brexit factbook - statistanote: united kingdom (great britain); february 13-16, 2016; 18 years and...
TRANSCRIPT
October2018
BREXIT FACTBOOK
1 INTRODUCTION
2 LEAD-UP
3 THE REFERENDUM
4 POLITICAL FALLOUT
5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
6 BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
7 APPENDIX
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
3
In just over six months, the United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union. Although time is running short,negotiations between Britain and the EU have stalled at a crucial moment, increasing the probability of a no-deal Brexit. Inresponse to this threat, over 700 thousand people marched through London last week demanding a second referendum or"people‘s vote" in order to break the deadlock. Whatever the outcome, the political and economic damage for both sideshas already been significant.
The Statista Brexit Factbook aims to give you a comprehensive overview of the most important facts and figures coveringthe entire process from the lead-up to the EU membership referendum itself as well as the subsequent economical,financial and political ramifications.
This report is going to be updated regularly over the course of the next year.
October 23, 2018
4
1 INTRODUCTION
2 LEAD-UP
3 THE REFERENDUM
4 POLITICAL FALLOUT
5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
6 BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
7 APPENDIX
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LEAD-UP
Britain’s relationship with the European Union and its forerunner organizations has never been an unproblematic one forthe United Kingdom’s post-war leaders. Even after Britain eventually joined the European Community in 1973 the issuecaused enough division to warrant a referendum on membership in 1975. Although Britain voted to remain in what wasthen called the ECC, the matter was far from settled. The opposition to Britain’s membership reformed and reorganized,eventually expressing itself most obviously in the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP).
A surge in support for UKIP in the early 2010s certainly contributed to David Cameron’s decision in January 2013 toguarantee a referendum on the UK’s EU membership, if the Conservatives won a majority in the 2015 General Election.Many of UKIP’s supporters were people who had previously voted for the Conservative Party and their strong showing inthe European Elections of 2014 implied Cameron was right to confront the issue. When the Conservatives did win theGeneral Election of 2015, Cameron set out to negotiate an improved deal with the EU, and then announce a referendumon membership.
Throughout the period Cameron negotiated with the EU and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, the British publicwere skeptical he could get a good deal. Nevertheless, in February 2016, after securing some concessions from the EU onBritain’s membership, Cameron announced he would campaign for Britain to remain in the EU in an in-out referendum tobe held on June 23, 2016. A survey conducted just before the announcement indicated that most of the public thought thetime was right for the referendum. Although Cameron campaigned to remain in the EU, several prominent members of hisown party campaigned to leave, including the divisive, but popular figure of Boris Johnson. In the space of only a fewmonths, Britain had to make its most important decision for a generation.
6
45%
15%
12%11%
3%
1%
11%
1%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
Conservative Liberal Democrat UKIP Labour BNP Other Did not vote Don't know
Sh
are
of cu
rre
nt U
KIP
su
pp
ort
ers
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); January 2014; 18 years and older; over 4,000 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Distribution of current UK Independence Party (UKIP) supporters in Great Britain in January 2014, by party voted for in the 2010 UK general election
How current UKIP supporters voted in the 2010 United Kingdom general election
7
Lead-up
26,77%
24,74%
23,31%
7,67%
6,69%
4,02%
2,4%
1,11%
0,71%
0,69%
0,66%
0,54%
0,35%
0,34%
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0%
UKIP
The Labour Party
Conservative Party
Greens
Liberal Democrats
Other parties GB
SNP
BNP
Other parties NI
Plaid Cymru
Sinn Féin
DUP
UUP
SDLP
Percentage of votes
Note: United Kingdom, EU; 2014
Source(s): European Parliament
Results in the European Parliament elections in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2014, by national party
EU Parliament elections: results in the UK in 2014, by national party
8
Lead-up
331
232
56
8
8
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Conservative
Labour
Scottish National Party
Liberal Democrat
Democratic Unionist Party
Sinn Fein
Social Democratic & Labour Party
Plaid Cymru
Ulster Unionist Party
Green
UKIP
Others
Seats won
Note: United Kingdom; May 7, 2015
Source(s): BBC
Seats won in the United Kingdom (UK) general election 2015, by party2015 United Kingdom (UK) general election results, by party
9
Lead-up
50
24
2
1
-1
-1
-26
-49
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Scottish National Party
Conservative
Ulster Unionist Party
UKIP
Alliance Party
Sinn Fein
Labour
Liberal Democrat
Net seat loss/gain
Note: United Kingdom; May 7, 2015
Source(s): BBC
Net seat losses/gains in the United Kingdom (UK) general election in May 2015, by party2015 United Kingdom (UK) general election: net seat losses/gains, by party
10
Lead-up
9,5%
3,1%
2,8%
1,5%
0,8%
-15,2%
-40,0% -20,0% 0,0% 20,0% 40,0% 60,0% 80,0% 100,0%
UKIP
Scottish National Party
Green Party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Change in vote share
Note: United Kingdom; May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2015
Source(s): BBC
Change in total vote share in the United Kingdom (UK) general election from 2010 to 2015, by party
2015 United Kingdom (UK) general election: change in vote share from 2010, by party
11
Lead-up
21%20%
18%
20% 20%
22%21%
30%29% 29%
31%
34%33%
32%
35%34%
25%
28% 28%27% 27%
17%
25%
18%
21%
17%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
January 27-28 February 3-4 February 21-22 April 11-12 April 25-26 May 30-31 May 23-24 June 5-6
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Good for jobs Bad for jobs No difference Don't know
Note: United Kingdom; January 27 to June 6, 2016; ~2,000 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on British jobs if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
UK/EU referendum opinion: effect on job market 2016
12
Lead-up
61%
32%
28%
86%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); April 13-14, 2015; 18 years and older; 1,842 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Share of respondents stating 'immigration and asylum' as one of the most important issues facing Great Britain as of April 2015, by voting intention
Immigration and asylum as an important national issue in Great Britain 2015, by voting intention
13
Lead-up
58%
6,1%
47%
32,5%
86,3%
40,9%
8,8%7,1%
10,7%
0,6% 0,5% 1,4%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Voted "Yes" in the 1975 referendum Voted "No" in the 1975 referendum All respondents
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Yes, the UK should remain a memeber of the EU No, the UK should leave the EU Undecided Wouldn't vote
Note: United Kingdom; June 15-20, 2015; 18 years and older; 2,608 respondents
Source(s): Federation of Self Employed & Small Businesses (UK)
If you were eligible at the time, how did you vote in the UK European Economic Community membership referendum in 1975?
Voting intention of 1975 Economic Community membership balloters in the UK as of 2015
14
Lead-up
6% 5% 4% 5% 5%
32%30%
26%
29%
37% 36% 37% 38%
20%
24%
5%
31%
34%
57%
60%
63% 63% 62%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
Jun 2015 Oct 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Very confident Fairly confident Not very confident Not confident at all Don`t know Total confident Total not confident
Note: United Kingdom; February 13-16, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,001 respondents
Source(s): Ipsos
Public confidence levels in David Cameron to get a good deal for the UK in the EU referendum
Perceived confidence levels in David Cameron to get a good deal for the UK as of 2016
15
Lead-up
28%
8%
52%
12%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Too early Too late The right time Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom; February 13-16, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,001 respondents
Source(s): Ipsos
Public opinion: Is it the right time to hold a referendum on the EU?Timing of EU exit referendum according to British public in the UK 2016
16
Lead-up
44%
32%
28%
28%
27%
23%
22%
21%
20%
16%
4%
1%
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0% 45,0% 50,0%
David Cameron
Boris Johnson
Theresa May
George Oscourne
Jeremy Corbyn
Stuart Rose
Nicola Sturgeon
Lord Nigel Lawson
Nigel Farage
None of them
Don't know
Other
Share of respondents
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); February 13-16, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,001 respondents
Source(s): Ipsos
Out of the following, if any, who will be important to you in deciding how to vote in the referendum on European Union membership? Please choose all that apply.
Perceived importance of MP‘s in EU referendum decision in Great Britain 2016
17
Lead-up
35%
37%
30%
32%
35%36% 36%
40%
13%
11%
14%
17% 17%16%
19%
34%
36%
30%29%
26%
15%16%
24%
22%
17%
19%
16%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
January 27-28 February 3-4 February 21-23 April 11-12 April 25-26 May 23-24 May 30-31 June 5-6
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Good for NHS Bad for NHS No difference Don't know
Note: United Kingdom; January 27 to June 6, 2016; 18 years and older; ~2,000 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on the NHS if the UK left the European Union?
UK/EU referendum opinion: predicted change to the NHS 2016
18
Lead-up
10% 10%
28%
14% 14%
24%
9%
13%
34%
15%
9%
20%
7%
12%
49%
11%
8%
13%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
A lot better off A little better off About the same A little worse off A lot worse off Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
18-34 35-54 55+
Note: United Kingdom; April 26-29, 2016; 18 years and older; 2,005 respondents
Source(s): Opinium
Do you think your household will be better or worse off financially if Britain leaves the European Union?
Perception of the effect of a "Brexit" on the personal finances in the UK 2016, by age
19
Lead-up
18%
7%
18%
8%9%
10% 10% 10%
14%
12%
14% 14%
19%18% 18%
20%
42% 42% 42%43% 43%
42% 42%41%
26%
38%
27%
35%
29%
31% 31%
29%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
January 27 - 28 February 21 - 23 February 3 - 4 April 11 - 12 April 25 - 26 May 23 - 24 May 30 - 31 June 5 - 6
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Good Bad No difference Don't know
Note: United Kingdom; January 27 to June 6, 2016; 18 years and older; ~2,000 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Would there be a good or a bad effect on people`s pensions if the UK left the European Union?
UK/EU referendum opinion: predicted change to pensions 2016
20
Lead-up
16%
21%
49%
14%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
More risk Less risk No difference Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom; June 5-6, 2016; 2,001 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Do you think Britain would be more or less at risk from terrorism if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
UK/EU referendum opinion: potential change to threat of terrorism 2016
21
Lead-up
15%
37%36%
13%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
More influence Less influence No difference Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom; June 5-6, 2016; 2,001 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Do you think Britain would have more or less influence in the world if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
UK/EU referendum opinion: predicted effect on world influence 2016
22
Lead-up
10%
33%
37%
20%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
Better off Worse off No difference Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom; June 16-17, 2016
Source(s): YouGov
Would you personally be better or worse off if the UK left the European Union?UK/EU referendum opinion: effect on personal finance situation 2016
23
Lead-up
32%
27%
31%
27%
32%
23%
32%
38%
37%
34%
31%
31%
29%
29%
16%
18%
18%
28%
20%
22%
13%
13%
17%
18%
15%
17%
26%
26%
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0%
Scotland
North West
South East/ East of England
North East/ Yorkshire/Humber
Wales & West
Greater London
East & West Midlands
Share of respondents
Don't know It would make no difference Worse off financially Better off financially
Note: United Kingdom; February 11-15, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,120 respondents
Source(s): TNS BMRB
Perceived personal financial benefits of leaving the EU by the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2016, by region
Personal benefits of leaving the EU during Brexit in the UK 2016, by region
24
Lead-up
27%
20%
15%14%
24%
19%
15%16%
30%
40%
33%
31%
20%21%
37%
39%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
Men - Employed Men - Unemployed Women - Employed Women - Unemployed
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Better off financially Worse off financially It would make no difference Don't know
Note: United Kingdom; February 11-15, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,120 respondents
Source(s): TNS BMRB
Perceived personal financial benefits of leaving the EU in the United Kingdom (UK) 2016, by employment and gender
Perceived personal benefits of leaving the EU in the UK 2016, by employment & gender
25
Lead-up
1 INTRODUCTION
2 LEAD-UP
3 THE REFERENDUM
4 POLITICAL FALLOUT
5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
6 BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
7 APPENDIX
TABLE OF CONTENTS
THE REFERENDUM
In the lead-up to Britain’s EU membership referendum no side managed to gain a clear advantage in the polls, and witheverything to play for, both sides campaigned hard. David Cameron and the remain camp focused on the potentialeconomic impact of Brexit, while leave campaigners highlighted the cost of Britain’s EU membership, claiming that 350million pounds a week in recuperated costs could be spent on the NHS. This last claim was famously written on the side ofthe leave sides red ‘battle’ bus’, which was driven around the country throughout the campaign. Recognizing that the votewould be close, there was a concerted push to register younger voters in time, particularly by the remain side whobelieved they could swing the vote in their favor.
Throughout the campaign the rhetoric of both sides steadily became more vitriolic, with the remain side chastised forsome of its more melodramatic claims, dubbed ‘Project Fear’ by detractors. The leave figurehead and leader of UKIP, NigelFarage faced widespread criticism when he unveiled an anti-immigration poster which featured a picture of refugees andthe words ‘breaking point’ on it. On the same day, the Labour MP Jo Cox was assassinated on the streets of herconstituency by a far-right extremist, putting a temporary halt to the campaigning just one week before the referendum.
On June 23, 2016 the referendum went ahead as planned and attracted a huge-voter turnout. As the results came inovernight, it became clear that leave had won a shock victory gaining 51.9 percent of the votes. Throughout England andWales the leave vote was victorious, with London being the only region where there were more remain voters. In Scotlandand Northern Ireland, the reverse was true, giving fresh impetus to the question of Scottish Independence. A majority of18- to 24-year-olds had also voted to remain in the European Union, with older voters more likely to have voted to leave.Following the victory of the leave campaign, Brexit was now a reality, but how it would be executed was yet to be decided.
27
28
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Remain Leave Wouldn't vote Don't know
Note: United Kingdom; January 27 to June 22, 2016; 18 years and older; 3,766 respondents (last wave)
Source(s): YouGov
EU referendum voting intention in the United Kingdom (UK) from January to June 2016UK voting intention on EU referendum in 2016
29
The Referendum
48,1%
51,9%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Remain Leave
Sh
are
of vo
ters
Note: United Kingdom; June 23-24, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
Results of United Kingdom (UK) EU referendum on June 23, 2016UK 'Brexit' referendum results 2016
30
The Referendum
16.141.241
17.410.742
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
20000000
Remain Leave
Num
be
r o
f vo
tes
Note: United Kingdom; June 23-24, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
Results of United Kingdom (UK) EU 'Brexit' referendum on June 23, 2016EU 'Brexit' referendum results, by number of votes
31
The Referendum
2.567.965
1.966.925
1.880.367
1.755.687
1.669.711
1.580.937
1.513.232
1.475.479
1.018.322
854.572
778.103
349.442
2.391.718
1.699.020
1.448.616
1.207.175
1.503.019
1.158.298
2.263.519
1.033.036
1.661.191
772.347
562.595
440.707
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000
South East
North West
East
West Midlands
South West
Yorkshire and the Humber
London
East Midlands
Scotland
Wales
North East
Northern Ireland
Number of votes
Leave Remain
Note: United Kingdom; June 23-24, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
Number of votes cast in the EU referendum in the United Kingdom (UK) on June 23, 2016, by region and vote
2016 EU referendum: number of votes for "Remain" and "Leave", by region
32
The Referendum
48% 47%
62%
48%
56%
52% 53% 38% 53% 44%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Britain England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
Sh
are
of vo
ters
Remain Leave
Note: United Kingdom; June 24, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
EU referendum results of the United Kingdom (UK) in 2016, by nationUnited Kingdom (UK): EU referendum results in 2016, by nation
33
The Referendum
75,56%73,59% 72,7% 72,28% 71,5% 71,39% 70,86% 70,83% 70,65% 69,87%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
Boston South Holland Castle Point Thurrock Great Yarmouth Fenland Mansfield Bolsover East Lindsey North EastLincolnshire
Sh
are
of le
ave
vo
ters
Note: United Kingdom; June 23, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
Leading ten areas that voted to leave in Britain's referendum on European Union membership in 2016, by proportion of leave voters
Leading areas that voted to leave in the Brexit referendum 2016
34
The Referendum
95,91%
78,62% 78,48%75,57% 75,29% 75,22% 75,03% 74,94% 74,44% 74,32%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Gibraltar Lambeth Hackney Haringey City of London Islington Wandsworth Camden City of Edingburgh East Renfrewshire
Sh
are
of re
ma
in v
ote
rs
Note: United Kingdom; June 23, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
Leading ten areas that voted to remain in Britain's referendum on European Union membership in 2016, by proportion of remain voters
Leading areas that voted to remain in the Brexit referendum 2016
35
The Referendum
25,6%
33,4%
39,6% 40% 40,1%41,8%
49,3% 49,7% 50,4% 50,99%
74,4% 66,6% 60,4% 60% 59,9% 58,2% 50,7% 50,3% 49,6% 49,01%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Edinburgh Glasgow Manchester Cardiff London Liverpool Newcastle Leeds Birmingham Sheffield
Sh
are
of le
ave
vo
ters
Leave Remain
Note: United Kingdom; June 23, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
Percentage of leave and remain votes in selected major cities in the United Kingdom (UK) in the EU referendum in 2016
Brexit: voting outcome of major UK cities in the EU referendum 2016
36
The Referendum
61%
53%
39% 38%
80%
54%
40%
34%
39% 47% 61% 62% 20% 46% 60% 66%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Male 18-24 Male 25-49 Male 50-64 Male 65+ Female 18-24 Female 25-49 Female 50-64 Female 65+
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Remain Leave
Note: United Kingdom; June 23-24, 2016; 18 years and older; 5,455 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Distribution of EU Referendum votes in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2016, by age group and gender
Distribution of EU Referendum votes 2016, by age group and gender
37
The Referendum
26%
45%
56%54%
65%
74%
55%
44%46%
35%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
Degree Higher ed. below degree A level or equivilant O level/CSE No qualification
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Leave Remain
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 2016; 18 years and older; 1,077 respondents
Source(s): NatCen
Referendum voting intentions among adults in Great Britain, by highest educational attainment
UK Referendum decision by highest educational attainment in Great Britain 2016
38
The Referendum
32%
60% 60%
1%
52%
25% 25%
95%
15% 14% 14%
4%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Remain a member of the EU Leave the EU Don't know
Note: United Kingdom; April 25-26 April, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,650 respondents
Source(s): ICM Unlimited
How do you intend to vote in response to the question: should the United Kingdom exit the EU?
EU referendum: voting intention in the UK, by political affiliation
39
The Referendum
52%
48%
34%
31%
34%33%
50%49%
13%
19%
16%
20%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
AB C1 C2 DE
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Social class
Remain a member of the EU Leave the EU Don't know
Note: United Kingdom; February 19-22, 2016; 18 years and older; 2,021 respondents
Source(s): ICM Unlimited
How do you intend to vote in response to the question: should the United Kingdom exit the EU?
EU referendum voting intention in the United Kingdom, by social class
40
The Referendum
6.465.404
5.424.768
5.241.568
4.398.796
4.138.134
4.116.572
3.987.112
3.877.780
3.384.299
2.270.272
1.934.341
1.260.955
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000
South East
London
North West
East
South West
West Midlands
Scotland
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands
Wales
North East
Northern Ireland
Number of eligible voters
Note: United Kingdom; June 23-24, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
Number of citizens entitled to cast a vote during the EU referendum in the United Kingdom (UK) on June 23, 2016, by region
Number of eligible voters in the EU referendum 2016, by region
41
The Referendum
76,8%
76,7%
75,7%
74,2%
72%
71,7%
70,7%
70%
69,7%
69,3%
67,2%
62,7%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0%
South East
South West
East
East Midlands
West Midlands
Wales
Yorkshire and the Humber
North West
London
North East
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Share of voting population
Note: United Kingdom; June 23-24, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
EU referendum voter turnout in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2016, by regionEU referendum voter turnout 2016, by region
42
The Referendum
118.936
138.746155.469
327.442312.588
446.295
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 (until the 9th)
Num
be
r o
f re
gis
tere
d v
ote
rs
Note: United Kingdom; January 1 to June 9, 2016; 18-25 years
Source(s): GOV.UK
Monthly number of under 25-year-olds registering to vote for the EU referendum in the United Kingdom (UK) from January 2016 to June 2016
Monthly amount of under 25's registered to vote for the EU referendum in the UK 2016
43
The Referendum
4.963.110
3.781.204
3.668.627
3.331.312
3.174.909
2.965.369
2.741.172
2.681.179
2.510.496
1.628.054
1.341.387
790.523
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000
South East
London
North West
East
South West
West Midlands
Yorkshire and the Humber
Scotland
East Midlands
Wales
North East
Northern Ireland
Number of ballot papers
Note: United Kingdom; June 23-24, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
Number of ballot papers counted during the EU referendum of the United Kingdom (UK) on June 23, 2016, by region
UK: number of counted ballot papers from the EU referendum 2016, by region
44
The Referendum
4.453
3.427
2.682
2.507
2.329
2.179
1.981
1.937
1.666
1.135
689
374
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
London
South East
North West
West Midlands
East
South West
East Midlands
Yorkshire and the Humber
Scotland
Wales
North East
Northern Ireland
Number of rejected ballots
Note: United Kingdom; June 23-24, 2016
Source(s): The Electoral Commission
Number of rejected ballots from the EU referendum in the United Kingdom (UK) on June 23, 2016, by region
Number of rejected ballots from the EU referendum 2016, by UK region
45
The Referendum
10%
8%
6%
18%
14%
6%
37%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
On polling day/ the day Ifilled out my postal
In the last few days In the last week In the last month Since the beginning of theyear
Longer ago than a year I have always known how Iwould end up voting
Sh
are
ofre
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom; June 21-23, 2016; 12,369 respondents
Source(s): Lord Ashcroft Polls
When did you finally decide how you were going to vote?Point during the EU referendum campaign in which voting intentions were formed 2016
46
The Referendum
34,0%
29,0%
20,0%
4,0% 4,0%
9,0%
2,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
The economy The ability of Britain tomake its own laws
Immigration National security The NHS Other Don't know
Sh
are
ofre
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom; June 24, 2016; 1,069 respondents
Source(s): ComRes
When casting your vote, what was the most important issue in your decision? The impact on...
Most important issue for British voters in the EU referendum in June 2016
47
The Referendum
38%
41%
12%
9%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
More hopeful for the future Less hopeful Neither Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom; June 29-30, 2016; 18-75 years
Source(s): Ipsos
How does the United Kingdom's (UK) decision to leave to European Union make you feel?Voter attitude towards the "Brexit" vote in 2016
48
The Referendum
38%
45%
2%
15%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
More confident Less confident Don't know Neither more nor less confident
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 24, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,069 respondents
Source(s): ComRes
Are you more or less confident about Britain's future today than you were this time last week?
Level of confidence in Britain after the EU referendum in 2016
49
The Referendum
1 INTRODUCTION
2 LEAD-UP
3 THE REFERENDUM
4 POLITICAL FALLOUT
5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
6 BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
7 APPENDIX
TABLE OF CONTENTS
POLITICAL FALLOUT
The political repercussions began almost immediately after the Brexit referendum, with David Cameron resigning on June 24th. There was also pressure on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who had to face down a leadership challenge later that year, following what many regarded as a lackluster campaign to remain in the EU. In Scotland, there were renewed calls for independence from the UK as most Scottish voters had voted to remain in the EU. Despite the initial enthusiasm, support for a second Scottish referendum on independence waned in the months following the vote.
The most important political issue quickly became who would succeed David Cameron as Prime Minister. Boris Johnson was the initial favorite, but it was ultimately Theresa May who inherited the position, along with the task of navigating theBrexit negotiations. Although May had campaigned with Cameron to remain in the EU, she committed herself to honoring the Brexit vote and withdrawing from the single market as well.
May enjoyed popularity in her first months as Prime Minister and felt secure enough in her position to call a General Election for June 8, 2017. The rationale behind the decision was that a larger Conservative majority in parliament would make negotiations with Brussels easier. After announcing the election however, the lead that the Conservatives had enjoyed in the polls began to narrow, especially in the final few weeks of campaigning. Although May and the Conservatives went on to win the election, they lost the highest number of seats and had to arrange an informal alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland to govern. The decision to call a snap election had clearly backfired,but despite this May continued as Prime Minister, albeit in a much weaker position to conduct the Brexit negotiations.
51
52
53
54
57%
38%
5%
62%
31%
7%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
Was right to resign Was wrong to resign Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Voted remain Voted leave
Note: United Kingdom; June 27-29, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,001 Conservative Party Members
Source(s): YouGov
Do you think David Cameron was right or wrong to resign as Prime Minister and party leader?
Conservative Party Members' opinion of David Cameron's resignation by referendum vote
55
Political Fallout
50%
32%
18%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Resign Stay on Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 24, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,069 respondents
Source(s): ComRes
Following the EU referendum, do you think that labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn should resign or stay on in their position?
Public opinion on the resignation of Jeremy Corbyn in Great Britain 2016
56
Political Fallout
57%
26%
17%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Resign Stay on Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 24, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,069 respondents
Source(s): ComRes
Following the EU referendum, do you think that Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne should resign or stay on in their position?
Public opinion on the resignation of George Osborne in Great Britain 2016
57
Political Fallout
19%18%
5%
3% 3% 3%2%
1% 1%0%
44%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
Theresa May Boris Johnson Michael Gove George Osborne Sajid Javid Liam Fox Stephen Crabb Jeremy Hunt Andrea Leadsom Nicky Morgan Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 26-27 June, 2016; 18 years and older; 2,013 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Which of the following do you think would make the best new Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative party?
Public opinion in GB: MPs most suited to run for Prime Minister of the UK 2016
58
Political Fallout
13%
7%
4%2% 2% 2%
1%0% 0%
11%
57%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Hillary Benn Chuka Umunna Yvette Cooper Dan Jarvis Tom Watson John McDonnell Angela Eagle Lisa Nandy Owen Smith Someone else Don`t know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 26-27 June, 2016; 18 years and older; 2,013 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
If Jeremy Corbyn does resign, which of the following do you think would be best to replace him as leader of the Labour party?
Public opinion on the MPs most suited to run for leader of the labour party 2016
59
Political Fallout
50,6%
42,2%
31,8%
36,7%
38,7%51,7%
12,7% 19,1% 16,5%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
18-34 35-54 55+
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Scotland should hold a second referendum Scotland should not hold a second independence referendum Don't know
Note: United Kingdom; June 24-25, 2016; 18 years and older; 1,033 respondents
Source(s): Survation
Nicola Sturgeon has said that the EU Referendum result was "democratically unacceptable" due to Scotland facing the prospect of leaving the EU despite the majority of Scots voting in favor of remain. Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?
United Kingdom (UK) public opinion of a second Scottish referendum 2016, by age
60
Political Fallout
26%
14%
27%
11%
17%
4%
16%
13%
24%
19%
23%
5%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Leave voters Remain voters
Note: United Kingdom; June 29-30, 2016; 18-75 years; 974 respondents
Source(s): Ipsos
58
To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "There should be another general election before negotiations start so that people can vote on political parties' plans for Britain`s future relationship with the European Union"
Voter attitude to a General Election post referendum in the United Kingdom 2016
61
Political Fallout
42%
32%
26%
46%
28%26%
49%
32%
20%
56%
26%
18%
67%
23%
11%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
Yes No Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Note: United Kingdom; October 18-21, 2016; 18 years and older; 2,005 respondents
Source(s): Opinium
Overall, would you say Theresa May's first 100 days as leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister have been a success?
Opinion in the United Kingdom of Theresa May's first 100 days in charge, by age
62
Political Fallout
39%40% 40%
44%43%
48%
44%46%
43% 43%42% 42%
26%24% 24%
25% 25%24%
31%30%
38%36%
38%
10% 10%11%
10%11%
12%11% 11%
10%9%
7%9%
14% 14%15%
7%6%
5%4% 4% 4% 4%4% 4% 4%
3% 3%2% 2% 2%
1%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
January 3-4 January 23-24 February 12-13 March 8-9 March 26-27 April 18-19 April 27-28 May 9-10 May 24-25 May 25-26 May 30-31 June 1-2
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Green
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); January to May 2017; 18 years and older
Source(s): YouGov
Voting intention of adults in Great Britain regarding the United Kingdom (UK) general election on June 8, 2017
Voting intention of GB adults for the UK 2017 general election
63
Political Fallout
318
262
35
12 10 7 4 1 00
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Conservative Labour Scottish NationalParty
Liberal Democrats Democratic UnionistParty
Sinn Féin Plaid Cymru Green Party UKIP
Num
be
r o
f se
ats
Note: United Kingdom; June 9, 2017
Source(s): Financial Times
Number of seats won by political party in the general election in the United Kingdom (UK) in June 2017
Number of seats won in the UK general election in 2017, by party
64
Political Fallout
42,2%
40%
7,4%
3%
1,8%
1,6%
0,9%
0,7%
0,5%
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0% 45,0%
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Scottish National Party
UKIP
Green Party
Democratic Unionist Party
Sinn Féin
Plaid Cymru
Share of votes
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 9, 2017
Source(s): BBC
Vote share of political parties in general election in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2017General election: vote share of political parties in the UK 2017
65
Political Fallout
13.669.883
12.878.460
2.371.910
977.569
594.068
525.435
292.316
238.915
164.466
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Scottish National Party
UKIP
Green Party
Democratic Unionist Party
Sinn Féin
Plaid Cymru
Number of votes
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 9, 2017; 46,8438,96; voter turnout
Source(s): BBC
Number of votes cast for political parties during the general election in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2017
General election: number of votes for political parties in the UK 2017
66
Political Fallout
9,5%
5,5%
0,3%
0,2%
-0,1%
-0,5%
-1,7%
-2,1%
-10,8%
-15,0% -10,0% -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0%
Labour
Conservative
Democratic Unionist Party
Sinn Féin
Plaid Cymru
Liberal Democrats
Scottish National Party
Green Party
UKIP
Change of vote shares
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 9, 2017
Source(s): BBC
Percentage change to party vote share resulting from the general election in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2017
General election: change to party vote share in the UK 2017
67
Political Fallout
30
4 3 2 1 0
-1
-13
-21
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Labour Liberal Democrats Sinn Féin Democratic UnionistParty
Plaid Cymru Green Party UKIP Conservative Scottish NationalParty
Cha
ng
e o
f se
ats
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 9, 2017
Source(s): BBC
Change in the number of parliamentary seats after the general election in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2017
Change of seats in parliament after general election in United Kingdom (UK) 2017
68
Political Fallout
19%22% 23%
29%
39%
47%
58%
69%
66% 62%63%
55% 44% 37% 27%19%
9% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7%7%2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3%2%
4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 6%4%
4%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
18-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Scottish National Party (SNP) Other
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 9-13, 2017; 18 years and older; 48,911 voters
Source(s): YouGov
Distribution of General Election votes in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2017, by age groupDistribution of General Election votes in the UK 2017, by age group
69
Political Fallout
39% 40%
19%
63%
28%
36%
45% 44% 64%
24%
54%48%
8% 8% 10% 7%
6%6%
8% 7%8% 7% 12% 10%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Full Time Part Time Student Retired Unemployed Not working
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Other
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 9-13, 2017; 18 years and older; 48,911 voters
Source(s): YouGov
Voter turnout of adults in Great Britain during the 2017 UK general election, by employment status
2017 general election voter turnout in Great Britain, by employment status
70
Political Fallout
32%
49%
11%
4%
1%
2%
45%
39%
7%
4%
2%
1%
55%
33%
5%
2%
3%
1%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0%
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrat
Scottish National Party (SNP)
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Green
Share of respondents
High (Degree or above) Medium Low (GSCE or below)
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 9-13, 2017; 18 years and older; 48,911 voters
Source(s): YouGov
Party voted for by Great British adults in the general elections in 2017, by level of education
General election: party voted for in Great Britain 2017, by education level
71
Political Fallout
64%
24%
12%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0%
Wrong
Right
Don't know
Share of respondents
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 9-10, 2017; 18 years and older; 1,720 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Distribution of opinion in Great Britain regarding the righteousness of Theresa May's decision to hold a snap general election in June 2017
Public opinion on May's decision for snap general election in Great Britain in 2017
72
Political Fallout
31%
41,8%
27,2%
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0% 45,0%
Theresa May
Jeremy Corbyn
Dont know
Share of respondents
Note: United Kingdom; June 2-3, 2017; 18 years and older
Source(s): Survation
Which of the following do you think has had the more successful election campaign?Perception of most successful party during election campaign UK 2017
73
Political Fallout
47%
30%
23%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Don`t know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom; June 2-3, 2017; 18 years and older
Source(s): Survation
Brexit negotiations are due to begin on June 19. Which of the following leaders do you think would best represent the United Kingdom's interests in these negotiations?
Political party leader best suited for leading Brexit negotiations UK 2017
74
Political Fallout
1 INTRODUCTION
2 LEAD-UP
3 THE REFERENDUM
4 POLITICAL FALLOUT
5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
6 BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
7 APPENDIX
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ECONOMIC IMPACT
Global financial markets reacted severely to the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, with the British Pound (GBP)consistently falling in value against the Euro between June 23 and 27, 2016. Stock markets around the world also felt theimpact, with the FTSE 100 losing three percent of its value on June 24, 2016. A major argument of the remain side hadbeen that the economic risks associated with Brexit were not worth it, but even leave supporters expected there to beshort term economic shocks.
In some ways Britain’s economy did stabilize after the initial shockwave it inevitably sent around the financial world.Economic growth slowed, but not as severely as feared, with gross domestic product growing at 1.9 percent in 2016compared with 2.3 percent in 2015. By early 2018, however, the UK’s economy was one of the slowest growing economiesin Europe, with quarterly growth estimated to be as low as 0.1 percent. The estimated loss Brexit would cause to GDP inthe longer run had been forecasted to be as much as 3.3 percent by 2020 before the referendum. In the event of a no-dealBrexit, the GDP value lost by 2030 could be as much as 3.9 percent. The inflation rate also reflected the economic turmoilcaused by the Brexit vote, rising consistently following the referendum, before stabilizing in 2018.
These mid-term figures on GDP growth and inflation may be poor indicators on Britain’s long-term economic prospects, atleast until Britain leaves the European Union and the exact nature of its future trading relationship becomes clear.
76
77
-1,3%
-3,3%
-2,5%
-3,5%
-3,0%
-2,5%
-2,0%
-1,5%
-1,0%
-0,5%
0,0%
2018 2020 2023
Imp
act o
n r
ea
l G
DP
Note: United Kingdom; April 27, 2016
Source(s): OECD
Forecasted short-term effects of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018-2023
Forecasted effect of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) 2018-2023
Economic Impact
78
1,29 1,3 1,3 1,31
1,241,2 1,21 1,21 1,21
1,19 1,19 1,18 1,17 1,18 1,17 1,18 1,19 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,19 1,2 1,2 1,19 1,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
June 20 June 21 June 22 June 23 June 24 June 27 June 28 June 29 June 30 July 1 July 4 July 5 July 6 July 7 July 8 July 11 July 12 July 13 July 14 July 15 July 18 July 19 July 20 July 21 July 22 July 25
Exch
an
ge
ra
te
Note: United Kingdom; June 20 to July 21, 2016
Source(s): ECB
Daily post-Brexit currency exchange rates of the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the Euro (EUR) June to July 2016
Post-Brexit currency exchange rates of Pound Sterling to Euro
79
Economic Impact
0,860,89
0,870,84
0,86 0,85 0,860,84
0,87 0,88 0,890,92
0,88 0,88 0,88 0,89 0,88 0,88 0,87 0,88 0,88 0,89 0,89 0,9 0,89
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 Jun '17 Jul '17 Aug '17Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 Jul '18 Aug '18Sep '18
Exch
an
ge
ra
te
Note: Europe, United Kingdom; September 2016 to September 2018
Source(s): ECB
75
Euro (EUR) to British pound (GBP) monthly exchange rate from September 2016 to September 2018
Euro to British pound monthly exchange rate 2016-2018
Economic Impact
80
-12,5%
-12,4%
-8,0%
-7,9%
-6,8%
-4,1%
-3,6%
-3,4%
-3,2%
-3,1%
-2,9%
-2,8%
-14,0% -12,0% -10,0% -8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0%
FTSE MIB
Ibex 35
CAC 40
Nikkei 225
Xetra Dax
Nasdaq Composite
S&P 500
Dow Jones Industrial
FTSE 100
Kospi
Hang Seng
Bovespa
Index performance
Note: Worldwide; June 24, 2016
Source(s): Financial Times
Impact of Brexit on selected stock indices as of June 24, 2016Reaction of stock exchanges to Brexit 2016
81
Economic Impact
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GD
P in
mill
ion
GB
P
Note: United Kingdom; January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2016
Source(s): Office for National Statistics (UK)
Gross domestic product at current market prices of the United Kingdom (UK) from 2000 to 2016 (in million GBP)
United Kingdom: gross domestic product (GDP) 2000 to 2016
82
Economic Impact
3,7%
2,5% 2,5%
3,3%
2,4%
3,1%
2,5% 2,4%
-0,5%
-4,2%
1,7%1,5% 1,5%
2,1%
3,1%
2,3%
1,9% 1,8%
-5,0%
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Gro
wth
ra
te
Note: United Kingdom; 2000 to 2017
Source(s): Office for National Statistics (UK)
Gross domestic product (GDP) year on year growth in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2000 to 2017
United Kingdom GDP growth 2000-2017
83
Economic Impact
0,8%0,9%
1%
1,3% 1,3%
1,5%
1,8%1,9%
2,3% 2,3%
2,6%2,7%
2,6% 2,6%2,7%
2,8% 2,8% 2,8%2,7% 2,7%
2,5%
2,3%2,2%
2,3% 2,3%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 Jun '17 Jul '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18
Infla
tio
n r
ate
Note: United Kingdom; June 2016 to June 2018
Source(s): Office for National Statistics (UK)
Monthly inflation rate: percentage change on a year earlier of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United Kingdom (UK) from June 2016 to June 2018
Inflation rate (CPI) in the United Kingdom (UK) 2016-2018
84
Economic Impact
2,2%
2% 2% 2%
2,4% 2,4%2,5%
2,2%
2,4% 2,4%
2,8%
2,5%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
2016 2017 2018 2019
Fo
reca
ste
d C
PI
ch
an
ge
CPI (%YoY) - no referendum CPI - UK remains in EU CPI - UK leaves EU
Note: United Kingdom; February 5, 2015
Source(s): ING
CPI forecast profiles under different UK referendum to stay or exit the EU from 2016 to 2019, by scenario
CPI forecast profiles under different UK/EU referendum scenarios 2016-2019
85
Economic Impact
-19.855 -21.061 -20.854 -20.355 -20.082 -19.348 -20.114 -19.085
35.063 36.479 37.90539.968 40.099
41.985 42.033 42.537
57.94460.427
62.47864.364 63.856
65.514 65.407 65.397
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18
Va
lue
of tr
ad
e in
mill
ion
GB
P
Trade balance Total exports Total imports
Note: United Kingdom; Q2 2016 to Q1 2018
Source(s): Office for National Statistics (UK)
United Kingdom (UK) total EU trade in goods from 2nd quarter 2016 to 1st quarter 2018, by trade value (in million GBP)
United Kingdom total EU trade in goods 2016-2018, by trade value
86
Economic Impact
106,4 106,3 106,1 105,9 105,6 105,5 105,6 106,1 106,5 106,6 106,9 107,2 107,3 107,6 108,3 108,4 108,6 109,3 109,5 110 110,3 110,4 110,4 110,5 110,9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 Jun '17 Jul '17 Aug '17
Pro
du
ce
r P
rice
In
de
x (
20
10
=1
00
)
Note: United Kingdom; August 2015 to August 2017
Source(s): Office for National Statistics (UK)
Producer Price Index (PPI): Net output prices of manufactured products in the United Kingdom from August 2015 to August 2017
UK Producer Price Index (PPI): Monthly net output prices of manufactured products
87
Economic Impact
0,4
1,6
2,8
4,5
0,7 0,7
-0,3
-1,4-0,8
-10
-6,3
-0,2
-3,1
-7
-5,6
-3,8-4,2
-3,8
-4,9
-5,6
-6,4
-7,5
-6,4
-3,7
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17
Ind
ex s
co
re*
Note: United Kingdom; October 2015 to September 2017
Source(s): Eurostat
Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the United Kingdom (UK) from October 2015 to September 2017
Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in the UK 2015-2017
88
Economic Impact
100,5 100,64 100,7 100,64 100,6 100,66 100,84 101,11 101,3 101,5 101,6 101,63 101,65 101,84 102,06 102,2 102,1 101,2 101,96 102 102,01 101,86 101,5 101,2 101,16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 Jun '17 Jul '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18
Ind
ex s
co
re*
Note: United Kingdom; April 2016 to April 2018
Source(s): OECD
Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the United Kingdom (UK) from April 2016 to April 2018
Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the United Kingdom (UK) 2016-2018
89
Economic Impact
6361,16242,3
6097,16241,9
6504,3
6781,56954,2
7142,87263,4 7203,9
7312,77430,6 7493,1
7687,8
7231,9
7509,3
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Oct'15
Nov'15
Dec'15
Jan'16
Feb'16
Mar'16
Apr'16
May'16
Jun'16
Jul'16
Aug'16
Sep'16
Oct'16
Nov'16
Dec'16
Jan'17
Feb'17
Mar'17
Apr'17
May'17
Jun'17
Jul'17
Aug'17
Sep'17
Oct'17
Nov'17
Dec'17
Jan'18
Feb'18
Mar'18
Apr'18
Mo
nth
ly o
f th
e F
TS
E 1
00
In
de
x in
po
ints
Note: United Kingdom; October 2015 to April 2018
Source(s): FTSE
Monthly closing of the FTSE 100 Index capital return (London Stock Exchange) from October 2015 to April 2018 (in index value points)
Monthly development of the FTSE 100 Index capital return 2015-2018
90
Economic Impact
16305,817090,6
18154,417677,4
1668317420,7
16487,716926,1 17184,7 17282,9
17871,4 17545,818147,8
18971,8
19972,2 19781,1 19874,8 19952,9 20243,619460,5
20285,1
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Jan'15
Feb'15
Mar'15
Apr'15
May'15
Jun'15
Jul'15
Aug'15
Sep'15
Oct'15
Nov'15
Dec'15
Jan'16
Feb'16
Mar'16
Apr'16
May'16
Jun'16
Jul'16
Aug'16
Sep'16
Oct'16
Nov'16
Dec'16
Jan'17
Feb'17
Mar'17
Apr'17
May'17
Jun'17
Jul'17
Aug'17
Sep'17
Oct'17
Nov'17
Dec'17
Jan'18
Feb'18
Mar'18
Apr'18
Mo
nth
ly o
f th
e F
TS
E 2
50
In
de
x in
po
ints
Note: United Kingdom; January 2015 to April 2018
Source(s): FTSE
Monthly closing of the FTSE 250 Index (London Stock Exchange) between January 2015 to April 2018 (in index value points)
Monthly closing of the FTSE 250 Index - Capital returns 2015-2018
91
Economic Impact
0,68
0,73
0,780,8
0,72
0,730,75
0,780,72
0,90,88
0,85
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
2016 2017 2018 2019
Fo
reca
ste
d e
xch
an
ge
ra
te
EUR/GBP (year end) - no referendum EUR/GBP - UK remains in EU EUR/GBP - UK leaves EU
Note: United Kingdom; February 2015
Source(s): ING
Forecasted Euro (EUR) to Pound sterling (GBP) exchange rate profiles under Brexit referendum from 2016 to 2019, by scenario
Forecasted EUR GBP exchange rate profiles under different Brexit scenarios 2016-2019
92
Economic Impact
3,9%
3,8%
1,5%
1,1%
1%
0,9%
0,9%
0,6%
0,6%
0,5%
0,4%
0,4%
0,4%
0,4%
0,4%
0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% 4,5%
United Kingdom
Ireland
European Union
Netherlands
Denmark
Beligum
Czechia
Sweden
Hungary
Germany
Greece
Slovakia
Portugal
Poland
Austria
Estimated percentage fall in GDP
Note: Europe; 2018
Source(s): The Guardian; IMF
Estimated loss to gross domestic product (GDP) in a no-deal Brexit scenario by 2030, by country
Estimated GDP loss by 2030 in a no-deal Brexit scenario
93
Economic Impact
Current No Deal**
Ireland Beef 0 39.6
Ireland Cheddar 0 44.1
France Apples 0 15.5
France Wine 0 4
Netherlands Tomatoes 0 21
Italy Handbags 0 3
Italy Mozarrella 0 45.5
Morocco Swimwear 0 12
Pakistan Bed Linen 0 11.8
Vietnam Handbags 0 3
Mexico Rasberries 0 9.2
China Furniture 1.2 1.2
Chile Wine 1.3 4
China Dolls 1.9 1.9
China Handbags 3 3
Note: United Kingdom; 2016
Source(s): British Retail Consortium
Current and potential import tariffs for goods entering the United Kingdom (UK) if no agreement is reached following Brexit as of 2016, by country of origin and product type
Brexit: potential import tariff changes in the UK 2016, by country and product type
94
Economic Impact
-2,72%
-5,14%
-7,7%
-9,0%
-8,0%
-7,0%
-6,0%
-5,0%
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
Optimistic scenario Central scenario Pessimistic scenario
Cha
ng
e in
re
al G
DP
Note: United Kingdom; April 27, 2016
Source(s): OECD
Forecasted long-term effects of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030, by scenario
Forecasted effect of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030
95
Economic Impact
-1.500
-3.200
-5.000
-6000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
Optimistic scenario Central scenario Pessimistic scenario
GB
P c
ost e
qu
iva
len
t p
er
ho
use
ho
ld
Note: United Kingdom; April 27, 2016; difference from baseline.
Source(s): OECD
Forecasted long-term effects of the Brexit on GBP per household in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030, by scenario
Forecasted effect of Brexit on GBP per household in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030
96
Economic Impact
1 INTRODUCTION
2 LEAD-UP
3 THE REFERENDUM
4 POLITICAL FALLOUT
5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
6 BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
7 APPENDIX
TABLE OF CONTENTS
BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
On March 29, 2017 the British Prime-Minister Theresa May formally triggered Article 50 and began the two-year processfor the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. While there has been some progress in the negotiations, and apotential transitional period has been agreed upon, several problems remain unresolved. The issue of the UK’s border withthe Republic of Ireland, and the UK’s future customs arrangement with the EU are both significant hurdles. As ofSeptember 2018, the prospect of a deal being reached in time seems uncertain. The issue of Europe, once relativelyunimportant to the British, is now seen by 45 percent of adults as the most important issue facing the country.
Within Britain the political cost for those in power has been high. Theresa May’s net satisfaction score has declinedsignificantly, especially after her ill-fated decision to call a general election in June 2017. While May was initially able tomaintain party unity, two prominent Eurosceptic cabinet ministers, David Davis and Boris Johnson resigned within days ofeach other in July 2018. Both were unhappy with May’s proposals at Chequers and called for a tougher stance withBrussels. Johnson made it known he thought Donald Trump would make a success of Brexit, something 51 percent of leavevoters agreed with him on. The hardline wing of the Conservative Party led by Jacob Rees-Mogg immediately rejected theproposals, while a survey of British adults at the time put support for a no-deal Brexit at 28 percent. The reception to theproposals from Brussels has also been lukewarm, leaving the way forward unclear and with little time to maneuver.
Due to the uncertainty surrounding the future, the number of UK citizens becoming citizens of other EU countries has risendramatically. Calls for a second referendum have also increased, with 42 percent of people favoring one in July 2018. Withso much left undecided, the last months of 2018 will be crucial in deciding what the UK’s relationship with the EuropeanUnion will look like.
98
99
100
101
102
103
Brexit Negotiations
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
EU/Brexit NHS Immigration Defence / Terrorism Economy Crime / Law & Order
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); July 2010 to July 2018; 18 years and older; 1,027 respondents (2018)
Source(s): Ipsos MORI
What do you see as the most important issue facing Britain today?Most important issues facing Great Britain 2008-2018
104
12%
19%
3%
-13%
-16% -17% -17%
-32%
-25% -24%
-17%
1%
-6%
-9%
-17%
-28%
-40,0%
-30,0%
-20,0%
-10,0%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
Nov '16 Feb '17 May '17 Aug '17 Nov '17 Feb '18 May '18 Aug '18
Net
sa
tisfc
atio
n s
co
re
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn
Note: United Kingdom; August 6-10, 2018; 18 years and older; 1,481 UK residents
Source(s): BMG research
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Theresa May is doing her job as Prime Minister or Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as Leader of the Opposition?
Net satisfaction scores for Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn 2016-2018
105105
Brexit Negotiations
10%
26%
6%
43%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
It's going well so far It's going badly so far
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Expected it to go well Expected it go badly
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); June 25-26, 2018; 18 years and older; 1,645 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Which of the following comes closest to your view on how well Brexit is going?Perceptions on if Brexit is going badly or not in Great Britain 2018
106
Brexit Negotiations
42%
28%
15%
11%
4%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
Remain No-deal Brexit Brexit with a deal Don't know Would not vote
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); July 16-17, 2018; 18 years and older; 1,657 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Imagine that a Brexit deal was struck along the lines of the proposals that Theresa May has set out, and there was a three-way referendum on whether or not it should go ahead, how would you vote?
Support for no-deal Brexit or different Brexit scenarios in 2018
107
Brexit Negotiations
36%39%
36% 36%
38% 38%39%
37%36%
37%40%
42%43%
41%
43%42%
45%46%
44%45%
47%
41%42%
40%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
Jan 9-10 Jan 15-16 Mar 5-6 Mar 26-27 Apr 9-10 May 13-14 Jun 11-12 Jun 19-20 Jul 5-6 Jul 10-11 Jul 16-17 Jul 25-26
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
resp
on
de
nts
Should Should not
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); July 25-26, 2018; 18 years and older; 1,653 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Once the Brexit negotiations are complete and the terms of Britain's exit from the EU have been agreed, do you think there should or should not be a referendum to accept or reject them?
Levels of support for a second referendum on the terms of Brexit in 2018
108
Brexit Negotiations
49%
13%
30%
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0% 45,0% 50,0%
Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customscontrols on trade between Britain and the European Union
There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is notable to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world
Don't know
Share of respondents
Note: United Kingdom; February 5, 2018; 3228 respondents; UK adults (results weighted to represent GB population)
Source(s): YouGov
When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen?
Preferred post-Brexit deal with the customs union and the United Kingdom (UK) 2018
109
Brexit Negotiations
42%
40%
38%
29%
27%
25%
20%
18%
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0% 45,0%
Allowing British companies to trade with the EU without tariffs or restrictions
Allowing Britain to make its own trade deals with countries outside the EU
Maintaining co-operation between Britain and the EU on security and anti-terrorism
Allowing Britain to control immigration from the EU
Minimising the amount of money the UK has to pay upon leaving the EU
Making sure Britain does not have to obey the rulings of the European Court
Protecting the rights of UK citizens already living in the EU
Preventing a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland
Share of respondents
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); July 23-24, 2018; 18 years and older; 1627 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
What do you think the UK's top priorities for the Brexit negotiations with the EU should be?
Top priorities for the United Kingdom in the Brexit negotiations in 2018
110
Brexit Negotiations
27%
16%15%
13%
7% 7%
25%
45%
35%
22%
31%
45%
41%
20%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
Boris Johnson Jacob Rees-Mogg Ruth Davidson Sajid Javid Michael Gove Jeremy Hunt Someone quite young andable not currently in
government
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Better Worse
Note: United Kingdom; August 17-19, 2018; 18 years and older; 2,021 respondents
Source(s): ICM Unlimited; The Guardian
Would the Conservatives chances of winning the next election be better or worse with the following as leader?
Popular choices for the next leader of the Conservative Party in the UK 2018
111
Brexit Negotiations
1.6071.826
5.056
13.141
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2014 2015 2016 2017
Num
be
r o
f citiz
en
s
Note: United Kingdom, EU; 2014 to 2017
Source(s): BBC; Eurostat
Number of United Kingdom (UK) citizens acquiring citizenship of selected European Union countries from 2014 to 2017
Number of United Kingdom citizens becoming citizens of EU countries 2014-2017
112
Brexit Negotiations
9%
30%
28%
21%
12%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
Very confident Somewhat confident Not very confident Not confident at all Don't know
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Note: United Kingdom; February 5, 2018; 3228 respondents; UK adults; weighted to be representative of the GB population
Source(s): YouGov
How confident do you feel in your understanding of what a customs union is?Knowledge on what a customs union is in the United Kingdom (UK) 2018
113
Brexit Negotiations
20%
26%
33%
37%
59%
56%
63%
56%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
18-24 25-49 50-64 65+
Sh
are
of re
sp
on
de
nts
Favorable Unfavorable
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); July 10-11, 2018; 18 years and older; 1,732 respondents
Source(s): YouGov
Boris Johnson favorability rating in Great Britain in 2018, by age groupBoris Johnson popularity in Great Britain in 2018, by age group
114
Brexit Negotiations
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0%
He makes the world a more dangerous place
He only won the US election due to Russian support
He is a better leader than Theresa May
He would make a success of Brexit
He is doing a good job as President
As President, he is good for the UK
He is generally honest
I would like to see a politician like him as British PM
He speaks for people like me
Percentage of respondents
Leave Remain
Note: United Kingdom (Great Britain); July 6-9, 2018; 18 years and older; 2,013 respondents
Source(s): ICM Unlimited; The Guardian
To what extent do you agree with the following statements about Donald Trump, President of the USA?
British perceptions on Donald Trump in 2018, by leave or remain vote
115
Brexit Negotiations
1 INTRODUCTION
2 LEAD-UP
3 THE REFERENDUM
4 POLITICAL FALLOUT
5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
6 BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
7 APPENDIX
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SOURCES
117
British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)BMG ResearchBNP ParibasComResDeloitteEuropean Central Bank (ECB)European ParliamentEurostatFederation of Self Employed & Small Businesses (UK)FTSEGovernment Digital Service (Gov.UK)GuardianInternational Monetary Fund (IMF)INGIntertrade IrelandIpsosLord Ashcroft PollsNational Centre for Social Research (NatCen)Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)Office for National Statistics (ONS)OpiniumSurvationThe Electoral CommissionThe Financial TimesThe WeekTNS BMRBYougov
June 2017
E-M ail: [email protected] ail: [email protected]
Released: October 2018
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Authors, Imprint, and Disclaimer
E-M ail: [email protected]
Daniel Clark Researcher
Daniel Clark is the Statista specialistfor research on society and politics in the United Kingdom and Europe. He studied History at the University ofDerby, with a focus on the Age ofEnlightenment and modern British society.
Martin Armstrong
Senior Data Journalist
Martin Armstrong started his Statista career as a researcher for society and politics in the United Kingdom. He now works in collaboration with Statista's media partners around the world, providing them with topical infographics covering social, political and economic stories. He studied Psychology in Manchester.
Katrin Kienast
Head of Research UK
Katrin Kienast studied English Literature and Cultural Studies in Oldenburg and Newcastle. As Head ofResearch UK/EU, she is responsible fordeveloping and curating Statista'seditorial content about the United Kingdom and Europe.