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04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China? 08 What does it mean for BRI Countries? 10 Three remaining challenges: Financial Sustainability, Legal risks, Political risks

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Page 1: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?

04 Brand, Connect and Finance

05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019

06 What does it mean for China?

08 What does it mean for BRI Countries?

10 Three remaining challenges: Financial Sustainability, Legal risks, Political risks

Page 2: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?

Mahamoud Islam, Senior Economist for Asia

+852 3665 8989

[email protected]

With the support of Patrick Liao.

Page 3: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?
Page 4: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?

Sources: Various, Euler Hermes

Page 5: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?

Source: Euler Hermes Source: Euler Hermes

10

7

7

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

7

5

5

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

0 5 10 15 20

South Korea

Viet Nam

India

Singapore

Russian Federation

Malaysia

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippines

United Arab Emirates

2018

2019

21

7

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

16

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

0 10 20 30 40

South Korea

Malaysia

Viet Nam

Thailand

Russian Federation

Singapore

Saudi Arabia

Indonesia

South Africa

Philippines

2018

2019

Page 6: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?

Sources: UNCTAD, Euler Hermes

60%

42%

62%

49%

66%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Iron and Steel Coal

2010 2013 2017

Page 7: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?

Sources: Wind, Euler Hermes

Page 8: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?

Sources: China investment tracker, AIE and HF

Investment in BRI countries (USD, bn) Top 5 receivers (USD bn, 2014-2018*)

Page 9: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?
Page 10: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Total Energy Water Telecom Transport

Asia (excludeChina)

Europe

Africa

Page 11: Brand, Connect and Finance - Allianz · 2019. 1. 30. · 04 Brand, Connect and Finance 05 The Belt and Road Initiative: : +USD117bn to make in 2019 06 What does it mean for China?