bread trends

Bread Trends By:By:

SDD Marketing SolutionSDD Marketing SolutionLotfi Seddaoui Lotfi Seddaoui

AgendaAgenda • Demographic & Economic Costumer Analysis Demographic & Economic Costumer Analysis

• Bread Market Analysis Bread Market Analysis

• Bread Trends Bread Trends

• ConclusionConclusion

Demographic & Demographic & Economic Costumer Analysis Economic Costumer Analysis

Consumer Demographics

• Baby-boom ,most influential demographic force, 29%.• Young people (generation Y, Z) very influential consumers (8 to 14 years of age)

spent $1.7 billion they also increasingly influence family purchases.

Demographic & Economic Costumer Analysis Demographic & Economic Costumer Analysis

Canada’s Changing Households


1981

2001

Canada’s Changing Households


• Canadian households are becoming smaller fewer children

• Households without children are the majority 52 % of Canadian households

• Time-stressed parents• Instability of conjugal unions , a trend towards lone-parent families

• Lone-parent families increasing a majority headed by women (81% in 2001)

• Growing number of two-earner families with children• Two-earner households also face time constraints: Time – Money : More money ,

less time increase consumer demand for time-saving (but more expensive)

products and services

Changing Ethnic Composition of Canadian Consumers


• Immigrants and visible minorities are ever more present in the Canadian

mosaic 19% of the population

• Immigrants arriving in Canada are :

- 78% were members of visible minorities

- Younger

• 60 % non-European immigrants, “poor understanding “ of their rights as a

consumer , twice of the national average• Increasing proportion of recent immigrants from Asia

(Philippines, China and India)

Education


• 57 % seniors did not have a high-school diploma

• 14 % of 25 to 34 years of age in 2001 had not completed high school

• Making independent consumer decisions about essentials

• Deal with complex information

• New Technologies savvy

• Health & environment concerned

• More open to try a new experience


Consumers and Changing Retail Markets

• Large retailers, foreign and Canadian, are now more common

• Greater concentration in the retail market

Table 4: Market Concentration in Canada by Retail Sub-Sector

Retail Sub-Sectors

2011 Sales (millions)

Market Concentration Ratios (percent)

Electronics &

Appliances$14,982 55.2%

Grocery/Food $104,134 61.9%

Pharmacy and Personal Care

$32,848 68.6%

Clothing and Accessory

$26,049 18.9%

• The Growing Presence and Changing Forms of Advertising


Consumers and Changing Retail Markets

Advertising

• Reach $2.8 billion • Most growth,15%• Market share 31%• Social Media spurred The growth, 64% Video up 35%• Advertising success on mobile on ,

capturing 33% of all ad spend on the platform in 2014

• Grow by 2.5% in 2014

• Grow by 2%, growth of the digital OOH

• Grow by 1.6%, conventional 60% of TV ad revenue, 40% specialty cable

• Ad revenue Drop, 5% Newspaper , 2.5% Sales magazine

Bread Market Analysis

Bread Market Analysis Bread Market Analysis

Headlines• In 2014, current value sales grow by 3% to reach $6.7 billion• Baked goods is expected to post a value CAGR of 1% at constant

2014 prices $7.2 billion in 2019

• The average unit price will increase by 2%, and be the main reason for value growth

• Product development , Whole grain, Gluten-free, Specialty and Flat Breads remains on the agenda , demand for healthy and more ethnically diverse food

• Bread and bread products accounted for 24% of bakery category tracked launches in North America in 2013

• George Weston Ltd continues to lead with a 14% value share in baked goods in 2014

Bread Market Analysis Bread Market Analysis Sales of Baked Goods, Value (Millions $) & Volume (000 Tonnes)

Volume (000 Tonnes)

• All baked goods grow on volume

• Bread represent the big part of the sales volume and growth market

0.59 1.26 6.48

0.53 0.3 1.52

0.01 0.43 2.16

2013/14 2009-14 CAGR 2009/14 Total

2013/14 2009-14 CAGR 2009/14 Total

2013/14 2009-14 CAGR 2009/14 Total

2014


Sales of Baked Goods, Value (Millions $) & Volume (000 Tonnes)

Value (Millions $)

• All baked goods grow on value

• Bread represent the big part of the sales value, 4000 Millions , highest Growth

2013/14 2009-14 CAGR 2009/14 Total

2.89 3.7 19.94

2013/14 2009-14 CAGR 2009/14 Total

2.89 2.5 13.14

2013/14 2009-14 CAGR 2009/14 Total

2.64 2.92 15.48

2014


Company & Brand Shares of Baked Goods

• The market is very concentrate, 50% is owned by 4 companies • All the big companies are losing a market share, 2 to 6 %• The artisanal baker represent 40% of the market• The artisanal baker are the only group that show a growth 4%

Bread Trends

Bread Trends Bread Trends

Bread & Bakery Launches • Europe is the leading region in terms of both bakery and bread and bread products

launches tracked in 2013.• North America ranks third.

• Bread and bread products tracked launches in North America have grown at 6.8% CAGR over the last 3 years


Bakery category launches in North America, by sub-category , 2013

• Bread and bread products held an average share of 20% of category launches in North America over the last 3 years.

• Sweet biscuits/cookies is the leading sub-category, although its share is declining.


Top 5 positionings for bread and bread products in North America, 2013

Top 5 positioning driven largely by growth in no trans fat claims

• No Trans Fats• Wholegrain• No additives• Traditional• High source of

Fiber


Tradition for authenticity for bread & bread products

Trader Giottos Panettone: Traditional Italian Oven Baked Bread.(United States, Nov 2013)

Description: Traditional Italian oven baked bread in a cardboard box.

Pbf Signature Pita Bread Factory Authentic Thin Style 100% Whole Wheat Pita Bread.(Canada, Sep 2013)

Description: Six authentic thin style ,100% whole wheat. trans fat free , no cholesterol.

Toufayan Bakeries Hearth Baked Classic White Pita Bread.(United States, Dec 2013)

Description: Six classic white pita bread in a 340g plastic bag.


A wide variety of whole grain choices

Todays Temptations California Sourdough Whole Grain Bread.(United States, Dec 2013)

Description: Sliced wholegrain Californian style sourdough bread,. All natural.

Dempsters Thins 100% Whole Wheat 100% Whole Grain Loaf.(Canada, Dec 2013)

Description: Thin bread slices 100% whole wheat grain The bread is a source of 4 essential nutrients.

Daves Killer Bread 21 Whole Grains Bread.(United States, Sep 2013)

Description: sixteen grains and 5 seeds, 100% whole grain. Certified organic.


No additives/preservatives claims solidify

North Shore Kosher Bakery Sourdough Bread.(United States, Dec 2013)

Description: Sliced sourdough bread with oats, in a 16oz plastic bag. Lactose free. No chemical preservatives. Certified kosher.

Big Y Artisan Bread.(United States, Nov 2013)

Description: Fresh baked bread for soup bowl, in a paper bag. 100% satisfaction guaranteed. All natural. No preservatives.

Kasanofs Deli Rolls.(United States, Sep 2013)

Description: all natural ,Made without high fructose corn syrup, chemical additives, artificial ingredients, irradiated ingredients, or white sugar, Kosher.


High/source of fiber claims for all product types

Silver Hills Sprouted Bakery Herbs Garlic Sprouted Bagels.(United States, Sep 2013)

Description: Five herb and garlic flavored bagels with organic sprouted whole grains, in a plastic bag. High in fiber. Sprouted organic whole grain.

Stonefire Tandoor Baked Naan: Whole Grain.(United States, Sep 2013)

Description: with whole grain. No preservatives added. No artificial preservatives.

Thomas Hearty Grains Double Fiber: Multi-Grain Bagels.(United States, Aug 2013)

Description: zero grams of trans fat, no cholesterol, low in fat and a good source of fiber and thiamin.

Low fat claims on the increase


Pc Presidents Choice A L'Europeenne Pumpernickel Rye Loaf.(Canada, Sep 2013)

Description: made with a blend of wheat, rye and barley flours, fancy molasses and caraway seeds for a deep, rich pumpernickel flavor. It's baked in the finest European tradition. Low fat. Source of fiber. No colors or artificial flavors.

Ecce Panis Bake At Home French Demi Baguette.(United States, Nov 2013)

Description: French demi baguette in a 340g plastic bag. Freshly baked bread in minutes. Natural. Low fat. Cholesterol free. 0g trans fat.

Great Value Pretzels Honey Wheat Braided Twists.(United States, Oct 2013)

Description: Braided honey wheat pretzel twists, in a 454g plastic bag. Certified kosher. Low fat. Economy.


Low carb for dieters & better health

Pepperidge Farm Carb Style Bread.(United States, Oct 2013)

Description: held in a 567g plastic bag. No trans fat. An excellent source of fiber. 100% whole wheat. Fresh from the oven taste. Net carbs 5g per slice. Low carbohydrate.

Julian Bakery New Smart Carb '1 Sandwich Bread.(United States, Oct 2013)

Description: New carb no.1 sandwich bread slices in a 24oz plastic bag. It is 70% lower in total carbohydrates, has 98% less starch, less calories, and the protein content has increased by 25%!

Product Flavors Trends


Cinnamon with declining share, was replaced by garlic as the leading flavor

Flat bread products are on trend

Kontos Multi Grain Flatbread.(United States, Aug 2013)

Description: No trans fat. No cholesterol. Flavorful, flexible, nutritious. Kosher. Certified halal.

One Republic Flatbreads Artisan-Style Flatbreads Multigrain Pita Squares.(United States, Aug 2013)

Description: Five multigrain pita squares flatbreads in a plastic bag. Wholegrain. Artisan-style. Can be heated in a microwave.

One Republic Flatbreads Artisan-Style Flatbreads Multigrain Pita Squares.(United States, Aug 2013)

Description: Five multigrain pita squares flatbreads in a plastic bag. Wholegrain. Artisan-style. Can be heated in a microwave.


Flax seeds for flavor, texture and health benefits


Ace Cranberry Raisin Flax Oval Bread.(Canada, Nov 2013)Description: Oval loaf of sweet cranberry raisin flax bread, made from stone-ground whole grain whole wheat flour and other simple ingredients.

The Essential Baking Super Seeded Multi-Grain Gluten Free Rolls.(United States, Aug 2013)Description: Super Seeded Multi-Grain Rolls are high in fiber, packed with sunflower and flax seeds for your ultimate enjoyment.

Josephs Flax Oat Bran And Whole Wheat Pita Bread.(United States, Nov 2013)Description: 227g plastic bag. No trans fats. Reduced carbs. Reduced fat. High source of protein. Excellent source of ALA omega-3. Certified kosher. Contain oat bran, flax and whole wheat pita bread.

Mainstream ancient grains


Country Harvest 100% Whole Grain Ancient Grains Bagels.(Canada, Sep 2013)Description: wholegrain ancient grains mix (flaxseed, hulled millet, spelt flakes, barley flakes, kamut flakes, amaranth, quinoa, poppy seed) 100% wholegrain, source of fiber, low in saturated fat, no trans fat.

Sprouts Farmers Market Spelt Bread.(United States, May 2013)Description: All natural sliced spelt bread in a plastic bag. Sprouts farmers’ market spelt. No artificial flavors. No artificial colors. No artificial preservatives. Whole grain.

Alexia Artisan Ancient Grain Rolls With Teff And Whole Grain.(United States, Jul 2013)Description: Artisan ancient grain rolls with teff and whole grain, in a 12 oz bag.

Potato bread is back


Arnold Country Sweet Potato Bread.(United States, Oct 2013)Description: Combining great taste and serious nutrition, Potato Bread is crafted with nature's finest ingredients and no artificial colors or flavors.

Pepperidge Farm Farmhouse Hearty Sliced Potato Bread.(United States, Dec 2013)Description: Hearty sliced potato bread in a heat sealed plastic bag. Low fat. Cholesterol free. 0g trans fat. Double wrapped for freshness. Fresh from the oven flavor. Hearty sliced bread.

Stater Bros Potato Old Fashioned Bread.(United States, Aug 2013)Description: A potato flavored sliced bread, in a plastic bag.

General trend market for food and beverage for 2015 are led by:


Trends 2015 /16

From Clean to Clear Label

Convenience

for Foodies

Marketing

to Millennials

Snacks Rise to

the Occasion

Good Fats, Good Carbs

Toast is a flavor

Gluten-free breads

In-h

ouse

ba

king

The Dark Side

Mixing

the

Old &

New

Hot and spicy trend

Generations

Convenience

Hea

lth &

wel

lnes

s

Flavors

Breads from the East

Latin-Americ

an influ

ences

Hot News • Bimbo Bakeries USA introduces new Healthfull bread line:Flax & Sunflower, Steel Cut Oats & Honey and Nuts & Seeds

• Ingredion identifies global texture, taste trends : North America: Millennial Fusion, Texture and Flavor Mash-Ups, and

Gluten-Free South America: Comfort Food and Indigenous Ingredients Europe: Provenance, Millennial Fusion, Comfort Food and Artisanal Asia: Curries, Food Safety and Ethical Sourcing, Local Food Flavors Australia: Indigenous Ingredients, Provenance


• George Weston Ltd launched the All But Gluten brand

• Sensient Flavors predicts food, beverage flavor trends for 2015 Maple Mirch (Mirchi): Hindi for chili pepper , This East-meets-West

hybrid pairs the familiar sweetness with the exotic Indian flavor. African blue basil:A perennial basil, this variety is a sterile hybrid of

two breeds that yields an unexpected flavor with anise undertones. Everything bagel spice blend: A longtime favorite, this versatile spice

blend contains poppy seed, kosher salt, sweet onion sugar, sesame

seed, garlic, onion and fennel.• Ancient Grains for modern times : Chia,

Hot News


Conclusion & Recommendation Conclusion & Recommendation

Socio economic situation changing : Education, Households, life style, impact

the consumer habits : •More fresh•More Artisanal•The ethnic trend is seeing increasing popularity as more channels provide

consumers with more options Better quality and healthier ingredients•Health-conscious and curious: Canadian consumers are also becoming more

adventurous , more travel and exposure to other cultures

• High-fiber bread, positioned as naturally healthier has continued to see

stronger demand• Gluten-free products in most packaged food categories have seen strong

growth, including baked goods• Ancient grains, modern times (Chia, Buckwheat, Quinoa, Hemp, Amaranth)• Ancient grain with Gluten free status : Indian rice, Sorghum, Millet species

including teff, • bread with olives, nuts, apricots and other ingredients will see increasing

demand



Flavors

Artisanal Bread

Convenience

Health & Wellness

Ethnic Trend

Combination can be a great way to enhance the costumer “attraction value” :


Ethnic Trend Ethnic Trend

FlavorsFlavorsFruit

VegetablesSpices

Health & Wellness Health & Wellness

ConvenienceConvenience Mini Format (sticks)

Support Nutriments

Génération Y, Z

Artisanal Artisanal Bread Bread


100% whole grain Raisin + Chia Additives free &

cholesterol free

100% whole grainAfrican blue basil

Authentic Challah Bread

Challah BreadWith Cranberries

0100% whole grainMini

Baguette Olive & Garlic

HEALTH MOUVEHEALTH MOUVE