brar-the economy and housing market - nov 3
TRANSCRIPT
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Blue Ridge Association of Realtors
November 3, 2011
The U.S. and Washington AreaEconomic Performance and Outlook
John McClain, Senior FellowCenter for Regional Analysis
School of Public PolicyGeorge Mason University
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GDP Percent Change, 1930-2010(Real Dollars)
1930
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
%
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Annual Change in Jobs – US1940 - 2010
194019441948195219561960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008
-7000
-5000
-3000
-1000
1000
3000
5000THOUSANDS
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1975-Q11982-Q31991-Q12001-Q42009-Q2
Quarters After Trough
% C
ha
ng
e in
GD
P
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Five Recessions
Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
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2007
-1 3
2008
-1 3
2009
-1 3
2010
-1 3
2011
-1 3
2012
-1 3
2013
-1 3
2014
-1-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014
% Forecast > > > > > >
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Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
MfgN-Mfg
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
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Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US
Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04M
ar-05O
ct-05M
ay-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Jan-11
-7000
-5000
-3000
-1000
1000
3000
THOUSANDS
Sep =+ 1.46 M
Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA
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20
07
20
07
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
08
20
08
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
09
20
09
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
11
20
11
20
11
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
000s
US Job ChangeMonth-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted
Sep= 103
Source: BLS
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Annual Change in Employed - U.S.
Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04M
ar-05O
ct-05M
ay-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Jan-11
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
THOUSANDS
Sep = 787
Source: BLS Household Survey, NSA
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20072008
20092010
2011
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average
405
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Feb-0
4
Feb-0
5
Feb-0
6
Feb-0
7
Feb-0
8
Feb-0
9
Feb-1
0
Feb-1
14
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Sep = 9.1
%
GI FCST11 – 9.112 – 9.213 – 8.914 – 8.115 – 7.316 – 6.8
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U.S. Housing TrendsNew & Existing Home Sales
Sep-07D
ec-07M
ar-08M
ay-08A
ug-08N
ov-08Feb-09M
ay-09A
ug-09N
ov-09Feb-10M
ay-10Jul-10O
ct-10Jan-11A
pr-11Jul-11
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Existing(left scale)
New
(Right Scale)
(000s) (000s)
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Nov-0
6
Mar
-07
Jul-0
7
Nov-0
7
Mar
-08
Jul-0
8
Nov-0
8
Mar
-09
Jul-0
9
Nov-0
9
Mar
-10
Jul-1
0
Nov-1
0
Mar
-11
Jul-1
196.0
101.0
106.0
111.0
116.0
121.0
L.I.
C.I.
U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesNov 2006 – Sep 2011
RECESSION >
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U.S. Leading Index
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
-6-4-202468
101214
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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U.S. Coincident Index
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Consumer Prices2001 - 2015
Forecast > > > > > >%
Source: BLS, Global Insight
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2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Fed 30-Yr
Interest Rates2001 - 2015
Forecast > > > > > >
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Oil Prices$ per barrel
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$/barrel
Source: Global Insight
Forecast > > > > > > > >
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Consumer Confidence
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
100
Present Situation
Expectations
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Growth in Total Consumption Outlays
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
4.7
2.5 2.7 2.83.3 3.4
2.92.3
-0.6
-1.9
2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.02.5
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Forecast > > > > >
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U.S. Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011
Information
Federal Govt.
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600
-41
-30
79
64
84
37
-13
196
120
162
561
450
-259
(000s) Total = 1,490
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Ranked by Size in 2010
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U.S. Job Change by SectorAug 2011 – Sept 2011
Information
Federal Govt.
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
34
-1
-1
-3
-6
26
-8
-13
-4
14
48
45
-33
(000s) Total = 103
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Ranked by Size in 2010
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The Washington Economy
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Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
Aug
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Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
Aug
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1991 1996 2001 2006 2011-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
000s
Annual Job Change – MOTYCWashington MSA
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
2002
2004
2006
2008
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 2010 – Sep 2011
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Philadelphia
Houston
Boston
Miam
i
Atlanta
Detroit
SF-Oakland
Minneapolis
Phoenix
Seattle
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100(000s)
Washington +8,500
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011
Washington MSA
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
1
0
-4
-2
5
-4
-5
1
-3
2
3
0
12(000s) Total = 8,500
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
2002
2004
2006
2008
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011
Northern Virginia
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
-1
0
0
-2
1
-3
1
0
1
2
0
-3
5(000s) Total + 600
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
11.0 – DC
9.1 – U.S.
6.3 – SMD6.1 – MSA4.9 - NVA
Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
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15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
September 2011
Minneapolis
Washington
Boston
Phoenix
New York
Dallas
Philadelphia
Seattle
Houston
SF-Oakland
Chicago
Atlanta
Miam
i
Los Angeles
Detroit
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14%
US 9.1
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
6.1
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
2
4
6
8
10
12
ClarkeFrederickWarrenShenandoahVAUS
Unemployment Rate – August Each YearBRAR Counties
%
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Housing Market Trends
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1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Existing Home SalesWashington MSA
Through September 2011
12-Month Moving Average
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
$315,200 Sept 2011
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Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2011, MSA
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006 july
dec
May oc
tM
arA
ug20
10 Jun
Nov Apr
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Sep = - 29%
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Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
LDNFFX
ARL
PW
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year – Metro Area
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.0
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA
All Housing Types
20002002
20042006
2008Apr
OctApr
OctApr
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
6
111414
2022
20
-16
-24-26
-20-18
-14
-10-9-7
0
-4
3
96 6
46
5 47
54
8 9
2 2 13
13 4
-1
1 2
%
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2009 2010 2011
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Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia
All Housing Types
20002002
20042006
2008Apr
OctApr
OctApr
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
5
101414
2223
1
-2
-25-28-28
-22-19
-12
-8
-2 -1
9
5
11
1519
161716
12119 9
61010
40
62
4 4 6
0
3
7
%
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2009 2010 2011
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20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Washington MSABuilding Permits
2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Blue Ridge Association of Realtors RegionMedian Sales Price – Sept Each Year$
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Blue Ridge Association of Realtors RegionSales – Sept Each Year
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Blue Ridge Association of Realtors RegionListings – Sept Each Year
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
D.C. 10.1 -2.2 9.5 3.3 5.7 8.6 9.3 9.8
Sub. MD -3.3 -25.1 -5.9 4.6 7.5 11.3 14.1 16.2
No. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 15.7 17.1 19.6 21.5 22.1
REGION 12.9 -50.3 11.3 23.6 30.3 39.5 44.9 48.1
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11
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• Debt Ceiling Resolution & Federal Budget• Housing Market
– Foreclosures– Fannie and Freddie– Home Ownership
• Corporate Earnings• Jobs
OUTLOOK - Factors
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2007
-1 3
2008
-1 3
2009
-1 3
2010
-1 3
2011
-1 3
2012
-1 3
2013
-1 3
2014
-1-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014
% Forecast > > > > > >
Source: IHS Global Insight
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CRA.GMU.EDU