs to the market place. The Product DeliveryTeams, the Centres of Excellence and IP teams help create value through IntellectualProperty and proactive patenting; early development work on certain promising molecules;breakthrough product delivery; and by delivering cost leadership in API.

CUSTOM PHARMACEUTICAL SERVICES:

In an industry cluttered with chemical manufacturers, CPS stands out because of understanding

of the pharmaceutical business and the associated expertise needed. Rather than just being achemical provider, CPS offers a service mix covering the entire pharmaceutical value chain.

They execute cost-effective and time-bound projects for customers, and provide them withcGMP-compliant products manufactured in FDA-inspected, ISO-certified facilities. A team ofexperienced project managers ensures smooth progress of projects from initiation to closure inorder to avoid any cost and time overruns.

Proprietary Products

Dr.Reddys Specialty Pharmaceuticals business deals with assets like acquired proprietary technologies,

internally developed proprietary drug-delivery platforms, and current internal compounds under pre-clinical and clinical development. Their initial global therapeutic area focus is on dermatology and

oncology, two therapeutic areas that best leverage their internal assets. A key component of the

strategy in this area is a strong, targeted business development effort to accelerate market entry.

Differentiated Formulations- The Companys emerging DifferentiatedProducts portfolio, which comprises ofnew, synergistic combinations as well

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as technologies that improve safety and / or efficacy by modifying pharmacokinetics of existing medicines, is focused on significant clinicallyunmet needs. The Company is also investigating new indications for existingmedicines.

New Chemical Entities (NCEs)- The Company is also focused in thediscovery, development, and commercialization of novel small moleculeagents in therapeutic areas of bacterial infections, metabolic disorders, andpain / inflammation.

Generic Biopharmaceuticals-The Company aims to deliver equivalents of proprietary biopharmaceuticals as affordable alternatives through processdevelopment aswell as relevant clinical research.

Strategic positioning: SWOT analysis

STRENGHTS

y Wholly owned subsidiaries in US and Europey Joint ventures in China and South Africay Markets pharmaceutical products in 115 countriesy Partnerships with global pharmaceutical companies like Novartis, NOVO Nordisk, etc.y Strong product portfolioy Manufacture and market over 250 medicines targeting a wide range of therapiesy Wide range of anti-cancer drugs developedy Over 100 APIs developedy Six New Chemical Entitiesy Low cost base contributes to companys high profit margin of around 34% of salesy Partnerships with key players in the market keeps its cost base downy Research Driven & Global Talenty Expertise in developing innovative product formulationsy 6120 employees worldwide including 951 scientists in which 323 are dedicated towards

new drug discovery research

.WEAKNESSES:

y High amount of revenues from overseasy India - a rich source of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), hence major source of

revenue is exports of APIs. May loose out to western world, especially Europe, where

currency is much more stable than the Indian Rupee

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y Over-reliance on partnershipsy In order to compete effectively in global markets, strategic partnerships required to

develop products.

y Lack of resources similar to US and Europe based competitors to develop a drug tomarketing stage

y Generic drugs smallest focusy Smallest portion of revenues from generics at around 20%y Lack of patent legislation in India harms sales of its products

.

OPPORTUNITIES:

y In global generics segment, the US generic business is expected to deliver stronger performance with at least one limited competition product opportunity expected tocome up each year. The company is expected to see growth in sales due toimplementation of replenishment based supply chain model. In biologics, the niche

segment of Indian business the company is planning to launch new products.

y Product Portfolio: The groups major product lines include antibiotics, pain relievers,ulcer medicines, antidepressants and cardiovascular drugs, that are all well-suited toWestern and middle-income markets. Dr Reddys does not produce a significant ARVportfolio, and in this sense lags behind Indian rivals such as Ranbaxy, Cipla and Matrix.

THREATS:

y Health care reforms across the globe.y Germanys tender modely US healthcare reforms in the biologics spacey Russia reference pricingy Price controls in Indiay Regulatory and compliance (i.e. rising audit burdens, inspections and fines Proprietary

products

y Genericsy Foreign exchange fluctuationsy Launch at risk