bruce palmer scor modeling and simulation case studies copyright 2000 by gensym corp
TRANSCRIPT
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Bruce Palmer
SCOR Modeling
and
Simulation Case Studies
Copyright 2000 by Gensym Corp.
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Introduction
• Supply Chains and e-SCOR
• e-SCOR Quick Tour
• How e-SCOR has been used
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Supply Chain Trends
• Worldwide dispersion of manufacturing and distribution facilities
• Multiple, volatile channels• Responsiveness versus internal efficiency• Lower margins and higher market share• New products, services, and delivery options• Friction-free and Internet-time information flow
Companies are differentiating on the basis of their supply chain models
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What’s Driving Supply Chains Today?
Customers
Capacity /Constraints
Costs
Collaboration /Communication
Change
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How do you make supply-chain decisions?
• Analyze alternative configurations that meet organizational goals– customer service levels
– costs
– capacity
• Build confidence in new configurations (make sure you don’t “break the business”)– responsiveness
– limitations
– financials
• Facilitate communication and coordination among all members of supply chain
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e-SCOR for supply-chain modeling and simulation
• Quickly models all the 5 Cs of the supply chain
• Simulates alternative configurations to:– identify best configuration for achieving critical business goals
– “what-if” analyze supply-chain robustness
– communicate required service levels across chain
– handle constant changes of players and game rules (such as auctions to bid consolidators to future formulas)
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What is e-SCOR?e-SCOR is a software product developed by Gensym for
dynamic modeling and simulation of supply chains. • Implements SCOR including the implementation specific
details
• Provides a time based transaction-level simulation of a supply chain
• Is driven by parameters of the plan, source, make, and deliver functions
• Represents the players, functions, products and resources of a supply chain
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e-SCOR -- Supply Chain Design & Configuration
Where Does e-SCOR Fit In?
Time Horizon
Pla
nn
ing
Lev
el
Strategic
Tactical
Operational
Seconds/Minutes
Hours/Days
Weeks/Months
Quarters Years
exec
utio
npl
anni
ng
Order/WarehouseManagement
Transportation/InventoryManagement
Production Scheduling
Manufacturing & DistributionPlanning
Supply Planning
Demand Planning &Forecasting
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e-SCOR Offers Analysis for Everyone
CFO:How can I dramatically reduce
working capital within our supply chain?… are there any policy or practice changes that
will help?
CEO: What are the best
strategies for adapting our supply-chain to
e-business?
What’s the overall impact of any major
supply-chain configuration changes?
CIO: What kind of
e-communication will improve my multi-
vendor supply chain?
Supply Chain Manager: How can I configure my supply-chain to ensure
the high-levels of performance needed to
succeed within a world of virtual suppliers and
customers?
VP Operations: How will unexpected
delivery delays impact my overall supply-chain
service quality?
Where are the bottlenecks -- and how
can I reduce their impact?
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What are e-SCOR’s Capabilities?
• Development of SCOR models in a graphical user interface
• Animated discrete event simulation of the supply-chain
• Computation and tracking of SCOR standard performance metrics to support comparative analysis and benchmarking
• Support for multiple models, allowing side-by-side comparison of alternative supply-chain configurations, policies, and practices
• Extensibility, enabling development of custom functions and interfaces to real data sources
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e-SCOR Models SCOR Levels 1 to 4...
…and can customize beyond Level 4
Level 1
Level 2 Level 3
Level 4
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e-SCOR Automatically Quantifies Performance
• Inventories– fulfillment
– fill rates
– days of supply
• Times– cycle times
– lead times
– utilization rates
• Financials– cash flows
– asset turns
… and much more
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e-SCOR “Level 1” Roles
e-SCOR aggregates Make, Source, Deliver process categories
into four distinct roles to create Level 1 models
– Base Manufacturer: Front end generator of parts for products
• Make & Deliver categories
– Distributor: Intermediate passer of parts and products
• Source & Deliver categories
– Manufacturer: Turns parts into products
• Source, Make, & Deliver categories
– Consumer: Back end consumer of products
• Source category
S
MD
S D
M DS
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ACME ConsumerSupplier/Distributor
BaseManufacturer
RFQs, POs and $ flow this way
Quotes, Goods and Invoices flow this way
Top-down Graphical Modeling
ACMETaiwan
SemiconductorManufacturer
SemiconductorDistributor
ACMELaptop
LaptopRetailer
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e-SCOR ComponentsSimulationControls
ModelBrowsers
Resources
Process Role Blocks
Process Parameters
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With e-SCOR, You Model Your Level-1 Supply Chain
ACME ConsumerDistributorsBase
Manufacturer
RFQs, POs and $ flow this way
Quotes, Goods and Invoices flow this way
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e-SCOR Creates the Level 2 categories ...
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e-SCOR Creates Levels 3 and 4 as well!
Make Infrastructure
Make to Stock
Make to Order
Engineerto Order
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Define the Products and BOM
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e-SCOR Financials
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e-SCOR Projects
• Electronics Inventory Management• e-Commerce addition• Order Fulfillment• Electronics Distribution
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Hitachi
• Hitachi’s TFT production uses e-SCOR to assess alternative supply-chain configurations with the goals of:– maintaining on-time sourcing
deliveries across varying demands
– lowering inventory costs
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Electronics Inventory Management
• Large Asian electronics manufacturer wants to reduce inventory costs by $50M/year
• Currently use “Push” strategy, running all facilities at full capacity
• Using e-SCOR to explore and compare two approaches– Make adjustments to current strategy
– Undertake major effort to switch to “Pull” strategy
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Electronics Inventory Management
• e-SCOR is enabling manufacturer to quantify value of Push adjustments like:
– More frequent planning cycles
– Requiring suppliers to cut lead times
– Modifying replenishment strategies• Replenishment thresholds
• Re-order quantities
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What if we add the Web to our
distribution channel?
We should expect some erosion in our usual retail
sales.Will we eventually be profitable?
...when?
e-Commerce Addition
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e-SCOR visualized the future...
$(1,000)
$(500)
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
15-Mar 23-Jun 1-Oct 9-Jan 19-Apr
Web Net Retail Net Margin Trend
start web service
retail erosion
web expansion
profitable
web salesoutpace retailweb
retail
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• European communications equipment manufacturer using e-SCOR
• Evaluate suitability of centralizing fulfillment activities
• e-SCOR is quantifying– Cost of facility
– Cost of operations
– Cost of inventory
• e-SCOR is identifying impacts upon manufacturing operations
Order Fulfillment
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• Gensym is helping a North American manufacturer to create an e-SCOR model of its global distribution function
• Decisions such as: Where should inventory be kept to meet desired delivery times and minimize costs?– De-centralize inventory
– Manage multi-point transportation
– Estimate costs
Electronics Distribution