bruce short 2012 mid-year update

15

Upload: chione

Post on 23-Mar-2016

52 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

DESCRIPTION

BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update . Return on Investment. MSN Money.com, Case Shiller. Existing Home Sales. 12,474 Homes Sell Every Day and 8,346 Buyers Receive a Mortgage. NAR 3/2012. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales. NAR. Pending Home Sales. NAR 3/2012. Pending Home Sales. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update
Page 2: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

BRUCE SHORT

2012 Mid-Year Update

Page 3: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

Return on Investment

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

20.8

1

-22.7

34.2

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate

January 2000 – May 2012

Page 4: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

Existing Home Sales

12,474 HomesSell Every Dayand 8,346 Buyers Receive a Mortgage

NAR 3/2012

Page 5: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

NAR

40%37%

31% 30% 29%31% 30%

28% 29%32%

35% 34%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

Page 6: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

Pending Home Sales

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

NAR 3/2012

Page 7: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

Pending Home Sales

NAR 04/2012

82.0

87.0

92.0

97.0

102.0

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Page 8: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

Paul Diggle, property economist, Capital Economics“The increase in households’ confidence in the outlook for the housing market, coupled with a gradual improvement in the pace of the economic recovery, should drive a rise in home sales later this year.”

Doug Duncan, chief economist, Fannie Mae“Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes. Americans’ rental price expectations for the next year continue to rise, reaching their record high level for our survey this month. With an increasing share of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates and home prices over the next 12 months, some may feel that renting is becoming more costly and that homeownership is a more compelling housing choice.”

Page 9: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

Celia Chen, director of housing economics, Moody’s “The residential property market is recovering, as the factors underlying demand and supply strengthen. Even after accounting for unusual seasonal patterns brought on by the unusually warm winter, conditions have not been this strong since the government ended homebuyer tax credits in 2010.”

Mark Fleming, chief economist, CoreLogic“Since the peak in home prices, mortgages rates have declined and affordability has risen dramatically. Housing affordability is at levels not seen since prior to the early 1990s …While real estate professionals often say that “now is a good time to buy,” it is clear today that April 2006 was probably not a good time to buy, while now may well be the time.”

Page 10: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

“I was one of the most negative on housing. I finally came to the conclusion housing looks like a decent place to put money over the next several years…For those of you renting or on the sidelines, I recommend you at least consider getting ‘back in’ and buying a house.”

Mark Kiesel, the PIMCO managing director who just purchased a home.

Page 11: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom.”

Ivy Zelman, renowned housing analyst nicknamed ‘Poison Ivy’ for her harsh positions on housing over the last several years.

Page 12: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

Bears Turn BullIndustry Analyst 2006-2007 Today

ChristopherThornberg

Declares:“Housing is by no means done. The worst is in front of us,

not behind us.”

“Now is a great time to buy a home.”

John Talbott

Authors the best-seller“Sell Now: the End of the Housing Bubble”

“It is now time to buy a home.”

Ivy Zelman

Nicknamed ‘Poison Ivy’ for her harsh positions on housing.

“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom.”

Mark Kiesel

Declares: “Housing is the next Nasdaq bubble.”

Sold his home.

Suggests others do what he just did: buy a home

Page 13: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

3.75

4

4.25

4.5

4.75

5

5.25

Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed

Federal Reserve

1/01/2011 Today

Page 14: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 3/2012

Page 15: BRUCE SHORT 2012 Mid-Year Update

What you can do to increase your success in 2012

Learn your scripts so that you are prepared for selling opportunities

Focus on your business and prospecting – especially on sellers using your data bank/base; become a geographic farmer; learn the art of holding an open house focusing on listings as well as buyers

Have the courage to an EXPERT! That does not mean you are perfect but you are an expert in your field