Bridging the Gap: Understanding the Academic Preparation of High School

Graduates for College Admission

Rick Kroc, University of ArizonaScott Andrew Schulz, University of

Southern California

2008 AIR Forum – Seattle, Washington

Background and Purpose

• Purpose of Today’s Presentation:– Provide a framework for

institutions/institutional systems to gauge eligibility in states where student data is not currently collected annually

Background and Purpose

• Eligibility is defined as the percentage of Arizona high school graduates who meet the criteria for university admission

• Eligibility is an important part of the access pipeline– Underrepresented populations– Changes to university admission criteria– Accountability measures– Enrollment projections and demand studies

Arizona Tri-University Admission Standards

http://www.abor.asu.edu/3_for_students/admissions%20policy2-old.pdf

Project History

• Arizona Board of Regents has commissioned the state’s three public universities to collect/analyze student eligibility every few years

• Studies have analyzed 1989, 1996, 1998, 2002, and 2006 Arizona high school transcripts

• Database containing high school course-level data available for modeling the impact of policy changes

Selecting a Sample

• -Wanted a stratified sample with at least a 95% confidence interval– Needed at least n = 400 for each ethnic group

• Calculations based on anticipated grad rate and response rates– Grad rate for students entering senior year reported by

state to be 87% – Response rate assumed to be about 70%, ended up

being 73%

• Budget constraints

Established Multipliers

  Asian Black Hispanic Native Am White Total

12TH GRADE ENROLLMENT 2005-2006 805 1,337 9,224 2,092 13,761 27,219

  Asian Black Hispanic Native Am White Total

Anticipated 12th Grade Graduation Rate (87%) 700

1,163 8,025 1,820

11,972

23,681

  Asian Black Hispanic Native Am White Total

Expected Response Rate (70%) 490

814 5,617 1,274

8,380

16,576

Transcripts Requested Asian Black Hispanic Native Am White Total

All (1) 490 (526)          

All (1)   814 (749)        

1 of 9 (.11)     618 (615)      

1 of 2 (.5)       637 (617)    

1 of 13 (.0769)         645 (762)  

           

3,204

(3269)

Permission and Credibility

• School District Offices of Institutional Research

• Letters of Support– Superintendent of Public Instruction– UA Office of Enrollment Research

Packets Mailed

• Addressed to School Principals

• Included Instructions for Transcript Selection

• Follow-up Phone Calls and Reminder Cards

• Consistent Credibility Challenge

Findings

2006 2002 1998 1996 1989

African American 32% 31% 27% 40% 32%

American Indian 26% 21% 21% 40% 22%

Asian American 70% 66% 62% 74% 66%

Hispanic 35% 30% 29% 42% 31%

White 57% 52% 49% 61% 50%

Total 48% 44% 42% 55% 44%

History of Eligibility Rates

Five new high school units added to requirements in 1998

Findings

Arizona High School GraduatesEligible for Assured and Delegated Admission

47.9%

56.5%

35.3%

70.3%

25.7%32.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AfricanAmerican

AmericanIndian

AsianAmerican

Hispanic White Total

Pe

rce

nt

Elig

ible

Delegated Assured

Findings

Eng Math Sci Soc Sci Lang Arts

African Am. 70% 27% 47% 77% 47% 74%

Am. Indian 66% 20% 49% 73% 37% 64%

Asian Am. 86% 68% 82% 92% 75% 91%

Hispanic 65% 26% 50% 78% 51% 71%

White 81% 48% 69% 89% 64% 87%

Total 75% 40% 62% 84% 59% 81%

Completion Rate for 2006 Eligible Graduates

Findings

41.8%

53.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Female Male

Eligibility by Gender

Findings

81%84%

59%62%

40%

75%

19%

1%

16%16%

22%

6%

15%26%22%39%19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

English Math Science Language SocialStudies

Fine Arts

Meets Requirement One Deficiency Does Not Meet Requirement

Total Competency Area Attainment

Findings

Projections of Eligible Arizona HS Graduates

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

Stu

de

nts

African American American Indian Asian American Hispanic White Total Arizona Graduates

Conclusions

• Eligibility has improved for all ethnic groups since 2002, but substantial gaps continue to exist

• Women’s eligibility rates continue to be substantially higher than rates for men

• Eligibility rates in rural areas of Arizona lag behind rates in Maricopa and Pima Counties

Conclusions

• Completion of the required units of math would have the greatest impact on eligibility, followed by completion of the science and foreign language requirements

• Enrollment projections based on current eligibility rates are consistent with those made previously for university system and statewide planning purposes

Questions and Comments???

Presentation available at: http://www.usc.edu/cerpp

Click on: CERPP Presentations