brazil protests analysis

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13/03/2016 Documento confidencial. Não circular, não divulgar.

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Page 1: Brazil protests analysis

13/03/2016Documento confidencial. Não circular, não divulgar.

Page 2: Brazil protests analysis

Summary

(1) The protests of 13M confirmed the expectations based on analyses of the social networks, and are already equal to or even larger than those of 15 March 2015. In total, there were more than 900,000 mentions of the protests yesterday, a volume very similar to 15M.

(2) It is possible to observe the growth of a ‘independent’ group, which manifests itself critically towards the poles traditionally placed in the debate – especially in relation to 15M. This reflects a wider feeling of rejection of the entire political class and the political system.

(3) It is worth noting the possible opening of a new horizon of political identity, not aligned to any of the traditional parties, but based on the rejection of the political system as a whole and aligned with new actors that have not yet fully emerged.

(4) The demonstrations had important international repercussions. There were more than 260,000 messages about the protests. The Latin American capitals led the ranking with the most mentions of 13M: Caracas and Buenos Aires, followed by New York Paris, London, and Madrid.

Page 3: Brazil protests analysis

Evolution of mentions of protests

During the week, the mentions of the acts of 13 March (yellow) showed a very similar behavior to the mentions of 15 March 2015 – the largest of last year – suggesting acts of a similar size.

13 March registered more than 900,000 mentions, confirming the prevision that it would be reach a level similar to the protests of March 2015.

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(b)

(c)(d)

(e)The peaks of mentions indicate the protests of (a) 15 March; (b) 12 April; (c) 16 August 2015; and (d) the repercussion of the opening of the impeachment process. Point (e) shows the mentions yesterday, far above 800,000.

(a)

Mentions of protests during the last 12 months

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Hashtags for and against the government

The analysis of the evolution of the principal hashtags for and against the government also reflects the increase in mentions from yesterday to today. For the first time in the 10-day period observed, mentions against the government widely exceeded favorable mentions. At 18:00 there were more than 200,000 mentions of anti-government hashtags.

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Theme Monitor

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Interactions Map

Social Network Analysis: Comparison between 15M and 13M

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It is possible to observe the emergence of a growing ‘independent’ group, which manifests itself in a critical form to both poles traditionally placed in the debate – especially in comparison with the protests of last year. Through the language of humor and sarcasm, it promotes a ‘de-legitimation’ of the debate between supporters of the government and the opposition. This reflects a more diffuse feeling of rejection of the entire political class and the political system. It is not possible to state with much clarity with whom this group identifies. The identity occurs more with ‘principles’ such as ‘trust,’ ‘truth,’ ‘legality,’ and ‘transparency.’

If confirmed, this phenomenon signifies the opening of a new horizon of political identity, not aligned with any of the traditional parties and actors. But rather based on the rejection of the current political system as a whole and the opening of an undefined alignment with new emerging actors. Perhaps we are witnessing only the beginning of a process whose outcome is very hard to predict. Who will capitalize on this attrition of the political class is still an open question, which deserves to be closely monitored, including on the networks.

Ω

Analysis

Page 9: Brazil protests analysis

The group of red colored profiles are organized around the sharing of messages of support for the federal government and opposed to the demonstrations.

The blue group refers to profiles of support for the demonstrations, in favor of impeachment, and mostly opposed to the actions of the federal government. There was a high volume of mentions about a possible military intervention.

15 March 2015Strongly polarized debate between government and opposition

Page 10: Brazil protests analysis

The group of red profiles reflects the pro-government profiles.

The group of blue profiles reflect those with visions more anti-government and pro-impeachment. Due to news reports, part of the media was absorbed and used by these actors in their discourse.

11 March 2016The days prior to 13M reproduced the polarization between the government and the opposition

Page 11: Brazil protests analysis

The group of blue profiles reflects those with more anti-government and pro-impeachment profiles. The fact that they exchange a lot of information among them makes them visually more compact.

The group of red profiles reflects the pro-government profiles. The high level of mentions indicates a reaction of these sectors to the mobilization of opposition groups.

Saturday showed the beginning of the growth of a pole of non-aligned profiles, adopting a position critical of both poles of debate, and giving a forecast of what would happen on the day of the protests.

12 March 2016The eve of 13M reveals an offensive by government supporters, increasing their presence.

Page 12: Brazil protests analysis

The group of yellow and green profiles use the native language of the nets. The comments use a humoristic and sarcastic tone to deal with the protests. In this group new emerging actors with an undefined political alignment can be observed.

The group of blue profiles reflects those with anti-government and pro-impeachment visions. The blue pole is larger than the red and represents support for the protests.

The group of red profiles reflects the pro-government profiles.

13 March 2016The day of 13M, however, revealed a growth of non-aligned sectors.

Page 13: Brazil protests analysis

Word Cloud for the opposition group

15 March 2015 13 March 2016

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Word Cloud for the opposition group

15 March 2015 13 March 2016

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Word Cloud for the ‘humorous’ comment group

15 March 2015 13 March 2016

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Political Actors

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Volume of mentions of political actors

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Volume of mentions of political actors

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Volume of mentions of political actors - Lula and Dilma Rousseff

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In the last 24 hours, the federal judge Sérgio Moro alone received more than 29,000 mentions on Twitter. Of these messages, 17% came from São Paulo, 10% from Rio de Janeiro, 5% from Curitiba, 4% from Belo Horizonte, and 4% from Brasília. The content mostly refers to the federal judge’s support of the demonstrators.

Analysis of the presence of Sérgio Moro on the networks

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Number of mentions of Sérgio Moro

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Word Cloud about Sergio Moro

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Top Cities, Top Hashtags, Top Words

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International Repercussion

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The demonstrations had an important international repercussion. On Twitter alone, there were more than

260,000 messages about the protests. The languages which had the biggest repercussions were Spanish, English,

French, Italian, and German. The Latin American capitals led the ranking with the most mentions of 13M: Caracas,

Buenos Aires, followed by New York, Paris, London, and Madrid. The principal hashtags used by foreigners were

#brazil and #13m.

International Repercussion

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Mentions of protests in the world

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Top Cities, Top Hashtags, Top Words

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Top Tweets

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Top URLs

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Top images

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Conclusions

Page 32: Brazil protests analysis

The figures most talked about on the social networks, in addition to president Dilma Rousseff and former president Lula, the principal targets of the demonstrations this Sunday, were Aécio Neves, Geraldo Alckmin, and Eduardo Cunha. The first two were remembered because of the hostility they received on Avenida Paulista. Judge Sérgio Moro also had a large number of mentions on the network, with the presence of supporters of the actions of Lava Jato and criticism of its selectivity.

Debates around the figure of the president of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, accompanied other politicians, such as Eduardo Cunha, Dilma, Alckmin, Lula, and Aécio. The demonstrations also involved messages about the investigations into these figures and the inquiries involved.

The message showed the opening and the strength of a field which renounced the existing polarization. Principally through humor and sarcasm, there is a de-legitimation of politicians and the system as a whole.

Conclusions