brexit coincided with peak inequality causes and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Brexit coincided with peak inequality –
causes and effect?
Professor Danny Dorling
Speaking at The Regional Studies Winter Conference, London.
15th November 2018 1
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Brexit may be key to the future of inequality in the UK, and inequality may have been key to making Brexit(from creating tax-evader-funders to mass-discontent)
• The UK currently has the highest recorded level of income
inequality of any European Country
• This is probably not a reflection of its economic efficiency.
Free markets are often inefficient.
• It may be part of the reason why Brexit is occurring –
creating most of the Leave drivers
• And Brexit may also make such extremes of inequality hard
to sustain for much longer
2
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Introduction
• Lead up – election campaigns spread fear of immigration in 70s, 90s and 00s
• Hostility to EU whipped up, not held up
• Geography of Brexit voters distorted by press
• Inequality had strong impact on vote
• Vote largely influenced by badly understood legacy of having been the largest ever Empire
• 52/48 - the perfect vote for moving forward
3
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British attitudes to immigration
4
Five most important issues facing Britain
Immigration as important issue facing Britain
50%
0%
70%
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Inward migration has been rising in UK as part of global trend
5
Jewish
Windrush
EasternEurope
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Migration to Britain in context
6
100%
0%
Born in Britain
Not born in Britain
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First and second most common young adults 2011 by neighborhood
7
Stoke
White British most common ethnicity of those aged 16-24, other white second
White British / Indian
White British / Pakistani
White British / black Caribbean
White British / Black African
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2014 map of cross-border migration
8
Source: D. Ballas, B. Henning, D. Dorling, The Social Atlas of Europe 2014
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Volatility, austerity and Brexit
9
Source: YouGov
In 2005 50% of who voted UK approved of EU membership; by 2012 this had reversed
This flipped back again for the for 2015 election
Leave was strongest when austerity started
in earnest
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The rise of the right pre Brexit
10
EU election voting by UKWestminster election voting intentions
Share of UK vote for parties to the right of mainstream Conservatives in EU elections
20
04
52.4%
20041999, 2000, 2001, 2002
0
YoY rate of change (%)
Ave
rage
an
nu
al s
up
po
rt (%
)
Domestic support for UKIP and other far right parties Support for far right parties in EU
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Areas which most often voted out were the areas with least immigrants
11
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Who really voted for Brexit?
12
The fall of the empire in US$/GB£ exchange rates…
Voting by age group in 2016 EU referendum
Source: Speed, B (2016) How did different demographic groups vote in the EU referendum? The New Statesman, June 2016
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Correlation between deprivation and Brexit vote by constituency
13
Source: Derived from original colour diagram by Daniel Watts using Chris Hanretty’s estimates of 2017
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Brexit voting by region
14
Deviation of the region’s voting from its share of electorate
Source: In Focus, The 2016 EU Referendum, Hennig & Dorling
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Southern discomfort
15
• Allerdale• Barrow-in-Furness• Blackburn with
Darwen• Blaenau Gwent• Carlisle• Cleveland • Craven• Copeland• Hyndburn• Knowsley• Lancaster
• Derby• Blackpool• Rotherham• Sheffield• Great Yarmouth• Hartlepool • Merthyr Tydfil
• Bolsover• Doncaster• Hull• Chesterfield• Salford• Stoke-on-Trent• Sunderland
• Lincoln• Pendle• Redcar• Ribble Valley• Richmondshire• Rochdale• Rossendale
Rutland• Ryedale• Selby• Scarborough
Essex… Kent… Hampshire…
How the home counties voted compared to the rest of the country
...had more leave voters than: …had more leave voters than: …had more leave voters than:
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10% income
1% income
0.1% income
0.01% income
The fall and rise of inequality…
16
…we are among the most unequal OECD states in the world today
Despite closing the equality gap for 60 years after WW1…
(%) Highest rise in inequality in Europe since the 1970s
Gini Coefficient of income inequality, OECD countries, 2015
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India exports to UK nearly double what it imports
17Source: IMF 2016-2017
Imports to UK (US$bn) 2017 Exports from UK (US$bn) 2017
India exports more to the UK (US$9bn) than it imports from it (US$5.2bn)
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Correlation factors of Brexit vote
18
Leaving would not entail a loss of British influence on the world stage
“”
Mathew Elliott (52%)Chief Executive of Vote Leave (2015) -helped found tax payers’ alliance
Dominic Cummings (52%)Campaign Director of Vote Leave (2015) ‘We need leaders …who can feel Kipling’s Kim’
Regional correlation Deprivation correlationBrexit voters were ”probably fat”
0.8 0.3
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Brexit sensitivity
19
Source: Gill, F. and Sakhuja, A. (2016) Standard and Poor.
Other than the UK, it is small countries like Ireland, Malta, Luxembourg, Cyprus and Switzerland that have most to lose post Brexit
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While UK wages were as low as those in Greece 2007-15 …
… GDP in the UK grew YoY during the same period
UK wages vs GDP 2007-15
20
contraction expansion
expan
sion
con
traction
WA
GES
GDP
UK in class of its own as a rise in GDP is not reflected in wages as in other advanced countries
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UK health and living standards falling
21
Neo-natal mortality rates in EU 1990-2015
• In 1968 we were top rank in the world• By 1990 we had fallen to 7th
• By 2015 we plummeted to 19th, falling consistently to 2017
English mortality rate 2001-18 (%)
Households with children private renting in England 1984-2012
England is the only place in Europe where life expectancy peaked in 2014 and fallen ever since
The rise from 1 in 20 to 1 in 4 children in rented private housing is unprecedented…
7
19
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Share of Labour vote in UK opinion polls May 2015 to May 2018
22
…but, given hope, unprecedently fast social and political change is possible
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Corbyn gives Labour biggest share increase since 1945
23
• Conservative share of vote rose by 5.5% in 2017, but the Labour share rose by 9.6%
• Swing after 2017 election as great as that in 1945 after 2 years rather than 10
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State spending in the 20 richest countries as a proportion of GDP – some perspective
24
• The conservatives want to bring state spending down to 36%; Corbyn wants to raise it to 38%. This is still very low in the context of other rich countries
(%)