britain after the referendum: what next

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1

Britain after the

Referendum:

What next?@IpsosMORI

#IpsosMORIlive



2

Speakers

Rt Hon Nick Clegg

Paul Drechsler

Polly Toynbee

Tim Montgomerie

Ben Page

President, Confederation of British Industry

Columnist, The Guardian

Columnist, The Times

MP

Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI



3

The Public

Ben PageChief Executive

Mood

Ipsos MORI

4

Welcome!

5

Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,077 online GB adults aged 18-75 29th– 30th June 2016 (426 leave voters and 548 remain voters)

No sign of ‘Bregret’As you may know the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Do you

think that was the right decision or the wrong decision for the United Kingdom?

43%

44%

14%

89%

3%8% 4%

89%

7%

All Leave voters Remain voters

Right decision Wrong decision Don’t know

6

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

No collapse in consumer confidence

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1997

Jun

1997

No

v 1

997

Ap

r 1998

Sep

1998

Feb

1999

Jul 1999

Dec

1999

May 2

000

Oct

2000

Mar

2001

Au

g 2

001

Jan

2002

Jun

2002

No

v 2

002

Ap

r 2003

Sep

2003

Feb

2004

Jul 2004

Dec

2004

May 2

005

Oct

2005

Mar

2006

Au

g 2

006

Jan

2007

Jun

2007

No

v 2

007

Ap

r 2008

Sep

2008

Feb

2009

Jul 2009

Dec

2009

May 2

010

Oct

2010

Mar

2011

Au

g 2

011

Jan

2012

Jun

2012

No

v 2

012

Ap

r 2013

Sep

2013

Feb

2014

Jul 2014

Dec

2014

May 2

015

Oct

2015

Mar

2016

Au

g 2

016

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve,

stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

7


Still split on economic

impact of Brexit

Do you think that the general

economic condition of the

country will improve, stay the

same or get worse over the next

12 months?

- if anything

more optimistic

18%

21%

39%

55%

26%

38%

46%

39%

11%

11%

15%

9%

29%

36%

35%

24%

49%

49%

7%

4%

16%

11%

9%

5%

May ‘16

May ‘16

May ‘16

July ‘16

July ‘16

July ‘16

Britain’s economy

over the next

five years

Britain’s economy

over the next ten

to twenty years

Your own

standard

of living

Better

Makes no

difference Worse Don’t know

8


Most do not expect a

change in their

Looking ahead six months from

now, do you expect your

financial situation to be much

stronger, somewhat stronger,

about the same, somewhat

weaker, or much weaker than it

is now?

personal financial

situation over the

next 6 months

About the same

Stronger

Weaker

57%

18%24%

9


Not very confident in our negotiators getting

Very confident Fairly confident Not very confident Not at all confident Don’t know

a good deal

3%

9%

6%

15%

36%

24%

41%

32%

35%

35%

14%

24%

6%

9%

11%

Remain voters

Leave voters

All

10

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016

Immigration trumped

the economy before

Looking ahead to the

Referendum on Britain’s

membership of the European

Union on June 23rd, which, if

any, issues do you think will be

very important to you in helping

you decide which way to vote?

And which of these issues, if any,

that you mentioned is the most

important to you in helping you

decide which way to vote?

23 June…..

11

7

5

6

7

8

11

12

28

33

Don’t know

Nothing/none

The ability to travel in the

European Union

Britain’s ability to trade with

countries in the European Union

The cost of EU immigration on

Britain’s welfare system

The impact on British jobs

Impact on public

services/housing

Britain’s ability to make

its own laws

The impact on Britain’s economy

The number of immigrants coming

into Britain

Jun-16

Unprompted

11

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016

Impact of Brexit on immigration numbers

And now that Britain has voted to leave the EU, to what extent do you think the

number of … coming to the UK will be higher or lower than if Britain had voted to

remain, or will it make no difference?

5%

4%

9%

3%

51%

41%

17%

32%

13%

17%

5%

3%

Immigrants from countries

outside the EU

EU immigrants

A lot higher A little higher

It will make no

difference A little lower A lot lower Don’t know

12


Split on single market v free movement with EU

Britain should continue to allow European

Union citizens to come and live and work

in Britain in return for access to the EU

single market

Don’t know

Britain should stop European Union citizens coming to

live and work in Britain with new immigration rules even

if that restricted Britain’s access to the EU single market

67%

18%

42%

17%

16%

20%

16%

66%

38%

Remain voters

Leave voters

All

13

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,026 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016

Divided over Brexit’s

impact – except

Now that Britain has voted to

leave the EU, to what extent do

you think it will be better or

worse for each of following, or

will it make no difference?

on sovereignty

Better

Makes no

difference Worse Don’t know

59%

59%

19%

31%

29%

32%

32%

32%

15%

16%

32%

24%

31%

33%

34%

27%

20%

21%

43%

42%

34%

31%

26%

36%

7%

4%

7%

4%

8%

5%

8%

5%

May ‘16

May ‘16

May ‘16

July ‘16

July ‘16

July ‘16

May ‘16

July ‘16

Britain’s public services

Britain’s national

security

Britain’s influence in

the world

Britain’s ability to make

decisions in its own best

interests

14

Not just driven by economy/inequality,

backlash against too-fast cultural

change. Strong focus on immigration in

US and UK…

15

Patriotic nostalgia

everywhere

To what extent do you agree or

disagree…?

I would like … to be the way it used to

be

69%

62%

60%

57%

56%

56%

54%

53%

51%

50%

50%

46%

45%

45%

42%

41%

41%

35%

28%

28%

22%

21%

27%

34%

34%

36%

29%

34%

33%

44%

33%

43%

44%

38%

47%

46%

46%

45%

52%

67%

63%

73%

US

Argentina

India

Italy

France

Australia

Belgium

GB

Turkey

Canada

S Africa

Total

Russia

Brazil

Spain

Japan

Poland

Germany

S Korea

Sweden

China

Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB),

online,

The Global Trends Survey

Agree Disagree

US

16

Nativism seems the key driving force for Trump…..

Nativism/

17

What is the

global view?

18

In EU, Swedes

most worried,

How does the UK's decision to leave the

European Union make you feel, if

at all…

more worried about the future, more

hopeful about the future or neither?

French the least

53%

53%

51%

49%

46%

45%

42%

42%

31%

51%

47%

36%

35%

32%

31%

10%

13%

32%

6%

14%

10%

23%

9%

13%

13%

14%

6%

8%

33%

14%

19%

29%

34%

15%

42%

37%

44%

32%

49%

45%

56%

36%

47%

56%

32%

54%

50%

61%

Sweden

Great Britain

Hungary

Poland

Belgium

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

South Africa

Japan

Canada

India

Australia

US

Russia

European Union countries

Countries outside of the European Union

More worried about

the future

More hopeful about

the future Neither

Source: Ipsos MORI

Political Monitor

Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France,

Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South

Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

19

Germans and Spanish

most likely to

Following on from the UK's vote to

leave the European Union, do you think

the UK will be stronger or weaker?

think Brexit will

64%

64%

60%

57%

50%

49%

47%

44%

41%

44%

43%

40%

38%

36%

32%

17%

13%

14%

14%

21%

25%

35%

25%

21%

34%

15%

10%

30%

23%

44%

33%

47%

23%

22%

26%

23%

25%

16%

27%

35%

25%

41%

47%

30%

39%

20%

36%

37%

Germany

Spain

Belgium

Sweden

Poland

Great Britain

Hungary

France

Italy

Canada

Japan

South Africa

Australia

India

US

Russia

European Union countries

Countries outside of the European Union

Weaker Stronger Don’t know

Source: Ipsos Global

@dvisor

Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France,

Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South

Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

weaken Britain

20

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisorBase: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India,

Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

Britons think they should get a favourable deal –

Do you agree or disagree The European Union should offer favourable terms to Britain in

negotiations about their future relationship to reduce the negative impact on the economy overall

but French and Belgians want us to be punished!

56

3631 28 26 26 25

20 19

52 5144 43

3733

141623 20 23

30 28 2734

39

25

40

21 19 16 16 19

GB Hungary Poland Sweden Spain Italy Germany Belgium France South Africa India US Russia Australia Canada Japan

Countries outside of the European UnionEuropean Union countries

Agree Disagree

21

British confidence

still high

22

Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 across the UK. Interviews were conducted online, from 26th-29th July 2016

What makes us proudest?

Which two or three of the following, if any would you say makes you most proud

to be British? Please select up to 3 options.

50%43%

31%26% 25% 24%

14% 11% 11%6% 4% 5% 3%

The

NHS

Our

History

The

Royal

Family

Our

system

of

democracy

Our

culture

and arts

British

army /

armed

forces

Having a

free press/

media

The BBC Position

in the

world

British

sports

teams

British

business

None Don't

know

23

Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 in GB. Interviews were

conducted online, from 26th-29th July 2016

What is best

From this list, please tell me

which two or three, if any of

these do you think are the best

characteristics of British people

as a whole?

6%

7%

13%

19%

24%

25%

26%

27%

40%

47%

Don't know

None

Keep to themselves

Law abiding

Hardworking

Friendly

Patriotism

Tolerant

Polite/Good Manners

Good sense of humour

about us?

24

Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 in GB.

Interviews were conducted online, from 26th-29th July

2016

And what’s worst?

From this list, please tell me

which two or three, if any of

these do you think are the worst

characteristics of British people

as a whole?

5%

7%

7%

14%

14%

14%

17%

18%

19%

22%

27%

37%

42%Drink too much

Ignorant of other cultures

Complain too much

Intolerant to other sections of society

Lazy

Bad eating habits

Too pessimistic

Bad teeth

Too nationalistic

Rude

Unfriendly

None

Don’t know

25

Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 in GB.

Interviews were conducted online, from 26th-29th July

2016

Still proud to be British

rather than

Do you agree or disagree with

the statement, “I would rather

be a citizen of Britain than of any

country on earth?”

anything else!

31%

29%

23%

8%

5% 4%

Strongly agree

Tend to agree

Neither agree nor

disagree

Tend to agree

Strongly disagree

I am not British

Don’t know



26

Rt Hon Nick Clegg MP



27

Paul DrechslerPresident

Confederation of

British Industry



28

Polly ToynbeeColumnist

The Guardian



29

Tim MontgomerieColumnist

The Times



30

Over

to

you!



31

Thank

you!

britain after the referendum: what next

News & Politics