bruce bassett tourism strategy group ministry of economic development presentation to the 2010...
TRANSCRIPT
Bruce BassettTourism Strategy GroupMinistry of Economic Development
Presentation to the 2010 Backpacker Conference
3 September 2010
Measuring the Backpacker Sector – Definition and Trends
Importance of ‘knowing’ your sector
My key take-outs are:
• There is a reasonable amount of data on the backpacker sector
• There are definitions and compatibility issues to be aware of
• There are important information gaps
Finally, I will issue the challenge that the sector itself should be organising to generate the information it really needs
Data sources
International Visitor Arrivals - IVA
International Visitor Survey - IVS
Domestic Travel Survey - DTS
Tourism Satellite Account (TSA)
Forecasts
Accommodation Survey - CAM
Regional Visitor Monitor - RVM
Other relevant data
-Business demography
-Electronic card transaction data
- Backpacker data
Data sources
Commercial Accommodation Monitor (CAM)
Census of commercial accommodation businesses - GST registered with turnover over $30,000
Conducted by Statistics New Zealand ‘Supply side’ survey. Self-completed Hotels, motels, backpackers, holiday parks Monthly, quarterly and annual data Long time series KPI-quality data for guest nights, occupancy, capacity, establishments,
seasonality, regional activity Proxy measure for whole sector, esp. at regional levels Latest data to June 2010
Strongest data for backpacker sector analysis
International Visitor Survey (IVS)
Survey of 5000international visitors aged 15+ At Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch airports ‘Measures expenditure and travel patterns Tourist’ = staying in New Zealand for less than a year
Backpacker =
An international traveller who spends at least 30% of their nights in New Zealand staying in backpacker/hostel type accommodation
Data okay for characteristic analysis, but limited by definition used and sample size
Data sources
Domestic Travel Survey (DTS)
Survey of New Zealand households Telephone sample of 15,000 households Measures expenditure and travel patterns of domestic travellers Measures overnight, day-trip and non-travellers Backpacker =
A domestic traveller who stayed in a backpacker at least once during the trip
Limited backpacker-relevant data
Data sources
Regional Visitor Monitor (RVM)
• Survey of visitors in in six tourism regions (aged 15+)• International & domestic tourists• Measures motivations, expectations, booking, satisfaction
and environmental ratings• Backpacker =
A traveller whose main accommodation in the region was in a backpackers
Unique characteristic information on booking and motivation in regions
Data sources
What indicators are covered?
• Number of businesses• Capacity• Guest nights• Occupancy• Share of total accommodation• Business size• Employment• Seasonality• Regional differences• Origin, purpose, age, travel style, spend,
booking, satisfaction• Environmental performance
Here are some results…
Number of businesses - CAM
Backpacker Establishments at end of year (CAM)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
YE Jun-01
YE Jun-02
YE Jun-03
YE Jun-04
YE Jun-05
YE Jun-06
YE Jun-07
YE Jun-08
YE Jun-09
YE Jun-10
Est
ablis
hmen
ts
Daily capacity - CAM
Backpackers - National Daily Capacity (CAM)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Share of all capacity - CAM
Share of total accommodation capacity (CAM - YE Jun 2010)
Hotels23%
Motels21%
Backpackers19%
Holiday Parks36%
Business size by capacity - CAM
Backpackers by Capacity Size (CAM - YE Dec 2009)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1-4 5-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-79 80-99 100-199
200+
Beds/Units
Sha
re o
f bu
sine
sses
Business size by employees - SNZ
Backpackers by Employee Size (Stats NZ Business Demography - Feb 2009)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Self Employed 1-5 6-9 10-19 20+
Number of employees
Sha
re o
f bu
sine
sses
Employment by accommodation type - SNZ
Total Employees by Accommodation Type(Stats NZ Business Demography - Feb 2009)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Hotels Motels Other Holidayparks
Backpackers Hosted
Accommodation type
To
tal e
mp
loye
es
Monthly guest nights - CAMBackpacker Guest Nights by Month (CAM 2007-2010)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Gu
est
nig
hts
(0
00
s)
2009/10 2008/09 2007/08
Backpacker Guest Nights & Growth Rates - Year End (CAM)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
YEDec-01
YEJun-02
YEDec-02
YEJun-03
YEDec-03
YEJun-04
YEDec-04
YEJun-05
YEDec-05
YEJun-06
YEDec-06
YEJun-07
YEDec-07
YEJun-08
YEDec-08
YEJun-09
YEDec-09
YEJun-10
Gue
st n
ight
s (M
illio
ns)
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Gro
wth
rat
e
Growth Rate Guest Nights
Guest nights and growth - CAM
Total Backpacker Capacity - Year End (CAM)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
YEDec-01
YEJun-02
YEDec-02
YEJun-03
YEDec-03
YEJun-04
YEDec-04
YEJun-05
YEDec-05
YEJun-06
YEDec-06
YEJun-07
YEDec-07
YEJun-08
YEDec-08
YEJun-09
YEDec-09
YEJun-10
Cap
acity
(00
0s)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Grow th rates Yearly Capacity
Backpacker capacity - CAM
Backpacker Occupancy Rates - Year End (CAM)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
YEDec-01
YEJun-02
YEDec-02
YEJun-03
YEDec-03
YEJun-04
YEDec-04
YEJun-05
YEDec-05
YEJun-06
YEDec-06
YEJun-07
YEDec-07
YEJun-08
YEDec-08
YEJun-09
YEDec-09
YEJun-10
Ave
rage
Occ
upan
cy (
%)
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Gro
wth
rat
e
Growth Rates Occupancy Rate (%)
Backpacker Occupancy Rates - CAM
Guest nights by accommodation type - CAM
Total Guest Nights - All Accommodation(CAM - YE June)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
YE Jun-01
YE Jun-02
YE Jun-03
YE Jun-04
YE Jun-05
YE Jun-06
YE Jun-07
YE Jun-08
YE Jun-09
YE Jun-10
Gue
st N
ight
s (M
illio
ns)
Hotels Motels Backpackers Holiday Parks
Origin of guest - CAMInternational & Domestic Backpacker Guest Nights by Month (CAM)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Domestic Guest Nights International Guest Nights
Total spend by Backpackers - IVS
Total spend of international backpacker guests (IVS)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
YE Jun05
YE Jun06
YE Jun07
YE Jun08
YE Jun09
YE Jun10
$N
Z (
Mill
ion
s)
Backpacker vs other international - IVS Backpackers' proportion of…
(IVS - YE June 2010)
8% 9% 11%
92% 91% 89%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total people Total spend Total nights
Backpackers Non-Backpackers
Average spend per person - IVS Average spend per person (IVS)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
YE Jun05
YE Jun06
YE Jun07
YE Jun08
YE Jun09
YE Jun10
Backpacker Non-Backpacker
Average nights in New Zealand - IVS
Average nights in NZ per person (IVS)
05
1015
2025
3035
40
YE Jun05
YE Jun06
YE Jun07
YE Jun08
YE Jun09
YE Jun10
Nig
hts
in N
Z
Backpacker Non-Backpacker
Average spend per night - IVS
Average spend per night (IVS)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
YE Jun05
YE Jun06
YE Jun07
YE Jun08
YE Jun09
YE Jun10
Spe
nd p
er n
ight
($N
ZD
)
Backpacker Non-Backpacker
Origin of Backpackers - IVSOrigin of International Backpackers
(IVS - YE June 2010)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Australia UK USA Germany Canada Japan Other
Backpacker Non-Backpacker
Age of Backpackers - IVSAge of International Backpackers
(IVS - YE June 2010)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65+
Backpacker Non-Backpacker
Visitors employed in NZ - IVS
Employed while in NZ (IVS - YE June 2010)
0%
1%2%
3%4%
5%
6%7%
8%9%
10%
Backpacker Non-Backpacker
Purpose of visit - IVSPurpose of Visit of International Backpackers
(IVS - YE June 2010)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Holiday VFR Business Education Other
Backpacker Non-Backpacker
Travel style - IVSTravel Style of International Backpackers
(IVS - YE June 2010)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Tour Group Package Traveller Fully IndependentTraveller
Semi IndependentTraveller
Backpacker Non-Backpacker
Other accommodation used - IVSOther Accommodation used by Backpackers
(IVS - YE June 2010)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Private Dwellings Hotels Motels Holiday Parks/Campgrounds
DoC Site Guest & Hosted
Activities undertaken - IVSActivities undertaken by International backpackers (IVS - YE June 2010)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Lookouts And ViewingPlatforms
Heritage Attractions
Volcanic/GeothermalAttractions
Boating
Museums & Galleries
Entertainment
Sightseeing (Land)
Other Scenic/NaturalAttractions
Shopping
Dining
Walking & Trekking
Backpackers Non-Backpackers
Satisfaction - IVSSatisfaction Ratings of NZ Experience (out of 10)
(IVS - YE June 2010)
1%1% 2%2%6%
8%
28%22%
31%
21%
30%
42%
1%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Backpackers Non-Backpackers
10 ExtremelySatisfied
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 Not At AllSatisfied
Recommend New Zealand - IVSRecommend NZ as Holiday Destination
(IVS - YE June 2010)
1%1% 3%
19% 17%
78% 78%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Backpackers Non-Backpackers
Very Likely
Quite Likely
Neither
Quite Unlikely
Very Unlikely
Domestic Backpackers purpose of trip
Domestic backpacker spend$164 million
Purpose of Trip - Domestic Backpackers(DTS - YE March 2010)
Holiday64%
VFR13%
Business14%
Other10%
Domestic Backpackers age - DTS
Age Profile of Domestic Backpackers(DTS - YE March 2010)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65+
Why visit a region - RVMFactors that influenced international backpackers decision to visit region
(RVM - YE June 2010)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Participate In An Activity
Reflect On Myself
Recharge & Feel Refreshed
Escape From The Pressures
Challenge & Test Myself
Experience Local Culture
Learn About Other Cultures
Experience Must See Destinations
Explore Uniquely Diff Places
Have Fun, Socialise & Enjoy
See Natural Or Other Attraction
Expectations of regions - RVMInternational Backpackers - Expectations of the regions
(RVM - YE June 2010)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Vibrant Urban Atmosphere
Adventure & Excitement
Appealing Cityscape/Townscape
Clean & Pure/Unspoilt Landscape
Relaxing Place To Visit
Safe & Secure Place To Visit
Scenery (Beautiful Country)
Friendly/Welcoming People
How backpackers found out about regions - RVM
International Backpackers - How they first found out about regions(RVM - YE June 2010)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Other Media
Travel Agent
Family Connections
School
Internet
Guidebook / Other Travel Book
Word Of Mouth / Recommendation
Information sought pre-arrival - RVM
International Backpackers - Information about regions sought pre-arrival(RVM - YE June 2010)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Geography
People/Culture
Prices
Weather/Climate
Transport Options/Schedules
Activities & Attractions
Accommodation
Sources of Information - RVM
International Backpackers - Sources of Information about region pre-arrival(RVM - YE June 2010)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Magazines Or Newspapers
RTO website
Advice From A Travel Agent
www.newzealand.com
i-SITE/Other Visitor Info Centre
Advice From Family Or Friends
Other Internet/Web Sites
Guide Or Travel Books
Websites used for pre-booking - RVM
International Backpackers - Websites used to pre-book accommodation(RVM - Oct 09-Jun 10)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Direct with accomprovider
lonelyplanet.com newzealand.com Other
Satisfaction by accommodation type - RVM
Guests' Average Satisfaction with Accommodation Providers (RVM)
7.3 7.2 7.3 7.2
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
YE Jun 07 YE Jun 08 YE Jun 09 YE Jun 10
Luxury Lodge
Hotel
Motel
Holiday Park
Backpackers
Environmental ratings - RVMInternational Backpackers' Environmental Ratings of Accommodation
Businesses (RVM - YE June 2010)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Amongst Best in World
Ahead of Most Others
Average Behind MostOthers
AmongstWorst in World
Don't Know
Backpacker sector outlook
No accommodation sector forecasts
• International arrivals3.5% - Average annual growth rate to 2016
3.1 million international arrivals in 2016
• Domestic tourism Stable levels over the forecast period
Tourism Confidence Index - TIM
95104
121 122129 125
118110
98
80 8289
105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10
Net
pes
sim
ism
Net
opt
imis
m
So, what is missing?
Quite a lot of descriptive data, but…
Real lack of business-oriented intelligence:
•Financial data of sector•Performance of businesses•Benchmarking data across businesses
Difficult to use what we have now
What we have now is actually hard to use due to:
•definitions•sample size limitations•where data is held
Looking forward
Need for the sector itself to take change of its information needs
On one hand…• MED likely to do less sector-specific analysis than in
the recent past• Data sources such as CAM will be reviewed to assess
merits of the data vs respondent load
On the other…• Opportunity to organise your sector to deliver quality
information – sector-wide and for business benchmarking
To conclude…
Quality data on the tourism industry and its functional sub-sectors is critical to decision-making
The best means of putting very specific information in place is for the sectors to do it themselves
Challenging, but the information can be tailored to what is really needed, with the major gap at present around quality commercial information
Thank you…
The information used today can be found at:
www.tourismresearch.govt.nz