brazilian dry bulk cargoes market: new possibilities …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains...

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BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES FOR GRAIN CARGO FLOW, USING THE NORTHERN LOGISTICS, INFRASTRUCTURE AND PORTS.

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Page 1: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET:

NEW POSSIBILITIES FOR GRAIN CARGO FLOW, USING THE NORTHERN LOGISTICS,

INFRASTRUCTURE AND PORTS.

Page 2: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

BRAZIL WILL BE THE WORLD’S BIGGEST

SUPPLIER FOR GRAINS IN 2020

Page 3: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

WHAT’S OUR CURRENT SCENARIO ??

Page 4: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

DRY BULK EXPORT OVERVIEW

32%

68%

2014 - BREAKDOWN

PUBLIC PORTS PRIVATE TERMINALS

YEAR PUBLIC PORTS PRIVATE TERMINALS TOTAL CARGO2012 134,310,307.000 303,928,041.000 438,238,348.000 2013 145,358,665.000 305,169,618.000 450,528,283.000 2014 149,527,887.000 314,745,848.000 464,273,735.000

PUBLIC PORTS X PRIVATE TERMINALS

COMMODITIES TOTAL CARGOIRON ORE 338,152,057.000 SOYABEANS 43,997,828.000 SUGAR 21,432,765.000 MAIZE 20,917,399.000 SOYABEAN MEAL 13,226,277.000 BAUXITE 8,039,323.000 ALUMINA 8,008,450.000 PIG IRON 2,211,539.000 WOOD 1,690,800.000 MANGANESE 1,513,315.000 KAOLIN 789,239.000 RICE 715,147.000 SALT 700,282.000 OTHER MINERALS 682,655.000 PET COKE 486,436.000 WHEAT 483,819.000 OTHERS COMMODITIES 1,226,404.000 TOTAL DRY BULK EXPORTED: 464,273,735.000

MAIN DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPORTED - 2014

TOTAL DRY BULK CARGO HANDLING YEAR TOTAL CARGO % COMPARISON2012 438.238.348,00 -2013 450.528.283,00 2,80%2014 464.273.735,00 3,05%

Page 5: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

SBS AND MAIZE PRODUCTION ALL OVER BRAZIL -2014/2015

Page 6: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

CURRENT SCENARIO AND FORECASTS FOR PLANTATION AREAS

ACTUAL 2014/15: 31,504 mi/ha

MODERATE SCENARIO 2024/25: 41,198 mi/ha

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO 2024/25: 52,718 mi/ha

ACTUAL 2014/15: 15,166 mi/ha

MODERATE SCENARIO 2024/25: 15,608 mi/ha

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO 2024/25: 21,400 mi/ha

9.7 million hectares

EQUIVALENT AREA:

PORTUGAL

SANTA CARTARINA

Page 7: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

To

MaPi

Ba

MAPITOBA

• 10.9% of all national production ofSoyabeans

• Production growth between 2013/2014 : Over 16%

MAPITOBA PLANTATION AREA

Page 8: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

OVERVIEW OF BRAZILIAN GRAINS PRODUCTION

MAIZE 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14CARGO OFFER 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111 DOMESTIC CONSUPTION 48,485 51,889 53,498 53,906 EXPORTED QUANTITY 9,312 22,314 26,174 20,914 BALANCE 5,963 5,514 8,258 14,292 SOYABEANS 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14CARGO OFFER 77,973 69,666 82,226 87,661 DOMESTIC CONSUPTION 41,970 36,754 38,524 39,936 EXPORTED QUANTITY 32,986 32,468 42,792 45,691 BALANCE 3,017 444 910 2,034 SBM 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14CARGO OFFER 31,372 29,290 29,216 32,571 DOMESTIC CONSUPTION 13,758 14,051 14,500 14,800 EXPORTED QUANTITY 14,655 14,289 13,716 14,800 BALANCE 3,259 950 1,000 2,971

FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS

OVER 34 MILLION TONS OF EXPORT INCREASE FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS

Production 26.3%Consumption 18.5%Export 51.2%

Production 33.9%Consumption 22.9%Export 42.1%

Production 26.2%Consumption 34.6%Export 17.4%

Page 9: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

WHAT’S THE PROBLEM ??

INLAND LOGISTICS

INLAND LOGISTICS

Page 10: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

INFRASTRUCTURE x PRODUCTION

RANKING INFRASTRUCTURE PRODUCTION CARGO EXPORTED1ST SOUTH SOUTH CENTER-WEST2ND CENTER-WEST CENTER-WEST MAPITOBA3RD MAPITOBA MAPITOBA SOUTH

Page 11: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

INFRASTRUCTURE x PRODUCTION

Page 12: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

AVERAGE TRANSPORTATION USAGE FOR GRAIN EXPORT

BRA ARG USA

65% 84% 20%

26% 13% 31%

9% 3% 49%

AVG DISTANCEFROM PORT (KM)

1,000 300 1,000

BRAZIL ARGENTINA UNITED STATES

Page 13: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

NECESSARY INVESTMENTS FOR THE LOGISTICS INFRASTRUCTURE IN BRAZIL

BRL 608 BILLION

BRL 193.03 BILLION

BRL 293.88 BILLION

BRL 60.07 BILLION

BRL 61.02 BILLION

Page 14: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

NEW INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, COMBINING LOGISTICS

??WHAT’S THE SOLUTION

Page 15: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

TRANSPORTATION COST FOR SBS EXPORT

BRL 248.69 P/TON

BRL 258.72 P/TON

BRL 216.63 P/TON

BRL 227.80 P/TON

BRL 167.49 P/TON

BRL 133.36 P/TON

ROUTE NOT CURRENTLY IN

USE

Page 16: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

INVESTMENTS AT MIRITITUBA REGION

• Each terminal will havefrom 10 to 11 hectares

• Investment of R$ 100 Millions up to R$ 200 Millions for constructionof each Transshipmentstation

• Investment of R$ 80 Millions up to R$ 100 Millions on 20 Bargesand tug boats

• Each terminal will havefrom 10 to 11 hectares

• Investment of R$ 100 Millions up to R$ 200 Millions for constructionof each Transshipmentstation

• Investment of R$ 80 Millions up to R$ 100 Millions on 20 Bargesand tug boats

Page 17: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

BUNGE TRANSSHIPMENT IN MIRITITUBA

Page 18: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

ACTUAL LOADING FIGURES FOR GRAINS

5 MORE BERTHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE READY IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS, ACHIEVING A DAILY LOADING CAPACITY OF MORE THAN:

PORT BERTHS STORAGE CAPACITY LOADING TON/DAY VOLUME LOADED TILL AUGUST

ITACOATIARA 1 310,000.000 17,500.000 2,322,664.000SANTAREM 1 60,000.000 26,400.000 1,736,993.000PONTA DA MONTANHA 1 140,000.000 36,000.000 521,049.692TERFRON 1 30,000.000 36,000.000 1,583,273.197ITAQUI 2 678,000.000 50,000.000 4,410,632.738ILHÉUS 1 32,000.000 6,500.000 30,000.000TMIB 1 30,000.000 12,000.000 84,000.000COTEGIPE 1 396,000.000 18,000.000 2,621,038.590TUBARÃO 1 435,000.000 32,500.000 4,381,567.431SANTOS 9 1,287,500.000 249,000.000 20,793,107.872PARANAGUÁ 4 1,272,000.000 266,000.000 12,511,172.760IMBITUBA 2 100,000.000 16,000.000 336,547.596SFS 1 450,000.000 40,000.000 4,894,644.418RIO GRANDE 4 1,673,000.000 122,000.000 10,769,399.082

TOTAL 30 6,893,500.000 927,900.000 66,996,090.376

1 MILLION MT OF SOYABEANS PER DAY

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OPERATIONAL GRAIN LOADING PORTS

Page 20: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

ARE THE NORTHERN PORTS A REAL THREAT TO THE EXISTING STRUCTURE AND PORTS IN THE SOUTH ??

NO. EVERYBODY CAN PLAY and WIN!

Page 21: BRAZILIAN DRY BULK CARGOES MARKET: NEW POSSIBILITIES …€¦ · overview of brazilian grains production maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 cargo offer 63,760 79,717 87,931 89,111

NEW PORT CONCESSIONS