bringing stand level fire risk to the landscape level: fire risk assessment using ffe-fvs with the...
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Bringing stand level fire risk to the landscape
level: Fire risk assessment using FFE-FVS with the Landscape Management System.
Kevin CederAnd
James McCarterWestern Mensurationists Meeting
22 June 2004
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Overview
• Landscape organization– Stands and larger scale
considerations
• Overview of the Landscape Management System
• Examples of fire risk analysis using LMS with FFE-FVS and LMS-FFE Add On
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Stands: The typical analysis unit
• A unit to create a unique area with relatively uniform characteristics– Vegetation type– Disturbance history
• Data collected at a stand level
• Tools developed to use stand level data– Growth models– Fire behavior and
effects models
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Landscape: Ecological and Ownership Level
• An assemblage of stands• Planning and
management on ownerships occur at a multi-stand or landscape scale
• Wildlife often ignore stand boundaries and will use a multi-stand area
• Disturbances can operate at a multi-stand level– Wind: ’21 Blow on
Olympic Peninsula– Fire: Biscuit fire
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Fires can work at landscape level
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Scaling from Stand to Landscape
• Need to assess at larger than stand scale, but we know the most about inventory at the stand level
• The Landscape Management System (LMS) brings together stand level growth models and stand level tree lists and aggregates them into a landscape for growth, treatment, and analysis with a user-friendly interface.
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The Landscape Management System
• A platform that bring together numerous programs – Growth models– Stand and
landscape visualization
– Stand treatment programs
– Analysis tables
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LMS ComponentsLMS Interface
Analysis Tables
Over 50 analysis tables
Visualization
SVS
EnVision
Treatment and Disturbance Simulation
LMS Portfolio:Data Files
Tree List Inventories
Site and Topographic
data
Spatial Data (optional)
Growth Simulation
FVS
ORGANON
Other Models
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LMS Data Requirements
• Stand level information– Site quality variables, age, area
• Tree inventory information– “tree list” (individual tree data with
expansion factors), Need Species, Diameter, and TPA, better to also have Height and Crown ratio
• Spatial information (for landscape analysis and visualization)– Need elevation model (USGS DEM, SDTS,
ESRI ASCII Grid – converted to PC-Plans DTM format), map of stand boundaries (ERSI shapefile or MOSS file), can add other spatial features (roads, streams, trails, etc)
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Alternative Strategies for Design, Layout, and
Administration of Fuel Removal Projects
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•Fremont National Forest
•502 plots
•928,499 forested acres
•Okanogan National Forest
•413 plots
•763,885 forested acres
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Thinning prescriptions
1) Remove 9” and below2) Remove 50% Basal Area (BA) from
below3) Leave 45 ft2/acre BA from below4) Remove 12” and greater5) Wildfire Simulation6) No Action
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Forest Condition 2000 2010 2035
Below 50% BA
Below 45 ft^2 BA
Below 9”
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Forest Condition 2000 2010
2035
Above 12”
Wildfire
No action
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Risk reduction performance of Half BA and BA 45 treatments may result from the addition of 10-12” DBH trees to what otherwise is the 9”& Under treatment.
Stands where 9”&Under is effective can be identified.
Simulations with regeneration demonstrate the need for future controlled burns or thinnings.
Okanogan high risk with regen
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LMS-FFE Add On: Linking fire tools into
LMS• All variants of the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE)
for the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model
• The LMS-FFE Configuration Tool• LMS tables linked to FFE-FVS outputs• The Fire Scoping Tool
– The Fire Scoping Report spreadsheet– Risk Mapper ESRI ArcView project file
• The LMS-FFE Add-on is not installed with the main LMS install and must be installed separately after downloading from the LMS website: http://lms.cfr.washington.edu/ or from the LMS CD.
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Enabling FFE-FVS in LMS
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LMS - Fire Scoping Interface
• Used to View FFE Variable Distributions
• Select potential fire weather conditions
• Select risk classification variable and thresholds
• Create graphical and tabular or map output
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Example of Using LMS with FFE
• ColvilleExam portfolio– Section of South Deep watershed on
Colville NF– Portfolio is installed with LMS
• Treat all stands removing all trees <9” DBH in 2005
• Simulate prescribed fire in 2010• Examine fire risk and risk change with
Fire Scoping Tool– Risk Scoping Report– Risk Mapper
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Location of Colville Exam
• NE Washington• 4344 ac• 125 stands• 3039 – 4789
feet• Mixed conifer• QMD 1 – 9”• 55 stands with
SDI >=350
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Steps
• Set up simulations– Scenario file for LMS– Set prescribed fire year and
conditions• Run simulations • Initial conditions and risk
classification variable examination• Select risk variable and limits• Fire scoping to assess risk
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Risk Classification: Which Variable?
• Fire Scoping Tool allows use of 5 FFE output variables– Crowning Index– Torching Index– Fire Type– Flame Length– % BA Mortality
• Limits for risk class can be set for local conditions
• FFE Variable Distribution report lets user examine distributions to choose appropriate variable and class limits
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Choosing Risk Classification: FFE
Variable Distributions
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Initial Risk Conditions
Crowning Index:High: <25Moderate: 25 - 50Low: >50
BA Mortality:High: >50%Moderate: 15 – 50%Low: <15%
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Initial Risk Conditions
• Set variable and limits in Fire Scoping Tool
• Run Scoping with output to Spreadsheet
• Fire Risk graphs and tables created in Fire Scoping spreadsheet
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Fire Risk Graphs and Tables
• Fire conditions• Fire risk distributions• Stand attribute
distributions segmented by risk class:– Elevation– QMD– TPA– BA– SDI– Dominant species– Stand structure
• FFE variable distributions segmented by risk class– Crowning index– Torching index– % BA mortality– Flame length– Fire type– Canopy fuel base
height– Canopy bulk density
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Fire Risk Graphs
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Did the Risk Change?
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Why Did the Risk Change
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Moved to Low risk: Pre-treatment: CI=20Post-treatment: CI=75
Still High Risk: Pre-treatment: CI=18Post-treatment: CI=21
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Where is the risk?Risk Mapping
• Custom ESRI ArcView project designed to make maps from data from LMS
• Python programs classify FFE output data and creates input file for mapping
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Risk Mapping
Avenue ScriptArcView Map
FFE Output Python Program
ESRI ArcView GIS
Landscape Management System
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Conclusions…
• LMS brings stand level data and tools together in a landscape context
• Stand level fire risk models are available and becoming more mature and usable
• Integration of tools provide enhanced analytical capability
• Stand level fire risk models don’t provide link between stands (contagion)
• Landscape level fire risk models also available, but need to be easier to use and access information
• Easy to use interfaces required for use and adoption of tools