breaking bad equilibruim - john willis
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
“Breaking Bad” Equilibrium John Willis Twitter: botchagalupe GitHub: botchagalupe
![Page 2: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• One of the founding members of “Devopsdays” • Co-author of the “Devops Handbook”. • Author of the “Introduction to Devops” on Linux Foundation edX. • Podcaster at devopscafe.org • Devops Enterprise Summit - Cofounder • Nine person in at Chef (VP of Customer Enablement) • Formally Director of Devops at Dell • Found of Socketplane (Acquired by Docker) • 10 Startups over 25 years
About Mehttps://github.com/botchagalupe/my-presentations
![Page 3: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• Economics• Wealth• Markets• Thermodynamics
Equilibrium
![Page 4: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• Techical Debt• Cooperation• Risk • Work Life Balance• Burnout
Equilibrium
![Page 5: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
It’s a strategy that all the players in the game can adopt and converge on, but it won’t produce a desirable outcome
for anyone.
Bad Equilibrium
![Page 6: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
False Equilibrium
![Page 7: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
False Analytics
http://www.slideshare.net/swardley/an-introduction-to-wardley-maps
![Page 8: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
False Analytics
http://www.slideshare.net/swardley/an-introduction-to-wardley-maps
![Page 9: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Movie Fun
![Page 10: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
More Fun - Game Theory
![Page 13: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Is a state of allocation of resources in which it is impossible to make any one individual better off without making at
least one individual worse off.
Pareto Efficiency
![Page 14: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
A situation is inefficient if someone can be made better off even after
compensating those made worse off.
Pareto Inefficiency
![Page 15: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
A concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one
where no player has an incentive to deviate from his chosen strategy after
considering an opponent's choice.
Nash Equilibrium
![Page 18: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
![Page 22: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
![Page 23: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
![Page 24: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
0%
![Page 25: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
0%
0%
![Page 26: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
0%
0%
![Page 27: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
0%
0%
0%
![Page 28: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0%
0%
![Page 29: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0% 0%
0%
![Page 30: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0% 0%
0%
![Page 31: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0% 0%
0%
![Page 32: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0% 0%
0%
![Page 33: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0% 0%
0%
![Page 34: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0% 0%
0%
![Page 35: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0% 0%
0%
Nash Equilibrium
![Page 36: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
![Page 38: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
![Page 39: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 40: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
![Page 41: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
![Page 42: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
![Page 43: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
![Page 44: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
0%
![Page 45: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
0%
0%
![Page 46: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
0%
0%
![Page 47: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
0%
0%
0%
![Page 48: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0%
0%
![Page 49: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0% 0%
0%
![Page 50: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Nick
Ibrahim
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%
0%
0%
0%
![Page 51: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Why Michael Lewis?
![Page 52: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
![Page 53: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Forty years ago, Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original studies undoing our assumptions about the decision-making process. Their papers showed the ways in which the human mind erred, systematically,
when forced to make judgments in uncertain situations. Their work created the field of behavioral economics, revolutionized Big Data studies, advanced evidence-
based medicine, led to a new approach to government regulation, and made much of Michael Lewis’s own
work possible. Kahneman and Tversky are more responsible than anybody for the powerful trend to mistrust human intuition and defer to algorithms.
![Page 54: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
• Human Irrationality • Heuristics • System 1 (fast) • System 2 (slow) • Availability Bias • Regression to the Mean • Overconfidence • Illusion of Validity
![Page 55: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
![Page 56: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
That’s how it’s always been done
around here!
![Page 57: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
• Undesirable Outcomes• Pareto Inefficient • Nash Equilibrium• False Analytics
• Human Irrationality• Cognitive Bias• Overconfidence
Devops Bad Equilibrium
Good Opportunities…- Discontinuity- Dislocation
![Page 58: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Breaking Bad Equilibrium
![Page 59: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
• Make work visible • Manage WIP• Manage Flow• Create high trust• Embrace failure
Devops Advanced
Good Better
![Page 60: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Really Hard Stuff
Better Excellent
• Psychological Safety• Blamelessness • Rethink SLA’s• Increase Headcount• Increase Buffers
![Page 61: Breaking Bad Equilibruim - John Willis](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052418/58ac15fd1a28ab33178b6681/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
You are either building a learning organization…
or you will be losing to someone who is…
Andrew Clay Shafer