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Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 Tokyo www.pwc.com July 09, 2012 Tokyo July 12, 2012 – Nagoya

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Page 1: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

BrazilianAutomotive Market Analysis

July 09, 2012 – Tokyo

www.pwc.com

July 09, 2012 – TokyoJuly 12, 2012 – Nagoya

Page 2: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 3: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 4: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Europe – International ScenarioHeterogeneous performance• In the first quarter, the risk of rupture in the eurozone declined substantially. But in recent months hasincreased uncertainty in Greece and Spain.

• Political scene in Greece brought tension to the markets. Country can leave the monetary union. Inrecent weeks the problem are the banks in Spain.recent weeks the problem are the banks in Spain.

• Medium-term actions: putting in place a reform agenda that allows to combine growth with fiscaldiscipline.

• Long-term actions, resolve differences in competitiveness between countries in the bloc.

GDP Growth – Euro Zone (%YoY)2011 – 2012 forecast

1.5

-0.9

Italy and Spain5 year bonds

4PwCSource: Eurostat and Bloomberg (Elaborated by Tendências)

-0.9

2011

2012

Page 5: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

USA – International ScenarioEconomy in slow path• Economy keeps signs of moderate recovery. Recent data shows a more complicated picture.

• Labor marked showed weakness in recent months. Unemployment rate rose to 8.2% in May.

• Federal Reserve statement that claims that they will keep interest rate low by the end of 2014. NewQE program can not be discarded.QE program can not be discarded.

3.6%

3.1%2.7%

1.9%

3.0%

1.7%

2.3%2.5%

2.8%2.4%

GDP Growth (%YoY)2004 – 2015 forecast

5PwCSource: Bloomberg (Elaborated by Tendências)

-0.3%

-2.4%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 6: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

China – International ScenarioReduced economy growth• Economy is slowing gradually since late 2011, reflecting (a) weaker external demand and (b)investments growing at a slower pace.

• There is an ongoing process of increasing the importance of domestic consumption to sustain growthabove the target of 7,5%. But process takes time.above the target of 7,5%. But process takes time.

• In the short term, inflation is slowing, which allows the Central Bank to use monetary policy tostimulate the economy. Interest rates are being reduced.

9.10%

10.30%

9.20%8.50% 8.50%

8.90%8.50%

GDP Growth(%YoY)2004 – 2015 forecast

China - CPI% YoY

6PwCSource: Bloomberg (Elaborated by Tendências)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 7: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Global ScenarioMain countries GDP growth

EUA 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-2,4% 3,0% 1,7% 2,3% 2,5% 2,8% 2,4%

Europe 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-4,1% 1,7% 1,5% -0,9% 0,1% 0,7% 1,2%

-4,7% 3,5% 3,0% 0,5% 1,2% 1,5% 1,8%

-4,9% 1,3% 0,9% 0,5% 1,0% 1,6% 1,8%-4,9% 1,3% 0,9% 0,5% 1,0% 1,6% 1,8%

World 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-0,7% 5,1% 3,4% 3,4% 3,8% 4,2% 4,3%

PwC 7Source: FMI (*projeções Tendências)

LatAm 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-0,3% 7,5% 2,7% 1,9% 4,0% 3,6% 3,6%

0,9% 9,2% 8,9% 2,8% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5%

-0,9% 6,1% 5,9% 4,2% 4,5% 4,5% 4,5%

-6,3% 5,5% 4,0% 3,0% 3,2% 3,5% 3,7%

Asia 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

9,1% 10,3% 9,2% 8,5% 8,5% 8,9% 8,5%

5,7% 10,4% 7,0% 6,0% 6,8% 7,0% 7,5%

-5,2% 3,9% 0,5% 2,0% 1,3% 1,5% 1,7%

Page 8: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 9: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Global Update – Assembly OutlookTruly a global growth industry

84%106 million

The number oflight vehicles that

will likely beproduced in 2018

5.2%

84%

Emergingmarkets’

contribution togrowth between

PwC 9Source: Autofacts 2012 Q2 Data Release

produced in 2018

The CAGR forglobal light vehicleassembly between

2011 - 2018

2011 - 2018

Page 10: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Global Update – Forecast DriversAccentuate the positive, contain the negativeAssuming the European debt crisis is contained within the region’s borders, the auto industry has goodreason to be optimistic for 2012. Monetary easing in key growth markets and recovery in Japan andThailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly in 2012.

76.8

78.2

79.579.7 79.7

2.2

1.4

1.2

0.6-0.3

76

78

80

Global: Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook2011 – 2012 (millions)

European debtcontainment

BRICs regainmomentum

Non-resolutionand/or contagion

scenario(s)

Divergent BRICgrowth trends

Global: Light Vehicle OutlookNear-term positive and negative drivers

PwC

74.6 74.6

70

72

74

2011

BR

IC

JP

NT

HA

NA

Oth

er

EU

2012

NA sequentialgrowth

Japan + Thailandrecovery

NA demand/economic flatline

Volatile ForEx +unknown supply

chain risk

Source: Autofacts 2012 Q2 Data Release10

Page 11: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Global Update – Assembly OutlookAfter 2011 emerging market production dominatesFor the first time in history, the number of vehicles produced in developing and emerging markets in2011 was greater than the number of vehicles produced in mature markets. Sustainable demand for lightvehicles in emerging markets will underpin organic growth for the foreseeable future.

30

40

50

60

70

Global: Light Vehicle Assembly by Market Type2000 – 2018 (millions)

EU

SA

NA

AP

Global: Contribution to Growth by Region2011 – 2018

China 39.4% India 12.9%

Brazil 6.9%

PwC

0

10

20

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Mature Emerging

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

MEA

EE

Source: Autofacts 2012 Q2 Data Release

Russia 4.7%

11

Page 12: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Global Update – BRIC Assembly OutlookDemographics and economics sees China dominate BRICsChina’s assembly growth will exceed the combined growth of the other BRIC countries. To competeeffectively with the Chinese juggernaut, other countries have selected different strategies such asadoption of a product centric niche and/or localisation requirements to drive investment and growth.

3.5

15.3

5.3

7.6

27.9

Brazil

India

China

BRIC: Assembly Outlook by Country2011 vs. 2018 (millions)

PwC

1.8

3.1

3.3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Russia

Brazil

2018 2011

Source: Autofacts 2012 Q2 Data Release12

Page 13: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Powertrain Outlook – GlobalTechnology trendingIncreasingly stringent global emission standards, combined with the ongoing consolidation of engineand transmission programs will result in a further shift towards alternative fuel technologies, with wideruse of modularity to cater to individual market needs.

Global: Engine Fuel Type Consumption Outlook2011 vs. 2018 (percent share)

Global: Top 5 Trending Powertrain ApplicationsMarket share gain (2018 vs. 2011)

75.46%

19.07%

3.17% 1.26% 1.04%

1.75% 0.05% 0.12%

1

2

3

Direct Injection +16.1%

DOHC

Turbocharging

+5.9%

+5.1%

2018

2011

13PwCSource: Autofacts 2012 Q2 Data Release

77.87%

20.21%1.75% 0.05% 0.12% 3

4

5

Turbocharging

CVTs

8-speed Trans.

+5.1%

+3.2%

+2.1%

2011

Gasoline Diesel Hybrid PHEV PEV

Page 14: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 15: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

LATAM– Two groupsStable economies leading the performance• Latin America has important differences between the member countries and we can divide thembetween two groups: stable and unstable macro countries.

• In stable group we have: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico.

• This group can be characterized by the adoption of various measures of economic stabilization over• This group can be characterized by the adoption of various measures of economic stabilization overthe last decade, as the adoption of inflation targeting system. They also improved political andbusiness environment.

• As a result these countries experience an drastic improvement in social and economic indicators.

GINI Index

1999-2000 2009-2010

BRA 59,8 54,7

Country CDS(2) S&P(3)

France 201 AA+

Austria 183 AA+

Peru 161 BBB

GINI Index(1)

15PwCSource: Bloomberg (Elaborated by Tendências)(1) Gini Index: used as a measure of inequality of income or wealth; (2) CDS: Credit Defaul Swap (3) S&P: Standard & Poor's

CHL 55,2 52,0

COL 58,6 55,9

MEX 51,8 48,3

PER 56,6 48,1

Brazil 156 BBB

Mexico 144 BBB

Colombia 144 BBB-

Denmark 130 AAA

Netherlands 123 AAA

Chile 117 A+

Japan 92 AA-

Page 16: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

LATAM– Two groupsInterventionism adding risk to investments• In an unstable Macro group we have: Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador.

• These countries have populist governments.

• Economic policies were driven to more state intervention in economy, trying to favor domesticproduction and to achieve social targets.production and to achieve social targets.

• The government in Argentina manipulate the CPI(1) to show lower inflation rates.

• Political instability is a key factor in these countries.

• In some cases they threat foreign investors with expropriation of their properties. In others theycreate trade barriers unilaterally.

Country CDS S&P

16PwCSource: Bloomberg (Elaborated by Tendências)(1) CPI: Inflation Index

Greece 11729 CCC

Argentina 1253 B

Portugal 1044 BB

Venezuela 852 B+

Page 17: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 18: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Latin America – Automotive OverviewBrazil, Argentina and Mexico are the main markets in theregion

Brazil

Fleet 31.1 million

Market 3.4 million

Production 3.1 million

Capacity 4.1 million

Paraguay

Fleet 190 thousand

Market 8 thousand

Production No production

Mexico

Fleet 30.4 million

Market 905 thousand

Production 2.54 million

Capacity 2.8 million

PwCSource: Autofacts 2012 Q2 Data Release

Argentina

Fleet 10.1 million

Market 845 thousand

Production 832 thousand

Capacity 940 thousand

Uruguay

Fleet 7.25 thousand

Market 51.3 thousand

Production 15.4 thousand

Capacity 74.9 thousand

Production No production

Capacity No production

Page 19: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Latin America – Market OverviewEveryone is differentThe ratios of domestic & import sales and domestic & export assembly remain disparate whencomparing the largest markets in Latin America. While Brazil has ratios that most closely mirror adeveloped nation, Argentina and Mexico’s situation is largely dependent on their large neighbours.

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Latin America: Light Vehicle Sales2011 (millions)

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Latin America: Light Vehicle Assembly2011 (millions)

19PwC

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Brazil Mexico Argentina

Exports Domestic Consumption

Source: ANFAVEA, Ward’s Automotive Reports, ADEFA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Brazil Mexico Argentina

Imported Origin Domestic Origin

Page 20: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Latin America – Market OverviewRoom to growEven with the impressive growth that Latin America has witnessed, there is substantial room for furthergrowth to achieve the type of vehicle fleet that developed countries possess. Most Latin Americancountries’ auto sectors have outpaced population growth several times over.

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

20%

30%

40%

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Global: Developed Markets vs. Latin AmericaVehicles per 1,000 vs. Gini Coefficient

Latin America: Vehicle Sales and population2006 – 2010

DevelopedMarkets

Latin AmericanMarkets

20PwC

0%

1%

2%

3%

0%

10%

CH

I

BR

A

AR

G

ME

X

UR

U

VE

N

CO

L

Vehicle Fleet % Change

Population % Change (R-Axis)

0

100

200

300

20 30 40 50 60

Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports, CIA World Factbook, INE, IBGE, United Nations, INEGI, NSI, World Bank

Markets

More equitablewealth distribution

Less equitablewealth distribution

Page 21: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Latin America – Market OutlookNew heightsLatin America is poised to see an increase in capacity of nearly four million units in the coming years,highlighted by numerous investments in Brazil. Most automakers are preparing for large expansions,however growth and market share will become increasingly contested as more OEMs enter the market.

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Latin America: Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook1990 – 2018 (millions)

21PwC

50%

55%

60%

0

1

2

3

4

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis)

Source: Autofacts 2012 Q2 Data Release

Page 22: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Latin America – Automotive OverviewLATAM represents 8.5% of the global light vehiclesmarket, totaling 6.4 million units. In 2011, importsrepresented 25% of the market, with Japan, Korea andChina been the major source.

58%

51%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2008 2011

51%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2008 2011

China been the major source.

Light Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type Imports by Country of Origin

2008 - 2011 [%] 2008 - 2011 [%]

22PwC

14% 14%

7%5%

2%

11%14%

11%

7% 6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Ja

pa

n

Ko

rea

Ch

ina

EU

US

A

Oth

er

7% 7% 6%8% 9% 8%

4%

8%5% 5%

9%11%

7%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Sm

all

Med

ium

La

rge

MP

V

SU

V

Pic

k-u

p

Co

mm

erci

al

Oth

er

Source: PwC analysis, ALADDA

Page 23: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 24: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

In Brazil, we have:

• Nearly 200 million people; demographic bonus

• Portuguese as single language despite being a“melting pot” society

In Brazil, we do not have:

• Border conflicts

• Major natural disasters

Brazil

Background

“melting pot” society

• Clean and renewable energy sources (hydro,ethanol, wind and solar)

• Will become net exporter of oil (Pre Salt Layer)

• GDP of nearly US$2.3 trillion, 32 million newconsumers over last 5 years; 5,5%unemployment rate

• Net foreign creditor: US$355 billion of reserves

• Ethnic/racial/religioustensions/terrorism or conflicts

However, we STILL have:

• Social inequality

• Education challenges

• Slow judicial decisions

• Bureaucracy

24PwC

• One of the most internet-connected countries(over 67 million people wired)

• Sophisticated financial services sector andregulatory system

• Strong and stable democratic institutions

• Bureaucracy

• High interest rates

• Complex tax environment andheavy tax burden

• Infrastructure gaps

24

Page 25: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Exports (US$ 256 Billion)

Brazilian Trade Balance 2011

Imports (US$ 226 Billion)

Destination % Origin %

Background

Destination %

Asia 28

Europe 22

USA 10

South America 13

Africa 4

Other 23

Origin %

Asia 31

Europe 21

USA 15

South America 9

Africa 6

Other 18

25PwC 25

Other 23 Other 18

Source: Secex/MDIC

Page 26: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Economy:Current government focus

• Reduce interest rate

• Expand consumption

Background

• Expand consumption

• Reduce taxation in some specific sectors

• Keep inflation under control

• Reduce regional development imbalances

• Specific focus on infrastructure, energy, technology and telecom aswell as the promotion of Brazilian MNCs

26PwC

• Focus on the expansion of the competitiveness of Brazilianconglomerates in strategic sectors

26

Page 27: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Politics:Current government focus

• Assure reelection

• Expand connections with US, Pacific and specific countries in Europe

Background

• Expand connections with US, Pacific and specific countries in Europeand Africa

• Decouple the country from South America populism

• Target special relationship with other BRICS

• Expand global activism(United Nations/Security Council , G20,IMF, World Bank, OECD)

• Anti –corruption drive

27PwC

• Anti –corruption drive

• More government efficiency

• Specific focus on education (“Science Without Borders Program”)and on the reduction of social inequality (several specific programs)

27

Page 28: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Automotive Industry Overview

20Assemblers

3,7

US$ 91,5billion

Sales

US$ 24,8 billion

Exports

34,73,7 thousand

Dealers

53

Industrial unitsin 9 states, 39

Sales US$ 34,7 billion

ImportsUS$ 121,2

billion

Revenue4,3 million

Productioncapacity/year

PwC 28Source: Anfavea

in 9 states, 39cities

US$ 61 billion

Investments1994-2011

1,5 million

Employees

capacity/year

5% total

GDP share

21% Industrial

Page 29: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Light Vehicle World ProductionBrazil is the 7th in the production rank and the 5th market insales.

15.0

8.48.0

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Production by country

2011 [million units]

14.2

12.7

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Sales by country

2011 [million units]

PwC

5.8

4.43.4 3.1

2.5 2.4 2.2

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Ch

ina

US

A

Ja

pa

n

Ger

ma

ny

So

uth

Ko

rea

Ind

ia

Bra

zil

Mex

ico

Sp

ain

Fra

nce

4.13.5 3.4

2.9 2.62.1

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Ch

ina

US

A

Ja

pa

n

Ger

ma

ny

Bra

zil

Ind

ia

Fra

nce

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

29Source: Anfavea, analysis PwC

Page 30: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

7

20Assemblers

2.72.9 2.9

3.1 3.1

Brazil – Automotive Industry

1930 General Motors

Brand Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook1990 – 2011 (units millions)

7Assemblers

0.8

1.5 1.5

2.2 2.3

2.7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

4.97

Investment - US$ million

1980 - 2011

1953

1953

1959

1976

Ford

Volkswagen

Toyota

Fiat

1997 Honda

30PwC1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

0.49 0.480.79

1.69 1.65

1.05

1.45

1.97

2.91

2.52

3.65

VEHICLES

1980 - 2011

Source: Autofacts; Industrial GDP - IBGE.(*) Estimative

1997 Honda

1999 Renault

2001 Peugeot Citroën

2002 Nissan

Page 31: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Market Overview – BrazilOligarchy dominate marketThe Brazilian auto market is controlled largely by three automakers: Fiat, VW, and GM. Combined, theytotal nearly two-thirds of the market, although they have recently been losing share at a slow pace due toincreased competition from new market entrants.

25%

45%

65%

85%

105%

150

200

250

300

350

Light Vehicle Sales by AutomakerMay 2011 vs. May 2012 (units thousands)

1.71.4

1.61.8

2.3

2.7

3.0

3.3 3.4

Light Vehicle Sales1980 – 2011 (units thousands)

31PwC

-35%

-15%

5%

25%

-

50

100

150

2011 2012* YoY % Change (R-Axis)

Source: ANFAVEA

0.90.7 0.7

1.4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Page 32: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico

Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 33: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Sports EventsSports events will mainly boost infrastructureinvestments, and the services sectorMoreover Brazil will receive important investments in the energy (oil andethanol), mining and agribusiness sectors.ethanol), mining and agribusiness sectors.

12 cities

3.5 million

Internationalvisibility

Brazil waited64 years to

4 billion people watching the World Cup

New OlimpicVillage– 2.448

apart.

4 thousandnew jobs

48 millions

The biggest sports event worldwide

World Cup Olimpic Games

PwC 33Source: PwC

3.5 millionnew jobs

US$ 2.5 billioninvestments insports arenas

64 years tohost the World

Cup

5 timeswoldchampion

National Sport: 192 MM persons passionate bysoccer

Tourism

US$ 820millions in

urbanimprovements

48 millionsvolunteers

11 thousandatletes

1st South American city to host the Oplimpicgames

Page 34: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Regional DynamicOver the last years, political and economic stabilitycreated the conditions for the socio-economic developmentof the North, Northeast and Center-west Regions of thecountrycountry

Regional GDP – average annual rates

Average 1996-2005: 2.4% Average 2006-2010: 4.4%

4.1%

4.8%

2.7%

1.9%

2.4%

4.9%

4.9%

4.6%

4.4%

3.7%

PwC 34Source: Tendências (february/2012), PwC Analysis

Regional income mass – average annual ratesAverage 2000-2005: 3.5% Average 2006-2010: 5.6%

4.9%

6.8%

4.4%

2.6%

3.9%

7.9%

9.0%

7.1%

4.3%

5.5%

Page 35: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Social MobilityThe social mobility to higher income classes will guaranteethe good perspectives on the consumption sideIn 2020, classes A and B will represent 19,9% of the families and 56% of the

income mass.income mass.

18,4%22,9%

21,7%28,5%

34,6%38,8%

6,9%11,4% 9,0% 11,4% 14,3% 16,4%

0,7% 2,0% 1,3% 1,7% 2,2% 2,5%

Class A

Class B

Proj.

Families Income mass (from work)

30,6%

28,0%

33,9%31,1% 32,5%

33,9% 35,0%

9,4%18,5% 13,8% 15,9% 19,0% 21,0%

Proj.

PwC 35Source: Tendências (february/2012), PwC Analysis

1992 1995 2004 2009 2015* 2020*

73,9%63,7% 68,0%

58,4%48,9% 42,3%

Class B

Class C

Class D e E

1992 1995 2004 2009 2015* 2020*

32,1%20,9% 26,2% 20,1% 15,9% 12,3%

30,6%

26,7%28,8%

31,4%31,2%

31,7%

Page 36: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – GDPGovernment stimuli to impact GDP on 2013• The Brazilian economy had a poor performance in terms of GDP growth last year, despite a goodperformance of the families’ consumption.

• This year performance will be worst. Investments are reducing and GDP even with a good recoveryon the second semester will growth only 1,9%.on the second semester will growth only 1,9%.

• A better picture should be reached in 2013, given all the stimuli given to the economy this year.

• Aspect to be emphasized: in our view, potential growth is around 3.5% because of structuralconstraints.

5.7%

4.0%

6.1%

5.2%

7.5%

4.0%3.6% 3.6%

GDP (%YoY)GDP Growth (%YoY)2004 – 2015 forecast

36PwCSource: IBGE (Forecast: Tendências)

3.2%

-0.3%

2.7%

1.9%

3.6% 3.6%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 37: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Labor MarketJob market performing as expected• Despite the slowing of the economy, job market still shows good performance. Occupancy level is wellabove the pre-crisis level.

• Unemployment rate fell to 6.0% in 2011 and the currently level is at 5.6% (April , seasonally adjusted).

• We expect that the unemployment rate shows a more stable trajectory from now on, given the slowing• We expect that the unemployment rate shows a more stable trajectory from now on, given the slowingof the economy and proximity to the neutral rate.

• But the narrowing between actual and natural unemployment implies real wage gains over the years.

9.9% 10.0%9.3%

7.9% 8.1%

6.7%6.0%

Unemployment rate - IBGE

4.2%

5.9% 5.8%

6.9%

3.9%

7.4%

4.8% 4.9% 4.7% 4.5%4.2%

Payrolls x Income2005 – 2015 forecast

Unemployment rate - IBGE2005 – 2015 forecast

37PwCSource: IBGE (Forecast: Tendências)

6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 5.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1.6%

-1.3

%

1.5

%

4.0

%

3.2

%

3.4

%

3.2

% 3.8

%

2.7

%

2.8

%

2.5

%

2.2

%

2.2

%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Payrolls Income

Page 38: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – InflationInflation is not the main target• The inflation reached 6.50% in 2011 (the ceiling of the target). The YoY CPI is slowing, currently at4.99% (May/12).

• Core inflation measures show still high inflation, because of pressured services prices (8.63% in 12months).months).

• The Central Bank focus is much more on growth. The restriction is that inflation stands below thetarget’s top limit (6.5%).

• Our projection for 2012 CPI is 5.1% and for 2013 is 6.0%.

5.7%

4.5%

5.9%

4.3%

5.9%

6.5%

5.1%

6.0%6.2%

5.3%

CPICPI2005 – 2015 forecast

Expectations - CPI2012 - 2014

38PwCSource: IBGE and Central Bank (Forecast: Tendências)

3.1%

4.5% 4.3%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 39: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Monetary Policy

• Due to the international crisis and slowdown of domestic activity, BCB is cutting interest rates in thelast meetings

• BCB communication have been erratic, making predictions for the next steps harder. Our scenarioincludes Selic 7.5% in December.includes Selic 7.5% in December.

• However, BCB should hike the rate once again in 2013 to avoid inflation to burst the 6.5% level

Meetings Interest Rate

Jan – 11 11,25% 0,50%

Mar – 11 11,75% 0,50%

Abr – 11 12,00% 0,25%

Jun – 11 12,25% 0,25%

Jul – 11 12,50% 0,25%

Ago – 11 12.00% -0,50%

Out – 11 11,50% -0,50%

Nov – 11 11,00% -0,50%

Jan – 12 10,50% -0,50%

Mar – 12 9,75% -0,75%

39PwCSource: Central Bank (Forecast: Tendências)

Abr – 12 9,00% -0,75%

Maio – 12 8,50% -0,50%

Jul – 12 8,00% -0,50%

Ago – 12 7,50% -0,50%

Out – 12 7,50% 0,00%

Dez – 12 7,50% 0,00%

Jan – 13 7,50% 0,00%

Mar – 13 7,50% 0,00%

Abr – 13 8,00% 0,50%

Jun – 13 8,50% 0,50%

Jul – 13 9,00% 0,50%

Ago – 13 9,50% 0,50%

Out – 13 9,50% 0,00%

Dez – 13 9,50% 0,00%

Page 40: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Fiscal Policy

• Primary surplus target for 2011 (3.1% of GDP) was achieved without difficulty. But the governmenthad to sacrifice investments to meet the target.

• For 2012, with extraordinary income of dividends (through BNDES) and cost containment we willhave another year of compliance with goal.have another year of compliance with goal.

• The spending contention on personnel is positive but should not happen in 2013 and 2014.

• The uncertainties in this field remains in a longer horizon, given the absence of structural measureswhich would result in a better fiscal management over the years.

3.8%

3.2% 3.3% 3.4%

2.7%

3.1% 3.1%

2.6%2.4%

3.6

%

3.6

%

2.8

%

3.3

%

2.8

%

2.8

%

Primary and Nominal results (%GDP)

48.2% 47.3%45.5%

38.5%42.1%

39.1%36.4% 35.5% 34.0%

Public sector net debt (%GDP)

Public sector net debt – (%GDP)2005 – 2015 forecast

Primary and nominal results– (%GDP)2005 – 2015 forecast

40PwCSource: Central Bank (Forecast: Tendências)

2.0%2.2%

2.4%

2.8

%

2.0

%

2.5

%

2.6

%

1.5

%

1.3

%

2.8

%

2.8

%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Primary surplus Nominal deficit

35.5% 34.0%31.7% 31.6%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 41: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Exchange RateReal controlled depreciation to create competitiviness• Devaluation of the BRL was higher than other currencies, given the government actions to weakenthe currency.

• But in recent weeks government tried to avoid another round of depreciation of the BRL and seemscomfortable with the level around R$ 2,00/US$.comfortable with the level around R$ 2,00/US$.

• In the medium term the reversal of monetary policy in the U.S. and worsening terms of trade shouldweaken the BRL.

Terms ofTrade 2.34

2.14

1.77

2.34

1.74 1.67

1.882.00

2.102.20 2.18

Exchange rate (end of period)

Exchange rate – (end of period)2005 – 2015 forecast

Terms of trade2007 - 2012

41PwCSource: Central Bank and Funcex (Forecast: Tendências)

1.77 1.74 1.67

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 42: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazilian Production per State

Brazil – Vehicle Assembly Geographic DistributionIn 2011, over 48% of the vehicles were produced in SP

Auto Assembly Facilities

2%

48%12%

5%

6%

2%6%

PwC42

(2)

(2)

21%

SP MG PR RS BA GO RJ

Page 43: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

The growing amount of auto credit in Brazil has helped increase the number of vehicle purchases.However, Brazil still varies greatly from developed markets financing activity with high interest ratesand dramatic swings in the availability of financing.

Market Overview – BrazilLet’s make a deal

Brazil: Light Vehicle Financing Composition2004 – 2011

10% 15% 18%

30%

38%23%

11% 5%

47%45% 45%

32%22%

33%

46%50%

9% 7% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Brazil: Net Value of Auto Financing*2004 – 2011 (billions $R) *includes leasing

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

43PwC

34% 33% 32% 34% 36% 39% 37% 38%

10% 15% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Cash Leasing Financing Consortium

Source: ANEF

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Page 44: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Market DriversVariables that impact cars and light commercials vehiclessales in Brazil

Supply of credit to families should remain relatively stable.Credit Supply

Vehicle prices should fall by 1.5% a year in real terms - appreciatedexchange rate increasing competition.

Household income should continue to grow more than the GDP(4.8%pa x 3.8% pa) - competition for manpower.

Despite the recent decrease, interest rate in expect to increase until2013 - higher basic interest rate (SELIC)- with more consistent

decreases from 2016.

Currently at very high levels (about 160 - scale of 0 to 200), with nomargin to any consistent increase.

Price

Income

Interest rate

Consumerconfidence

- 1,5%

+ 4,8%

- 1,6 p.p.

+ 9,2 p.p.

PwC 44

Source: Tendências, Analysis PwC

margin to any consistent increase.

Average terms in auto loans to settle at slightly lower levels than therecord-breaking ones achieved in late 2010.

The expected increase in interest rates start to worry, but householdindebtedness still has room to grow.

Expected decrease in the short term due to easing in the monetarypolicy.

Other variables outside the model relevant to the understanding

confidence

Vehicle loanterms

Default

Householdindebtedness

- 37 dias

+ 0,8 p.p.

+ 19,6 p.p.

Page 45: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Sales Forecast

Jan-May 2012 Brazil is light vehicles sales weredown 4.4%. However, measures adopted by thefederal government to increase thecompetitiveness and stimulate the economy

Sales forecast2011 – 2017(f) [million units]

competitiveness and stimulate the economy(Brasil Maior, SELIC decrease and Realdepreciation) could have a positive impact onthe market, beginning in the 2H12, which canincrease of 3,6% in 2012

Major drivers:

• Robust increase in household income (4.8%pa)

• Intense flow of family migrations to classes C,B, and A - the ones with enough purchasingpower to buy automobiles -, which

3.4 3.53.8

4.14.3

4.64.9

PwC 45

power to buy automobiles -, whichshould expand by 5% p.a. (after +7.3% from2004 to 2011)

• Price decrease (by 1.5% p.a.)Major constraints:

• Relatively tight monetary policy

• Interest and maturities should provide sizableextra gains

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: Anfavea, Q2 2012 Autofacts, PwC analysis

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Page 46: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Main Automotive InvestmentsMore than US 23 billions was announced in investments toincrease capacity in more than 1.5 million units until 2015

Mark Investment Location ConclusionInvestment

(US$B)(US$B)

Capacity ExpansionSão Caetano do Sul, São José dos Campos, Mogi das

Cruzes (SP), Gravataí (RS) and Joinville (SC)2012 1.70

New plant Piracicaba (SP) 2012 0.60

New plant Sorocaba (SP) 2012 0.60

New plant and Capacity Expansion Goiana (PE) and in Betim (MG) 2014 5.90

New plant - 2014 0.53

New plant Resende (RJ) 2014 1.50

New plant Jacareí (SP) 2015 0.40

Capacity ExpansionSão Bernardo do Campo, Taubaté (SP) and Camaçari

(BA)2015 2.60

PwC 46Source: Anfavea, Tendências, PwC Analysis

Capacity Expansion(BA)

2015 2.60

Capacity Expansion Porto Real (RJ) 2015 2.20

Capacity Expansion São José dos Pinhais (PR). 2015 0.88

Capacity ExpansionSão Bernardo do Campo, Taubaté, São Carlos (SP) and

São José dos Pinhais (PR)2016 5.20

Capacity Expansion Catalão (GO) - 0.59

New product Itumbiara (GO). - 0.06

Page 47: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Production ForecastBrazil will produce 4.3 millions units in 2015, with 75%utilization.

Production and Capacity forecast

3.63.9

4.3

4.6 5.0

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7 0%

80%

90%

Production and Capacity forecast2011 – 2018(f) [million units]

47PwCCAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: Anfavea, Q2 2012 Autofacts, PwC analysis

3.13.3

3.6

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

50%

60%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production Capacity Utilization (%)

Page 48: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Market x Production ForecastLocal production will attend the increase in the localmarket and a possible increase in exports as well.

Demand and Production forecast2010 – 2018(f) [million units]

3.3 3.4 3.53.8

4.14.3

4.64.9

3.2 3.13.3

3.63.9

4.34.6

5.0

48PwCCAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: Anfavea, Q2 2012 Autofacts, PwC analysis

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Demand Production

Page 49: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Argentina – Macroeconomic OverviewGovernment measures are the main issue• The recent performance of the Argentine economy is based on two characteristics: a low base ofcomparison in years of severe crisis (99-03) and the soaring prices in the international marketcommodities.

• After the debt default (2001), the country has maintained a good record of fiscal data (revenue• After the debt default (2001), the country has maintained a good record of fiscal data (revenuegrowth + cost control).

• But the Argentine model is at its limits:

• Exchange rate appreciation in real terms (high inflation)

• Reversal of public accounts (all the subsidies should be limited)

• Energy constraints

• Strong State interventionism limits private investments

9.0 8.9 9.2 8.5 8.7 9.2 8.9

Argentina: Nominal wages and CPI(% change)

GDP Growth (%YoY)2000 – 2015 forecast

49PwCSource: Indec (Forecast: Tendências)

-0.8

-4.4

-10.9

9.0 8.9 9.2 8.5 8.76.8

0.9

9.2 8.9

2.8 2.5 2.0 1.5

Page 50: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Argentina – Production and Sales forecastAfter 24 months of impressive increase the market ispresenting some signs of slowdown. In 2014 Argentinacould reach the 1 million sales market.

0.80.9

1.0 1.11.2 1.3 1.4

0.9

1.4

1.9

2.4

70%

80%

90%

0.8 0.90.9

1.01.0

1.11.1

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Production and Capacity forecast2011 – 2018(f) (millions units)

Sales forecast2011 – 2017(f) (millions units)

50PwC

(0.1)

0.4

0.9

50%

60%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production Capacity Utilization (%)

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: Anfavea, Q2 2012 Autofacts, PwC analysis

-

0.2

0.4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Page 51: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Mexico – Macroeconomic OverviewGoes along with US• Economy is closely related to the US performance due to exportation channel (over 70% of totalexports). Even though the outlook for US, compared to Europe, is better, it does limit Mexicaneconomy’s growth.

• Inflation is at 3.7% (target is 3.0% +/- 1%). The board of Central Bank agreed that the recent rise was• Inflation is at 3.7% (target is 3.0% +/- 1%). The board of Central Bank agreed that the recent rise wascaused by items outside of core inflation. Inflation expectations remain well anchored and consistentwith expectations the central bank in its latest quarterly inflation report.

• Basic interest rate is at 4.5% since July/2009.

• Presidential elections occur in July. National Action Party (PAN), which governs Mexico, choseJosefina Vázquez Mota to contest Enrique Peña Nieto (International Revolutionary Party candidate -PRI) who is ahead in the polls on voting intentions.

CPI Excluding Food andEnergy (annual % change)6.0

4.0

5.15.5

4.0

CPI excluding food and energy(Annual % change)

GDP Growth (%YoY)2000 – 2015 forecast

51PwCSource: Banco de Mexico (Forecast: Tendências)

-0.9

0.1

1.4

4.03.2 3.2

1.2

-6.3

4.03.0 3.2 3.5 3.7

Page 52: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Mexico – Production and Sales forecastMore consistent growth is highly dependent on the USAeconomy recovery

Production and Capacity forecast Sales forecast

2.5 2.5

2.72.8

3.03.3 3.4

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.11.1

1.1

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Production and Capacity forecast2011 – 2018(f) [million units]

Sales forecast2011 – 2017(f) [million units]

52PwCCAGR: Compound Annual Growth RateSource: Anfavea, Q2 2012 Autofacts, PwC analysis

-

1.0

50%

60%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production Capacity Utilization (%)

-

0.2

0.4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Page 53: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 54: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Local Production CompetitivenessGiving the exchange rate and the competitiveness of thelocal industry, Brazil is unlikely to leverage its exports inthe short termBetween 2005 and 2011, the Brazilian market grew 12% per year, while imports grew 46% per year.

% Exports over production X % Imports over domestic market

18.9%24.9%

25.7%

28.6%

24.2%

21.3%

17.7%20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0% % Imports over domestic market

% Exports over production

[%]

Between 2005 and 2011, the Brazilian market grew 12% per year, while imports grew 46% per year.In 2011 imports represented 25% of total domestic sales.

PwC 54

5.1%

7.4%

11.3%

13.3%

15.6%

18.9%17.7%

11.6%13.8%

16.1%14.9%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

* Data to March/12Source Anfavea, analysis PwC

Page 55: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Production Costs of VehicleThe production cost in Brazil is higher than China andIndia, with values approaching 60%

163

126100 103

PwC 55

average models; base 100: production in china

Production cost based on dec/11

R$/US$ = 1.88Source: Anfavea, PwC analysis

Brasil México China Índia

Page 56: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Automotive PolicyCurrent legislation – Decree 7567/2011: December/11 theDecember/12The decree change is a 30 p.p. increase across the board in Federal Excise Tax (IPI) rates onvehicles.

Engine Volume IPI before 2011 New IPI

V < liter (Flex or Gas) 7% 37%

1 liter < V < 2 liters Flex 11% 41%

1 liter < V < 2 liters Gas 13% 43%

Above 2 liters 25% 55%

vehicles.

Local manufacturers will benefit from tax reductions that negate the IPI increase.Requirements include :

PwC 56Source: Brazilian Government, PwC analysis

•65% local content;

•Commitment to local R&D;

• Onshoring of 6 out of 11 production processes outlined in the decree.

For the purposes of calculating the level of local content, the decree expressly mentions thatparts imported from Mercosur should be considered locally produced goods.

Page 57: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Automotive PolicyNew legislation - Decree 7716 /2012: 2013-2017

•Includes new conditions of license and incetives;

•Measures are intended to attract investments in new product and new capacity, and to•Measures are intended to attract investments in new product and new capacity, and tostimulate R&D innovation within Brazil’s borders .

Objectives:

•Increase the regional content measured by the volume of parts purchased from regionalstrategic suppliers;

•Increase R&D investment;

•Increase the volume spent on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Technology ;

PwC 57

•Increase the volume spent on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Technology ;

•Development a local supplier;

•Intend to increase the energy efficiency of vehicles - vehicle labeling and reduction of CO2.emissions.

Source: Brazilian Government, PwC analysis

Page 58: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Automotive PolicyNew legislation - Decree 7716 /2012: 2013-2017INOVAR AUTO Qualifications & Incentives

RequirementsQualification IPI Incentive IPI Incentive

RequirementsQualification

(3 out of 4)IPI Incentive

(+ 30 p.p.)IPI Incentive

(+2 p.p.)

R & D (Innovation) a a

Engineering, Industrial / Supplierdevelopment a a

Manufacturing Steps a

PwC 58

Tagging a

Strategic Suppliers Purchase a

Source: Brazilian Government, PwC analysis

Page 59: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Automotive PolicyNew legislation - Decree 7716 /2012: 2013-2017

Transition rule for new investments:

•The investment project will be evaluated for new capacity and new models;

•During the construction phase: IPI collected on imported cars will generate tax credits (to beused after SOP);

•IPI Tax Credits: limited to 50% of the plant capacity;

•The requirements will increase gradually until 2017.

•The project need to be done according to the Legislation and Ministry of Development and

PwC 59

•The project need to be done according to the Legislation and Ministry of Development andIndustry needs to approve it.

Source: Brazilian Government, PwC analysis

Page 60: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Automotive PolicyNew legislation - Decree 7716 /2012: 2013-2017INOVAR AUTO Company Contribution

Criteria 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Criteria 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

R & D(Innovation)

At least 0.15% ofgross operating

revenues

At least 0.3% ofgross operating

revenues

At least 0.3% ofgross operating

revenues

0.5% of grossoperatingrevenues

0.5% of grossoperatingrevenues

Engineering,Basic industrialand Supplierdevelopment

At least 0.5% ofgross operating

revenues

At least 0.75% ofgross operating

revenues

1% of grossoperatingrevenues

1% of grossoperatingrevenues

1% of grossoperatingrevenues

8 of 12 steps -9 of12 – light 9 of12 – light 10 of12 – light

10 of 12 steps -

PwC 60

ManufacturingSteps

light10 of 14 steps -

heavy

9 of12 – light10 of 14 steps -

heavy

9 of12 – light12 of 14 steps –

heavy

10 of12 – light12 of 14 steps –

heavy

light12 of 14 steps –

heavy

TaggingAt least 25% of

vehiclesproduced

At least 40% ofvehicles

produced

At least 60% ofvehicles

produced

At least 80% ofvehicles

produced

100% of vehiclesproduced

Source: Brazilian Government, PwC analysis

Page 61: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Automotive PolicyNew legislation - Decree 7716 /2012: 2013-2017

Strategic Suppliers Purchase (Starting 2013):

•In 2012 there will be no change in the IPI (based on the new legislation);

•The incentive for the reduction will depend on the innovation and local production effortsfrom 2013;

•The reduction of 30 percentage points will be calculated based on the local purchases withinthe country. The higher the local purchase, the greater the benefits, up to 30 pp;

•Further reduction of up to 2pp in the IPI: companies that meet higher R&D investmentsand Supplier development goals.

PwC 61

and Supplier development goals.

Source: Brazilian Government, análise PwC

Page 62: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 63: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Auto Parts Overview 2011

494 91,5

US$ 11,1 billion

Exports

15,8494

Associatedcompanies

749

US$ 91,5billion

Sales

US$ 15,8 billion

Imports

229,5

PwC 63Source: Sindipeças

Industrial unitsin 12 states, 43

systemists

US$ 2,4 billion

Investments

229,5thousand

Employees

Page 64: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazilian Autoparts Industry

Brazil –Auto Parts Geographic DistributionSP is also the major auto parts producer and exporter toother states

Autoparts companiesBrazilian Autoparts Industry

Ceará

1

6

Pernanbuco

Bahia

22

10

Amazonas

Goias

1Minas

Espirito

Autoparts companies

11%

6%

5%

3%3%

2%1%

1%

PwC 64

MinasGerais

831

EspiritoSanto

14

Rio deJaneiro

509

SãoPaulo

35

Parana

24

SantaCatarina

43

Rio GrandeDo Sul

68%

SP MG RS PR SC BA RJ AM Other

Page 65: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

86.491.5

96.6 99.5

Brazil –Auto PartsMain indicators

Revenue from the auto parts industry in BrazilR$ and US$ (billion)

14.1 4.4

Revenue by destination% - dec/2011

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f

61.5 62.168.3

75.2 75.7

25.2 28.635.1

41.0 37.9

49.854.7 55.2 56.9

R$ US$

70.710.8

14.1 4.4

Automakers Replacement Export Intrasectoral

Investments of Auto partsUnit million x US$ billion

Exports Imports

% Exports over production X % Imports over domestic marketUS$ billion

65PwCSource: Sindipeças

2.2 2.32.7

2.9 2.93.1 3.1 3.3

3.6

1.4 1.3 1.42.1

0.6

2.2 2.4 2.6 2.5

(5.00)

(4.00)

(3.00)

(2.00)

(1.00)

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f

Production of vehicles Investments of auto parts (US$)

7.58.8 9.1

10.1

6.69.6

11.1

6.7 6.89.2

12.6

9.1

13.1

15.8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exports Imports

Page 66: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil Auto Parts Market – Main IndicatorsThe good perspectives for automotive industry will guarantee theincrease in Auto parts volumes. However, margins will be pressure toa lower level, making competitiveness and productivity major factorsfor the companies results

Indicators2.009 2.010 2.011 2012 (p) 2013 (p) 2014 (p) CAGR

Vehicle Production (in thousands) 2.911 3.148 3.149 3.301 3.613 3.940 6%

Average Production Index - Auto Parts(2002=100) 120 151 154 160 169 180

8%

Revenues– Auto parts (R$ millions) 75.688 86.387 91.506 97.454 104.860 113.459 8%

R$/vehicles 25,001 26,442 28,059 28,523 28,023 27,797

PwC 66(p)= Sindipeças ProjectionsSource: IBGE, Sindipeças (Auto parts association), Anfavea, Autofacts.

0,9%

Page 67: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Auto Parts Market OverviewMain Producers per 2010 Sales Revenues

Sales in 2010

[USD million]

1,246

1,284

1,310

1,433

1,510

1,695

2,003

3,099

Zf do Brasil

Delphi Automotive

Iochpe-Maxion

Cummins Brasil

Eaton

Goodyear

Pirelli Pneus

Robert Bosch

[USD million]

PwC 67

694

816

932

1,080

1,095

1,168

1,190

Magneti Marelli

Suspensys

Mwm International

Valeo

Trw Automotive Ltda

Magneti Marelli

Mahle Metal Leve

Source: Exame Maiores e Melhores 2010

Page 68: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Auto parts – Main conclusion

• The outlook is positive for the Brazilian automotive market , stimulating theannouncement of a series of new investments in capacity and products.

• The market and production scenario will also represent an increase in the autopartindustry – assemblers supply and aftermarket.industry – assemblers supply and aftermarket.

• The current Automotive Policy (2011) requires 65% of regional content (Mercosur) in orderto not increase the Federal VAT (IPI) in 30pp. This a great opportunity for local producers.

• Moreover, the New Policy (INOVAR AUTO) could lead the Brazilian industry to aninnovation cycle and leverage exports in the short term.

• According to the new regulation the larger the purchase within the country, the greater thebenefit (IPI – tax credit) the company will receive.

PwC 68

benefit (IPI – tax credit) the company will receive.

• The ultimate effect will be the development of a strong supplier park in the country.

• This will be an opportunity for the local suppliers to stand as leaders of this movement.

• And could also stimulate the entry of new players in the supplier segment.

Page 69: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 70: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Vehicle power – Status of developmentBrazil has prioritized biofuels in its energetic matrixThe new automotive policy will also demand an increase on the energy efficiency of the vehicles sold nBrazil. This movement will be focused on Brazil’s currently energetic matrix: ethanol, biodiesel andnatural gas.

Vehicle power - status of development

70PwCSource: Anfavea

Fuels Vehicles

Brazil

Petroleum Internal Combustion Engine

Biofuels Based on biofuels

World

Hydrogen Eletric Engine

Synthetical Hybrid Engine

Page 71: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Brazil – Sustainability trends

Electric Cars - Potential for 1 million units by2025 in Brazil

Rio plans a public rent system for electric cars

Giving the high tourist potential, the city of Rio de Janeiropresented a public call for the creation of rental stationsAccording to the sector executives, by 2025, around 20%

of the Brazilian fleet (almost 1 million units) will be hybridand electric vehicles.

The first step is the popularization of vehicles equippedwith Start-Stop system that turn off the vehicle whenstopped in traffic or semaphores, reducing fuelconsumption and emission of pollutants.

Taxi Fleet

In 2012, was launched the first 100% electric taxi in the

presented a public call for the creation of rental stationsfor electric cars. The proposed of green mobility is basedon the model adopted in Paris.

Olympic Games in Rio

In the Olympics 2016, athletes, delegations and authoritieswill use 4.500 vehicles with clean energy. The cars will bepowered by ethanol or electricity. After the games, the carswill be donated to assist in public transportation.

PwC

In 2012, was launched the first 100% electric taxi in thecountry, totaling 120 vehicles by the end of the year.

The pilot project is an initiative of the city of São Paulo andEletropaulo

CPFL Energia presents new technology for electricvehicle

In partnership with other companies, the companydevelops the first lithium battery.

71

Page 72: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Content1. Global Macroeconomic Scenario

2. Global Automotive Scenario

3. LATAM Macroeconomic Scenario

4. LATAM Automotive Scenario

5. Brazil Overview5. Brazil Overview

6. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico Projections

7. Brazilian New Automotive Policy

8. Brazilian Auto Part Scenario

9. Brazilian Sustainability Trends

10. PwC Brazil

Page 73: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

• In Brazil since 1915

• 17 offices

PwC - Presence in Brazil

• 17 offices

• 160 partners

• 4.700 staff

• #1 in size and reputation

BeloHorizonte

BrasiliaSalvador

Recife

73PwC 73

PwC offices in Brazil

São Paulo

Rio de Janeiro (2)

Porto Alegre

Florianópolis

Curitiba

Caxias do Sul

BarueriCampinasRibeirão Preto (2)São José dos CamposSorocaba

Page 74: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

•Forecast Outlook and Industry Advisory;

•Site Location, Negotiation with government (city,

PwC - Consulting Services

•Tax Planning;

•Tax Consultancy;•Site Location, Negotiation with government (city,

state and federal government);

•Human Resources, Organization, Processes and

Change Management

•Supplier identification and certification;

•Operational planning;

•Logistic planning;

•Tax Consultancy;

•Corporate Restructuring;

•Review of Procedures and Federal, Estate

and Municipal Taxes;

•Transfer Pricing.

PwC 74

•Logistic planning;

•Project management of the plant construction;

• Information Technology;

•Business Plan of the new business.

Page 75: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Market Intelligence

Commercial Management and

Productivity

Loyalty programs

Client Field Services

Site location Identify and quantify improve

opportunities Strategy Plan Implement strategy Feasibility Study

Integrated Plan

Demand Plan

PwC - Supply & Demand Chain Management

Supply &Demand

ChainManagement

Strategy

Client Field Services

Category Management

Campaign Management

Release Product

Sales Force Automation

Sales Cycle Management

Warehouse and Distribution

Center Optimization

Production Plan

Material Plan

Collaborative Plan

Strategic Sourcing

PwC75

Lean Manufacturing

Asset Management

Quality and productivity

Product Value Analysis

Operation

Logistic cost reduction

Inbound/Outbound process

optimization

Review Contract Model

Increase Liability and flexibility

Reverse logistic

Strategic Sourcing

Master Data

Procurement process

Supplier Development

Supply integration

E-procurement

ERP,APS,TMS

Page 76: Brazilian Automotive Market Analysis - PwC Automotive Market Analysis July 09, 2012 – Tokyo ... Thailand should deliver a third sequential global record for light vehicle assembly

Where we are

Thankyou!!!

Rio de Janeiro

PwC

Rio de Janeiro