broker seminar march 2018 · agenda • the structured investment journey ... 2015 2016 2017...
TRANSCRIPT
BrokerSeminarMarch2018
Agenda
• TheStructuredInvestmentJourney• TheSRPMarketfrom2014to2017• ComparingIrelandandtherestofEurope
• ItsnotallaboutCapitalProtection• HowacceptingsomeCapitalatRiskallowsforcreativityinManaging
RiskandGeneratingReturns• Thingstowatchoutfor
• Somenewproductinnovations/featuresaregoodandsomearelessso• OurCurrentRangeofStructuredInvestments
• ReminderoftheKeyFeaturesofour3CoreStructuredInvestments• OtherUpcomingBrokerTraining&Education• ClosingSummary,Questions&Answers
StructuredInvestmentJourneyIreland&Europesince2015
TheStructuredInvestmentJourney
• Facts&Figures(2015to2017)• IrelandvRestofEurope• ProductTrends
• TheIrishStructuredInvestmentmarketaveraged€1.1bnandachievedsalesofover€1bneveryyearinthe15yearsfrom2000to2014
• Themarketshrankfrom2015whenBankAssurersbegantofocusona“fundsonly”investmentsolutionsandplatforms
• ThebreakdownoftheIrishmarketismoreinteresting
StructuredInvestmentsalesinIreland
2015 2016 2017
921,000,000 719,000,000 522,000,000
Facts&Figures– TheIrishSRPMarket
BreakdownoftheIrishSRPMarket
2015Sales Share 2016Sales Share 2017Sales Share
CapitalatRisk
180,000,000 19.54% 304,000,000 42.28% 277,000,000 53.07%
PartialCapitalProtection
479,000,000 52.01% 359,000,000 49.93% 219,000,000 41.95%
100%CapitalProtection
262,000,000 28.45% 54,000,000 7.51% 26,000,000 4.09%
>100%CapitalProtection
0 0% 2,000,000 0.28% 0 0%
Total 921,000,000 719,000,0000 522,000,000
BreakdownoftheEuropeanSRPMarket
2015Sales Share 2016Sales Share 2017Sales Share
CapitalatRisk
49,560,000,000 52.20% 50,247,000,000 52.35% 48,990,000,000 68.17%
PartialCapitalProtection
19,639,000,000 20.69% 11,501,000,000 11.98% 7,822,000,000 10.88%
100%CapitalProtection
20,709,000,000 21.81% 26,156,000,000 27.25% 10,725,000,000 14.92%
>100%CapitalProtection
5,027,000,000 5.30% 8,072,000,000 8.41% 4,328,000,000 6.02%
Total 94,935,000,000 95,976,000,000 71,865,000,000
CompareIrish&EuropeanSRPMarket
2015 2016 2017
Ireland Europe Ireland Europe Ireland Europe
CapitalatRisk
19.54% 52.20% 42.28% 52.35% 53.07% 68.17%
PartialCapitalProtection
52.01% 20.69% 49.93% 11.98% 41.95% 10.88%
100%CapitalProtection
28.45% 21.81% 7.51% 27.25% 4.98% 14.92%
>100%CapitalProtection
0% 5.30% 0.28% 8.41% 0% 6.02%
IrishvEuropeanSRPMarketTrends
2015 2016 2017 3YearChange
Ireland Europe Ireland Europe Ireland Europe Ireland Europe
CapitalatRisk
19.54% 52.20% 42.28% 52.35% 53.07% 68.17% +53.89% -1.15%
PartialCapitalProtection
52.01% 20.69% 49.93% 11.98% 41.95% 10.88% -54.28% -60.17%
100%CapitalProtection
28.45% 21.81% 7.51% 27.25% 4.98% 14.92% -90.08% -48.21%
>100%CapitalProtection
0% 5.30% 0.28% 8.41% 0% 6.02% -100% -13.90%
NotallaboutCapitalProtectionCapitalatRisk=Creativity&Innovation
ItsnotallaboutCapitalProtection
• TherelationshipbetweenRisk&Return• HowStructuredInvestmentswork?
• CapitalProtectedBonds• CapitalatRiskBonds
• IntroducingCapitalatRisk• AcceptingsomeCapitalatRiskallowsforcreativityin
• ManagingRiskand/or• GeneratingReturns
• OurCurrentRangeofStructuredInvestmentsinclude2ofthemostcommonCapitalatRiskstructures• AutoCallable– KickOutBondsforCapitalGrowth• ReverseConvertible– FixedReturnBondsforIncome
RelationshipbetweenRisk&Return
HowStructuredInvestmentswork?
• Firstly,CapitalProtectedBonds• FormerlyTrackerBonds• NowmostlylistedNotes/Certificates
• AllCapitalProtectedBondshave3parts:1. CapitalProtectionPart:theamountsetasidetopayfortheCapital
ProtectedLevel2. InvestmentUpsidePart:theamountspentontogeneratereturns3. UpfrontFees:amountpayabletoBroker&Manufacturer
Example90%CapitalProtectedcont.
• Example5YearCapitalProtectedBond:1. 90%CapitalProtection:86.2%setasideinitiallywillbeworth90%at
maturity2. InvestmentUpsidePart:9%ofthetotalspend3. UpfrontFees:4.8%ofthetotalspend
• InvestmentPart:Whatcan9%buy?• AEuroStoxx 50calloptionpremiumisaround18%=50%Participation• ABasketofLowVolAbsoluteReturnFunds/BondFundscalloption
premiumisaround4.5%=200%Participation• OurSolactive EuropeanEquityIndexcalloptionpremiumis6%=
150%Participation
Note:Allfiguresareforillustrativepurposesonly
HowStructuredInvestmentswork?
• CapitalProtectedBonds• CapitalatRiskBonds
1. MorethanFullCapitalatRisk2. FullCapitalatRiskwithNoProtection3. FullCapitalatRiskwithSoftCapitalProtection4. FullCapitalatRiskwithConditionalCapitalProtection5. OtherDerivatives
IntroducingCapitalatRisk
• AcceptingsomeCapitalatRiskallowsforcreativityin• Managingriskand/orGeneratingreturns
• ManagingRisk• SoftCapitalProtection• DownsideBarrier(above=good,below=potentialforloss)
• GeneratingReturns• Fixed/GuaranteedReturns• ReturnsfromRising,FlatorFallingMarkets• HigherProductPerformancethanMarketPerformance• NewAssetClasses/Regions/Sectors/Futures/Optionsetc.
• OurCurrentRangeofStructuredInvestmentsinclude2ofthemostcommonCapitalatRiskstructures• AutoCallable– KickOutBondsforCapitalGrowth• ReverseConvertible– FixedReturnBondsforIncome
CapitalatRisk– forFixedReturn/Income
Typical FixedReturn/IncomeBond
BondParts BrokerSolutionsandInvestors
TheIssuingBank
DownandInKnockInPutOption
BenefitAboveBarrier Benefit BelowBarrier
Reason forTrade AnnualCoupon
Example3.833%(23%over6years)
UsingLongPositions/DividendsinEquityIndices
Corresponding Derivative(HedgeDIKIP)
CaptheReturn
Fee UpfrontFees Execution FeeTotal 100% 100%
CapitalatRisk– forCapitalGrowth
Typical KickOut/AutoCall Bond
BondParts BrokerSolutionsandInvestors
TheIssuingBank
DownandInKnockInPutOption
BenefitAboveBarrier Benefit BelowBarrier
Reason forTrade KickOut/AutoCall
Example5%every6monthsifgreaterthan90%
UsingLongPositions/DividendsinUnderlying Equities
Other DerivativestoHedgeexposuretoDIKIP&AutoCall
CaptheReturn
Fee UpfrontFees Execution FeeTotal 100% 100%
ThingstowatchforNotallinnovationsandfeaturesarepositive
Thingstowatchoutfor….
• ModernStructuredInvestmentsfacilitategreatinnovationandcreativityopportunitiesbutbeware:
Themajorityofadditionalfeaturesareaddedtomaketheproductlookbetterratherthanactuallyimproveit
Most“rinky dinks”maketheproductcheaperratherthanbetter
RuleofThumb:thesimpler theproductpayoff,themorelikelyitisthatitwillwork
Thingstowatchoutfor:Examples
UsuallyPositiveProduct Features UsuallyNegative ProductFeatures
Adding returnsto100%ofinitial Addingreturns to90%ofinitial
Averaging:For nomorethan12monthsandmonthly
Averaging:Formorethan12months,quarterly/6 monthly/annuallyetc.
EuropeanCapitalatRisk Barriers:observedatmaturityonly
AmericanCapitalatRisk Barriers:observedcontinuously
Constant KickOutBarriers StepDownKickOutBarriers
SyntheticIndiceswithpositive &negativefeaturesillustrated/marketedwithequalprominence
SyntheticIndiceswithnegativefeaturesnotclearlydisclosedorwithoutWarningBoxesinrelationtonegatives
Being clearthatUnderlyingInvestmentswithlowrisk/volatilityarelikelytogivelowinvestmentreturns
SuggestingthatUnderlyingInvestmentswithlowrisk/volatilitycanprovidehighreturnsormarketreturns
Example1Returnsaddedto100%or90%
• 5Year,90%CapitalProtectedBond• Option1:200%Participationaddedto90%CapitalProtectedLevel• Option2:150%Participationaddedto100%ofInitialInvestment
PerformanceofUnderlying Option1ProductReturn Option2ProductReturn
-15% -10% -10%
-10% -10% -10%
-5% -10% -5%
0% -10% 0%
+5% 0% 7.5%
+10% 10% 15%
+15% 20% 22.5%
+20% 30% 30%
+25% 40% 37.5%
Example1Returnsaddedto100%or90%
• Whyaddreturnsto90%ofinitialinvestmentamountratherthan100%ofinitialinvestmentamount• ResultsinHigherParticipation:Marketingofproductiseasierbutdoes
theclientbenefit?• YouhaveastrongviewthattheUnderlyingInvestmentisgoingto
producehighreturns(theHigherParticipationwillacceleratereturns)• SamplePricingDynamicsforProductlaunchedinFebruary
• ProductwithAbsoluteReturnUnderlyingwithreturnsaddedto90%CapitalProtectedLevelgave225%Participationand5%UpfrontFees
• ProductwithsameAbsoluteReturnUnderlyingwithreturnsaddedto100%ofInitialInvestmentgave100%Participationand2%UpfrontFees
Example2:Constantv StepDownBarriers
Feature ProductOption1 ProductOption 2KickOutBarrier
90% ofinitialAfter1Yearand6monthlythereafter
100%at endof years1& 295%atendofyear390%atendofyear480%atendofyear5
PotentialCoupon
10%afteryear1(5%every6monthsthereafter)
12%eachyear
ProbabilityofKickOut
Higher Lower
• Comparing2similarKickOutBonds
Example2:Constantv StepDownBarriers
• WhyisprobabilityofKickOuthigherinaBondwithConstantratherthanStepDownKickOutBarrier?
• BackTestingshowsthatKickOutsaremorelikelyintheearlyyears
• YouneedBarrierstobeaslowaspossibleatthestartofthetermratherthanattheendofthetermtomaximise theprobabilityofreturns
ExampleBackTestofKickOutBond7
• 2,6105yearperiodsfrom6January2003to6January2018Return Term Nooftimes Probability
0% N/A 0 0%
10% 1year 574 21.99%
10%to20% 1.5to2years 1,928 73.87%
20%to 30% 2to3years 58 2.22%
31%to 40% 3.5to4years 11 0.42%
41%to50% 4.5 to5years 18 0.69%
Negative 5years 21 0.80%
Minimum Return-49.69% AverageReturn:8.37% MaximumReturn: 50%
ExampleBackTestofKickOutBond7
Source:BNPParibas,January2018
CurrentRangeofInvestments3CoreInvestmentSolutions
OurCurrentRangeofInvestments
BrokerTraining&EducationNewOnlineTrainingwithCPDpotential
BrokerTraining&Education
• NewOnlineTrainingandEducationPortalonourwebsite• Designedtodemonstratecompliancewiththenewtrainingand
knowledgerequirementsforFinancialBrokersandProductProducersunderAddendumtoCPCand/orMiFIDII
• LaunchingintheSummer2018• OnlineExaminations(onSRPsgenerallyandoneachproduct)• Passshows:
• Brokerunderstandsourproductsand• ProductProducerhasensuredthatBrokerunderstandsproducts
• WewillapplyforCPD• QuarterlyInvestmentSeminarMeetingsthroughout2018
• 2018Q1todaywithatleast3morelaterintheyear• AdHocOnlineSeminarstodiscusstopicalmattersaffectingBrokers• OthersupportsforindividualBrokerfirmsasrequired
ClosingSummaryQuestions&Answers
Summary– Topicsdiscussed
1. TheStructuredInvestmentJourney2. ItsnotallaboutCapitalProtection3. Thingstowatchoutfor4. OurCurrentRangeofStructuredInvestments5. OtherUpcomingBrokerTraining&Education
Questions?
RiskWarning/Disclaimer
ThispresentationisintendedforandisonlyforusebyregulatedFinancialBrokerfirms
Thispresentationshouldnotbeprovidedtopotentialinvestors
AllProductCalculationfiguresareforillustrativepurposesonly
MMPILimitedtradingasBrokerSolutionsisregulatedbytheCentralBankofIreland