british photovoltaic association
TRANSCRIPT
British Photovoltaic Association
University of Liverpool
Tuesday November 4th – 2014
Reza Shaybani
Chairman – British Photovoltaic Association
Director Special Projects – Meyer Burger AG
CEO – Rated Solar Installer.com
About BPVA
WHO WE ARE British Photovoltaic Association (BPVA) is the National trade association of the UK solar
photovoltaic industry. The BPVA is a strong political and commercial organisation and has become
the industry’s favourite platform since formation in 2010. As the most influential and trusted voice
of the industry, we have made a significant contribution to the growth of the UK solar industry in the
past few years. The BPVA is working hard to make solar PV a mainstream and significant energy
source by expanding markets, removing market barriers, strengthening the industry and educating
the public on the benefits of solar energy.
Fully independent, not-for-profit association with five Working Groups covering Policy,
Communication, Education, Finance and Application
To ensure that solar photovoltaic energy is established as the leading renewable energy
source in the UK
Lobbying, market research, sales and marketing support, exhibition and conferences, networking
events, publications, public awareness campaign, training and workshops, financial, insurance and
recruitment services and legal advice
Over 550 members and growing including: MCS installers, distributors, retailers and resellers,
modular manufacturers, production equipment manufacturers, BOS, architects, builders and
developers, roofing contractors, banks, financial institutes and investors, other trade associations,
consultancy and engineering companies, utilities, recruitment and training companies, professional
services, educational institutes and universities
London with offices in the Midlands
STRUCTURE
MISSION
ACTIVITES
MEMBERS
HEADQUARTERS
UK Solar PV Charter
The UK Solar PV Charter, created by BPVA, sets out how solar PV energy industry is delivering significant benefits to the UK and its economy and how it intends to deliver continued investment to help the UK to prosper in the future.
This Charter is formed around five core principles. The solar PV energy industry intends to apply these to fulfil its role in this partnership and to maximise the benefits which will flow to the UK and individual consumers following investment in solar PV energy.
1. To invest in the prosperity and energy security of the UK
2. To provide financial security for families by reducing energy bills and creating tens of thousands of long term jobs
3. To provide clean, safe, secure and affordable energy that will power the UK today and for future generations
4. To share our knowledge and expertise with other nations creating export opportunities
5. To reduce the UK’s carbon emissions by mass adaptation of solar PV
So, have we delivered what we promised?
Grow the UK solar industry From MW to GW in 4 years.
Solar now is one of the key technologies for meeting 2020 target and an important part of the UK energy mix
Solar industry in the UK has reached a point of no return and the UK is now the largest market in Europe
Create inward investment opportunities Financiers, EPCs, developers, manufacturers, governments, suppliers are all here!
Contribution to the economy and jobs created is now recognised by the Government
Create export opportunities for the UK solar sector British companies are now engaging in a number of solar projects across the world
Trade missions (DECC, FCO & UKTI)
British Oversea Territories and projects in ME & Africa
Global Solar PV Market
Global demand for Solar continues to grow
Modules continue to improve in efficiency and cost / Wp continues to reduce
Many European markets have now reached grid parity
We predict 30% or more of the Worlds electricity to come from Solar by 2050
Solar cannot be ignored anymore!
Where will 2014 growth come from?
China Japan USA UK Central and
South America
South Africa
Rest of Europe
South East Asia
Italy Germany Eastern Europe
Greece
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Change in Annual Installations2014 v 2013 (GW)
European markets declining
American and Asian markets growing
47 GW of PV installations in 2014
China; 13.1 GW
Japan; 9.1 GW
USA; 7.1 GW
UK; 3.2 GW
Germany; 2.5 GW
India; 1.2 GW
Italy; 1.1 GW
Canada; 0.8 GW
Australia; 0.8 GW
France; 0.8 GW
Rest of world; 7.4 GW
The UK story so far!
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
Q1'10 Q3'10 Q1'11 Q3'11 Q1'12 Q3'12 Q1'13 Q3'13 Q1'14
Residential Small Commercial Rooftop
Large Commercial Rooftop Ground-Mounted
Deployment by segment
BM <10kW
BM 10-50kW
BM 50-250kW
BM 250kW-1MW
BM >1MWGM <5MW
GM >5MW
Cumulative Solar PV Installed in the UKCapacity by Application TypeAt 30 J une 2014
© NPD Solarbuzz, 30 J une 2014.Categories >250 kW rely upon bottom-up analysis at the project level contained with the NPD Solarbuzz UK Deal Tracker report.BM: Building-Mount. GM: Ground-Mount.
Regional breakdown
All East Midlands
Cambridgeshire
Essex
Norfolk
Suffolk
Other East of England
Hampshire
Kent
OxfordshireSussex
Other South East
Cornwall
Devon
Somerset
Wiltshire
Other South West
All Wales
All West Midlands
Rest of U.K. & N.I.
Impact of international events on UK PV market
Anti-dumping– US case leads to price increases– Weakens argument to reduce minimum price in EU
China: new DPV policy could create huge Q4 demand (along with Japan)– Possibly module shortage and price increase
Retroactive FiT cuts in Spain, Italy, Ukraine…– Hurts investor confidence and raises investment risk
European Market affected by AD & Subsidy cuts
German market shrinking, most others growing, UK included EU AD price constraints likely to end in December 2015 Possible up to 20% reduction in Chinese Module Prices
UK Solar PV Market – where are we heading?
DECC, present official deployment 4.2GW
Industry, present view around 5.5GW
DECC Solar Strategy expectations 10 to 12GW by 2020
Industry view by March 2014, around 8GW
Industry view by March 2015, around 11GW
Industry view by March 2020, around 20GW
Market Deployment at present: 33% Domestic, 46% Ground, 21% Commercial / Others
Government would prefer more Large Commercial Roofs!
Government have “budget” worries
UK Grid Parity within the next term of Parliament
FiT
FIT digression mechanism designed to control growth with tariff adjustment
Present deployment under FIT’s is not matching expectations, even in the up to 250kWp projects (250kWp to 5MWp tariff too low)
Resulting higher returns still not stimulating the market
Why? Need to encourage deployment in this
buildings sector
How? FIT 2 – when will budgets be set? - assume
after election? Knowing soon would provide confidence to industry
ROC’s & CfD’s
To limit Large Scale Field growth and to encourage Commercial Rooftops, maximum size project under ROC’s cut from 50MWp to 5MWp
ROC’s end in March 2017
CfD’s – overlap with ROC’s and for Large projects (no limit)
First annual round applications being made at present
Various views on what might happen? Many concerns…
Potential impact of election on Solar Strategy?
Will ROC’s up to 5MW remain in place? Industry needs confirmation to continue to invest.
Other changes that could affect Solar PV
DCLG reviewing deemed Large Roof Planning rules – could increase from 50kWp to at least 1MWp - Any news?
Community Solar – details awaited
Transferability of Rooftop systems – Consultation dates?
Other barriers to deployment, particularly Commercial roofs, being researched
GENERAL ELECTION!
Opportunities - Government Estate – Phase 1 - 500MWp
Requirement, no problems / issues – (no bad news for the Press)
Quality systems (Products and Installation)
No accidents (Full compliance with HSE)
Compliance with all regulatory requirements
Best generation output
Best price (but still maintaining quality)
Fully warranted products
Full monitoring system linked to O&M
Opportunities - Government Estate
Phase 1 - 250MW on Buildings and 250MW on Brownfields Projects vary in size and will be spread nationwide with jobs for local installers in every
region
Standards being written to raise the bar in terms of quality (no cowboys) All installers must go through a training course (being developed) and will be issued with a
certificate (annual updates)
All products specified to be assessed in terms of quality and warranty
Quality inspections to be undertaken on all projects
O&M requirements based on 25 years Cabinet Office project legacy will be to encourage Public Sector to apply similar standards
and processes
Grid still an issue!
Grid issues continue to plague Solar growth
2016 on - grid upgrades approved DNO’s talk about Faults, Thermal issues,
Voltage problems?? – Few understand (Sounds like excuses!)
NSC Grid Guidance underway
Energy Storage on the way
Why is energy storage such a hot topic at the moment and how can it become so important?
How can energy storage empower renewable energy in general and solar power in particular?
What are the latest developments in energy storage technology and what future developments are to be expected?
How do you see the future of energy storage and its impact on the global energy market/ electricity grid?
When will energy storage become operational in a way that it will be economically profitable?
Why is the future bright for solar PV in the UK?
Strong public support for solar energy
Strong cross - party political framework
Strong government support for renewable energy market growth, technologies and supply chain
Strong market for all segments including, residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural & ground mount solar parks
Strong installed base, over 5.5 GW since 2010 and just under 6 GW by end March 2015
Skilled workforce and lots of entrepreneurs with clever idea!
Strong Currency
Strong R&D and innovation, home to world-leading universities
Attractive return on investment
High energy prices in the UK
Easy place to set up and run business with access to flexible and skilled workforce
Most attractive destination for inward investment
A simple message from the solar industry
Solar is clean, green and will lower your carbon emissions
Investment in solar can give you excellent rates of return
Solar energy can help to reduce energy costs for businesses
Use of unproductive space on roofs
Solar energy helps meet green building standards
Solar improves energy performance certificate ratings of buildings
Solar can improve the value of your building
Free energy direct from the Sun
No noise, harmful emissions or gases are produced
Safety and reliability are proven
A simple message from the solar industry
Each module lasts around at least 25 years
Solar panel have 25 year electrical performance guarantees
Systems can be recycled at the end of their life and the materials re-used
PV is easy to install and has very low maintenance requirements
Power can be generated in remote areas that are not connected to the grid
Solar panels can be incorporated into the architecture of a building
Solar power is creating thousands of jobs
Solar contributes to the security of energy supply in every country
Solar energy is simple, scalable and easy to install
Solar PV is a Fit & Forget technology!
2 exciting projects
British Photovoltaic Association
We see things in more than one direction!
Thank YouQuestions?