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Page 1: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Bread Industry / Market in India 2015 - 2020

Picture Courtesy: www.info.wowlogistics.com

Page 2: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

2 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

• 43 cities in India have a population of 1mn+ • Cities in India are classified on the basis of cost of

living. • 4 Metros including Mumbai, Delhi,

Chennai, Kolkata • 9 Tier 1 (+5 million ) cities including Pune,

Ahmedabad and Bangalore • 22 Tier 2 cities (1 million to 5 million )

including Patna, Kochi, Rajkot, Madurai • 41 Tier 3 cities (less then 1 million )

including Ranchi, Mangalore, Gwalior, Roorkee

India - Snapshot

Population growth 1.4% p.a

Land Area 3.29 mn sq km

Population density 324 persons per sq km

Form of government Democracy

Number of States 29 states & 6 union territories

Capital New Delhi

Per capita income Nominal: USD1,124.4 p.a

Religion 6 main religions

Languages Hindi (national language), English (business language), 22 (official languages)

Currency Rupees

Exchange rate (USD to INR)

1 USD = INR 63.97 (as on 13th May 2015)

Rural-urban mix 68% people reside in rural areas

Households 246 mn

Literacy rate 74.04%

Source: Government websites Metro cities Tier-I cities

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

India Fact File

Andhra Pradesh

Arunachal Pradesh

Assam Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Goa

Gujarat

Haryana

Himachal Pradesh

Jammu and

Kashmir

Jharkhand

Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Manipur Meghalaya

Mizoram

Nagaland

Orissa

Punjab

Rajasthan

Sikkim

Tamil Nadu

Tripura

Uttar Pradesh

Uttaranchal

West Bengal

Mumbai Pune Hyderabad

Bangalore

Jaipur

New Delhi

Kolkata

Chennai

Ahmadabad

Lucknow

Nagpur

Patna

Surat

Telangana

West

North

South

East

Page 3: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Preface to the Report

3 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

Who is the reader?

Any participant or stakeholder in the bread and bakery industry

Analysts, industry experts or any person with an interest in tracking the progress of the bread industry

Purpose of the report

Gives the reader an overview of the bread industry in India

The report provides estimates the size and expected of bread industry till 2020. It offers intelligent and actionable insights

on the drivers and challenges faced by the industry and its key segments, i.e. by end users and by geography

It provides the profiles of the top industry players in the bread industry in India

Scope of the report

This report covers:

• Current estimated market size and future growth

• Industry structure

• Growth drivers and inhibitors

• Competitive landscape

Bakery products such as biscuits and cookies, cakes and pastries do not come under the purview of this report

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Page 4: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

Executive Summary Slide 10

1 Industry Structure Slide 11

1.1 Bread industry structure Slide 12

1.2 Evolution of bread industry in India Slide 13

1.3 Definition of bread for the report Slide 14

1.4 Bread industry classification Slide 15

1.5 Industry supply chain Slide 16

2 Industry Overview Slide 17

2.1 Market size & growth Slide 18

2.2 Industry segmentation

2.2.1 - By flavor Slide 19

2.2.2 - By category Slide 20

2.3 Consumption by category Slide 21

2.4 Urban and rural market Slide 22

2.5 Geographical analysis Slide 23

3 Drivers & Inhibitors Slide 24

3.1 Driver 1 : Changing lifestyle and preference of the consumer Slide 26

3.2 Driver 2 : Increase in disposable income Slide 27

3.3 Driver 3 : Growth in organized retail Slide 28

3.4 Driver 4 : Product and technology innovation Slide 29

3.5 Inhibitor 1: Infrastructure problems Slide 30

4 Industry Trends Slide 31

4.1 Recent trends witnessed Slide 32

4

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

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Page 5: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

5 Industry Analysis Slide 33

5.1 Porters analysis Slide 34

5.2 Industry attractiveness index Slide 35

6 Competitive Environment Slide 36

6.1 Industry segmentation – Organized and Unorganized Slide 37

6.2 Market share of players Slide 38

6.3 Brand positioning – Price & quality analysis Slide 39

6.4 Competitive benchmarking Slide 40

6.5 Competitor profiles Slide 41

6.5.1 Bonn Nutrients Slide 42

6.5.2 Britannia Industries Ltd. Slide 44

6.5.3 Harvest Gold Industries Pvt. Ltd. Slide 46

6.5.4 Kitty Industries Pvt. Ltd. Slide 48

6.5.5 Modern Foods Industries Ltd. (HUL) Slide 50

7a Annexure Slide 52

Price index of Wheat flour, Sugar and Butter in last few quarters Slide 53

7b Appendix Slide 54

7b.1 Abbreviations and Bibliography Slide 55

7b.2 Glossary Slide 56

7b.3 Research methodology Slide 57

5

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Tab

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Page 6: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved 6

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Tab

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Chart 1 Supply-chain in Indian bread industry Slide 15

Chart 2 Share of bread in bakery segment in 2014 – India Slide 17

Chart 3 Bread industry market size & growth (INR billions) Slide 17

Chart 4 Bread industry segment by category (by value) Slide 18

Chart 5 Market segmentation by flavor (by value) Slide 19

Chart 6 Consumption by category Slide 20

Chart 7 Share of urban and rural market in India Slide 21

Chart 8 Bread industry market size & growth (INR billions) Slide 21

Chart 9 Geographical segmentation of bread consumption in India (2014) Slide 22

Chart 10 Growth of young population in India (millions) Slide 25

Chart 11 Growth of urban population in India (millions) Slide 25

Chart 12 Female work participation – Overall and Urban Slide 25

Chart 13 Rise in per capita income Slide 26

Chart 14 Consumer breakdown by income level (USD millions) Slide 26

Chart 15 Increase in organized retail in India (INR crores) Slide 27

Chart 16 Organized retail market in India (INR crores) Slide 27

Chart 17 Estimation of distribution in various parts Slide 29

Chart 18 Porter’s analysis of bread industry in India Slide 33

Chart 19 Organized and unorganized segmentation of the bread market Slide 36

Chart 20 Market share of key players Slide 37

Chart 21 Price and quality perception of bread products Slide 38

Chart 22 Annual turnover of Bonn Industries Ltd Slide 42

Page 7: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved 7

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Chart 23 Key manufacturing locations of Bonn Industries Ltd. Slide 42

Chart 24 Annual turnover of Britannia Industries Ltd. Slide 44

Chart 25 Key manufacturing locations of Britannia Industries Ltd. Slide 44

Chart 26 Annual turnover of Harvest Gold Industries Pvt. Ltd. Slide 46

Chart 27 Key manufacturing locations of Harvest Gold Industries Pvt. Ltd. Slide 46

Chart 28 Annual turnover of Kitty Industries Pvt. Ltd. Slide 48

Chart 29 Key manufacturing locations of Kitty Industries Pvt. Ltd. Slide 48

Chart 30 Annual turnover of Modern Foods Industries Ltd. Slide 50

Chart 31 Key manufacturing locations of Modern Foods Industries Ltd. Slide 50

Chart 32 Price index of Wheat flour, Sugar and Butter from FY 12 to Q3 FY 15 (INR) Slide 52

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Page 8: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Copyright @ 2014 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved 8

Table 1 Bread market share and expenditure – Key states Slide 21

Table 2 Competitive benchmarking of top players in India Slide 39

Table 3 Financial indicators of Bonn Industries Ltd. Slide 42

Table 4 Financial indicators of Britannia Industries Pvt. Ltd. Slide 44

Table 5 Financial indicators of Harvest Gold Industries Pvt. Ltd. Slide 46

Table 6 Financial indicators of Kitty Industries Pvt. Ltd. Slide 48

Table 7 Financial indicators of Modern Foods Industries Ltd. (HUL) Slide 50

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TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Page 9: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Bread Industry ValueNotes India Market Intelligence Dashboard

Market share of top 5 firms = 80% Output in organized Sector = 45%

Organized Sector Concentration

Macro Data: Market size, growth, market

shares of key players, customer segments,

key industry metrics

Micro Data: Segmental market size &

growth, financials of key players

Completeness: All data points is available

Quality: Accuracy of data

Recency: Latest period data is available:

Source of Data

Data Availability

In

du

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Stru

cture

Ministry of Statistics and Programme

Implementation (MOSPI), Economic

Survey of India, Census, etc

National Council of Applied Economic

Research (NCAER), IBEF, Euro Monitor,

World Bank, Company Websites, News

Articles, Food & Beverages News, National

Sample

Copyright © 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. www.valuenotes .biz 2015

Government

Bodies

Primary

Research

Trade Interviews , etc

Completeness

Quality

Recency

Macro

Data

Micro

Data

All India Bread Manufacturer's

Association (AIBMA)

Page 10: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Market Size And Growth

Industry Segmentation and

structure

The bread industry in India grew at a CAGR of 9% over the last three years and is valued at INR 33bn (~USD 0.51bn) in FY 2015 (E)

The industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% over the next five years to approximately INR 53bn (~USD 0.82bn) in FY 2020

Organized segment of the bread industry currently stands at ~45%

Entry of the mid-sized regional players is consolidating the industry towards a more organized structure

Brown and nutritional bread are fast growing segments while white bread is the largest at 75%

Though urban market accounts for ~65% of the demand, rural market is growing faster

Key Players

Britannia (BIL), Modern Foods Industries Ltd (MFIL), Bonn, Kitty and Harvest

are the market leaders presently

Both BIL and MFIL account for a combined 45% of organized bread market in India

10 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

Exe

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The bread industry in India has been given an Industry Attractiveness Rating of “Mildly attractive” as per the ‘ValueNotes Industry Attractiveness Rating Evaluation System’

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Drivers and Challenges

Drivers:

Increasing disposable incomes, changing lifestyles and preferences, growth in organized retail and increasing consumption of packaged food are the main drivers of the industry

Challenges:

Continuous increase in prices of raw materials and poor infrastructure problems are some of the threats to the bread industry

BIL

MFIL

Bonn

Harvest

Kitty

Others

20%

20%

25%

15%

10% 10%

Page 11: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Industry Structure

Picture Courtesy: Daifuku

Page 12: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

12 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

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India is the world’s largest biscuit

consuming nation

There are various types of biscuits

such as:

• Glucose biscuits

• Cream biscuits

• Cookies

• Crackers

Bread has become an integral

part of modern living and is

available in various patterns

and flavors such as:

• Sliced Bread

• Pav and Buns

• Nutritional Bread

• Fruit Bread

Cakes and pastries is relatively new

but rapidly growing segment

Types of cakes include:

• Chocolate Cakes

• Cream Cakes

• Pastries

Bakery industry (INR 223,500mn)

Biscuits and cookies (INR 165,000mn)

Bread (INR 33,000mn)

Cakes and pastries (INR 20,000mn)

Other products (INR 5,500mn)

The other category of products in

bakery industry include khari,

toast, rusk and other small bakery

delicacies

Bread is the second largest segment in the bakery industry

Page 13: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved 13

Late 1990s

Government of India had reserved

bread industry for Small Scale

Industries (SSI) status

Wax-coated paper was the most

preferred packaging material as it

had the capacity to absorb extra oil.

But the wax packaging tended to

open up in humid conditions,

resulting in the product getting

infected

2000 – 2010

Between 2000 and 2010, the bread industry

saw a huge shift from manual production to

automated production

Early 2000 was the turning point for the

bakery products market because of an

increase in urbanization, changing food habits

and the availability of reasonably priced ready-

to-eat products

The industry started using polythene for

packaging as it offered a safe and fully sealed

product. The producers could create aesthetic

packages with transparent packaging

Current Situation (2011 onwards)

Growing concern over health and having the

ability to choose healthy foods is leading to

innovations in bread products

With the fast food culture catching on, the

demand for bread products has accelerated

Companies are entering the market with

concepts such as live bakery-cum-cafés to

cater to today's youth who are looking for a

nice ambience and access to wifi, where they

can relax and try new products. Global bakery

chains like BreadTalk and Cinnabon bakery

have started bakery cafes

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TOC

Market Overview

Annexure & Appendix

Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Bread industry has seen rapid changes over the last decade

Page 14: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved 14

This report covers: • The organized sector including private and public

manufacturers registered with All India Bread Manufacturer’s Association (AIBMA) and other federations and associations of bread

This report does not cover:

• Other bakery products like cakes, rusks, toasts and khari

• Unorganized small local bakeries manufacturing bread

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Definition of bread as per the scope of this report

A staple food made from flour or meal mixed with other dry and liquid ingredients, usually combined with a leavening agent. It is kneaded,

shaped into loaves, and baked. Based on type of bread, it can be broadly categorized into the following categories:

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

• Sliced Bread: Sliced bread is a pre-sliced loaf of bread

• Pav Bread: Pav is a local hand-sized, small dome shaped bakery product with a flat bottom • Other Breads: Other type of breads include exotic breads, flavored breads, burger buns, pizza bases etc

Page 15: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

15 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

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Bread is mainly classified on the basis of category and flavor

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

White bread Made from Atta and

Maida Easily available at

grocery stores Used in sandwiches

or consumed with milk and tea in households

Brown bread

Made of whole wheat flour

Available at most urban grocery stores

Consumed mostly by health conscious consumers

Fruit bread

Made of lightly enriched dough and dried fruit with higher sugar content

Available mostly in modern retail outlets and bakery shops

Consumed mostly for breakfast or as secondary staple diet

Nutritional bread

Made of various nutrients, multi grains like oats, rye, corn, garlic etc.

Preferred by consumers for its nutritional contents

Mostly consumed in metro cities only

Bread can be broadly categorized by its type and ingredients

Sliced bread Sliced bread is a pre-sliced

loaf of bread usually available at grocery stores

This segment is dominated by organized players

Consumed as a breakfast item in households with milk, tea or used to make sandwich etc

Pavs & Buns Pav is a hand-sized, dome

shaped bakery product with a flat bottom

Industry for this segment is highly unorganized

Commonly consumed in Northern and Western India in food items like pav bhaji, vada pav etc

Other breads This segment consists of

exotic breads, flavored breads, burger buns and pizza bases etc.

Premium product segment dominated by organized players

Mostly consumed in urban areas

Segments by Type

Segments By

Ingredient

Page 16: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

16 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

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Logistics plays an important role in bread industry because of its short shelf life

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Indirect sales

Direct sales

The chart below depicts the typical supply chain of bread industry in India. The participants and their roles are described in diagram below:

The supply chain of bread industry can be divided into:

• Direct sales: This consists of direct distribution of products by manufacturers to organized retail segments like supermarkets,

departmental stores, etc. and sometimes directly to the end consumers

• Indirect sales: This channel entails distribution of the product by manufacturer through various middlemen like wholesalers,

distributors to the front end sellers like retailers, hotels, restaurants, etc.

• As bread is a highly perishable item with a shelf life of only 2-3 days, it needs to be distributed within 40 hours of manufacturing. The

industry needs to have a strong distribution network including various middlemen and suppliers to reach every corner of the country.

Chart 1: Supply-chain in Indian bread industry

Wholesalers

Distributors

Manufacturers

Hotels

Restaurants

Individual consumer

Production Zone Distribution Zone Consumption Zone

Retailers

Super markets

B2B segment

B2C segment

Page 17: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Industry Overview

Page 18: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

X X

X X

X

X

X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X

X

X X

FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015(E) FY 2016(E) FY 2017(E) FY 2018(E) FY 2019(E) FY 2020(E)

Market Size (Optimistic) Market Size (Pessimistic) Market Size (Most Likely)

18 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

Chart 3: Bread industry market size & growth (INR bn)

The estimated growth of ‘the bread industry’ is based on various factors* including:

- xxx - xxx - xxx - xxx - xxx

Source: Trade interviews, ValueNotes Analysis

Current market

Estimated growth

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Chart 2: Share of bread in bakery segment in FY 2015(E) – India

Bread industry to grow at a CAGR of X% in the next 5 years

xxx

xxx

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

CAGR X%

CAGR X%

CAGR X%

CAGR X%

Bread X%

Biscuit X%

Cakes and Pastries

X% Others

X%

Usage of “Three point analysis” to arrive at realistic growth figures:

- Optimistic: Maximum growth that can be anticipated, provided all the factors contributing to growth show a positive impact

- Most Likely: Most likely growth which has highest probability of taking place

- Pessimistic: Least growth, if growth factors are delayed or not implemented

Page 19: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

White Bread Brown Bread

Fruit Bread

Other Nutritional

Bread

19 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

Source: Trade interviews,

ValueNotes Research

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Brown and nutritional breads are fast growing segments

TOC

Market

Overview

Annexure & Appendix

Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Chart 4: Bread industry segment by ingredients in FY 2015(E) (by value)

White bread

xxx

Fruit and other nutritional bread

xxx

X%

X%

X%

Brown bread

xxx

“There is a growing segment of people ready to pay the extra buck for a healthier bread product. Brown bread sales in the country are rising, especially in the urban areas. Also for bread makers, brown bread is a boon as they get a higher margin with it as against white bread.”

P. Krishnakumar Senior General Manager, HUL

In an interview with ‘Food navigator – Asia’

X%

Page 20: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Sliced Bread

Pav and Buns Other breads

20 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

Source: Trade interviews, ValueNotes Research

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Slice bread is the most popular segment within bread industry

TOC

Market

Overview

Annexure & Appendix

Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Chart 5: Bread industry segment by category in FY 2015(E) (by value)

Sliced bread

xxx

Pav & Bun

xxx

Other breads (Exotic, flavored, burger buns, pizza base etc)

xxx

76%

14% 10%

*Popular Indian street food

Page 21: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

B2C

B2B

xxx

21 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

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B2C sector is the biggest consumer of bread in India

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

xxx

Source: Trade interviews, ValueNotes Research

Chart 6: Consumption by category in 2015(E) (by value)

B2C segment B2B segment

“Bakery is now being termed as aspirational stepping stone towards high-end F&B facilities mainly caters to quick business meeting where people can have a quick bite while deliberations and even to close friends who wants to enjoy a moment together. Besides, now gifting branded bakery products is replacing the earlier “mithai ka dibba” trend as well.”

Pallav Singhal Executive chef, JW Marriott Chandigarh

in an interview with ‘FnBnews.com’

70%

30%

Page 22: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

X%

X%

22 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

Chart 8: Share of sales in Tier 1 & Tier 2 cities in urban market in FY 2015(E) (by value)

Source: Trade interviews, ValueNotes Analysis

Urban market

Rural market

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Chart 7: Share of sales in urban and rural market in FY 2015(E) (by value)

Rural market is expected to grow faster than the urban market

xxx

xxx

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Tier 1

Tier 2

* Urban market constitutes of 8 Tier 1 & 26 tier 2 cities, While rural market includes Tier 3 cities ( <1 ml population) and remaining market

States

Monthly per capita expenditure (INR)

Urban

Monthly per capita expenditure (INR)

Rural

Share of states in Urban market (%)

Share of states in Rural market (%)

Uttar Pradesh X X X% X%

Maharashtra X X X% X%

Delhi X X X% X%

J & K X X X% X%

West Bengal X X X% X%

Andhra Pradesh X X X% X%

Punjab X X X% X%

Kerala X X X% X%

Rajasthan X X X% X%

Karnataka X X X% X%

Source: NSS report 2010, ValueNotes Analysis

Table 1: Bread market share and expenditure – Key states Source: Reevolv advisory estimates, Trade interviews, ValueNotes Analysis

X% X% X%

X% X% X%

2005 2010 2015(E)

Rural

Urban

Page 23: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

23 Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved

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X%

East (X%) Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

South (X%) Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

West (X%) Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Source: All India Bread Manufacturer’s Association (AIBMA), Assocham, ValueNotes Research

X%

X%

X%

North (X%) Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Northern and Western India are the biggest consumers of bread in the country

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry Attractiveness

Chart 9: Geographical segmentation of bread consumption in India (FY 2015 (E))

Page 24: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Annexure

Page 25: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved 25

An

nex

ure

Till mid-2014, prices of wheat, vegetable oil, ghee and sugar were increasing on an average by ~20-22% each year. Increasing input cost had

resulted in increasing operating costs for manufacturers. This had left the biscuit manufacturers with very thin margins

However, the scenario seems to be changing in the last couple of quarters. The key input prices - wheat and sugar were flat, while palm oil

declined y-o-y during the quarter. This has resulted in to increased profitability for the bread manufacturers

Chart 32: Price index of Wheat Flour, Sugar, and Butter from FY 12 to Q3 FY 15 (INR) Base Year: FY 11-12=100

Source: Britannia Industries Ltd. - Annual report FY 14

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Industry Attractiveness

Raw material prices contribute to more than 50% of retail price of bread

100

121

133 128

135 135

116 114 111

104 93

108 118

116

110

FY 11-12 FY 12-13 FY 13-14 Q1 14-15 Q2 14-15 Q3 14-15

Flour Sugar Butter

Page 26: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

Appendix

Page 27: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

27

Ap

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Ab

bre

viat

ion

s &

Bib

liogr

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y

Abbreviations

USD US Dollar

INR Indian Rupee

PCI Per Capita Income

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

GDP Gross Domestic Product

mn million

bn billion

cr crore

kg Kilogram

FY Fiscal Year

p.a. Per annum

km Kilometer

FMCG Fast Moving Consumer Goods

US United States

B2B Business-To-Business

B2C Business-To-Consumer

HUL Hindustan Unilever Limited

All India Bread Manufacturers Association (AIBMA)

FnB News

News Articles

Company annual reports and company websites

McKinsey Group Institute India Consumer Demand Model

Moneycontrol.com

Registrar of Companies

Bibliography

ValueNotes conducted secondary research to obtain information on bread industry in

India and referred to following sources:

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry

Attractiveness

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved

Page 28: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

28

Ap

pe

nd

ix |

Glo

ssar

y TOC

Market Overview

Annexure & Appendix

Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry

Attractiveness

B2B Business-to-business (B2B) is commerce transactions between businesses, such as between a manufacturer and a wholesaler, or between a wholesaler and a retailer

B2C Business that sells products or provides services to end-user consumers

Grammage Weight of the product in a packet

Polyethene A tough, light flexible synthetic resin made by polymerizing ethylene, chiefly used for plastic bags, food containers, and other packaging.

Urbanization Urbanization or urban population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices

Working women participation

Working women participation rate is the female proportion of the population ages 15 and older that is economically active: all females who supply labor for the production of goods and services during a specified period

Glossary

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved

Page 29: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

ValueNotes is a full-service market and business research firm. Since 2000, we have helped customers, in India and around the globe, make

better business decisions by providing actionable intelligence. Our customized research solutions, by way of projects and continuing

engagements, have helped serve specific business needs - market entry strategy, choice of location, partner selection, competitive intelligence,

investment appraisal, due diligence, and customer need analysis.

Over the years, ValueNotes has developed considerable domain knowledge in a variety of sectors and industries. More important, we understand

how to develop and deploy appropriate research methodologies best suited for diverse markets. We've developed proprietary research methods

to deal with unorganized, information-scarce markets; and analytical techniques to triangulate, validate and correlate incomplete or unrelated

information

29

Bread industry in India

Government Websites & Publications

Industry Intelligence

Industry Associations Publications

& News Releases

Press Releases &

Publications by Industry

Players

Industry Reports/

Trade Publications

ValueNotes carries out industry studies designed around optimal use of

secondary (desk) research techniques to gain maximum intelligence with

specific insights and information. The steps carried out for “Bread

Industry in India” are as follows:

Secondary research: Intensive secondary research sources

include, but are not limited to,

• Print and online business publications

• Analyst reports

• Press releases

• Trade publications

Industry intelligence and market analysis: Triangulation

method is adopted to validate data points from the supply

side, demand side, industry reports and trade publications

News releases and publications:

Industry Associations: All India Bread Manufacturer’s

Association (AIBMA)

About ValueNotes

Research Methodology Applied

TOC Market

Overview Annexure &

Appendix Industry Trends

Competitive Environment

Industry Structure

Executive Summary

Drivers & Inhibitors

Government Initiatives

Industry

Attractiveness

Ap

pe

nd

ix |

Re

sear

ch M

eth

od

olo

gy

Copyright @ 2015 ValueNotes Database Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved

Page 30: Bread industry in India to reach INR 53 billion by 2020

As an analyst at ValueNotes, Sujay has worked on various projects such as market sizing, custom research, competitive intelligence, due diligence, market entry strategy and industry reports. His main focus of studies at ValueNotes has been market sizing and customer intelligence in various industries such as consumer markets and engineering industries.

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Other Industry Reports by ValueNotes:

1. Packaged fruit juice industry in India

2. Transformers industry in India

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