brazil macroeconomic outlook - economiaemdia.com.br · brazil that brazilians and foreigners need...
TRANSCRIPT
December, 2018
Economic Research Department
BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
PRIMARY SURPLUS% of GDP
Source: BCB, Bradesco
2.4%2.0% 2.1%
2.8%
1.2%
2.8%
2.1%
1.6% 1.4%
-0.3%
-1.9%
-2.6%
-1.9% -1.8%
-1.2%
-3.5%
-2.5%
-1.5%
-0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CONFIDENCE INDEXIndustrial sector
Source: CNI, Bradesco
62.7
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO EMPRESÁRIO INDUSTRIAL (ICEI) - DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS
INVENTORIES LEVELIndustrial sector, the higher the indicator, the higher the inventories
Source: FGV, Bradesco
105.8107.1
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Título do Gráfico
Historical average
estoques invertidos
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXSep/2005 = 100
Source: FGV, Bradesco
93.2
74.6
106.4
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO CONSUMIDOR (ICC) E SEUS COMPONENTES (DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS)
Confidence
Current Situation
Expectations
Fonte: FGVElaboração: Bradesco Setembro/2005=10
GDPAnnual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4.4
1.4
3.1
1.1
5.8
3.24.0
6.15.1
-0.1
7.5
4.0
1.93.0
0.5
-3.5 -3.5
1.0 1.1
2.8
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
PIB anual
GDP - CONSUMPTIONAnnual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4.0%
0.8%1.3%
-0.5%
3.9%4.4%
5.3%6.4%6.5%
4.5%
6.2%
4.8%
3.5%3.5%
2.2%
-3.2%-4.3%
1.0%2.0%
2.8%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Renda real
RETAIL SALESAnnual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
3.1%
6.4%
13.6%
9.9%
6.8%
12.2%
6.6%8.0%
3.6%
-1.7%
-8.6% -8.7%
4.0%5.5% 5.5%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
PMC ampliada anual
REAL INCOMESAnnual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
-1.7%
1.1%
4.1%
3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3%2.9%
4.3%
3.3%
1.1%
0.1%
-2.3%
2.3%
0.8%1.3%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Renda real
UNEMPLOYMENT RATEAnnual Average, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
9.5% 9.6%8.7%
9.2%9.8%10.1%9.8%
9.3%9.8%
8.8%8.0%
8.5% 8.2%7.6% 7.3% 7.2%
6.8%
8.3%
11.3%
12.8% 12.3%11.9%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Título do Gráfico
PAYROLLNumber of formal Jobs, in thousands
Source: MTE, Bradesco
762 645
15231254 1229
16171452
995
2137
1566
868 731
153
-1626-1371
-123
300
700
-2.000
-1.500
-1.000
-500
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Saldo Caged
GDP - INVESTIMENTSAnnual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4.8%
1.3%
-1.4%-4.0%
8.5%
2.0%
6.7%
12.0%
-2.1%
17.9%
6.8%
0.8%
5.8%
-4.2%
-13.9%
-10.3%
-1.8%
3.5%6.5%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Renda real
GDP - AGRICULTURALAnnual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
2.01.1
4.63.2
5.8
-3.7
6.75.6
-3.1
8.4
2.8 3.3
-4.3
13.0
0.0
3.5
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Título
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
GDP – INDUSTRIALAnnual rate of change, %
8.2%
2.0% 2.0%
6.2%
4.1%
-4.7%
10.2%
4.1%
-0.7%
2.2%
-1.5%
-5.8%
-4.0%
0.0%1.5%
3.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Renda real
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
GDP - SERVICESAnnual rate of change, %
5.0
3.74.3
5.8
4.8
2.1
5.8
3.52.9 2.8
1.0
-2.7 -2.6
0.31.0
2.5
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Serviços
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
GDP - CONSTRUCTIONAnnual rate of change, %
-2.1%
0.3%
9.2%
4.9%7.0%
13.1%
8.2%
3.2%4.5%
-2.1%
-9.0%
-5.6% -5.0%
-0.3%
4.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Título do Gráfico
DESPITE THE EXPECTED RECOVERY, IT WILL TAKE SOME YEARS TO COME BACK TO BRAZILIAN GDP PEAK LEVEL
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
125
135
145
155
165
175
185
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Focus Bradesco2018: 1.36% 1.10%2019: 2.50% 2.80%
CONSUMER PRICES INDEX – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
7.7%
12.5%
9.3%
7.6%
5.7%
3.1%
4.5%
5.9%
4.3%
5.9%6.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4%
10.7%
6.3%
2.95%3.8% 4.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
REGULATED PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
10.8%
15.3%
13.2%
10.2%9.0%
4.3%
1.7%3.3%
4.7%3.1%
6.2%
3.7%
1.5%
5.3%
18.1%
5.5%
8.0%6.7%
5.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
ADMINISTRADOS ANUAL
DURABLE GOODS PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4.5%
7.9%
3.9%
8.9%
3.1%
-1.8%
0.0%0.0%
-1.9%
0.9%
-1.6%
-3.5%
3.6%3.0%
3.6%
1.3%
-1.1%
1.6%2.0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Título do Gráfico
SERVICES PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4.9%5.5%
7.3%6.7%
5.7%5.8%
8.1%
6.7%
8.0%
9.8%
8.7%8.3%
8.1%
6.5%
4.7%
3.4%3.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
SERVIÇOS ANUAL
FOOD PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
9.6%
21.6%
6.7%
2.6%0.6%
-0.1%
12.4%10.7%
0.9%
10.7%
5.4%
10.0%
7.1%
12.9%
9.4%
-4.9%
4.2%4.5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Alimentação Domicilio
NOMINAL INTEREST RATESelic, Annual rate
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
15.75%
25.00%
16.50%18.00%
13.25%
11.25%
13.75%
8.75%
11.00%
7.25%
10.00%
14.25%13.75%
7.00% 6.50%7.25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATER$/US$
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
3.89
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
Mar-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATER$/US$, end of period
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
1.962.32
3.53
2.892.65
2.342.14
1.77
2.34
1.74 1.671.88
2.042.34
2.66
3.90
3.26 3.31
3.80 3.70
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Taxa de câmbio - R$ / US$ - Final
SELECTED CURRENCIESAccumulated variation in the last 12 months
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
116.8%
18.1%10.1% 7.0% 5.6% 4.6% 4.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.2% 0.0%
-0.8%
-25.0%
-5.0%
15.0%
35.0%
55.0%
75.0%
95.0%
115.0%
135.0%A
rge
nti
na
Turk
ey
Pak
ista
n
Bra
zil
Ru
ssia
Índ
ia
Ind
on
esi
a
Me
xico
Hu
nga
ry UK
Po
lan
d
Colo
mbi
a
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Pe
ru
Chin
a
Au
stra
lia
Can
ada
DX
Y
Taiw
an
Sou
th A
fric
a
Kor
ea
Vie
tnam
Ch
ile
Mal
aysi
a
Sin
gap
ore
Thai
lan
d
UA
E
Swit
zerl
and
Jap
an
Ne
w Z
eal
and
EXCHANGE RATER$/US$, DXY index
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
96.67
3.89
2.1
2.8
3.5
4.2
80
85
90
95
100
105
Mar-16 Nov-16 Jul-17 Mar-18 Dec-18
Dólar em relação à cesta DXY. Fonte: Bloomberg.
DXY Real
5 YEARS CDS AND BRL R$/US$
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
213.21
3.88
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
-50.00
50.00
150.00
250.00
350.00
450.00
550.00
Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18
CDS_5 BRL
OIL PRICES US$/barrel
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
53.89
63.08
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18
WTI BRENT
IRON ORE PRICES US$/ton
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
12.5 13.0 12.7 13.8 16.428.1
33.5 36.6
61.6
80.0
146.7
167.8
128.5135.4
96.8
55.6 58.9
71.866.0
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
NÍVEL MÉDIO ANUAL DO MINÉRIO DE FERRO (PREÇO SPOT NO PORTO DE TIANJIN/CHINA, MINÉRIO COM 62% DE TEOR DE FERRO) - US$/TONELADA
FONTE: FMIELABORAÇÃO E (P) PROJEÇÃO: BRADESCO
SOYBEAN PRICES US$/bushel
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
5.0 4.65.1
6.3
7.5
6.1 5.9
8.6
12.3
10.3 10.5
13.2
14.614.1
12.5
9.5 9.9 9.8 9.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Título do Gráfico
BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT US$ million, deficit as % of GDP
Source: BCB, Bradesco
-120,000
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
-3.3% GDP
-1.3%GDP
-4.2% GDP
-0.7%GDP
-0.7%GDP
-0.5%GDP
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT US$ billion
Source: BCB, Bradesco
28.928.433.0
23.216.6
10.118.215.519.4
44.650.7
31.5
88.5
101.2
86.6
69.2
96.9
75.178.970.370.072.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Título do Gráfico
BRAZIL THAT BRAZILIANS AND FOREIGNERS NEED TO KNOW
o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SUGARo 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER COFFEEo 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ORANGE JUICEo 1st PRODUCER REGIONAL JETSo 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SOYBENSo 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER CATTLE MEATo 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER TOBACCOo 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ALCOHOLo 2nd EXPORTER FOOD PRODUCTSo 2nd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER IRON OREo 3rd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER POULTRY MEATo 3rd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER CORNo 3rd ELETRIC POWERo 3rd CONSUMER PERSONAL COMPUTERo 3rd PRODUCER FRUITSo 3rd PRODUCER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFTo 3rd INTERNET USERSo 3rd PRODUCER BUSESo 3rd PRODUCER FOOTWEARo 3rd CONSUMER PERFUMES AND COSMETICSo 3rd PRODUCER BAUXITEo 4th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER PORK MEATo 4th PRODUCER BEVERAGESo 4th PRODUCER MILKo 4th PRODUCER CERAMICS COVERINGS
o 4th PRODUCER SHIPPING INDUSTRYo 4th PRODUCER PULPo 4th PRODUCER TRUCKSo 4th CONSUMER MOBILE PHONESo 4th ROAD NETWORK EXTENSIONo 4th PRODUCER CLOTHINGo 5th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER COTTONo 5th PRODUCER AND 7th EXPORTER ORNAMENT STONESo 5th PRODUCER TEXTILEo 5th PRODUCER COCOAo 5th PRODUCER CEMENTo 5th PRODUCER PAPERo 6th PRODUCER PHARMACEUTICALo 6th PRODUCER CHEMICALo 7th CONSUMER MARKETo 7th PRODUCER RICEo 7th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER SALES CARSo 8th PRODUCER ALUMINIUMo 9th PRODUCER STEELo 11th PRODUCER HONEYo 13th PRODUCER OILo 15th WIND ENERGYo 15th PRODUCER WHEAT
DEPEC-BRADESCOwww.economiaemdia.com.brDEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information providedin its publications and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked anddrawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or normfor any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize thatall the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by theuser, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out thataccess to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage.The reproduction of the content in this report partially or in full is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if theSources the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO are strictly mentioned.
Updated: December 7th, 2018