britannia industries (brit in)static-news.moneycontrol.com/.../2018/11/britannia... · britannia is...

November 13, 2018 1

Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs5,813 | TP: Rs6,298

On the path of “Total foods Company”

Britannia is on the cusp of its transformation as a “Total Foods company”

given 1) successful launch of cream wafers 2) Innovations like Pure Magic

Choco lush, GoodDay cashew almond and Tiger Choco cookies in core

biscuits segment 3) launch of tetrapack flavored milk and dairy whitener and

4) planned entry in croissants from Chipita JV in 3Q19.

BRIT’s initiatives on direct distribution expansion (0.25m addition/year) and

1.5xcompany growth in weak states will enable steady market share gains.

Although BRIT is facing an inflation of 4-4.5%, 3-3.5% price increase and

benefits of Rs2.25bn cost efficiency programs will enable the company

expand margins by 180bps over FY18-21.

We cut our FY19-20 EPS estimate by 3-4% as we increase ad spends by 20bps

(100 year celebrations and new launches) and tax rates by 50bps (up 80Bps

in 1HFY19). We estimate 18.4% PAT CAGR over FY18-21 and value the stock

at 46xFY21 EPS (46xDec20 EPS earlier) given strong growth outlook and

arrive at a SOTP based 18-month target price of Rs6298 (18-month target of

Rs6568 earlier). Retain Accumulate.

Concall Takeaways: 1) Rural sales continues to grow faster than urban sales and

the trend is expected to continue 2) BRIT is looking at 3-3.5% price increase

towards 4QFY19 to ward off ~4-4.5% input cost inflation. BRIT has forward covers

till mid-Jan’19 3) Brit’s growth is led by premiumisation as its share of value segment

is only 15% as against ~40% for the industry (55% 6 years back) 4) PAN India

distribution gap between BRIT and Parle is 0.6mn outlets, while the gap is 0.8-

0.9mn in North only. BRIT plans to add 0.2-0.25mn direct outlets/year mainly in

rural areas to bridge this gap 5) BRIT entered Rs30bn Dairy whitner segment and

would be focusing only on retail upto 1kg packs. 6) Currently 55% of volumes (60%

by value) are produced inhouse, BRIT plans to increase inhouse production to 60%

by volumes (70% by value). 7) Ad-spends in 1H19 grew by 20% with heavy spends

in Q2 on 100th year celebrations. This would moderate in coming quarters 8) FY19

capex to be Rs5bn; Rs2bn is already spent in 1H19 9) BRIT has targeted costs

savings of Rs2.25bn in FY19, 65% of costs savings accrue in 2H of the year. 5 lines

(total 14 lines with 0.13MT capacity, 11% of total) in Ranjangaon facility would

commence operations by FY19 10) Greenfield unit in Nepal for local manufacturing

is expected to commission in 4QFY19. 11) IBD grew by double digit led by Mundra

EOU despite slowdown in key geographies of Middle East and Africa.

Innovations a success: BRIT cream wafers have got excellent response in 2

states in south India and it is short of capacity. BRIT is expanding capacity to cater

to huge demand in Rs4-5bn segment which is growing at 20% CAGR. BRIT plans

to develop the category as small players and private labels have not been able to

fully exploit the true growth potential. BRIT currently has a capacity of producing

200mn Croissant pieces every year and will launch Croissants by 3QFY19. BRIT

launched Pure Magic Choco lush, Goodday Cashew Almond and Tiger Choco

cookies and flavored milk in tetra pack and dairy whitener in jar format.

Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

November 13, 2018

Q2FY19 Result Update

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | Reco

Change in Estimates

Current Previous

FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E

Rating ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE

Target Price 6,298 6,568

Sales (Rs. m) 106,386 121,718 106,386 121,718

% Chng. - -

EBITDA (Rs. m) 16,759 20,087 17,214 20,669

% Chng. (2.6) (2.8)

EPS (Rs.) 93.0 109.2 96.0 113.7

% Chng. (3.1) (3.9)

Key Financials

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Sales (Rs. m) 93,041 106,386 121,718 139,871

EBITDA (Rs. m) 14,275 16,759 20,087 23,979

Margin (%) 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.1

PAT (Rs. m) 9,616 11,168 13,114 16,010

EPS (Rs.) 80.1 93.0 109.2 133.4

Gr. (%) 13.9 16.1 17.4 22.1

DPS (Rs.) 25.0 30.0 36.0 44.0

Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8

RoE (%) 33.1 35.2 36.9 35.3

RoCE (%) 44.7 43.3 42.9 41.8

EV/Sales (x) 7.3 6.4 5.6 4.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 47.7 40.9 33.9 28.0

PE (x) 72.6 62.5 53.2 43.6

P/BV (x) 21.6 22.4 17.5 13.8

Key Data BRIT.BO | BRIT IN

52-W High / Low Rs.6,944 / Rs.4,400

Sensex / Nifty 35,144 / 10,583

Market Cap Rs.699bn/ $ 9,619m

Shares Outstanding 120m

3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.2228.03m

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter’s 50.70

Foreign 16.29

Domestic Institution 13.01

Public & Others 20.00

Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -

Stock Performance (%)

1M 6M 12M

Absolute 1.0 6.2 19.1

Relative (0.2) 7.3 11.9

Amnish Aggarwal

[email protected] | 91-22-66322233

Nishita Doshi

[email protected] | 91-22-66322381

Britannia Industries

November 13, 2018 2

Q2FY19 Result Overview: Sales up 13.4%, EBITDA up 14.7% led by cost efficiency programs

Y/e March (Rs mn) Q2FY19 Q2FY18 YoY gr. (%) Q1FY19 1HFY19 1HFY18 YoY gr. (%)

Net Sales 27,046 23,854 13.4 24,067 51,113 45,047 13.5

Gross Profit 10,600 8,976 18.1 9,421 20,022 17,159 16.7

Margins (%) 39.2 37.6 39.1 39.2 38.1

Other Expenses 6,354 5,274 20.5 5,744 12,098 10,329 17.1

% of Sales 23.5 22.1 23.9 23.7 22.9

EBITDA 4,247 3,702 14.7 3,677 7,924 6,830 16.0

Margins (%) 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.5 15.2

Depreciation 315 282 11.7 304 619 560 10.5

Interest 4 4 (18.2) 5 8 8 9.2

Other Income 395 492 (19.7) 385 781 832 (6.2)

PBT 4,323 3,908 10.6 3,754 8,078 7,094 13.9

Tax 1,488 1,284 15.9 1,292 2,780 2,384 16.6

Tax Rate (%) 34.4 32.9 34.4 34.4 33.6

Adjusted PAT 2,836 2,623 8.1 2,462 5,298 4,710 12.5

Source: Company, PL

4th consecutive quarter of double digit volume growth

9 9

12.011.0 11.0

10.0

8

7.0

1.52.0

2.5

6.0

13.012.0

13.012.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q3F

Y15

Q4F

Y15

Q1F

Y16

Q2F

Y16

Q3F

Y16

Q4F

Y16

Q1F

Y17

Q2F

Y17

Q3F

Y17

Q4F

Y17

Q1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Standalone Net sales increased 13.4% YoY to Rs 27.04bn, est 12% volume

growth. Gross profit increased 18.1% YoY to Rs 10.6bn on with 160bps margin

expansion (10bps QoQ) and 56% higher other operating income. EBITDA

increased 14.7% to Rs4.25bn on 20bps margin expansion to 15.7% as other

expenses increased by 120bps. PBT increased 10.6% on 19.7% decline in

financial income. Other financial income increased 12.2% after adjusting for

one-off interest receipt of Rs140mn on Pension deposits in 2QFY18. Adj. PAT

increased 8.1% YoY to Rs.2.83bn as tax rate increased by 150bps to 34.4%.

4% inflation in 2Q19 was mitigated by cost efficiency gains

Other expenses increased due to higher ad-spends on 100th year celebrations

and changes in business model in bread segment from earlier buying finished

goods to currently providing material and then getting it manufactured from

third parties. Adjusting for them, other expenses have increased

commenusrate the volume growth.


November 13, 2018 3

4% Inflation in 2Q19 was off-set by forward covers and cost efficiency gains

Source: Company, PL

BRIT has laid down 6 strategic growth drivers to achieve its vision of being a “Global Total Foods Company”

Source: Company, PL

BRIT’s innovations and renovation continues with strong innovation pipeline for 2HFY19

Source: Company, PL


November 13, 2018 4

Entered Wafers category with launch of Treat cream wafers; New Launches in milkshakes and Dairy whitener

Source: Company, PL

Direct reach has increased 2.7x; Weak states have grown at 1.5x the average company growth rate

Source: Company, PL

Heightened ad-spends on 100 years’ celebration in 2QFY19

Source: Company, PL


November 13, 2018 5

Financials

Income Statement (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Revenues 93,041 106,386 121,718 139,871

YoY gr. (%) 10.6 14.3 14.4 14.9

Cost of Goods Sold 57,735 64,859 73,834 84,515

Gross Profit 35,306 41,527 47,883 55,355

Margin (%) 37.9 39.0 39.3 39.6

Employee Cost 2,779 3,266 3,739 4,300

Other Expenses 5,297 6,321 7,177 8,185

EBITDA 14,275 16,759 20,087 23,979

YoY gr. (%) 18.5 17.4 19.9 19.4

Margin (%) 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.1

Depreciation and Amortization 1,198 1,356 1,707 1,961

EBIT 13,077 15,402 18,380 22,018

Margin (%) 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.7

Net Interest 15 149 555 555

Other Income 1,526 1,771 2,165 2,906

Profit Before Tax 14,589 17,024 19,990 24,369

Margin (%) 15.7 16.0 16.4 17.4

Total Tax 4,973 5,856 6,877 8,358

Effective tax rate (%) 34.1 34.4 34.4 34.3

Profit after tax 9,616 11,168 13,114 16,010

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associate - - - -

Adjusted PAT 9,616 11,168 13,114 16,010

YoY gr. (%) 14.0 16.1 17.4 22.1

Margin (%) 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.4

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) (170) - - -

Reported PAT 9,446 11,168 13,114 16,010

YoY gr. (%) 12.0 18.2 17.4 22.1

Margin (%) 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.4

Other Comprehensive Income (4) - - -

Total Comprehensive Income 9,442 11,168 13,114 16,010

Equity Shares O/s (m) 120 120 120 120

EPS (Rs) 80.1 93.0 109.2 133.4


Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)


Non-Current Assets

Gross Block 17,736 21,771 25,811 28,856

Tangibles 17,389 21,389 25,389 28,389

Intangibles 347 382 422 467

Acc: Dep / Amortization 7,423 8,779 10,486 12,448

Tangibles 7,156 8,467 10,119 12,020


Net fixed assets 10,313 12,991 15,324 16,408

Tangibles 10,233 12,922 15,270 16,369


Capital Work In Progress 2,003 2,753 3,503 4,003

Goodwill - - - -

Non-Current Investments 6,055 5,476 5,602 5,754

Net Deferred tax assets 87 2 (98) (220)

Other Non-Current Assets 141 173 203 247

Current Assets

Investments 15,542 17,807 23,046 31,958

Inventories 5,946 6,742 7,720 8,878

Trade receivables 2,303 1,664 1,860 2,095

Cash & Bank Balance 943 1,677 2,086 2,452

Other Current Assets 2,895 3,161 3,619 4,162

Total Assets 46,273 52,762 63,228 76,153

Equity

Equity Share Capital 240 240 240 240

Other Equity 32,113 30,929 39,701 50,501

Total Networth 32,353 31,169 39,941 50,741

Non-Current Liabilities

Long Term borrowings 3 7,214 7,214 7,214

Provisions - - - -

Other non current liabilities - - - -

Current Liabilities

ST Debt / Current of LT Debt 223 101 101 101

Trade payables 8,664 9,076 10,263 11,710

Other current liabilities 4,774 4,932 5,465 6,086

Total Equity & Liabilities 46,273 52,762 63,267 76,149



November 13, 2018 6

Cash Flow (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Year

PBT 14,622 17,024 19,990 24,369

Add. Depreciation 1,198 1,356 1,707 1,961

Add. Interest 15 149 555 555

Less Financial Other Income 1,526 1,771 2,165 2,906

Add. Other (867) (2,982) (3,514) (4,561)

Op. profit before WC changes 14,967 15,547 18,738 22,323

Net Changes-WC (4,286) (2,375) (5,184) (8,819)

Direct tax (4,973) (5,856) (6,877) (8,358)

Net cash from Op. activities 5,708 7,316 6,678 5,146

Capital expenditures (4,822) (4,785) (4,790) (3,545)

Interest / Dividend Income 1,506 1,751 2,145 2,888

Others 183 747 1 (1)

Net Cash from Invt. activities (3,134) (2,288) (2,644) (658)

Issue of share cap. / premium 1,181 (6,139) 1,311 1,601

Debt changes 120 7,089 - -

Dividend paid (3,179) (5,095) (4,342) (5,210)

Interest paid (15) (149) (555) (555)

Others - - - -

Net cash from Fin. activities (1,892) (4,294) (3,585) (4,164)

Net change in cash 682 734 448 324

Free Cash Flow 885 2,531 1,888 1,601


Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19

Net Revenue 24,110 23,884 24,067 27,046

YoY gr. (%) 13.9 14.3 13.6 13.4

Raw Material Expenses 14,946 14,900 14,646 16,446

Gross Profit 9,164 8,983 9,421 10,600

Margin (%) 38.0 37.6 39.1 39.2

EBITDA 3,746 3,699 3,677 4,247

YoY gr. (%) 1.2 (1.3) (0.6) 15.5

Margin (%) 15.5 15.5 15.3 15.7

Depreciation / Depletion 275 363 304 315

EBIT 3,471 3,336 3,374 3,932

Margin (%) 14.4 14.0 14.0 14.5

Net Interest 4 3 5 4

Other Income 328 400 385 395

Profit before Tax 3,795 3,733 3,754 4,323

Margin (%) 15.7 15.6 15.6 16.0

Total Tax 1,303 1,286 1,292 1,488

Effective tax rate (%) 34.3 34.4 34.4 34.4

Profit after Tax 2,492 2,447 2,462 2,836

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associates - - - -

Adjusted PAT 2,492 2,447 2,462 2,836

YoY gr. (%) 18.2 24.4 18.0 8.1

Margin (%) 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.5

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -

Reported PAT 2,492 2,447 2,462 2,836

YoY gr. (%) 18.2 24.4 18.0 15.6

Margin (%) 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.5

Other Comprehensive Income (1) (2) (1) (1)

Total Comprehensive Income 2,491 2,445 2,461 2,835

Avg. Shares O/s (m) 120 120 120 120

EPS (Rs) 20.8 20.4 20.5 23.6


Key Financial Metrics


Per Share(Rs)

EPS 80.1 93.0 109.2 133.4

CEPS 90.1 104.3 123.4 149.7

BVPS 269.5 259.6 332.7 422.6

FCF 7.4 21.1 15.7 13.3

DPS 25.0 30.0 36.0 44.0

Return Ratio(%)

RoCE 44.7 43.3 42.9 41.8

ROIC 43.9 46.3 48.2 52.7

RoE 33.1 35.2 36.9 35.3

Balance Sheet

Net Debt : Equity (x) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5)

Net Working Capital (Days) (2) (2) (2) (2)

Valuation(x)

PER 72.6 62.5 53.2 43.6

P/B 21.6 22.4 17.5 13.8

P/CEPS 90.1 104.3 123.4 149.7

EV/EBITDA 47.7 40.9 33.9 28.0

EV/Sales 7.3 6.4 5.6 4.8

Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8



November 13, 2018 7

Price Chart Recommendation History

No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)

1 15-Nov-17 BUY 5,226 4,741

2 17-Nov-17 BUY 5,226 4,734

3 13-Dec-17 BUY 5,226 4,807

4 10-Jan-18 BUY 5,226 4,635

5 12-Feb-18 BUY 5,226 4,635

6 14-Feb-18 BUY 5,226 4,759

7 15-Mar-18 BUY 5,226 4,853

8 13-Apr-18 BUY 5,226 5,205

9 17-May-18 BUY 6,170 5,469

10 23-May-18 BUY 6,170 5,596

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. CompanyName Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)

1 Asian Paints Accumulate 1,300 1,138

2 Avenue Supermarts Reduce 1,286 1,412

3 Britannia Industries Accumulate 6,588 5,625

4 Colgate Palmolive Hold 1,157 1,102

5 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals BUY 276 195

6 Dabur India Hold 427 385

7 Emami Accumulate 521 402

8 Future Retail BUY 613 443

9 GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Hold 8,520 7,119

10 Hindustan Unilever Hold 1,703 1,570

11 ITC BUY 364 281

12 Jubilant FoodWorks Accumulate 1,395 1,193

13 Kansai Nerolac Paints Accumulate 474 387

14 Marico BUY 377 320

15 Nestle India Accumulate 11,129 9,569

16 Pidilite Industries Accumulate 1,121 959

17 Titan Company BUY 1,115 848

18 Voltas Accumulate 658 540

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%

Accumulate : 5% to 15%

Hold : +5% to -5%

Reduce : -5% to -15%

Sell : < -15%

Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock

Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

2564

3654

4745

5835

6925

Nov-1

5

May-1

6

Nov-1

6

May-1

7

Nov-1

7

May-1

8

Nov-1

8

(Rs)


November 13, 2018 8

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

(Indian Clients)

We/I, Mr. Amnish Aggarwal- MBA, CFA, Ms. Nishita Doshi- CA, B.Com Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

(US Clients)

The research analysts, with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is or will be directly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report.

DISCLAIMER

Indian Clients

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This document has been prepared by the Research Division of PL and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.

Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor.

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PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report.

PL or its associates might have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months.

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It is confirmed that Mr. Amnish Aggarwal- MBA, CFA, Ms. Nishita Doshi- CA, B.Com Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months

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