brett stuart trade analyst u.s. meat export federation future potential and challenges for u.s. red...
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Brett StuartTrade AnalystU.S. Meat Export Federation
Future Potential and Challenges Future Potential and Challenges for U.S. Red Meat in the Global for U.S. Red Meat in the Global
Marketplace Marketplace
UNL – ANSI DepartmentUNL – ANSI DepartmentMay 4, 2005May 4, 2005
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USMEF Mission Statement
“To increase the value and profitability of the U.S. beef, pork and lamb industries by enhancing demand for their products in targeted export markets through a dynamic partnership of all stakeholders.”
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USMEF Offices & Representatives
Taipei
Singapore
Guangzhou
Denver
Mexico City
Sao Paulo
MoscowLondon
Beirut OsakaTokyoSeoul
Monterrey
St. Petersburg
Caracas Hong Kong
Shanghai
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USMEF StakeholdersPrivate Companies
– Tyson– Swift & Company– Excel– National Beef– Hormel– Smithfield
Agribusiness– Chicago Mercantile
Exchange– Elanco Animal Health
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture
Nat’l & State Organizations– National Pork Board– Cattlemen’s Beef Board– United Soybean Board– American Farm Bureau
Federation– National Cattlemen’s Beef
Association– NE Beef Council– NE Corn Board– NE Dept of Ag– NE Soybean Board– American Meat Institute– National Pork Producers
Council
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Strategic Priorities
• Market Access• Trade Support• Market Presence• Buyer Education and Loyalty• Product Image• Total Carcass Utilization
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Relevance of Trade to U.S. Livestock Industries
• In 2003, we exported 12% of domestic beef production
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Per
cen
t o
f P
rod
U.S. Beef/BVM Exports as a Percent of Production
Source: USDA, USMEF
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Relevance of Trade to U.S. Livestock Industries
• In 2003, we exported 12% of domestic beef production– Impact on cattle prices (chart)
• In 2004, we exported 11% of domestic pork production
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
met
ric
ton
s
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
mil
lio
n $
PVM - MTPork - MTValue - million $
U.S. Pork and Pork Variety Meat Exports
Source: USDA
14.3% Average Annual Growth - Volume14.3% Average Annual Growth - Volume
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Relevance of Trade to U.S. Livestock Industries
• In 2003, we exported 12% of domestic beef production– Impact on cattle prices (chart)
• In 2004, we exported 11% of domestic pork production
• In 2003, we exported 320 million bu. of corn and 38 million bu. of soybeans through red meat
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Relevance of Trade to U.S. Livestock Industries
• In 2003, we exported 12% of domestic beef production– Impact on cattle prices (chart)
• In 2004, we exported 11% of domestic pork production
• In 2003, we exported 320 million bu. of corn and 38 million bu. of soybeans through red meat
• Even indirect trade issues impact U.S. producers – (chart)
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June LC Contract - 2002
On March 10, 2002 Russia banned U.S. poultry keeping 53 million pounds per week in the U.S.
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange web site
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Topics
• Promotional Efforts
• Global Demand and Competition
• Current Issues - BSE
• Challenges
• Outlook
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Promotional Efforts
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Promotions
• Media
• Retail
• Foodservice
• Trade
• Foodshows
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Global Demand and Competition
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Income and PCC of Meat-- Log Scale --
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1 10 100 1,000
Per Capita Consumption of Meat (kg/capita/year)
Per
Cap
ita
Inco
me
(US
$ P
PP
)
Estimate: 1% Increase in PCI Increases PCC 0.6%
Source: FAO
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Red Meat Demand Drivers
World Population in billions
0
2
4
6
8
10
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
World Per Capita Income Growth Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1970
=10
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, World Bank, USDA/ERS
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FAO Meat Consumption Forecasts
Source: FAO
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
mil
lio
n m
etr
ic t
on
s
1997/1999 2015 2030
Poultry
Pork
Ovine
Bovine
+34%
+108%
+30%
+57%
+22% +44%
+22%+64%
% change from base year
+29%
+67%
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China Factor
• World food demand will increase 50% over the next 20 years, paced by the growing population and greater affluence of China
1988 to 2002• In China
– calories from animal sources +120% – calories from vegetable sources - unchanged
• In the Developing World– calories from animal sources +48% – calories from vegetable sources +4%.
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Global Beef Market Share
Brazil
Australia
India
New Zealand
Argentina
CanadaUruguayEU-25
U.S.
Others
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 f 2005 f
Source: USDA Estimates
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Global Beef Exporters by Country
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
1,0
00
MT
CW
E
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 (f)
Source: USDA
Competition is Fierce
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Global Pork Market Share
Canada
EU-25
United States
Brazil
ChinaOthers
0%10%20%
30%40%50%60%70%
80%90%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 f
Source: World Trade Atlas
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
China
U.S.
Brazil
Canada
Hog Production
Source: FAO
Million
head
94% of China’s hogs are on operations with <9 head
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Global Pork Exports- Key Exporters -
0
200400
600
8001,000
1,200
1,400
1,6001,800
2,000EU-2
5
Canad
a
U.S.
Brazil
China
1,0
00
MT
CW
E
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 f
Source: USDA
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Recent Developments
• Argentina receiving FMD clearance by region – Beef access agreement with China
• Brazil wants to double meat production in 10 years
• Uruguay is 100% USDA Process-Verified
• Canada (Maple Leaf) will be using DNA traceability for Japan in 2005
• What is the U.S. doing?
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Brazil Factor
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Current Issues - BSE
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Key U.S. Beef Markets - BSE
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2003 2004
met
ric
ton
s
Other
C/S America
Caribbean
EU
Taiwan
ASEAN
Middle East
HK/China
Russia
Canada
S. Korea
Mexico
Japan
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LOST EXPORT PREMIUMS DUE TO WORLDWIDE BSE BANSTop 10 Exported Items
Pre-BSE Price 12/03
Post-BSE Price 12/04 Loss/lb Lbs / Hd Loss/Hd
Annual Lost Premiums*
Short plates 1.80$ 0.71$ (1.09)$ 40.0 (43.60)$ (1,229,520,000)$ Liver 0.35 0.10 (0.25) 11.0 (2.75) (77,550,000) Short ribs 2.37 0.71 (1.66) 5.0 (8.30) (234,060,000) Intestine 0.55 - (0.55) 7.5 (4.13) (116,325,000) Chuck roll 1.66 1.52 (0.14) 38.0 (5.32) (150,024,000) Tongues 4.25 0.70 (3.55) 3.5 (12.43) (350,385,000) Skirt 3.11 1.81 (1.30) 7.0 (9.10) (256,620,000) Rib Fingers 2.45 0.51 (1.94) 4.0 (7.76) (218,832,000) Tripe 0.99 0.43 (0.56) 7.5 (4.20) (118,440,000) Hanging Tender 2.00 0.85 (1.15) 2.5 (2.88) (81,075,000)
126.0 (100.46)$ (2,832,831,000)$
or(8.04)$ per cwt
*Based on steer/heifer slaughter of 28.2 million head in 2003
Nebraska steer/heifer slaughter 2004=6.196 million head, or $619.6 million dollars lost in NE due to BSE bans, not considering other aspects of BSE losses (increased supplies, affiliated industry impact, etc)
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Current Situation
Perhaps the largest ‘non-issue’ issue in industry history
1. There is virtually zero risk of animal to human transmission
– SRM removal
2. There is no risk of animal to animal transmission
Then what is the issue?
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Key Market Bans
Japan• U.S. beef/bvm exports of
384K mt worth $1.4 billion in 2003
• Backed away from 100% testing; poor record of public health
• 64% of beef consumed is imported – half was U.S.
• Beef is 4th protein source behind Fish, Pork, Poultry
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01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,0009,000,000
mt
Beef Fish Pork Poultry
Japan Meat Consumption 1961-2001
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USMEF Efforts
• Trade Teams
• Media Teams
• Proposals
• Information
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When Will the Markets Reopen
• Japan– Agreed in principle to re-open (10/04)– Domestic rulemaking required
• S. Korea– May move independently of Japan– Requires political maneuvering
• Others
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Current BSE Status
• 65 countries initially closed – 28 have reopened– Represent 40% of 2003
volumes– Many have boneless and
age restrictions
• Beef exports to Mexico have reached 81% of pre-BSE levels
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Challenges
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Threats to U.S. Success
• Production built to domestic market– Our competitors have a very different
perspective• Traceability
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Threats to U.S. Success• Production built to domestic market
– Our competitors have a very different perspective• Traceability
• Funding sources– Checkoff uncertainty– Budget deficits will decrease future federal
agriculture funding
• Protectionist attitudes– At home and abroad
• FTA’s– China / S. America?– Asian Free Trade Area?
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Threats to U.S. Success (cont.)
• Inability to control food safety and animal health issues– FMD, BSE, etc
• Inability to develop standardized trading principles– Sovereignty rights vs. worldwide
obligations– Non-tariff trade barriers: dumping cases,
SPS issues, etc.
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As Tariffs Fall…Other Measures Rise
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99
Ave
rag
e T
arif
f ra
te
050100150200250300350400450500
Nu
mb
er o
f A
D M
easu
res
in
Pla
ce
Avg. Tariffs
Measures in Force
Source: Cato Institute
Average Tariffs and Antidumping Measures(nontraditional users, 1987-1999)
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Outlook
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U.S. has a 35% advantage over Australia/N.Z.
compared to Jan. ‘03
Source: 2005 by Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada
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U.S. Pork Export Forecasts
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
'000
MT
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
USDA and USMEF
USMEF forecasts
$2.2 billion in 2004
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USMEF Beef Export Forecasts
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
'000
MT
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
USDA and USMEF
USMEF forecasts
$3.9 Billion in 2003
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2005 Outlook• Continued weak U.S. dollar• Global economic growth• Bigger importers and exporters are emerging
(specialization)• Animal disease issues driving
production/consumption trends• China consumption and Brazil production• Trade Policy
– Will the Doha Round reach a conclusion?– CAFTA– Will TPA be renewed (expires in June - could be
extended 2 years)
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For more information:Brett Stuart
(303)623-6328
Or visit USMEF at www.usmef.org
Questions ?