Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

Improving Air Quality in the enlarged EU: Workshop on Plans and Programmes of

Air Quality and National Emission Ceilings Directives

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change

policies and energy policies, in Italy

Giuliana Gasparrini1, Mario Contaldi2, Tiziano Pignatelli3, Giovanni Vialetto3

1Ministry for the Environment and Territory 2APAT – Agency for the Protection of the Environment and the Territory3ENEA - Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

Goals of the Lisbon Agenda Full employment, Economic growth, Sustainable development

Climate Change constraintsKyoto Protocol Targets on GHG emissions

International Framework

NEC Directive Requirements

Gothenburg Protocol Targets

Local and Regional Environmental Constraints

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

2004 Updated estimations of Economic Growth indicators in Italy (energy data estimated by MARKAL - Trend Energy Scenario)

Time range1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

GDP 3,6% 2,3% 1,6% 1,8% 2.0% 1.5%

Primary Energy 2,1% 1,1% 1,3% 1.2% 0,8% 0,4%

GDP energy intensity -1,5% -1,2% -0,3% -0,6% -1,2% -1,1%

Oil price(constant currency) 0% 1% 2%

Conservative assumptions in respect to the Lisbon Agenda goals

Yearly average changes (%)

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

CO2 Emissions (provisional results by MARKAL - Trend Energy Scenario)*

Year 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2 from energy, IPCC-OECD meth. Mton 408 437 446 476 503 508 518 530

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(M

ton

/y)

National Allocation Plan (Directive 2003/87/EC)

* to be revised according the new data collected through a bottom-up approach

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

Thermoelectric Prod., year 2001, g CO2 / KWh

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

NEC Pollutant Emission Scenarios

1) Developed through Integrated Assessment Modelling. The RAINS-Italy Model, developed on behalf of the Italian Ministry for the Environment and the Protection of the Territory, within a joint Research Project ENEA-IIASA.

2) Based upon a coherent national framework: the National Energy Scenario, by the Markal-Italy model, the projections of the activity levels and the abatement technologies, (according the provisions of the Current Legislation (CLE Scenarios)

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

NOx Emission Scenario (CAFE Programme, April 2004)

Provisional estimates by Markal based on updated economic growth assumptions, still in progress, show a slight increase of NOx emissions in the 2010-2030 period.

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

SOx Emission Scenario (CAFE Programme)

Provisional estimates by Markal based on updated economic growth assumptions, still in progress, don’t show any effect on SOx emissions.

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

NH3 Emission Scenario (CAFE Programme)

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

VOC Emission Scenario (National Programmes, 2003)

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

Expected reduction of NOx emissions from additional measures, as considered in the National Programme

Ship – introduction of low NOx ship engines

Road transport – introduction of incentives for private and public fleets renewal, for low or zero emissions vehicles (NG and LPG fuelled, hybrid and electric vehicles), and disincentives to limit the private traffic in urban areas etc

Industrial processes – implementation of IPPC Directive and introduction of the limit values stated in the Gothenburg Protocol

Energy sector – improving energy efficiency in the end use and diffusion of renewable to implement Kyoto Protocol

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

Expected reduction of NH3 emissions from additional measures, as considered in the National Plan

Agricultural sector

– diffusion of abatement emission systems into the livestock farms,

- reduction in the use of nitrogen fertilisers,

- diffusion of less emissive systems in the manure spreading

- Measures expected from the implementation of the IPPC Directive, the Gothenburg Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

Conclusions

The environmental pillar of sustainable development should be fully integrate with the economic and social ones in order to ensure that relevant objectives and strategies are set up consistently.

In the case of the Kyoto Protocol strategy the use of flexible mechanisms and EU ETS for compliance purposes is consistent with this approach.

In the case of NECs directive the range of instruments for compliance is limited in respect to the Kyoto Protocol.

Furthermore the 2010 emission ceilings could result rather ambitious in respect to the economic growth expectations of Member States according to national circumstances.

Possibly, an underestimation of emissions projects, linked to socio-economic factors when 2010 NECs were defined, could bring to additional efforts and costs, not considered when the directive was approved, will be requested.

 

Brussels, 1-2 September 2004

The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy

Conclusions

The revision of the NEC directive already in progress in the context of the CAFE gives the opportunity to improve the process in particular giving more consideration to input data and trends provided by Member States.

It’s essential for a balanced decisional process that all the scenarios produced during the revision process of the NEC Directive (based both on EU and national data and trends) are equally considered.