brazil economic outlook 3q18 - bbva research · currency depreciation in emerging countries (*)...
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BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 1
Brazil Economic
Outlook
3Q18
July 2018
Key messages
Increased financial tensions in emerging markets,
including Brazil, in line with the process of withdrawal of
monetary stimuli in the United States and protectionist threats.
At local level, tensions have been fueled by political uncertainty
and the fiscal imbroglio. The relative strength of the Brazilian
external accounts has prevented the situation from becoming
even more difficult.
Growth prospects deteriorate: the recovery process will be more gradual than previously
expected. Financial volatility, the negative effects of exchange rate depreciation on inflation
and thus on the ability of monetary policy to stimulate the economy, doubts about whether
the next government will face fiscal problems and the consequences of the recent truckers’
strike, among other factors, make it more likely that growth in 2018 and 2019 will be 1.6%
and 2.4%, respectively, instead of 2.1% and 3.0% as previously expected.
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 _/ 3
Contents
01
02
Global environment: global growth continues,
but risks are intensifying
Brazil: deterioration of the prospects for
economic growth
03 Brazil: forecast table
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 _/ 4
01Global environment:
global growth continues, but risks are intensifying
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 5
Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying
The pace of global expansion is
being maintained, but is less
synchronized
Growth is robust in the US due
to the fiscal stimulus and stable
in China, but it has been reduced
in Europe
01Increased protectionism
At the moment, its impact
on growth is limited, but it
could be greater if the
measures under discussion
were to be implemented
02Increase in the price of oil
Higher inflation and drag on
growth in oil-importing countries
03
Different pace of monetary
normalization in Europe and
the United States
Strengthening of the dollar
and tightening of global
financial conditions
04More volatility in emerging
markets
Increased financial tensions due
to increased financing costs and
protectionist threats
05Global risks are intensifying
The possibility of a trade war
comes together with greater
risks in emerging economies
and in Europe
06
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 6
Robust global economy despite growing uncertainty
Global growth continues,
supported by private
consumption and investment,
but with growing differences
by region
World trade continues to show
a positive trend, although it is
losing momentum and still
does not reflect
the protectionist escalation
Confidence indicators show
some moderation, but remain
at high levels
World GDP growth(Forecasts based on BBVA-GAIN, % QoQ)
Source: BBVA Research
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Jun-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jun-1
4
Dec-1
4
Jun-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jun-1
6
Dec-1
6
Jun-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jun-1
8CI 20% CI 40% CI 60%
Point Estimates Period average
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 7
Limited effect of approved tariff increases, but significant
if those being discussed are implemented
The tariff increases approved by
the US would have a limited direct
impact. Indirect effects, via
economic confidence and financial
channel, could be felt in 2H18
With a protectionist escalation,
the negative effect on growth
would also be significant in
the US
The effect, smaller in Europe,
would differ by country and would,
above all, affect Germany and the
countries in Eastern Europe
The growth of global GDP could
be reduced by around 0.2 pp just
due to the trade channel
Effect on GDP growth of US tariff increases
and the response by other countries(2018-19, pp)
Measures announced: tariff increase to 25% on steel, 10% on aluminium and 25% on Chinese imports for a value
of US$50 billion.
Measures under discussion: Tariff increases up to 20% on cars and Chinese imports for a value of US$200 billion.
Source: BBVA Research
-0.45
-0.40
-0.35
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
Current measures Measures under discussion
World US China Eurozone
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 8
The rise in the price of oil will push inflation
upwards and could weigh down growth
The increase is due to a reduction
in supply. The price will remain
relatively stable in 2018 and 2019
Higher inflation in the euro zone,
although below the target, while
core inflation will increase
gradually from very low levels
In the USA the impact will be
lower, but inflation will remain
above the target in 2018-19
The exit strategy of the Fed and
the ECB is reinforced
Upward revision of the price of oil and inflation(%)
Source: BBVA Research
April 2018 July 2018
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2018 2019
Brent
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2018 2019 2018 2019
Eurozone inflation US inflation
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 9
Fed and ECB return to conventional monetary
policy each at a different pace
Gradual ending of QE
between September
and December 2018
Reduction of US$450
billion in 2018
The pace of rate
hikes accelerates
in 2018
Delay in rate hikes
until September 2019
0.75%
1.5% 2.00%
3.25%0.55%
2016 2017 2018 2019
0% 0% 0%
0.25%
2016 2017 2018 2019
Assessment Interest rates
Source: BBVA Research
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 10
The strength of the US dollar and higher interest
rates are causing an adjustment in emerging markets
The most vulnerable countries are
those with the greatest trade
deficit and the greatest need for
external financing
Shift towards a tightening of
monetary policy in emerging
countries (except China) to avoid
further depreciation of their
currencies
The increase in financial tensions
also reflects the intensification of
trade disputes
EUR-USD exchange rate and BBVA index of
financial tensions in emerging markets
Source: BBVA Research based on Bloomberg
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Ma
r-1
3
Sep
-13
Ma
r-1
4
Sep
-14
Ma
r-1
5
Sep
-15
Ma
r-1
6
Sep
-16
Ma
r-1
7
Sep
-17
Ma
r-1
8
Financial stress in emerging marketsEURUSD (RHS, inverted)
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 11
Protectionism and political factors lead
to a growing risk aversion
Investor sentiment has shifted
from a framework of risk-taking
(and even a certain complacency)
to one of risk aversion
The change is causing a rotation
of flows between assets: from
emerging markets to developed
ones, and from equities to bonds
Trade tensions could lead to an
environment of flight towards
quality
Risk appetite/aversion indicator
Source: BBVA Research
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-1
7
Oct-
17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-1
8
Average from 2014 (max and min)
"Risk-on mood"
"Risk-off mood"
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 12
Stable growth in the US,
but a slowdown in other areas
Source: BBVA Research
2018
2.82019
2.8
USA
2018
2.62019
2.0
Mexico
2018
0.92019
2.1
South America
2018
3.82019
3.0
Turkey
2018
2.02019
1.7
Eurozone
2018
6.32019
6.0
China
Down
Up
Unchanged
2018
3.82019
3.8
World
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 13
Global risks: the main one is a trade war, but those
associated with emerging economies and Europe are increasing
Sourcce: BBVA Research
USA
EZ
CHINA
Sh
ort
-te
rm p
rob
ab
ilit
y
Severity
EM
CHINA
High indebtedness: more contained but still high
Protectionism: upwards (retaliation) with possible impact on
domestic policies (financial stability, reforms)
USA
Protectionism: upwards
The Fed exit strategy: high.Aggressive rate hikes in the face of a
temporary increase in inflation
Signs of over-valuation of certain financial assets
EUROZONE
Political uncertainty: on the upswing, led by Italy. Brexit: risk of a
rough departure
Protectionism: on the upside with a focus on the auto sector
Exit strategy by the ECB: on the downside (delay of rate hikes)
EMERGING ECONOMIES
Upward. Global risks and domestic vulnerabilities in some countries
are raising the risk of a systemic crisis
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 _/ 14
02Brazil:
deterioration of the growth
prospects of the economy
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 15
Source: BBVA Research
Recent financial tensions helped put an end to the excessive
optimism of the markets with regard to Brazil
BBVA index of financial tensions(average since Jan-06 = 0)
Until a few months ago, the markets seemed to be
ignoring the risks related to the increase in interest
rates in developed countries as well as those
associated with political and fiscal uncertainty in
Brazil.
Despite the interventions of the Central Bank (BCB), the
real has been among the currencies most affected by
recent turbulence. The Sao Paulo Stock Exchange has
shrunk 9% and the country risk increased 19% (up to 298
bps) in the last three months
Currency depreciation in emerging countries (*)
(percentage change)
(*) A positive value indicates a depreciation of the local currency. Data up until 13 July.
Source: Bloomberg
-1,5
-0,5
0,5
1,5
2,5
3,5
4,5
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Oct-
14
Jan-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
Ja
n-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-1
6
Oct-
16
Ja
n-1
7
Ap
r-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Oct-
17
Jan-1
8
Ap
r-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Brazil Emerging Economies
Rousseff's
impeachment
process
News of recording in
which Temer allegedly
endorses bribes
Recent
turbulence
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Arg
entin
a
Turk
ey
Bra
zil
Hu
nga
ry
Po
lan
d
Ch
ile
Co
lom
bia
India
Ind
on
esia
Me
xic
o
Ma
laysia
Peru
Ukra
ine
Ru
ssia
Last three months Year-to-date
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 16
Recent financial volatility: triggered by global factors,
fueled by local factors
Currency depreciation: weights of global and
local factors in the year-to-dateThe increases in interest rates in
the United States and protectionism
threats were the main triggers of the
recent correction in financial assets
prices in emerging economies,
including the depreciation
of the exchange rate in Brazil
The exchange rate depreciation was
sharper in Brazil than in other regions.
Although the external indicators of
the Brazilian economy are relatively
positive, some local factors have
significantly contributed to weaken
the Brazilian real
Among these local factors are:
• increased political uncertainty
• the fiscal imbroglio
Source: BBVA Research
10%
90%
Global factors Local factors
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 17
Political uncertainty: the race for the presidency
is still fairly wide open
Presidential poll (conducted between 21-24 June 2018)
There are still many candidates with
possibilities of winning the presidential
elections in October
The biggest favourite would probably be
Lula, who for judicial reasons is unlikely
to be able to run as a candidate
Polls show that the proportion of blank
and spoiled ballot papers could be
exceptionally high
This, as well as the historically low
approval of the current government,
is reinforcing the perception of social
weariness and repudiation of the
political class
* Sum of the candidates with less than 5% of voting intention.
Source: CNI/IBOPE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
J. B
ols
ona
ro
Ma
rina
S.
C. G
om
es
G. A
lckm
in
Oth
ers
*
Bla
nk / s
poile
d
Un
de
cid
ed
vo
ters
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 18
(*) Primary expenses and income of the federal government.
Source: IPEADATA, BBVA Research
Political uncertainty fuels doubts about whether the structural deterioration
of public accounts will be reversed in the coming years
Primary expenses and revenues (*)
(% of GDP)
The tax increases and controls on spending (including the
introduction of a ceiling on its growth) announced in recent
years have been insufficient to reverse the negative fiscal trends.
Public debt, for example, continues to rise (77% of GDP in May)
Public expenditure remains high, largely due to
the increase in the expenses in which the
government has no discretionary power to
reduce, as is the case of social security expenses
Breakdown of primary expenses (*)
(% of total expenses)
(*) Federal government expenses.
Source: IPEADATA, BBVA Research
3540 44
3026 22
612 14
2822 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1997 2007 2017
Discretionary expenses
Non-discretionary expenses: others
Non-discretionary expenses: wages
Non-discretionary expenses: social security
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Primary expenses Primary revenue
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 19
How to deal with the fiscal imbroglio? There are no easy solutions...
The level of taxation in Brazil is already excessively high.
Raising taxes is a politically costly option that, in addition,
would damage the competitiveness of the private sector.
A privatization programme could be an alternative, but
would have a high political cost and a relatively limited
fiscal impact. Another option would be to reduce the fiscal
benefits granted to specific sectors of the economy
Taking into account the high level of public spending, it may
be the best alternative in economic terms. In any case, the
margin to cut costs without a reform of social security or a
reform to reduce the proportion of non-discretionary spending
is very low. These reforms require a government with a high
level of political capital: both Dilma Rousseff and Michel
Temer tried unsuccessfully to adopt measures in this
direction...
A significant increase in growth would increase
the collection of taxes and improve the public accounts, as
was observed between 2004 and 2013. However, an
expansion stimulated by external factors now seems
unlikely given the moderation of the Chinese economy and
of commodity markets. An expansion based on internal
factors is difficult if reforms that increase productivity are
not made and if the fiscal imbroglio is not faced
Without an independent management of monetary policy by
the central bank, there could be a temptation to increase
inflation to facilitate the payment of non-indexed public debt.
It would be a dangerous alternative, with potentially very
negative results, as shown by Brazil’s economic history...
By increasing taxation? By reducing public spending?
By increasing economic
growth?
By yielding to the temptation to increase
inflation to facilitate payment of the debt?
01 02
03 04
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 20
Measures to improve the fiscal situation are expected from 2019,
but an ambitious reform of social security seems less likely
Fiscal balance (*)
(% of GDP)Given the political uncertainty, it is
difficult to foresee how the fiscal
problem will be faced in the future
The next government is likely to
announce measures to increase taxes
and reduce spending to calm the
markets and to meet fiscal objectives,
which could even be relaxed
An ambitious reform of social security is
less likely
So is a scenario of fiscal inaction, given
its high economic cost (increase in
financing costs and inflation, a more
depreciated exchange rate, lower GDP
growth, etc.)
(*) (f) = forecasts.
Source: BCB, BBVA Research
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
(f)
2019
(f)
2020
(f)
2021
(f)
2022
(f)
Primary result Interest payments Total fiscal result
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 21
Having the external accounts under control has prevented
recent volatility from becoming even more marked
External indicators for selected
emerging economies(Current account balance and reserves / external debt ratio) While political uncertainty and
fiscal problems contributed to recent
financial tensions, the relatively good
state of the external accounts prevented
an even more difficult scenario
Brazil has US$382 billion in international
reserves, equivalent to 19% of GDP or
350% of short-term external debt
The current account deficit is currently
low (0.6% of GDP), lower than direct
foreign investment in the country (3.1%
in May)
We expect the external deficit to remain
at low levels (0.3% of GDP in 2018 and
1.4% of GDP in 2019), in line with a
depreciated exchange rate and weak
domestic demand
Source: : BBVA Research, BIS, IIF, IMF, World Bank, National sources
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
-6,0 -5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0
Reserv
es /
exte
rnal debt
ratio
Current account(% of GDP)
Brazil
Russia
Malaysia
Hungary
Poland
Peru
India
Turkey
Argentina
Ukraine
Chile
Colombia
Indonesia
Mexico
+-
+
-
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 22
The exchange rate will remain at more depreciated levels
than those observed up until a few months ago
Exchange rate(Real / US dollar)
The depreciation of the real has
been stronger than we expected,
despite the fact that the central bank
has intervened heavily through the
sale of f exchange rate swaps.
There is little margin for the real,
which is at around 3.85 per US
dollar, to appreciate in the short term.
Volatility will remain high at least until
the October presidential elections
The reduction of uncertainty after the
elections and the possible positive
signals of the new government on
the fiscal issue should allow some
appreciation of the exchange rate
from the end of the year on
Source: : BBVA Research
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Current forecasts Previous forecasts (April 2018)
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 23
Source: BBVA Research
The exchange depreciation will generate greater
inflationary pressures
Our estimates suggest that in the current environment a
10% depreciation in the exchange rate has an
accumulated effect on inflation of almost 0.6
percentage points in a 12-month period
They also show that the degree of pass-through in
Brazil is currently lower than 2 or 3 years ago,
although higher than in the previous period (from
2012 to mid-2015)
Effect on the inflation rate of a 10%
depreciation of the exchange rate(cumulative effect, in basis points)
Degree of pass-through over the last years (*)
(in %)
(*) Coefficient associated with external prices / exchange rate obtained from the
estimation of a Phillips Curve for Brazil
Source: BBVA Research
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8
quarters
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
Jan-1
2
Ma
y-12
Sep
-12
Jan-1
3
Ma
y-13
Sep
-13
Jan-1
4
Ma
y-14
Sep
-14
Jan-1
5
Ma
y-15
Sep
-15
Jan-1
6
Ma
y-16
Sep
-16
Jan-1
7
Ma
y-17
Sep
-17
Jan-1
8
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 24
Inflation on the upside
Inflation: IPCA(in %, end of period)
Inflation, which remained below 3.0%
between January and May, reached
4.4% in June, largely due to the
shortages caused by the truckers’ strike
Taking this into account, as well as the
heavy depreciation of the exchange rate
and the higher price of oil, among other
factors, we have adjusted our inflation
forecasts upwards, from 3.7% to 4.5%
in 2018 and from 4.5% to 4.7% in 2019
Source: BBVA Research
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Current forecasts Previous forecasts (April 2018)
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 25
Less expansionary monetary policy
Interest rates: SELIC(in %, end of period)
The exchange rate depreciation has
caused the BCB to keep interest rates at
6.50% instead of cutting them by 25 bps
in June
They will most likely remain at 6.50%
until the beginning of 2019, when
inflationary pressures will force the BCB
to start a monetary tightening cycle
(earlier and more aggressive than
previously expected)
Guaranteeing the independence of the
BCB in the coming years will be
fundamental: the level of debt and the
spending ceiling rule create certain
incentives to increase inflation in an
environment in which inflation targets are
being cut (4.25% in 2019, 4.0% in 2020
and 3.75% in 2021)
Source: BBVA Research
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Current forecasts Previous forecasts (April 2018)
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 26
The recent truckers’ strike has also had negative effects on
the economic environment...
Indicators of economic activity (*)(change in %)
The truck drivers’ strike, caused by
factors such as the increase in the
price of fuel and supported by a large
part of the population, generated a
situation of shortages in the last days
of May
The situation caused a strong upswing
in prices and a significant reduction in
economic activity, which could be
reversed in the coming months to
some extent
It is also possible that the episode
could negatively affect confidence
during a more prolonged period,
hindering the recovery of the economy
(*) Last month available: May, in the cases of industrial production and retail sales; June, in
the case of confidence indicators. Retail sales: broad indicator.
Source: IBGE, CNI and FGV
-18,0
-16,0
-14,0
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
Industrialproduction
Retail sales Consumerconfidence
Businessconfidence
Change in the last month Change in the last three months
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 27
...there is, therefore, a series of factors contributing
to a deterioration of growth expectations in Brazil
05Lower
probabilityof fiscal
reforms andadjustments
01Less
favourable global
environment
04Increasedpolitical
uncertainty
02Probable
slowdownof the
Argentinian economy
06Greaterfinancial volatility
07Higher
inflation
08Less
expansionarymonetary
policy
09Effects of
the truckers’strike
03Lower growththan expected
in 1Q18
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 28
We have revised the growth forecasts for Brazil downwards;
the recovery will be slower than previously expected
Despite the reduced optimism, the recovery of growth must continue,
supported by relatively solid global demand, the performance of the
agricultural sector, the expansive tone of monetary policy and the
adjustments made in previous years, etc.
Likewise, growth could slow if there is no
progress in resolving fiscal problems,
mainly in the case of a further increase in
global risk aversion
2017 20192018
2.4%
(now)2.1%
(before) 1.6%
(now)
3.0%
(before)
1.0%
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 29
The recovery of private consumption and investment will be
gradual, exports will continue to contribute positively
We have revised downwards our forecasts for
private consumption and investments, in line
with the deterioration of the macroeconomic
picture in recent months
Although we expect a lower contribution of domestic demand to
growth, the outlook for external demand is more favorable, due
to the effects of greater depreciation of the exchange rate and
the lower pressure of domestic demand on imports
Growth of GDP and its components(*)
(%)
(*) (f) Forecasts.
Source: BBVA Research
-2,5
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
GDP Investment Private consumption Public consumption Exports Imports
2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 _/ 30
03Brazil:
Forecast table
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 31
(f) Forecast
2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
GDP -3,5 1.0 1.6 2.4
Private consumption (%) -4.3 0.9 1.7 1.8
Public consumption (%) -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5
Investment in fixed capital (%) -10.3 -1.9 2.9 5.0
Exports (%) 1.9 5.7 5.5 6.8
Imports (%) -10.2 5.5 4.8 4.2
Unemployment rate (average) 11.3 12.7 12.3 11.0
Inflation (end of period, YoY %) 6.3 2.9 4.5 4.7
SELIC rate (end of period, YoY %) 13.75 7.00 6.50 10.0
Exchange rate (end of period) 3.35 3.30 3.65 3.60
Current account (% of GDP) -1.3 -0.5 -0.3 -1.4
Public sector fiscal balance (% of GDP) -9.0 -7.8 -7.8 -5.8
Forecasts for Brazil
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 32
This report has been produced by the Latin America Unit
Head Economist, Latin AmericaJuan Manuel Ruiz
BBVA ResearchJorge Sicilia Serrano
Macroeconomic Analysis
Rafael Doménech
Digital Economy
Alejandro Neut
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios
Miguel Jiménez
Global Financial Markets
Sonsoles Castillo
Long-Term Global Modelling and Analysis
Julián Cubero
Innovation and Processes
Oscar de las Peñas
Financial Systems and Regulation
Santiago Fernández de Lis
Digital Regulation and Trends
Álvaro Martín
Regulation
Ana Rubio
Financial Systems
Olga Cerqueira
Spain and Portugal
Miguel Cardoso
United States
Nathaniel Karp
Mexico
Carlos Serrano
Turkey, China and Big Data
Álvaro Ortiz
Turkey
Álvaro Ortiz
Asia
Le Xia
South America
Juan Manuel Ruiz
Argentina
Gloria Sorensen
Colombia
Juana Téllez
Economic Outlook
Hugo Perea
Venezuela
Julio Pineda
Enestor Dos Santos
Cecilia Posadas
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Miguel Jiménez