briefing book-foreign policy 2013

8/12/2019 Briefing Book-Foreign Policy 2013

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3. The Bush administration created the Six-Party Talks in 2003 in an effort to break from theClinton administrations bilateral model for negotiations , and get key regional powers namely, Russia, China, South Korea, and Japan to join the United States in pressuringNorth Korea. The Six-Party Talks broke down when Russia and China underminednegotiations by taking North Koreas side during negotiations.

4. Although President Obama did not initially respond to North Korean provocations bycalling for further negotiations, his administration ultimately agreed to the short-livedLeap Day Deal of 2012 , in which the United States agreed to provide food aid in returnfor Pyongyang s cessation of long-range missile launches, nuclear tests, and nuclearweapons-related activities. However, t he Norths failed but nonetheless provocative launch of a satellite-bearing rocket in April 2012 scuttled that agreement.

5. While South Korea eventually emerged from the Korean War as a global economicpowerhouse, North Korea is heavily dependent on Chinas aid for assistance.

FFPPII RRee ssoo uu rrcc ee ss::

FPI Bulletin: North Koreas Missile Launch is a Wake -Up Call , FPI Senior Policy Analyst EvanMoore, Foreign Policy Initiative, December 13, 2012.

Dont Return to Korea Status Qu o , FPI Senior Policy Analyst Evan Moore, The Diplomat , April20, 2012.

Seeking Instability , FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Fly, The Weekly Standard Blog ,December 23, 2011.

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Don't Engage Kim Jong Un Bankrupt Him , Joshua Stanton & Sung-Yoon Lee, ForeignPolicy , January 9, 2013.

New Face at the Top but the Same North Korea , Blaine Harden, Washington Post ,

December 14, 2012.

Downrange From North Korea , Editorial, Wall Street Journal , December 12, 2012.

A Korean Missile and a Policy Misfire , Jack David, Wall Street Journal , December 10, 2012.

Escaping from the North Korean Stalemate , Jay Lefkow itz, Commentary , November 2012.
http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-north-korea%E2%80%99s-missile-launch-wake-callhttp://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-north-korea%E2%80%99s-missile-launch-wake-callhttp://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-north-korea%E2%80%99s-missile-launch-wake-callhttp://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-north-korea%E2%80%99s-missile-launch-wake-callhttp://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-north-korea%E2%80%99s-missile-launch-wake-callhttp://thediplomat.com/2012/04/20/don%E2%80%99t-return-to-korea-status-quo/http://thediplomat.com/2012/04/20/don%E2%80%99t-return-to-korea-status-quo/http://thediplomat.com/2012/04/20/don%E2%80%99t-return-to-korea-status-quo/http://thediplomat.com/2012/04/20/don%E2%80%99t-return-to-korea-status-quo/http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/seeking-instability_614687.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/seeking-instability_614687.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/seeking-instability_614687.htmlhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/dont_engage_kim_jong_un_bankrupt_himhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/dont_engage_kim_jong_un_bankrupt_himhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/dont_engage_kim_jong_un_bankrupt_himhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/dont_engage_kim_jong_un_bankrupt_himhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/dont_engage_kim_jong_un_bankrupt_himhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/new-face-at-the-top-but-the-same-north-korea/2012/12/14/b083c40c-4545-11e2-9648-a2c323a991d6_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/new-face-at-the-top-but-the-same-north-korea/2012/12/14/b083c40c-4545-11e2-9648-a2c323a991d6_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/new-face-at-the-top-but-the-same-north-korea/2012/12/14/b083c40c-4545-11e2-9648-a2c323a991d6_story.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323981504578175210970899962.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323981504578175210970899962.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323981504578175210970899962.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323501404578165100415774158.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323501404578165100415774158.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323501404578165100415774158.htmlhttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/article/escaping-from-the-north-korean-stalemate/http://www.commentarymagazine.com/article/escaping-from-the-north-korean-stalemate/http://www.commentarymagazine.com/article/escaping-from-the-north-korean-stalemate/http://www.commentarymagazine.com/article/escaping-from-the-north-korean-stalemate/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323501404578165100415774158.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323981504578175210970899962.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/new-face-at-the-top-but-the-same-north-korea/2012/12/14/b083c40c-4545-11e2-9648-a2c323a991d6_story.htmlhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/dont_engage_kim_jong_un_bankrupt_himhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/seeking-instability_614687.htmlhttp://thediplomat.com/2012/04/20/don%E2%80%99t-return-to-korea-status-quo/http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-north-korea%E2%80%99s-missile-launch-wake-call


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KKee yy PPoo iinn ttss::

The price for the Obama administrations reset effort to gain Russian cooperation onnuclear nonproliferation and arms control should not be American timidity toward Russianactions that harm U.S. and allied interests elsewhere. The United States should work withRussia on issues where both share interests, as they have in securing loose nuclear materialsagainst the threat of terrorist seizure. At the same time, Russia has not only prevented moreeffective sanctions to curb Irans controversial nuclear program, but also sold Iran advancedanti-aircraft weapons systems. The U.S. diplomatic response to such Russian provocationshas been weak and irresolute.

When Russia obstructs international consensus, the United States should not hesitate to pursue

alternative multilateral approaches that exclude the Kremlin. Although it may have seemedpromising to engage Russia and China in multilateral talks with Iran and North Korea, inpractice Moscow and Beijing have used such negotiations to protect their client states frominternational pressure. When appropriate, the United States should work with democraticallies and like-minded partners to pressure Iran, North Korea, and other states of concern.

The United States should respond swiftly to activities undertaken by the Kremlin to thwart thedemocratic process and violate basic human rights inside Russia . In recent years, theRussian government has accelerated a systematic rollback of democratic reforms enactedin the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, curtailed press freedom and politicalexpression, and used the power of the state to harass political opponents and media outlets.Russia has also ignored its international obligation to establish and ensure a free and openpolitical process inside its borders. The United States should speak out much more forcefullyagainst these actions as then- Senator Obama did in condemning Russias flawed 2008election as a tragic step backwards. Turning a blind eye to su ch undemocratic behaviorfurther weakens democratic forces in Russia and harms American interests.

The United States and our allies should maintain strong support for the independence andsovereignty of the democratic states on Russias borders. Russia has threatened itsneighbors and even invaded Georgia and used its regional energy distributiondominance to gain political leverage in foreign capitals dependent on Russian fuel.American policy should seek to strengthen economic, military, diplomatic, and cultural tiesto the region.

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NNoo ttaa bb llee FFaa cc ttss ::

1. With the passage of the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2012 , theUnited States sent a powerful message in support of human rights in Russia. Named afterthe anti-corruption lawyer who died after being tortured in a Russian prison in 2009, theMagnitsky Act empowers the United States to hold accountable Russians who commitgross human rights abuses including those culpable for Magnistkys impris onment,torture, and murder. The new law authorizes the Executive Branch to freeze the assets ofand revoke or deny the visas of human rights abusers in Russia. Moreover, it also willimpose new sanctions, which are different from any other U.S.-imposed sanctions onrecord, that require those sanctioned with a travel ban to be publicly named andshamed.

2. In March 4, 2012, Vladimir Putin was elected to his third term as Russian President, whichwill end in 2018. The election was beset by fraud, and opposition demonstrators began acampaign of protests and activism that remain ongoing.

3. In a surprise development, Russian voters in the December 2011 parliamentary electionsdealt Prime Minister Vladimir Putins political machine a stunning blow. Putins UnitedRussia party, which has dominated the countrys politics for over a decade, lost 77 seatsin the Russian State Duma, retaining only a slim majority of 238 seats in the 450-memberlower house. The outcome was all the more astonishing given widespread allegations of

ballot-box stuffing, harassment of election monitors, and other irregularities aimed atboosting United Russias performance at the polls.

4. Through its membership in the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe(OSCE), Russia has agreed specifically to respect the right of individuals and groups toestablish, in full freedom, their own political parties or other political organizations andprovide such political parties and organizations with the necessary legal guarantees toenable them to compete with each other on a basis of equal treatment before the lawand by the authorities.

5. The Indem think tank estimates market corruption at over $300 billion annually, roughly25% of Russias gross national product. In 2000, Transparency International ranked Russia82 nd in the global ratings; in 2010, Russia had fallen to 154 th .

6. In August 2008, the Russian Federation invaded the country of Georgia, and afterrecognizing the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independentstates, continues to occupy them. These actions violate the cease-fire agreement thatthen-Presidents Medvedev and Saakashvili signed on August 12, 2008.


A Measure of Justice for Magnitskys Murder, at Long Last , FPI Government RelationsAssociate Kristina Olney, The Hills Global Affairs , December 10, 2012.

FPI Bulletin: Mr. President, Drop the Russian Reset , FPI Policy Director Robert Za rate & SeniorPolicy Analyst Evan Moore, Foreign Policy Initiative, June 18, 2012.

A Bill that Cracks Down on Russian Corruption , FPI Director Robert Kagan & David Kramer,Washington Post , June 6, 2012.

FPI Bulletin: Reassessing U.S.-Russia Relations as President Putin Returns , FPI ExecutiveDirector Jamie M. Fly, Foreign Policy Initiative, May 9, 2012.

Beware Flexibility , FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Fly and Policy Director Robert Zarate,The Weekly Standard, March 31, 2012.
http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/guest-commentary/271943-foreign-policy-initiative-associate-kristina-olney-a-measure-of-justice-for-magnitskys-murder-at-long-lasthttp://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/guest-commentary/271943-foreign-policy-initiative-associate-kristina-olney-a-measure-of-justice-for-magnitskys-murder-at-long-lasthttp://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/guest-commentary/271943-foreign-policy-initiative-associate-kristina-olney-a-measure-of-justice-for-magnitskys-murder-at-long-lasthttp://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/guest-commentary/271943-foreign-policy-initiative-associate-kristina-olney-a-measure-of-justice-for-magnitskys-murder-at-long-lasthttp://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-mr-president-drop-russian-reset-0http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-mr-president-drop-russian-reset-0http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-mr-president-drop-russian-reset-0http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/sergei-magnitsky-bill-addresses-russia-corruption-head-on/2012/06/06/gJQAy8cbJV_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/sergei-magnitsky-bill-addresses-russia-corruption-head-on/2012/06/06/gJQAy8cbJV_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/sergei-magnitsky-bill-addresses-russia-corruption-head-on/2012/06/06/gJQAy8cbJV_story.htmlhttp://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-reassessing-us-russia-relations-president-putin-returns-0http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-reassessing-us-russia-relations-president-putin-returns-0http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-reassessing-us-russia-relations-president-putin-returns-0http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/beware-flexibility_634910.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/beware-flexibility_634910.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/beware-flexibility_634910.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/beware-flexibility_634910.htmlhttp://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-reassessing-us-russia-relations-president-putin-returns-0http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/sergei-magnitsky-bill-addresses-russia-corruption-head-on/2012/06/06/gJQAy8cbJV_story.htmlhttp://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-mr-president-drop-russian-reset-0http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/guest-commentary/271943-foreign-policy-initiative-associate-kristina-olney-a-measure-of-justice-for-magnitskys-murder-at-long-last


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Russian Children: Pawns in Putins Power Play , David Kramer & Arch Puddington,Washington Post , January 1, 2013.

What the Magnitsky Act Means , David Kramer & Lilia Shevtsova, The American Interest ,December 18, 2012.

Putin Turns Back the Clock in Russia , Fred Hiatt, Washington Post , December 16, 2012.

Backtracking in Russia , Lyudmila Alexeyeva, International Herald Tribune , December 16,2012.

For Dignity in Democratic Citizenship: Russia's Unfinished Moral Revolution and Anti-Authoritarian Movements Today , Leon A ron, American Enterprise Institute, November 28,2012.

A Quest for Democratic Citizenship , Leon Aron, American Enterprise Institute, Septe mber 4,2012.

Russias Choice , David Satter, National Review , July 30, 2012.

The Right Way to Sanction Russia , Garry Kasparov & Boris Nemtsov, Wall Street Journal ,March 15, 2012.

The Promise of Russias Middle Class , Condoleezza Rice, Washington Post, March 8, 2012.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russias-adoption-ban-says-much-about-putin/2013/01/01/d84455e8-5453-11e2-bf3e-76c0a789346f_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russias-adoption-ban-says-much-about-putin/2013/01/01/d84455e8-5453-11e2-bf3e-76c0a789346f_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russias-adoption-ban-says-much-about-putin/2013/01/01/d84455e8-5453-11e2-bf3e-76c0a789346f_story.htmlhttp://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1363http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1363http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1363http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fred-hiatt-putin-turns-back-the-clock-in-russia/2012/12/16/835273ae-4615-11e2-8061-253bccfc7532_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fred-hiatt-putin-turns-back-the-clock-in-russia/2012/12/16/835273ae-4615-11e2-8061-253bccfc7532_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fred-hiatt-putin-turns-back-the-clock-in-russia/2012/12/16/835273ae-4615-11e2-8061-253bccfc7532_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/opinion/global/alexeyeva-backtracking-in-russia.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/opinion/global/alexeyeva-backtracking-in-russia.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/opinion/global/alexeyeva-backtracking-in-russia.htmlhttp://aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/for-dignity-in-democratic-citizenship-russias-unfinished-moral-revolution-and-anti-authoritarian-movements-today/http://aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/for-dignity-in-democratic-citizenship-russias-unfinished-moral-revolution-and-anti-authoritarian-movements-today/http://aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/for-dignity-in-democratic-citizenship-russias-unfinished-moral-revolution-and-anti-authoritarian-movements-today/http://aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/for-dignity-in-democratic-citizenship-russias-unfinished-moral-revolution-and-anti-authoritarian-movements-today/http://aei.org/papers/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/a-quest-for-democratic-citizenship/http://aei.org/papers/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/a-quest-for-democratic-citizenship/http://aei.org/papers/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/a-quest-for-democratic-citizenship/http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/313229/russia-s-choice-david-satterhttp://www.nationalreview.com/articles/313229/russia-s-choice-david-satterhttp://www.nationalreview.com/articles/313229/russia-s-choice-david-satterhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304692804577281210489679138.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304692804577281210489679138.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304692804577281210489679138.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-russias-urban-middle-class-can-bring-an-end-to-putinism/2012/03/08/gIQA1FL1zR_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-russias-urban-middle-class-can-bring-an-end-to-putinism/2012/03/08/gIQA1FL1zR_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-russias-urban-middle-class-can-bring-an-end-to-putinism/2012/03/08/gIQA1FL1zR_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-russias-urban-middle-class-can-bring-an-end-to-putinism/2012/03/08/gIQA1FL1zR_story.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304692804577281210489679138.htmlhttp://www.nationalreview.com/articles/313229/russia-s-choice-david-satterhttp://aei.org/papers/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/a-quest-for-democratic-citizenship/http://aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/for-dignity-in-democratic-citizenship-russias-unfinished-moral-revolution-and-anti-authoritarian-movements-today/http://aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/for-dignity-in-democratic-citizenship-russias-unfinished-moral-revolution-and-anti-authoritarian-movements-today/http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/opinion/global/alexeyeva-backtracking-in-russia.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fred-hiatt-putin-turns-back-the-clock-in-russia/2012/12/16/835273ae-4615-11e2-8061-253bccfc7532_story.htmlhttp://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1363http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russias-adoption-ban-says-much-about-putin/2013/01/01/d84455e8-5453-11e2-bf3e-76c0a789346f_story.html


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SSyyr r iiaa ss iinn ttee r r nn aa ll cc r r iissiiss iiss sspp iinn nn iinn gg oo uu tt oo ff cc oo nn tt r r oo ll.. DDiicc ttaa ttoo r r BBaa sshh aa r r aa ll--AAssssaa dd ss r r ee gg iimm ee hh aa ss r r aa mm pp ee dd uu pp iitt ss uu ssee oo ff mm iilliitt aa r r yy ffoo r r cc ee bb yy ee mm pp lloo yyiinn gg nn oo tt oo nn llyy aa r r tt iillllee r r yy aa nn dd ttaa nn k k ss,, bb uu tt aa llssoo hh ee lliicc oo pp ttee r r ss,, ww aa r r pp llaa nn ee ss,, aa nn dd nn oo ww sshh oo r r tt --r r aa nn gg ee

bb aa lllliisstt iicc mm iissssiillee ss,, tt oo iinn dd iisscc r r iimm iinn aa tt ee llyy k k iillll SSyyr r iiaa nn r r ee bb ee llss aa nn dd uu nn aa r r mm ee dd cc iivviilliiaa nn ss.. IInn ttee lllliigg ee nn cc ee oo ffffiicc iiaa llss iinn tthh ee UUnn iittee dd SSttaa ttee ss aa nn dd aa lllliiee dd nn aa tt iioo nn ss nn oo ww ww oo r r r r yy tthh aa tt tt hh ee SSyyr r iiaa nn dd iicc tt aa ttoo r r mm aa yy mm oo bb iilliizzee aa nn dd uu ssee hh iiss aa r r ssee nn aa ll oo ff cc hh ee mm iicc aa ll ww ee aa pp oo nn ss aa gg aa iinn sstt tthh ee cc oo uu nn tt r r yyss aa r r mm ee dd oo pp pp oo ssiitt iioo nn gg r r oo uu pp ss.. CC uu r r r r ee nn tt UU..SS.. pp oo lliicc yy ttoo ww aa r r dd ss SSyyr r iiaa ww hh iicc hh hh aa ss r r ee lliiee dd pp r r iimm aa r r iillyy oo nn iinn ttee r r nn aa tt iioo nn aa ll dd iipp lloo mm aa cc yy,, ee cc oo nn oo mm iicc pp r r ee ssssuu r r ee ,, aa nn dd nn oo nn --mm iilliittaa r r yy aa ssssiissttaa nn cc ee hh aa ss aa bb j jee cc tt llyy ffaa iillee dd ttoo hh aa lltt tthh ee cc oo uu nn tt r r yyss cc iivviill ww aa r r ,, llee tt aa lloo nn ee pp ee r r ssuu aa dd ee AAssssaa dd ttoo ssttee pp dd oo ww nn .. IInn dd ee ee dd ,, AAmm ee r r iicc aa ss uu nn ww iilllliinn gg nn ee ssss tt oo ttaa k k ee dd ee cc iissiivvee aa cc tt iioo nn ss hh aa ss oo nn llyy ssee r r vvee dd ttoo ee mm pp oo ww ee r r tthh oo ssee iinn SSyyr r iiaa ww hh oo dd oo nn oo tt sshh aa r r ee AAmm ee r r iicc aa ss vvaa lluu ee ss oo r r iinn ttee r r ee sstt ss.. TThh ee AAssssaa dd r r ee gg iimm ee aa nn dd SSyyr r iiaa ss vvaa r r iioo uu ss aa r r mm ee dd oo pp pp oo ssiitt iioo nn gg r r oo uu pp ss aa r r ee nn oo ww lloo cc k k ee dd iinn ww hh aa tt aa pp pp ee aa r r ss ttoo bb ee aa bb lloo oo dd yy ssttaa llee mm aa ttee ,, ww iitthh nn oo ee nn dd iinn ssiigg hh tt ..


The regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad is a dangerous enemy of the United States. Over thepast decade, the Assad regime has supported terrorist groups across the Middle East,destabilized its neighbors, pursued a secret nuclear program with North Korean assistance,aided foreign militants that have killed American and allied soldiers in Iraq, and served as akey regional ally to the Middle Easts most dangerous country, Iran. Senior military leaders inTehran have admitted that Iranian military personnel, including members of the IslamicRev olutionary Guard Corps Qods Forces, are operating inside of Syria and directly assistingthe Assad regimes military forces.

Americas national security interests and moral values will be advanced by an end to theemerging civil war in Syria and to the Assad regime itself. The United States certainly has amoral obligation to work with others to try and halt the continuing humanitarian crisis in Syria.But it also has a powerful strategic interest in seeing not only the collapse of the Assadregime, but also the emergence of a post-Assad Syria with moderate, representativegovernment that respects human rights, upholds the impartial rule of law, promotes stabilityin the Middle East, and dramatically weakens the regions Iranian -led anti-American bloc.

Russia and China continue to use their vetoes to prevent the United Nations Security Councilfrom imposing more severe sanctions on Syria. In 2012, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoan noted : How sad is that the United Nations is as helpless today a s it was 20 years ago when itwatched the massacre of hundreds of thousands of people in the Balkans, Bosnia andSrebrenica.

Syrias escalating conflict now threatens to directly affect the countrys neighbors, includingTurkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Israel. As of publication, the United Nations estimatesthat over 600,000 refugees have fled Syria into neighboring states. In October, the UnitedStates reportedly sent military planners and specialists to Jordan to help handle the growinghumanitarian crisis.

The United States working with European allies, Turkey, and other regional partners shouldadvance a new strategy that uses combined airpower to impose a safe zone in northernSyria, where the countrys armed opposition groups have de facto control of large territory,and the Assad regimes air defense systems are weaker and fewer in number. Specifically,the safe zone in Syria should extend a partial no-fly zone over the Idlib and Aleppoprovinces, and create protected space not only for embattled civilians to find refuge and

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humanitarian aid, but also for various armed opposition groups to better organize themselvesby establishing civilian control and a durable chain-of-command.

Through a safe zone, the United States and its allies should be able to better vet and identifymembers of the opposition who share Americas interests and values, and provide them withcritical training, equipment, and self-defense aid in a more controllable and accountablemanner. Moreover, a safe zone could fundamentally change the terms of the conflict byprompting more desertions from the Assad regimes military, helping to reversefragmentation among the rebels, and creating the critical mass needed to advance seriousplanning for a post-Assad Syria that respects the impartial rule of law, minority and womensrights, and peace with its neighbors, including Israel.


1. In January 2013, the United Nations and other sources estimated that the Assad regimehas killed over 60,000 Syrians, injured many tens of thousands more, and internallydisplaced over 2.5 million civilians since February 2011. A s CNN reported, To put [Syriasdeath toll] in perspective: 60,000 people is roughly the population of Terre Haute, Indiana;or Cheyenne, Wyoming. It s how many people would fit in Dodger Stadium, and it's morethan the 50,000- plus U.S. combat deaths in Vietnam.

2. The Syrian military has not been involved in a serious military conflict since the 1970s and1980s, and much of its equipment is antiquated and poorly maintained. In 1982, theIsraeli Air Force scored stunning victories over Syrian forces in the Bekaa Valley,destroying with minimal losses 19 Syrian surface-to-air defense batteries and radar sites,and downing over 80 Syrian Air Force fighters and aircraft. In recent years, Israel hasbreached Syrian air defenses on several occasions, raising questions about how capablethe Syrian air defense system actually is. The Syrian militarys performance since February2011 in particular, its challenges in quelling increasingly assertive and resistant membersof the armed opposition who typically wield only light weapons also suggests that Syriascapabilities may be less extensive than many opponents of intervention often claim.


The Menace of Syrian Chemical Weapons , FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Fly, Wall Street Journal , January 1, 2013.

Obama Dangerously Blurs His Syria 'Red Lines,' FPI Senior Policy Analyst Evan Moore, U.S.News and World Reports World Report , December 13, 2012.

Now is the Time for a Safe Zone in Syria , Foreign Policy Initiative & Henry Jackson Society,October 16, 2012.

Inaction May Force Syrian Rebels to Deal with the Devil , FPI Policy Director Robert Zarate &Senior Policy Analyst Evan Moore, The Weekly Standard Blog , July 27, 2012.

Foreign Policy Experts Urge President Obama to Take Immediate Action to Establish SafeZones in Syria , Open Letter Organized by t he Foreign Policy Initiative & the Foundation forDefense of Democracies, July 24, 2012.

Americas Syria Policy Emboldens Assad and Iran , FPI Policy Director Robert Zarate, TheWeekly Standards Blog , May 1, 2012.

FPI Fact Sheet: The Case for Intervention in Syria , Foreign Policy Initiative, March 15, 2012.
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Syrias Descent into Hell , Senators John McCain (R-AZ), Joseph Lieberman (ID-CT)& LindseyGraham (R-SC), Washington Post, December 30, 2012.

Syria's Time Is Running Out , Frederic Hof, Foreign Policy, December 19, 2012.

Obamas Syria Disaster , John Hannah, Foreign Policys Shadow Government , December13, 2012.

Obama vs. Assad , Thomas Donnelly, The Weekly Standard, December 8, 2012.

Time to Back the French and British on Arming the Syrian Opposition , Dov Zakheim, ForeignPolicys Shadow Government , November 19, 2012.

Disappointing Friends and Allies , Lee Smith, The Weekly Standard , November 17, 2012.

The Campaign in Northern Syria, November 2012 , Joseph Holliday, Institute for the Study ofWar, November 9, 2012.

Among Assads Opponents, Moderation Reigns , David Pollock, Washington Post ,September 21, 2012.

Jihad in Syria , Elizabeth OBagy, Institute for the Study of War, September 17, 2012 .

Unraveling the Syria Mess: A Crisis Simulation of Spillover From The Syrian Civil War , KennethM. Pollack, Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, & Marisa C. Sullivan, Brookings Institution,August 7, 2012.

Syria's Maturing Insurgency , Joseph Holliday, Institute for the Study of War, June 21, 2012 .
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/syrias-descent-into-hell/2012/12/30/abc244bc-511f-11e2-8b49-64675006147f_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/syrias-descent-into-hell/2012/12/30/abc244bc-511f-11e2-8b49-64675006147f_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/syrias-descent-into-hell/2012/12/30/abc244bc-511f-11e2-8b49-64675006147f_story.htmlhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/19/syrias_time_is_running_outhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/19/syrias_time_is_running_outhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/19/syrias_time_is_running_outhttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/12/13/obamas_syria_disasterhttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/12/13/obamas_syria_disasterhttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/12/13/obamas_syria_disasterhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/obama-v-assad_665189.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/obama-v-assad_665189.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/obama-v-assad_665189.htmlhttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/19/time_to_back_the_french_and_british_on_arming_the_syrian_oppositionhttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/19/time_to_back_the_french_and_british_on_arming_the_syrian_oppositionhttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/19/time_to_back_the_french_and_british_on_arming_the_syrian_oppositionhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/disappointing-friends-and-allies_663546.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/disappointing-friends-and-allies_663546.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/disappointing-friends-and-allies_663546.htmlhttp://www.understandingwar.org/map/campaign-northern-syria-november-2012http://www.understandingwar.org/map/campaign-northern-syria-november-2012http://www.understandingwar.org/map/campaign-northern-syria-november-2012http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/among-assads-opponents-moderation-reigns/2012/09/21/b5a6b8a4-03e1-11e2-91e7-2962c74e7738_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/among-assads-opponents-moderation-reigns/2012/09/21/b5a6b8a4-03e1-11e2-91e7-2962c74e7738_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/among-assads-opponents-moderation-reigns/2012/09/21/b5a6b8a4-03e1-11e2-91e7-2962c74e7738_story.htmlhttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/jihad-syriahttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/jihad-syriahttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/jihad-syriahttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/unraveling-syria-mess-crisis-simulation-spillover-syrian-civil-warhttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/unraveling-syria-mess-crisis-simulation-spillover-syrian-civil-warhttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/unraveling-syria-mess-crisis-simulation-spillover-syrian-civil-warhttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/syrias-maturing-insurgencyhttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/syrias-maturing-insurgencyhttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/syrias-maturing-insurgencyhttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/syrias-maturing-insurgencyhttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/unraveling-syria-mess-crisis-simulation-spillover-syrian-civil-warhttp://www.understandingwar.org/report/jihad-syriahttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/among-assads-opponents-moderation-reigns/2012/09/21/b5a6b8a4-03e1-11e2-91e7-2962c74e7738_story.htmlhttp://www.understandingwar.org/map/campaign-northern-syria-november-2012http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/disappointing-friends-and-allies_663546.htmlhttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/19/time_to_back_the_french_and_british_on_arming_the_syrian_oppositionhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/obama-v-assad_665189.htmlhttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/12/13/obamas_syria_disasterhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/19/syrias_time_is_running_outhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/syrias-descent-into-hell/2012/12/30/abc244bc-511f-11e2-8b49-64675006147f_story.html


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FFr r ee ee tt r r aa dd ee iiss cc r r iitt iicc aa ll ttoo pp r r oo mm oo tt iinn gg AAmm ee r r iicc aa ss ee cc oo nn oo mm iicc pp r r oo sspp ee r r iittyy.. BByy oo pp ee nn iinn gg ffoo r r ee iigg nn mm aa r r k k ee tt ss ffoo r r UU..SS.. gg oo oo dd ss aa nn dd ssee r r vviicc ee ss,, ffr r ee ee tt r r aa dd ee aa llssoo ee nn hh aa nn cc ee ss AAmm ee r r iicc aa ss nn aa tt iioo nn aa ll ssee cc uu r r iittyy iinn tt ee r r ee sstt ss bb yy sstt r r ee nn gg tthh ee nn iinn gg tt iiee ss ww iitthh dd ee mm oo cc r r aa tt iicc aa lllliiee ss aa nn dd cc uu lltt iivvaa tt iinn gg ffuu ttuu r r ee pp aa r r ttnn ee r r ss.. PPr r oo ttee cc tt iioo nn iisstt pp oo lliicc iiee ss uu lltt iimm aa ttee llyy hh uu r r tt UU..SS.. iinn ttee r r ee sstt ss,, pp aa r r tt iicc uu llaa r r llyy gg iivvee nn tthh aa tt 9955%% oo ff tt hh ee ww oo r r lldd ss cc oo nn ssuu mm ee r r ss lliivvee oo uu ttssiidd ee UU..SS.. bb oo r r dd ee r r ss..


American leadership on trade is critical to increasing U.S. economic growth and creatingmore jobs for Americans. Without U.S. leadership on trade, global protectionist sentimentcould rise, delivering another blow to U.S. businesses and consumers that could result infewer jobs, reduced wages, and higher prices.

After a long delay, President Obama signed into law the congressionally-approved U.S. freetrade agreements with Panama, Colombia, and South Korea on October 23, 2011. Theagreements were initially signed by the Bush administration in 2006 and 2007. The WhiteHouse estimates the South Korea agreement alone will increase U.S. GDP by at least $11billion and support 70,000 jobs.

The United States should successfully conclude negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP) trade agreement. The TPP is a proposed multilateral agreement that would eliminatebarriers to foreign trade and investment among certain countries in North America and theAsia-Pacific. Currently 11 countries are involved in ongoing negotiations for a TPP pact namely, the United States, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand,Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. This voluntary but legally-binding agreement would requiresignatories to eliminate all tariffs against member states over a 10-year period, andencourage private-sector initiatives by reducing support for state-owned enterprises. TheTPP accord will promote the economic growth of partner countries while strengtheningAmericas trade pres ence in the region and adding billions to the U.S. economy.

The United States and the European Union should advance formal negotiations for a freetrade agreement as soon as practicable. A U.S. EU free trade agreement would not onlybenefit each others e conomic interests but would also further economically align partnerswho already share many core political values and, in particular, advance the TransatlanticCommunitys commitment to free markets as an engine of economic growth. The Americanand Europe an economies already form the worlds biggest and most prosperous market,accounting for 54% of global GDP in terms of value and 40% of GDP in terms of purchasingpower. Individually, Americans and Europeans are still wealthier than Chinese, with a GDP

per capita of roughly $50,000 in the U.S. and $32,000 in the EU, compared to only $9,000 inChina. According to a 2010 study for the European Center for International PoliticalEconomy, a free trade agreement could lead to dynamic gains in GDP of as much as $69billion for Europe and $181 billion for the United States.

The United States should also expand export opportunities to Brazil and India. With one ofthe fastest growing economies in the world and the largest economy in South America, Brazilis Americ as second largest Latin American trading partne r. Yet the U.S.-Brazilian traderelationship still has great potential to grow. In addition, the United States and India, whichare increasingly bound together by shared strategic and economic interests, stand to reapgreat benefits from deeper trade relations.

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U.S.-Chinese economic interdependence should not hinder efforts to ensure that Americanbusinesses are treated fairly. Chinas growing economy and population offer bothtremendous opportunity for U.S. companies and benefits for American consumers. Chinasbusinesses should operate in a transparent fashion, its currency should be allowed to float toreflect its market value, and Beijing should respect and enforce vigorously the intellectualproperty rights of Americans firms. However, in working with China to end such practices, itwould be a mistake to impose U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. The Obama administration hasrefused to support new tariffs, which would likely lead to a counterproductive trade war withChina that hurt U.S. companies and raise the cost of goods for American consumers.

The U.S. economy benefits from the foreign direct investment (FDI) that flows into U.S.companies. In turn, these companies often use this investment capital to fund research anddevelopment activities, equipment purchases, and new or expanded production facilities.


1. According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, international markets represent 74% of theworlds purchasing power, 87% of its economic growth, and 95% of its consumers.Developing countries purchased 53% of U.S. goods exports in 2010, led by a boom insales to East Asia and the Americas.

2. When it comes to the sales of manufactured goods, farm products, services, and naturalresources, the United States tops both Germany and China by about $200 billion as theworlds top exporter.

3. More than 50 million Americans work for companies that engage in international trade,according to the U.S. Department of Treasury. One in three manufacturing jobs dependson exports, and one in three acres of U.S. farmland is planted to feed hungry consumersoverseas.

4. The U.S. Department of Commerces Economics and Statistics Administration rep orted in2011 that foreign direct investment (FD) in the United States over the last decade hassupported more than 5 million U.S. jobs.


Obama Drops the Ball on India , FPI Senior Policy Analyst Patrick Christy, The Diplomat ,March 27, 2012.

FPI Bulletin: Boost U.S. Economy with Free Trade Not Unilateral Tariffs , FPI Executive DirectorJamie M. Fly & Senior Policy Analyst Patrick Christy, Foreign Policy Initiative, October 6, 2011.


Trans-Atlantic Trade Stimulus , Editorial, Wall Street Journal , December 4, 2012.

Fool Me Once... Phil Levy, Foreign Policys Shadow Government , November 19, 2012.

America Needs a Business Pivot Toward Asia , Curtis S. Chin, Wall Street Journal , August 8,2012.

How About a Free-Trade Deal With Europe? Paula Dobriansky & Paul Saunders, Wall Street Journal , July 8, 2012.
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kill the Saudi ambassador on American soil have been foiled because of U.S.intelligence gathering and counterterrorism efforts. In addition, 40 other attemptedterrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland have been foiled, according to The HeritageFoundation.

2. Although al- Qaedas central leadership continues to reside in Pakistan, the organizationsregional affiliates are increasing their profile within the network by directing terrorist actsagainst Western targets.

3. On May 2, 2011, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in a daring raid by U.S.Navy SEALS. Bin Ladens lieutenant, Ayman al -Zawahiri, reportedly took control of the al-Qaeda network. On June 4, 2012, Abu Yaha al-Libi, Zawahiris new second -in-command,was killed in Pakistan by a CIA drone strike.


A War thats Bigger than Afghanistan , FPI Director William Kristol, Washington Post , May 2,2012.

We Cant Just Play Whack -A-Mole in The War on Terror , FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Fly& Senior Policy Analyst Evan Moore, National Review Onlines The Corner , September 30,2011.

The Will and Moral Courage , FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Fly, National Review Online ,September 9, 2011.


Those Unilateral French , Editorial, Wall Street Journal , January 14, 2013

Why We Must Help Save Mali , Vicki Huddleston, The New York Times , January 14, 2013.

Mali: Vive La France , Elliott Abrams, Council on Foreign Relations Pressure Points , January14, 2013.

France Takes the Lead in Mali , Max Boot, Commentarys Contentions , January 14, 2013.

Al Qaeda Lives , Thomas Joscelyn, The Weekly Standard , December 15, 2012.

Al Qaeda 3.0: Terrorisms Emergent New Power Bases , Bruce Riedel, The Daily Beast ,December 3, 2012.

Al Qaedas Not as Battered as Obama Thinks , Daniel Byman, The New Republic ,November 29, 2012.

Obama and Terror: A Four-Year Scandal , Michael Mukasey, Commentary, November

2012. Boko Haram: An Overlooked Threat to U.S. Security , Congressman Patrick Meehan, The

Heritage Foundation, July 24, 2012.

Civilian Casualties Plummet in Drone Strikes , Peter Bergen & Jennifer Rowland, CNN.com ,July 13, 2012.

Terror Is Their Family Business , Jeffrey Dressler, The Weekly Standard , July 7, 2012.

The Drone Blowback Fallacy , Christopher Swift, Foreign Affairs Snapshots , July 1, 2012.
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