Broadband statistics

and

customer expectations

Christoph LegutkoWireless Standards and Regulations Manager

Intel Corporation, Global Public Policy

Chisinau, 04.05.2010

Broadband future:1 Billion “Connected Mobile Clients” in 5 Years

One Architecture Across Multiple Mobile Client Platforms

Core Business Strategic Growth Areas

Client PCsCE

(Internet)

Mobile

Internet

Devices

Low-Cost

PCs

Embedded

Microsoft Windows / MeeGo Linux-based OS / Services Port of ChoiceWindows, Mac OS

Source: Intel

PC access to the internet:

mobile overtook desktop …

Forecast

Notebook

Desktop

MU

0

100

200

300

400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Gartner, Q1’09

… And mobile PCs will be

connected to the Internet

Source: In-Stat . ABI & Intel Internal Estimates, 1H’09

WAN Connection is Essential

M Units % WAN

Notebook

Netbook

Percent Connected to WAN

… And These New Devices and Applications

Are Rapidly Overloading Existing Networks

Commerce Productivity EducationMedicalInformation Entertainment Communication

“Watching a YouTube video on a smartphone can use the same capacity on the

network as sending 500,000 text messages simultaneously.”02 technology Chief Derek McManus

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index, July 2009. Forecast, 2008 -2013

[1] Signals Ahead Research, Volume 5, No. 11, 9 September, 2009.

[2] Saul Hansell, Sprint Banks on WiMax to Win Back Market Share, New York Times, 27September 2009

[3] “U.S. 3G Networks Deliver Less Than Expected,” Phillip Redman, Gartner Research, 22 January 2009.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

How Will Operators Meet Demand?

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0

TB/mo.

The problem with 3G is in the air and the backhaul.

The network was built for narrow band and now

users are downloading video on iPlayer, on what is

essentially a voice network. In London my calls

have started dropping and on the motorway my

phone drops between cells.3

Independent research firm tests showed an average

speed of 3.8 Mbps for downloads and 1.7 Mbps for

uploads for the Portland, OR Clearwire network1, four

times as fast as current 3G networks.2

Traffic Equivalents*

1 Smartphone = 30

Handsets

1 Laptop = 450 Handsets

Mobile Voicevs.

Mobile Internet

A network optimized for mobile

voice cannot handle high numbers

of mobile internet users~ 10 Kbps Constant Rate 1-5 Mbps Burst Traffic

More Spectrum Needed

More Backhaul And Different Network Architecture Required

* Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index, July 2009

Mobile Internet Requires a Technology Revolution

Data Traffic is Taking Over Voice Networks

Source: Cisco

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

DATA

VOICE

Percentage of Overall Traffic

Enabling new mobile broadband experience

WiMAX Data Usage

• Data usage expands when true broadband becomes available

• WiMAX capable of providing primary broadband, not just mobile

• 3G cost/bit and performance unable to meet BB experience expectations

3G Source: Major 3G service provider, June 2009

WiMAX Source: Major WiMAX service provider, June 2009

<20%>3GB/mo.

3G PC Data Usage

40%500MB-

10GB/mo.

25%>10GB / mo.

Customer expectations

Applicationsbandwidth/

application

1990 2000 2012

computer

telecom

Voice/SMSUMTS more data

HSPAVoice/SMS Voice/SMS Voice/SMS

computer applications drive bandwidth demand

CDmusic

games

SKYPE

EBay

banking

Google

Google Earth

WLAN

WiMAX

video

Blue Ray

DVD

HD video

Video SKYPE

Digital Cinema

Home office

Enterprises

LNA/file transfer

New Applications Drive Bandwidth Consumption

400 MByte/monthAverage Smartphone user on a 3G Network

800 MByte/monthAverage iPhone user in NY and San Francisco

4.7 Giga BytesWatch DVD quality movie on Netflix.com

1.2 Giga Bytes/monthListen 30 minutes a day of Pandora

5.8 Giga Bytes/monthWatch 30 minutes daily sitcom using Hulu HD

1.2 Giga BytesUpload 5 minute SD video clip to Facebook 10X

5 Giga BytesSync photos with your Nikon SLR and Flickr

(2)

average user’s byte “consumption”/ month

OK

7s = valuable time for person to wait

100++ Mbps wireless connectivity is needed for good user experience

20 s 1 min 10 hours1 hour1 s . . .

3 hrs

11 min

5 s

0.3 s

1 hrs

15 hrs

Needs to happen in the background or over night

I’ll do something else in between

Let’s go for coffee

44 hrs16 s

Max speed

. . .TimeScale illustrative

1 min0.03 s

5 min

6 hrs

1 hrs

9 hrs

ACTION

Transferpicture

5.0 Mpixel (jpeg)4 MBytes

DownloadDVD movie8 GBytes

Download HDTV movie40 GBytes

0.3 s

1 hrs

10 min

2 s

3G Cellular 2 Mbit/s

3,5 G Cellular 14 Mbit/s

WLAN 108 Mbit/s

WIR

EL

ES

S

18 hrs16 s89 hrs

ADSL 6 Mbit/s

Gigabit ethernet 1000 Mbit/s

Ethernet 100 Mbit/sFIX

ED

ADSL 1 Mbit/s

Thank You