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Britain’s Infrastructure for the 21st Century Interim results from the ITRC’s Na5onal Infrastructure Assessment Welcome and introduc9on Roger Street 14 January 2014 Ins9tu9on of Civil Engineers

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Page 1: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century    

Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s  Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment  

 Welcome  and  introduc9on  

Roger  Street      

14  January  2014  Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers  

 

Page 2: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Purpose  

•  To  explain  key  concepts  and  methodology  for  na5onal  infrastructure  assessment  

•  To  present  interim  results  and  obtain  feedback  •  To  explore  the  implica5ons  of  the  work  •  To  set  out  the  next  steps  for  ITRC  and  seek  further  engagement  in  the  research  programme  from  industry  and  government  

Page 3: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Programme  

Page 4: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century    

Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s  Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment  

 Overview  of  the  assessment  

Jim  Hall      

14  January  2014  Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers  

 

Page 5: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

“a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Page 6: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

The National Infrastructure Commission would… “produce a National Infrastructure Assessment looking at the UK’s needs over a 25-30 year time horizon” “It will develop evidence about the state of the nation’s assets and the likely impact of key economic, environmental and demographic trends” “It would set out an overarching vision for the strategic development of our national infrastructure, taking account of the main interdependencies between the sectors.”

Page 7: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  Aim  and  Ambi9on  

Aim:  To  develop  and  demonstrate  a  new  genera5on  of  simula5on  models  and  tools  to  inform  the  analysis,  planning  and  design  of  na5onal  infrastructure    Ambi%on:  Enabling  a  revolu5on  in  the  strategic  analysis  of  NI  provision  in  the  UK…  whilst  at  the  same  5me  becoming  an  interna5onal  landmark  programme  recognised  for  novelty,  research  excellence  and  impact.    

Page 8: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

The  ITRC  story  

Page 9: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Ques9ons  

•  What  are  the  op5ons  for  na5onal  infrastructure  provision?  

•  How  might  op5ons  be  put  together  into  a  long  term  na5onal  infrastructure  strategy?  

•  How  will  alterna5ve  strategies  perform  in  terms  of  reliability,  security  of  supply  and  quality  of  service?    

•  How  will  alterna5ve  strategies  perform  with  respect  to  environmental  impact,  in  par5cular  greenhouse  gas  emissions?  

•  How  much  could  alterna5ve  strategies  cost?  

Page 10: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Developing  and  analysing  infrastructure  strategies  

Page 11: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Assessment  Methodology  

Page 12: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

The  NISMOD  modelling  system  

Page 13: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

NISMOD-­‐LP  

Page 14: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Na9onal  infrastructure  strategies  

P-­‐MI:  Minimum  Interven5on  P-­‐CE:  Long-­‐term  Capacity  Expansion  P-­‐SE:  Increasing  System  Efficiency  P-­‐NS:  New  Services  and  Planning  

Page 15: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Na9onal  Infrastructure  Strategies  

Page 16: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century    

Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s  Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment  

 Exploring  the  results  Robert  Nicholls  (chair)  

   14  January  2014  

Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers    

Page 17: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Drivers  of  infrastructure  demand:  popula9on  

Page 18: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Drivers  of  infrastructure  demand:  popula9on  

Page 19: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Drivers  of  infrastructure  demand:  economy  

Page 20: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Drivers  of  infrastructure  demand:  economy  

Page 21: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Energy  demand  

Page 22: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Op9ons  for  energy  supply  

Page 23: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Costs  and  emissions  for  energy  supply  op9ons  

Page 24: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Transport  demand  

Page 25: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Transport  conges9on  

Page 26: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Airport  capacity  

Page 27: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Water  supply  

Page 28: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Cooling  water  

Page 29: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Waste  water  

Page 30: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Solid  waste  

Page 31: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Need  for  new  landfill  capacity  

Page 32: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Digital  communica9ons  

Page 33: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Na9onal  infrastructure  strategies  

P-­‐MI:  Minimum  Interven5on  P-­‐CE:  Long-­‐term  Capacity  Expansion  P-­‐SE:  Increasing  System  Efficiency  P-­‐NS:  New  Services  and  Planning  

Page 34: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Assessment  of  na9onal  infrastructure  strategies  

Page 35: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century    

Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s  Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment  

 Next  steps  for  ITRC  

Jim  Hall      

14  January  2014  Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers  

 

Page 36: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  Key  Ques9ons  

36  

1.  How  can  infrastructure  capacity  and  demand  be  balanced  in  an  uncertain  future?    

2. What  are  the  risks  of  infrastructure  failure  and  how  can  we  adapt  Na5onal  Infrastructure  to  make  it  more  resilient?    

3.  How  do  infrastructure  systems  evolve  and  interact  with  society  and  the  economy?    

4. What  should  the  UK's  strategy  be  for  integrated  provision  of  NI  in  the  long  term?    

   

Page 37: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  achievements  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning  and  assessment  capability  for  Britain  

Page 38: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  achievements  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning  and  assessment  capability  for  Britain  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability  and  ‘hotspots’  analysis  

Page 39: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  achievements  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning  and  assessment  capability  for  Britain  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability  and  ‘hotspots’  analysis  

•  Prototype  model  of  infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use  interac5ons  

Page 40: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  achievements  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning  and  assessment  capability  for  Britain  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability  and  ‘hotspots’  analysis  

•  Prototype  model  of  infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use  interac5ons  

•  Understanding  the  governance  issues  around  infrastructure  interdependency  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  database  and  visualisa5on  tools  

•  Deepening  engagement  with  industry  and  goverment  

Page 41: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  achievements  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning  and  assessment  capability  for  Britain  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability  and  ‘hotspots’  analysis  

•  Prototype  model  of  infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use  interac5ons  

•  Understanding  the  governance  issues  around  infrastructure  interdependency  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  database  and  visualisa5on  tools  

Page 42: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  achievements  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  planning  and  assessment  capability  for  Britain  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  vulnerability  and  ‘hotspots’  analysis  

•  Prototype  model  of  infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use  interac5ons  

•  Understanding  the  governance  issues  around  infrastructure  interdependency  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  database  and  visualisa5on  tools  

•  Deepening  engagement  with  industry  and  government  

Page 43: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  next  steps  

•  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure  strategic  analysis  

Page 44: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  next  steps  

•  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure  strategic  analysis  

•  Further  integrate  and  automate  modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP  

Page 45: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  next  steps  

•  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure  strategic  analysis  

•  Further  integrate  and  automate  modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP  

•  Further  develop  the  database  and  visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐DB  

Page 46: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  next  steps  

•  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure  strategic  analysis  

•  Further  integrate  and  automate  modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP  

•  Further  develop  the  database  and  visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐DB  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis  in  NISMOD-­‐RV  

Page 47: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  next  steps  

•  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure  strategic  analysis  

•  Further  integrate  and  automate  modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP  

•  Further  develop  the  database  and  visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐DB  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis  in  NISMOD-­‐RV  

•  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use  model  NISMOD-­‐RD  

Page 48: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  next  steps  

•  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure  strategic  analysis  

•  Further  integrate  and  automate  modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP  

•  Further  develop  the  database  and  visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐DB  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis  in  NISMOD-­‐RV  

•  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use  model  NISMOD-­‐RD  

Page 49: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  next  steps  

•  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure  strategic  analysis  

•  Further  integrate  and  automate  modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP  

•  Further  develop  the  database  and  visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐DB  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis  in  NISMOD-­‐RV  

•  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use  model  NISMOD-­‐RD  

•  Further  analysis  of  governance  issues  

Page 50: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  next  steps  

•  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure  strategic  analysis  

•  Further  integrate  and  automate  modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP  

•  Further  develop  the  database  and  visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐DB  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis  in  NISMOD-­‐RV  

•  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use  model  NISMOD-­‐RD  

•  Further  analysis  of  governance  issues  

•  Engagement  and  impact  

Page 51: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

ITRC  next  steps  

•  Finalise  the  na5onal  infrastructure  strategic  analysis  

•  Further  integrate  and  automate  modelling  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐LP  

•  Further  develop  the  database  and  visualisa5on  capability  in  NISMOD-­‐DB  

•  Na5onal  infrastructure  risk  analysis  in  NISMOD-­‐RV  

•  Infrastructure-­‐economy-­‐land  use  model  NISMOD-­‐RD  

•  Further  analysis  of  governance  issues  

•  Engagement  and  impact  •  Beyond  2015…  

Page 52: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”
Page 53: Britain’sInfrastructure)for)the)21stCentury) · “a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

Britain’s  Infrastructure  for  the  21st  Century    

Interim  results  from  the  ITRC’s  Na5onal  Infrastructure  Assessment  

 

   14  January  2014  

Ins9tu9on  of  Civil  Engineers    


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