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Q U I C K L I N K S …
Major announcementsConstruction headlinesDetailed sector analysis
I N T H I S J A N U A R Y I S S U E …
UK construction contracts in 2017 totalled £71 billionREAD MORE
The TransPennine Route Upgrade, West of Leeds was the top project in 2017, valued at £2.25 billion READ MORE
London led contract awards in 2017, with 20% of the total and a value of around £14 billionREAD MORE
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E C O N O M I C C O N T E X T …
UKeconomicperformancedisappoints in 2017
UKGDPgrowthinQ32017wasunchangedfromitsinitialestimateat0.4%,withtheBankofEnglandforecasting the economy will have grown by 1.6% in 2017overall,downfrom1.9%in2016.Thisisbelowtheaveragerateof1.9%since2010(seefig.1.1).Since the start of 2014 the average growth rate has been 2.2% so it is clear that the latest statistics demonstrate a slowing rate of economic growth intheUKduring2017.Theeconomyishowevercurrently 9.7% larger than the peak before the 2008
financialcrash,demonstratingtherecoveryoverthe longer term.ThesectorbreakdownofUKeconomicgrowthshowsthat services continue to drive growth, accounting for 79.3% of output in the latest statistics. However, its rate of growth is slowing at 0.4% in Quarter 3 2017 compared to 0.5% between Quarter 3 2009 and Quarter22014(seefig.1.2).Priortotheeconomicdownturn the average growth rate was even higher at 0.8%betweenQ12003andQ42007.Theproduction
sector(whichispredominantlymanufacturing)accounted for 14% of output, with the rate of growth accelerating recently as exports have been boosted by the weaker currency. Production grew by 1% in Quarter 3 with no growth between Quarter 3 2009 and Quarter 2 2014 or between Q1 2003 and Q4 2007. Finally, construction accounted for 6.1% of output accordingtothelatestfigures.However,itwastheone sector which shrank in Quarter 3, declining by 0.7%.Thiscomparestoanaveragegrowthrateof
The UK economy has had a subdued performance in 2017 with the headline growth rate falling and infl ation rising, though the labour market continues to provide positive news.
1.6%Forecast for GDP growth in 2017
0.7% between Q3 2009 and 2014 Q2, a relatively strong period for construction. Average growth between Q1 2003 and Q4 2007 was lower at 0.4%.
UnemploymentThelabourmarketisstillprovingtobeparticularlyrobust with the level of unemployment remaining at 4.3% in the three months to October (see fig.1.3).ThisisthelowestrateofunemploymentsincetheperiodMarchtoMay1975.Formalesthe
ECONOMIC CONTE X T 1.1
UK GDP | Source:ONS
ECONOMIC CONTE X T 1.2
GDP sector breakdown | Source:ONS
ECONOMIC CONTE X T 1. 3
Unemployment rate | Source:ONS
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
GDP Growth quarter on previous year’s quarter (%
)
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
GDP
Grow
th q
uart
er o
n qu
arte
r (%
)
20152014201320122011201020092008 2016 2017-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Grow
th (%
)
ConstructionManufacturingProductionGDP Services
2009 Q3 to 2014 Q2
2017 Q3
2003 Q1 to 2007 Q4
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
Unemploym
ent rate (%)
-300
-225
-150
-75
0
75
150
225
300
Qua
rter
ly ch
ange
in e
mpl
oym
ent l
evel
s (th
ousa
nds)
Aug17
Feb17
Aug16
Feb16
Aug15
Feb15
Aug14
Feb14
Aug13
Feb13
Aug12
Feb12
Aug11
Feb11
Aug10
Feb10
Aug09
Feb09
Aug08
Feb08
3 month period (starting month shown)
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ECONOMIC CONTEX T… UKeconomicper formancedisappointsin2017
unemployment rate was 4.4% and for females it was 4.1%, the lowest since comparable records began in 1971. In numbers there are 1.43 million unemployed people in the three months to October, which is 26,000fewerthanthethreemonthstoJuly.Thereare783,000 unemployed men and 647,000 unemployed women,21,000fewerthanthepreviousfigure.Thenumber of people who are in employment fell slightly meaning that the rate of economic activity in the populationalsodecreased.Theemploymentratewas75.1%,downslightlyfromthe75.3%inMaytoJuly2017.Thistranslatesto32.08millionpeopleemployed,afallof56,000.Theemploymentratefor men was 79.4%, compared to 79.8% in the three months to July and 70.8% for women unchanged from the three months to July. It is worth noting that comparing both unemployment and employment rates and numbers to the same period in 2016 shows animprovingpicture.Theunemploymentrateisdown by 0.5 percentage points compared to August to October 2016 and the employment rate increased by 0.7 percentage points over the same period.
InflationInflationcontinuestoexceedthe2%targetsetbytheBankofEngland,astheweakercurrencydrivesupthecostofimportedgoodsandservices.Theinflationratewas3.1%inNovemberasmeasuredbytheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI),upfrom3.0%inOctober and the Consumer Price Index including Housing(CPIH)wasunchangedat2.8%(seefig.1.4).Thisisthehighestlevelofinflationinfiveyearsalthough recent strong increases have abated. ThemaindriverofinflationinNovemberwasanincreaseinairfares.TheothermaindriverofinflationinNovemberwasfromtherecreationandculturesector with various goods including prices for computer games rising.Themainimpactofthehigherinflationisthatrealwage growth is declining thus negatively impacting consumerspending.Afterasustainedperiodofreal
wage decline the rate had been broadly increasing sincelate2014untilthisyear.Infactthelatestfiguresshow that in the three months to October 2017 real average weekly earnings fell by 0.4% compared to thesameperiodin2016(seefig.1.5).As well as the declining levels of real wages one enduringareaofconcernfortheUKeconomyremains the low levels of productivity within the workforce.Theissuehasbecomesoimportantthat the government has recently written a national industrialstrategytoaddresstheproblem.Thescaleof the problem is clear as a comparison of output perhourworkedbetweentheUKandtherestoftheG7 countries ranks it as having the second lowest growthratebetween1997and2016(seefig.1.6).Thisappears to have remained the case throughout 2017, althoughnoofficialdatahasbeenreleased.
ECONOMIC CONTE X T 1.4
Inflation | Source:ONS
ECONOMIC CONTE X T 1. 5
Real wage growth | Source:ONS
ECONOMIC CONTE X T 1.6
GDP comparison | Source:ONS
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
(%)
201520142013201220112010N F M A N F M A N F M A N F M A N F M A N F M A N F M A N
2016 2017
CPIH
CPI
%
Oct10
Oct11
Oct12
Oct13
Oct14
Oct15
Oct16
Oct17
Oct09
Oct08
Oct07
Apr07
Apr08
Apr09
Apr10
Apr11
Apr12
Apr13
Apr14
Apr15
Apr16
Apr17
Oct06
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5 CPIHNominal wages Real wages
Canada France Germany Italy
Japan United Kingdom United States
80
90
100
110
GDP
Grow
th (2
007=
100)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
OutlookInconclusiontheUK’seconomicperformancehasbeen poorer over the last 12 months with the slowing rates of economic growth leading to a downgrade in forecastsbytheUK’sfiscalwatchdogtheOfficeforBudgetResponsibility(OBR).TheOBRnowpredicttheGDPgrowthwillbe1.5%in2017downfromafigureof2%initsMarchforecasts.Thisisthenforecasttoslowfurther to 1.3% in 2019 and 2020, all well below the figuresforecastinitsMarchoutlook(seefig.1.7).With real wages falling and productivity declining
it is no surprise that the prospects for GDP growth are receding. However the labour market remains remarkablyrobustinthefaceofthesepressures.Theprospects for the economy will not be helped by the uncertaintysurroundingtheUKexitfromtheEuropeanUnion.AstheBrexitnegotiationscontinuemorecertainty will help businesses with their investment decision process and have a positive impact on GDP. However, given the lack of progress thus far it is no surprisethattheOBRhavetakenapessimisticviewand downgraded the economic growth forecasts.
ECONOMIC CONTE X T 1.7
UK GDP | Source:ONS/OBR
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GDP Growth 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6%
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T H E C O N S T R U C T I O N S E C T O R …
Construction contracts awards held steady in 2017
ThelatestfiguresfromtheONSshowthattheconstructionsectorintheUKgrewby0.4%betweenOctoberandNovember2017.ComparingoutputlevelswithNovember2016alsoshowedanincreaseof0.4%.It is clear that the housing sector remains the main component of growth within the industry over the longer term. In particular Private Housing output increasedby8.5%inNovemberfromthecorrespondingmonth in 2016. Output in the Private Commercial
sector decreased by 2.2% year-on-year and activity in the industrial sector was 8.4% lower. Infrastructure also declined over the year with activity 8.9% lower inNovember2017comparedto2016.Traditionallythe commercial, infrastructure and housing sectors account for the majority of construction output so the falls in the former are notable. In 2018 the challenge will bewhethercontinuedgrowthinhousingcanoffsetthedeclines in the other large sectors.
In its latest forecasts the Construction Products Association expect growth of 0.7% in 2017 followed byzerogrowthin2018.Theindustryisexpectedtorecover by 2019 with growth of 2% currently predicted.Thereasonforthereturntogrowthin2019isbecauseitisexpectedthatthedealwiththeEuropeanUnionwillbeagreed,oratleastthedetailswillbeclearer.Thiswillcreate more certainty in sectors such as commercial which have been performing less well in recent months.
InadditiontothistheconstructionofthefirstphaseofHS2 is due to begin providing a boost to the levels of output.Thereareclearlyrisks,bothontheupsideandthedownside,totheseforecasts.Thepotentialofa“nodeal” Brexit or any delays to HS2 would clearly hamper these forecasts. And for that reason the lower scenario forecast predict declines in growth.TheCPA/BarbourABIIndexwhichmeasuresthelevelof contracts awarded using January 2010 as its base monthrecordedareadingof124forDecember.ThisisaslightdecreasefromNovemberbutstillindicatesagrowingindustry.ThereadingsforPrivateHousingincreased this month, but there were declines in industrialfactoriesandcommercialoffices.
Construction SectorThevalueofallconstructioncontractsawardedintheUKin2017,accordingtoBarbourABIdataonall contract activity, was £71.0 billion showing a
Marginal improvement in the value of new construction contracts awarded in 2017 indicates stability following 5% decrease in 2016.
0.4%Increase in activity from November 2016
% change
Nov 2016 – Nov 2017 Oct 2017 – Nov 2017
Total All Work 0.4 0.4
All New Work 0.0 0.4
• Public Housing 3.5 2.9
• Private Housing 8.5 4.1
• Infrastructure -4.1 -4.3
• Public(exInfrastructure) -8.9 0.7
• Private Industrial -8.4 -9.3
• Private Commercial -2.2 0.2
Repairs & Maintenance 1.2 0.5
• Public Housing -3.9 -1.1
• Private Housing 4.1 1.3
• Non-Housing 0.2 0.3
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 2.2
CPA/Barbour ABI Index | Source: Barbour ABI
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
All New Build Private Housing
Commercial Offices
Commercial Retail
Industrial Factories
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Cont
ract
s Aw
arde
d In
dex (
Jan
2010
= 10
0)
2016 2017
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 2.1
Construction activity by sector | Source:ONS
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 2. 3
Growth forecasts | Source:ONS/CPA
2017 2018 2019
Construction Growth 0.7% 0.0% 2.0%
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CONSTRUCTION SECTOR… Construction contract s awards held steady in 2017
marginal(0.6%)increaseon2016.Thisfigurefor2017shows that contract awards values have steadied somewhat in 2017, following 5% decrease in project awardsin2016.Thisprovidessignificantcontrastto the pattern of good growth for contract values between 2011 and 2015.Thetrendforvolumereductionalsocontinuedin2017 with the number of projects for the year falling by 1.7%, from 11,478 in 2016 to 11,281. Whilst this represents a slowing of the rate of decline, compared with 3.2% reduction in 2016 and 4.7% decline in 2015, it contrasts with the good annual growth rates of 22.7% in 2012, 21.0% in 2013 and 10.4% in 2014.
Projects by RegionLondon was the leading region for contract awards in2017with20%oftheUKtotalandvalueofaround£14billion.MajorprojectawardsinLondonincludedthe£1.3billionChilternTunnelscontractwhichispartofHS2.TheSouthEastwastheregionwiththesecond highest proportion of construction contracts byvaluein2017with12%ofcontractawards.ThelargestcontractawardfortheSouthEastregionin2017 was the £400 million contract for the Port of DoverTerminal2project.TheNorthWestalsohad12%ofcontractawardsin2017,withtheTraffordParkMetrolinkschemeestimatedat£350milliononeoftheleadingcontractawards.TheWestMidlandsalso featured in 2017 with 11% of contracts awarded throughout the year and boosted by the award of £3.7 billion of HS2 works in September.Other major projects awarded in 2017 included the TransPennineRailRouteUpgradenearLeedsvaluedat an estimated £2.2bn. One of the major contracts
intheEastofEnglandwasthe45MWIntegratedWasteManagementFacilityatRivenhallAirfield,with an estimated value of £679 million and due for completion in 2022. Additional power generation contracts include the £460 million mechanical and electrical works package for Hinckley Point C nuclear power station in the South West region. Whilst in the NorthEast,the41.5MWBlythOffshoreWindfarmwillprovide 5 wind turbines as part of a demonstration project and has an estimated value of £300 million.
Types of ProjectResidentialhadthehighestproportionofcontractawards value in 2017 with 35% of the total, an increase of2%on2016.Majorresidentialprojectsawardedin 2017 include the Wembley Park development to provide 458 units with a completion date of 2020 andvalueestimatedat£155million.IntheNorthWest, the £135 million redevelopment of the former BBCBroadcastingHousesiteinManchesterwillseetheprovisionof411flatsandapartments.WhilstintheWestMidlandsthe£77.2millionBristolStreet/Hope Street contract in Birmingham deliver a total of 778flatsandapartments.Thesecondlargestsectorwasinfrastructurewith29% share of total contract awards value in 2017 whichwasanincreaseof2%on2016.Railprojectswere a key feature for infrastructure in 2017 with theTransPennineRouteandHS2accountingfor7 leading infrastructure contracts in 2017, with an estimatedcombinedtotalof£9.4billion.Energyand power projects have also underpinned the infrastructure sector with a number of energy fromwasteschemes,offshorewindfarmsandgas turbine projects featuring prominently. Other larger contracts included the £300 million ThirlmeretoWestCumbriawatermainsprojectandthe£100millionM5OldburyViaductintheWestMidlands.
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 2. 5
Construction activity trendsSource: Barbour ABI
Num
ber of Contracts
0
3250
6500
9750
13000
Valu
e (£
mill
ion)
201620152014201320122011 20170
20000
40000
60000
80000
Rank Project Value (£m) Region Sector
1TransPennine Route Upgrade – West of Leeds
2250 Yorkshire & Humber Infrastructure
2 MarketTowers,1NineElms,TwinTower 900 London Hotel, Leisure
&Sport
3 EustonTunnels&Approaches – HS2 900 London Infrastructure
4 Long Itchington WoodTunnel–HS2 900 West
Midlands Infrastructure
5NorthQuay,Poplar–offices,1243flats,shops&restaurants
800 London Residential
645MWIntegratedWasteManagementFacility–Rivenhall
679 EastofEngland Infrastructure
7 1-5 Grosvenor Place – Belgravia 500 London Hotel, Leisure
&Sport
8 RiversideEnergyPark, Belvedere 500 London Infrastructure
9 SpaldingEnergyExpansion 450 East
Midlands Infrastructure
10 Port of Dover – Terminal2 400 SouthEast Infrastructure
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 2.7
Top ten biggest projects by valueSource: Barbour ABI
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 2.4
Locations of contracts awardedSource: Barbour ABI
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 2.6
Type of projects | Source: Barbour ABI
Residential
Industrial
Commercial & Retail
Hotel, Leisure & Sport
Medical & Health
Education
Infrastructure
10
29
92
35
7
%8
7%
3%
9%
11%
3%
9%
11%7%
7%
20%
12%
East Midlands
East of England
London
North East
North West
Scotland
South East
South West
Wales
West Midlands
Yorkshire & Humber
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