11Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan

Background Report 11Retailing and the Network of Strategic Centres

September 2010

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CONTENTS 1 Introduction 12 Strategic Development Plan and Potential Drivers of Change 42.1 Existing Metropolitan Development Strategy (MDS) 42.2 Current and Future Drivers of Change 42.3 Key Themes of the SDP Planning Strategy 52.4 Recession and downturn. 62.5 Potential Growth Scenarios. 62.6 Current Economic Context 73 Retailing in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley 83.1 National Policy Guidance on Retailing and Town Centres 83.2 Recent Retail Trends 93.3 Retail Projections and Forecasts 114 Identifying the Network of Centres 144.1 The network of centres 144.2 Identification of Strategic Centres 144.3 Current Retailing Patterns in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley 154.4 Issues arising from current expenditure patterns 234.5 Future Comparison Goods Retail Capacity 234.6 Bulky Goods Retailing 264.7 Convenience Retailing 274.8 Wider Roles and Functions 274.9 Summary of Centres 284.10 Strategic Retail and Other Centres 334.11 Strategic Retail Centres 334.12 Other Strategic Centres 364.13 Issues arising from the Network of Centres 384.14 Preferred Approach: City Centre and Strategic Centre Focus 384.15 Alternate Approaches 394.16 Spatial Issues arising from the Preferred Approach 394.17 Other Town Centres 404.18 The Network of Centres 405 Consultation, Review and Monitoring 416 Conclusion 42

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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Sectoral Context Map of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley 3Figure 2 Comparison of expenditure growth estimates 12Figure 3 Shopper Population and Expenditure: Glasgow and the Clyde Valley 16Figure 4 Shopper Population and Expenditure: Local Authorities 17Figure 5 Shopper Population and Expenditure: Local Authorities 17Figure 6 Dominant Centres: Core Catchments 18Figure 7 Shoppers and expenditure: Local Authorities 19Figure 8 Imported Expenditure from outwith GCV 20Figure 9 Expenditure Flows between centres 21Figure 10 Hierarchy of Centres: core catchments 22Figure 11 Population Change 23Figure 12 Expenditure Growth 23Figure 13 Expenditure growth : low estimate 24Figure 14 Expenditure growth: mid range estimate 24Figure 15 Expenditure growth: high estimate 25Figure 16 Forecast expenditure to 2019 25Figure 17 Bulky Goods ranking from NSLSP 26Figure 18 Role and Function 30Figure 19 The Network of Strategic Centres 31Figure 20 Network of Strategic Centres: Overall Strategic Role and Function 32Figure 21 Summary of Strategic and Potential Strategic Centres and Issues 33 Appendix A National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns

Appendix B Town Centre Profiles and Maps

Appendix C Detailed Expenditure Flows

Appendix D Bulky Goods

Appendix E Convenience Goods

Appendix F Matrix Role and Function Assessment Guidance

Appendix G References

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1 Introduction This Background Report focuses upon the strategic future of town centres and retailing and the network of centres in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, as part of the Strategic Development Plan process. It will underpin the Main Issues Report and focus upon the network of centres in terms of their strategic roles and functions. This report has been prepared in the context of economic downturn and limited expenditure growth, with sustainability as the key driver of change. This provides a contrast with the historic consideration of retail and town centre policy and will lead to less ‘demand’ in terms of shopper expenditure with consequences for the ‘supply’ of floorspace. Complementary to this approach is the review of the wider role and function of centres based on non-retail land uses, which are amongst the diverse mix of uses and attributes underpinning a town centre. Finally, the role of comparison and bulky goods retailing is considered with relation to the network of centres.

In terms of assessment, the key question is ‘what is strategic’ in retail terms, within the context set by the Strategic Development Plan and other policy areas. There are no defined thresholds of strategic role and function within national policy guidance in terms of retailing. However, there is development management guidance in the form of the Hierarchy of Development Regulations (2009) which defines ‘major development’. Nevertheless, as the new Development Planning system expects the Strategic Development Plan to be a ‘concise visionary document’, the starting point is the identification of a network of centres within a strategic and spatial context which could be considered as strategic retail centres within the context of the network of centres and the wider roles and functions of town centres and commercial centres.

At the outset, it is important to define what is meant by a strategic retail centre and the strategic network of centres. In broad terms, such a centre has a significant attraction in terms of shopping population, spatial coverage and expenditure, attracting spend from other local authorities and centres, and may draw expenditure from beyond Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. It may fulfil a particular spatial role, such as in an isolated catchment. Other considerations include the vitality and viability and retail performance of a centre (such as the level of vacancies) and the accessibility of a centre by sustainable modes of transport. A strategic network of centres requires that the individual role of each centre should support and be supported by the role of other centres to provide a sustainable approach to development. To be considered a ‘town centre’, such a centre would fulfil an appropriate role and function reflecting a diverse and sustainable mix of activities and land uses, but a strategic retail centre may not necessarily be a town centre. Conversely, not all town centres are appropriate locations for strategic retail due to their scale, role and function.

However, a centre may well be of strategic significance in terms of roles and functions other than retail, and this is a fundamental principle of the approach taken in this assessment. Certain centres have been assessed as less than strategic in retail terms, but of strategic importance in terms of their wider roles and functions, and the communities they serve. So, although the network of centres is based around strategic retailing, it also includes strategic centres with wider roles and functions.

The identified strategic network of centres has been derived from analysis which has focussed upon shopper behaviour and expenditure pattern and a strategic assessment

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of wider roles and functions. This analysis is high level and comparative and has required the exercise of subjective judgement. The list of strategic centres is therefore not completely objective nor absolute.

The focus is very much on establishing this network of centres based upon comparison goods retailing, at the strategic level and in the spatial context. This follows analysis of the National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns (supplied by CB Richard Ellis and detailed at Appendix A) which allows the identification of self-forming catchments based around identified centres. Shopper behaviour and expenditure patterns have been identified, in terms of catchments, expenditure flows and the hierarchy of centres. This ‘current’ situation is complemented by a high level analysis of forecast expenditure growth compared to previous trends; that is, the ‘supply’ element of the equation in terms of future change.

This analysis is brought together in a summary matrix and map of the network of centres and identification of proposed strategic retail and other centres which should be further defined through the development plan, in terms of detailed role and function. As well as identifying the strategic network of centres, this analysis is used to identify key issues relating to strategic retail for comparison goods but also for convenience and bulky goods, and also within the spatial context. These issues and the network of centres are taken forward into three scenarios:

Preferred: Focus on City Centre and Strategic Centres. A focus on the network of strategic centres based upon strategic retail and other role and function, identifying those centres which exhibit strategic characteristics as a hierarchy with Glasgow City Centre at the top above a second tier of strategic retail and other centres, in turn above all other town centres and complemented by the network of commercial centres.

Alternative 1. Centralisation. A focus upon Glasgow City Centre as the only strategic centre of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. This may seem the most sustainable option in terms of centralisation and accessibility, but could leave gaps in the network of centres and increase travel demand, and is not preferred.

Alternative 2. Decentralisation. Identification of Glasgow City Centre and all other identified town centres and commercial centres within a looser network, taking a less restrictive view on what constitutes a ‘strategic centre’. This has the potential to undermine a hierarchy based upon strategic function and is not preferred. This has been the historic approach of the Metropolitan Development Strategy.

The preferred option of City and Strategic Centre Focus will form the basis of a strategic network of centres which fit the spatial development context of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley in the context of the sustainability agenda and the challenging economic times ahead. For the purposes of this analysis, the area of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley is broken down into four sectors and a central core, based upon approximate boundaries between core catchments for the major centres, and also local authority boundaries (Figure 1). This has been prepared using the catchments for centres derived from this analysis work, mapped by postcode sector and modified slightly to take account of other logical boundaries such as local authority areas. This allows consideration of the spatial context in a sub-regional setting.

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Figure 1 Sectoral Context Map of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley

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2 Strategic Development Plan and Potential Drivers of Change

2.1 Existing Metropolitan Development Strategy (MDS) The existing MDS is a long-term plan built around a twenty-five year perspective to 2026 and subject to five-yearly review. The MDS was the spatial articulation of the eight constituent Councils’ corporate long-term Vision, first agreed in 2003 and re-launched in 2008. Key elements of the MDS also provide the foundation for the National Planning Framework series for Scotland, which is similarly designed as a long-term framework for Scotland’s development. The inaugural SDP is therefore a successor strategic document but to be built upon the foundation of an extant MDS.

The key elements of this long term plan are:

• Clyde Waterfront - renewing and regenerating the core urban river corridor

• Clyde ‘Gateway’ - the restructuring of eastern Glasgow and parts of western South Lanarkshire

• Ravenscraig - the restructuring of the central North Lanarkshire conurbation

• Community Growth Areas (CGAs) - catering for long-term metropolitan expansion, 13 locations accommodating approximately 19,000 houses

• GCV ‘Green Network’ (and Central Scotland ‘Green Network’) - a positive action multi-objective laden economic ‘place-setting’; and, environmental recovery project

• Glasgow City Centre – the central focus of the metropolitan economy

• Glasgow International Airport – the international gateway to the west and to the metropolitan business and visitor economy.

In addition, the MDS focuses upon a wide ranging network of centres, including town centres, renewal priorities, and retail warehouse locations and shopping and leisure centres categorised as commercial centres.

2.2 Current and Future Drivers of Change It has become evident since 2006, however, that some key ‘drivers’ of development

change have increased exponentially their profile and relevance to strategic spatial planning and therefore provide a modern basis for re-evaluating the legacy of the MDS and provide the key ‘challenges’ for a future SDP spatial strategy. The following drivers of development are of particular importance to retailing strategy.

• Sustainable Economic Growth. The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy, highlights sustainable economic growth as its primary aim. At its heart lies the concept of social and environmental equity aligned to economic growth. Effectively, this equity translates into a ‘de-coupling’ of economic growth from carbon

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consumption through the development of ‘low-carbon’ economic activity, decreased carbon usage and through the growth of low-carbon energy sources for long-term growth.

• Sustainable Development. The Scottish Government, through the consolidated Scottish Planning Policy (SPP), has underpinned development plan preparation with sustainable development as a key principle. This approach is wholly consistent with their adoption of sustainable economic growth, and provides the Authority with a clear direction on the nature and shape of strategy.

• Climate Change Mitigation. The Scottish Government’s Climate Change Act, and its constituent mandatory targets for emissions reductions - 80% by 2050 and an interim 42% by 2020 - again is wholly consistent with the key principle of sustainability as the overall ‘direction of travel’ for the development plan process. It lays out a clear path to carbon minimisation and to a development strategy which requires to focus on mitigation as a statutory aim.

• Land-use and Transport Integration. Consistent with the above modern ‘drivers’ of change, the integration of land-use and transport planning assumes a salient significance as one of the primary planning ‘driver’ which articulates the other ‘drivers’ through the Development Planning System. It becomes a key structural component of the future SDP.

• Public Sector Expenditure Restraint. It is widely anticipated that the first half of the plan period to 2020 will be dominated by public sector expenditure cuts and restraint, with consequential considerations including phasing the delivery of the plan concomitant with the availability of resources as the economy recovers.

2.3 Key Themes of the SDP Planning Strategy The fundamental approach is analysis of the ‘demand’ for development and the ‘supply’ response, the latter being substantially shaped by the above ‘drivers for change’. The ‘demand’ side derives from changes in population, in economic activity and in life-style choices by the consuming population. On the ‘supply’ side, the implications of the ‘drivers’ set out above for the shape of the SDP are quite significant and dictate an approach which reinforces and intensifies the already sustainable shape of the inherited Metropolitan Development Strategy.

As the SDP will look forward to the period to 2035 and in that long-term perspective, particularly in the context of a global drive for de-carbonisation to combat climate change and a drive to de-couple economic growth from carbon-based fuels, much will change. The following land-use themes, therefore, will at least maintain or substantively increase their significance in strategic terms:-

• Sustainable connectivity for economic competitiveness;

• Agglomeration of economic growth;

• Regeneration and renewal of brownfield land and the urban fabric;

• Land-use and sustainable transport integration;

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• Environmental action for economic competitiveness

• Environmental action for de-carbonised energy

• Environmental action for emissions mitigation

• Development ‘search areas for natural resources

• ‘Local supply’ solutions for strategic issues

• Prioritisation and phasing of development

2.4 Recession and downturn. At present, the economic situation continues to be volatile. Consumer spending has been deceptively buoyant in contrast to other sectors of the economy. Retail sales volumes have evidenced positive growth for most months of the recession. Interestingly, the non-food sector appears to have outperformed the foodstore sector, in contrast to the last recession. The relatively good performance of the retail sector is attributed to labour market flexibility mitigating unemployment and price reductions. The difference between food and non-food retailing may be due to the blurring of the traditional boundary between food superstores and non-food retailers because of the sale of ancillary non-food goods in new format superstores, and also changes in relative prices.

2.5 Potential Growth Scenarios. Population projections underpin retail assumptions and forecasts. A number of alternative scenarios have been considered, in light of the uncertainty surrounding long-term economic forecasts, and given the variations in net migration in the various demographic forecasts.

Three scenarios were considered by Oxford Economics (OE):

• A re-balanced economy, where the UK and its regional governments foster a change in the balance of the metropolitan economies away from the services sector emphasis by identifying and building upon other growth areas - high-tech high value manufacturing, environmental industries and services, tourism and related leisure, film and culture sectors;

• Alternate house price assumptions, where the price differential between Scotland and the GCV area as against southern England remains in place, as is the historic norm. Whilst in theory this differential should favour in-migration to GCV, it does not necessarily bring economic growth and can also be equated with higher unemployment levels, vacant property and heightened reliance upon the social rented housing sector; and,

• Alternate migration outcomes, where net migration runs at a rate above baseline projection driven by quality of life and house price differentials. This scenario, in total demographic change terms, models very closely to the primary demographic scenario in the Authority’s HNDA, although the balance between in-migration and natural change in markedly different between the two scenarios. The OE

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economic scenario with lower natural change and higher economically driven net in-migration, whilst the HNDA scenario has an opposite balance between the two components with a much higher natural change component. However as in the House Price differential scenario above, population growth does not guarantee economic growth and this scenario has the potential to draw in population but without the economy to support it, thus throwing even greater stress on the social-rented housing sector.

The OE baseline scenario remains the most likely economic forecast for the first half of the plan period as it is widely anticipated that it will be up to or beyond a decade before economic and associated employment growth returns to pre-2008 levels. This should be considered alongside projections and forecasts of expenditure growth, which are covered later in this paper.

Further details are available in the Housing and Economy technical papers.

2.6 Current Economic Context Following a change of government, the Chancellor’s budget of June 2010 sets the political and economic context for the next few years. The overriding issue is reduction in the structural deficit, through a combination of spending reductions and taxation increases, approximately 70% of the former and 30% of the latter. The main issue for retailing is likely to be the increase in VAT to 20%, which will take effect on 1 January 2011. The range of goods subject to VAT will not be extended, so the impact will be on those goods currently subject to VAT. In recent years, competition has kept the cost of goods down (including the restoration of the 17.5% VAT rate, absorbed by some retailers), and this could offset part of this impact in terms of price increases, but it is debatable how realistic this prospect is, given the fact this is a second VAT increase; also the relative weakness of the pound sterling and the increasing cost of imports. Recent figures released by ONS show an increase in the price of clothing and footwear over the last year. So, it is likely that prices will increase and expenditure will be squeezed.

The general context of wage restraint in both the public and private sectors will reinforce any pressure on expenditure from price increases. Few employers are likely to offer general pay increases, and a two year pay freeze has been announced for the public sector.

Also, both consumer price index and retail price index measures of inflation have been increasing, to 3.4% and 5.1% respectively. This will squeeze disposable income even further as the costs of travelling to work rise, for example. Any consequential increase in interest rates will have a further impact.

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3 Retailing in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley In Scotland, retailing contributes some 29% of expenditure-based GDP and annual growth has outstripped other sectors of the economy. The retail industry employs over 235,000 persons, some 10% of the workforce, constituting one in eight businesses. The retail turnover of £24bn is 11% of total Scottish turnover.1

The city centre of Glasgow has a turnover of £2.4bn per annum with over 1,500 shops, and 10% of the Glasgow workforce are employed in retailing. Glasgow has been ranked 2

nd and 3rd in recent UK rankings (behind London and vying with Birmingham) and 17th in European rankings as a retail destination, the only UK city other than London in the European top 20. 2

3.1 National Policy Guidance on Retailing and Town Centres

The particular role of Glasgow within the Clyde Valley and central and west Scotland is obvious from these rankings, but other centres are also major drivers of the economy and employment. As well as providing a major economic and employment contribution, retail is at the heart of vital and viable town centres.

Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) includes the section entitled Town Centres and Retailing (paragraphs 52 to 65). Retail and leisure uses are fundamental to the concentration of other activities located in town centres, which are a key element of the economic and social fabric of Scotland as centres of employment and services for local communities and a focus for civic activity, making a contribution to sustainable economic growth. The key issues are safeguarding and promotion of town centres as part of an identified network of centres, the context of development, accessibility of development, the sequential approach and retail impact. Development plans should identify a network of centres, including town centres, commercial centres and other local centres, which may take the form of a hierarchy. The principles which underpin the role of a successful town centre are:

• Centre of employment and services • Focus for civic activity • Focus for uses including: Retail, Leisure, Entertainment, Recreation, Cultural,

Community, Homes and Businesses. • Diverse mix of uses and attributes • High level of accessibility • Character • Identity • Sense of Place • Range and quality of shopping • Wider economic and social activity in day and evening • Integration with residential areas • Quality of environment • Not simply retail-led and homogenous

Commercial centres are distinct from town centres, with a different range of uses, physical structure, character and sense of place. There is a more specific focus on retailing or retail and leisure.

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The network of centres should provide a context for assessing new development proposals. In particular, this relates to the identified role and function of centres and the identification of gaps and deficiencies, and opportunities for accommodation of development in the development plan. All retail, leisure and related developments should be accessible (and perceived as accessible) by walking, cycling and public transport; town and commercial centres should be accessible at all times to all sectors of the community. The central consideration is the sequential approach to development locations, which are considered in order of town centre, edge of town centre, other commercial centre and accessible out of centre locations (where more central options have been discounted and the scale of development is appropriate). The development plan can identify exceptions. In addition to the sequential approach, consideration of impact on the vitality and viability of other centres is required (through retail impact assessment) for development outwith town centres or contrary to the development plan. For development contrary to the development plan, the sequential approach must be followed and the proposal must help to meet qualitative and quantitative deficiencies and not conflict with other significant objectives of the development plan or other relevant strategies.

3.2 Recent Retail Trends National retail policy guidance is focussed upon the role and function of town centres and other centres in meeting retail demand, and the Development Plan is required to identify a network of such centres, safeguarding and promoting town centres.

Retail and Centres

Retail is usually the central function of such a centre, with other land uses which combine to create a vital and viable town centre, but the general trend of a growth in out-of-centre retailing has arguably led to unsustainable car-based comparison goods shopping as well as impacting upon the vitality and viability of existing town centres, particularly strategic centres. This pattern of shopping is not sustainable, but it must be recognised that this phenomenon is established and look to mitigation measures which will focus and restrict growth to the most appropriate centres, in particular those which are accessible or can be made accessible.

In Glasgow, for example (as shown in Figure 2) overall comparison goods floorspace has increased by some 18% (some 150,000 sqm gross) between 2003 and 2008. However, the City Centre has seen a slight decline and most of this increase has been on other centres (57% growth or 108,000 sqm gross; 72% of the new floorspace) and out of city centre (18% or 43,000 sqm gross; 28% of the new floorspace), notably at Silverburn and Fort. Nevertheless, this trend is recognised and development to 2013 is focussed on the City Centre, with nearly half of new floorspace destined for proposals in this location.3

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Figure 2 Floorspace Development in Glasgow

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2003 2008 2013

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The wider regeneration objectives are established in the Metropolitan Development Strategy and future retailing should follow this strategy. In particular, Ravenscraig will deliver significant non-food shopping floorspace, but this will have some form of impact upon the centres in the east of the Clyde Valley, mainly Motherwell and Wishaw. Clyde Waterfront and Community Growth Areas are also established elements of the Metropolitan Development Strategy, and strategic retail policy should follow this established strategy.

For those centres not seen as strategic retail centres, diversification or extension of town centre uses may offer scope for enhancing vitality and viability. Also, they may fulfil a different strategic role and function. So, the SDP must consider the wider roles and functions of town centres and other centres, in addition to retailing.

Wider Retail Trends

Over recent years and decades, expenditure has grown markedly for the comparison goods market in particular, as the economy has grown. Fashion goods and hi-tech electronic goods have been in particular demand. This has been mirrored by the growth of discounted goods and inexpensive imports, particularly through the integration of comparison fashion and household goods into superstores.

Internet shopping has increased rapidly, both for comparison goods (with an increased range of choice available) and for convenience goods, notably weekly shopping. This has a particular impact on books and music retailing, and also includes the re-sale and auction of goods.

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The growth in demand has led to a significant expansion in retail floorspace, particularly in new locations in mall-style formats accessible to the road network, usually with free parking for customers. In part, this is due to retailers requiring new higher-quality formats and larger units to attract customers, and also because of the scope for investment in (and return from) such ventures. However, such car-served locations tend to be less accessible by sustainable modes of travel (and the perception of convenience leads to the car being the preferred modal choice) and with a less diverse range of uses, roles and functions than traditional centres.

The growth in new shopping locales and higher quality formats has been mirrored by a decline in traditional town centres on established bus and rail networks, which cannot compete in terms of quality, format and parking provision. In these locations, the range of other uses (leisure, recreation, cultural, service) is usually greater, albeit undermined by decline in vitality and viability arising from the retail impact of competing locations.

Food superstores have changed in format and distribution. The competition for market share is increasingly intense, and the ‘big five’ retailers (now including the Co-operative Group following the Somerfield acquisition) have adopted larger and smaller store formats, including hypermarkets approaching 10,000sqm with extensive comparison goods ranges, and smaller format neighbourhood stores in local towns and on petrol forecourts.

Retail has proven to be more resilient to the downturn than other sectors and industries. Manufacturing output slumped by some 14% between 2008 and 2009, whereas at the same time the volume of retail sales increased by 1.5%. However, some of this may be due to competition driving down costs in the sector. In past recessions, the retail sector has tracked the manufacturing sector and spending has also followed GDP growth, so the effects of the recession and fiscal policy may be yet to appear.

However, household debt levels and employment insecurity have led to a squeeze on spending. To an extent, the market has absorbed this impact because of competition between retailers and reduced margins, and sales volumes have remained buoyant. Nevertheless, the protracted nature of the downturn and the focus on national debt and deficit reduction will lead to tax increases (such as the VAT increase) and public spending cuts, putting further pressure on household budgets which may well be exacerbated by inflationary pressures and further increases in the cost of essential goods and services. As a consequence, recent expenditure growth trends (for comparison goods) will not be sustained and are unlikely to return until the end of the decade.

3.3 Retail Projections and Forecasts Retail projections and forecasts are contained within the Retail Expenditure Guide 2009/2010, published by Pitney Bowes MapInfo. Trend based projections are simply continuations of past trends, whereas forecasts take into account wider economic factors. Trend projections tend to be more stable for longer term estimates of expenditure growth.

Two estimates have been considered in terms of expenditure growth.

• Optimistic: Trend based projection estimate of 3.9%.4

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• Pessimistic: Forecast based estimate of 0.8% between 2008 and 2014, followed by 2% to 20195

Both of these compare unfavourably to the average annual growth rate over the period 1988 to 2008, which was 5.5%. The previous Structure Plan Technical Report 7/06 employed a growth rate of 5.15% over 7 years, extrapolated to 2019 in

.

Figure 3.

This is of considerable significance, because in recent decades the growth in demand has been fuelled by expenditure growth rather than population growth. So, even in areas with limited population increase, there has still been an increase in demand. This is normally in contrast to convenience goods expenditure, which follows the profile of population change (10% expenditure growth over 10 years in Technical Report 7/06, or 1% per annum). However, under the current economic climate it is likely that expenditure growth will follow a flatter curve profile, more akin to that of convenience goods.

The trends and projections are shown in Figure 3 as a graph to provide a comparative illustration.

Figure 3 Comparison of expenditure growth estimates

Forecast 07-14 & 14-19

Ultra Long Term 68-08

Medium Term 88-08

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The uncertain times at present make it difficult to set a particular forecast or projection growth rate. With the publication of the 2010/2011 expenditure report anticipated in September 2010, it should be possible to look at this issue with greater clarity and certainty than at present. At this stage, it is proposed to use an average of the forecast and ultra long term trend rates pending publication of the next report, and if there is continued uncertainty. This is reinforced by Oxford Economics forecasts underpinning

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other areas of technical analysis in support of the Strategic Development Plan, which support consideration of lower growth forecasts alongside the more reliable trend-based projections.

The issue of per capita expenditure growth is one part of the supply equation. Population growth provides the other dynamic for expenditure growth. As stated, the Strategic Development Plan is focussing on two population growth scenarios. This is further considered in terms of future expenditure in later sections.

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4 Identifying the Network of Centres

4.1 The network of centres The critical issue is the identification of a network of centres. It is assumed that the network identified within the Strategic Development Plan will be a strategic network, with consideration given to retailing and other roles and functions, and that this will underpin the assessment of whether a centre fulfils a strategic function. The strategic network of centres will potentially contain town centres, commercial centres and other centres, and may take the form of a hierarchy.

In terms of the criteria for a strategic retail centre, it would be expected that such a centre would form a sizeable core catchment and a secondary catchment, serving a substantial shopper population and attracting significant expenditure. A strategic centre would exhibit local dominance, retain a certain level of expenditure, and attract spend from other centres and local authority areas. Good accessibility and ease of access to catchment population would be expected, also a range of other town centre uses including community and leisure, cultural heritage and civic function; albeit, with the caveat that the network may also include commercial centres with a more specific focus on retailing/ leisure uses. The future role and function of a centre, and other key drivers of change, should also be considered, including forecast expenditure growth and committed floorspace.

A strategic retail centre should be the most appropriate location for strategic floorspace proposals consistent with its role and function. Such strategic proposals should be identified in accordance with the Local Development Plan and national policy guidance and assessed appropriately through the development management process. It would be expected that a strategic proposal for a non-strategic retail centre would be justified through the demonstration of quantitative and qualitative deficiency.

Other centres which do not exhibit strategic retail characteristics can be considered as strategic in terms of their wider roles and functions and spatial context. These are considered at a high level for further analysis during the plan preparation process.

4.2 Identification of Strategic Centres All the centres from the Metropolitan Development Strategy have been considered, using NSLSP data for quantitative analysis. As strategic retail is the focus for this Technical Paper, the centres have been assessed using comparison (non food) goods data.

Complementary to the quantitative analysis, consideration has been given to a high level assessment of their wider roles and functions.

The following criteria have been employed at this stage:

• Core catchments. It is expected that a strategic centre would have enough of a critical mass to form a core catchment in the first instance. Also, a shopper population (and level of expenditure) towards the higher end of the range for the core catchment would be expected.

• Expenditure flows. Centres which retain significant expenditure and which attract significant expenditure from other centres are most likely to be considered strategic.

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• Dominance. A strategic centre is likely to be dominant in competing catchment areas.

• Hierarchy. Centres with other subordinate centres (see expenditure flows).

• Centres which have a significant spatial retail function, ie serving an isolated catchment, may be considered strategic even in the absence of other factors.

• Cross-boundary catchment. Centres which draw expenditure from other local authority areas should be considered potentially strategic.

• Retail floorspace. The total floorspace may indicate the strategic role of a centre although this should be considered alongside the quality of the retail offer if turnover is being considered.

• Other town centre floorspace. A range of other town centre uses, roles and functions may underpin the strategic retail nature of a centre or provide justification for consideration as a strategic centre on these grounds alone. At this stage, convenience, service and leisure floorspace is considered.

• Vitality and Viability. This is represented at this stage by the vacancy level for all floorspace, where this is known.

• Development potential. Vacant and derelict land is aggregated and centres are ranked by area in hectares. At this stage, this is a coarse measure which does not consider site numbers and size. Further work will follow associated with the assessment of wider role and function and related to the town centre profiles.

• Accessibility. Accessibility by modes other than private car should support strategic retail centres. Supporting analysis in this case focuses upon Strathclyde Partnership for Transport accessibility analysis by centre. Further work is required to ascertain the accessibility of centres to their catchments.

• Wider role and function. The 2004 Research Study on the Effectiveness of NPPG8: Town Centres and Retailing6

• Future capacity. Driven by population and expenditure growth, considering committed floorspace, future capacity will vary geographically and may determine the future strategic role of a centre. At this stage, a high level summary is presented in terms of potential expenditure growth for the entire GCV area, although a fuller retail capacity assessment is intended.

highlighted various implications from the definition of centres, their use mix and status, including ‘must have’ credentials (paragraph 3.70). This principle is considered in terms of housing, employment and business, leisure, cultural and heritage, and community and civic roles and functions.

Some of these criteria are assessed objectively and ranked from 1 (least) to 5 (most) and others are assessed subjectively. This is summarised towards the end of this chapter.

4.3 Current Retailing Patterns in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley The wider picture of comparison goods retail patterns in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley should be considered before looking in detail at the network of centres. NSLSP data provides the basis for this exercise, for the year 2008. Further details of NSLSP are provided in Appendix A but, in essence, the survey is at the postcode sector level based on penetration rate by centre. One postcode sector can serve a number of centres. Catchments are therefore self-forming and form a core

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catchment (70%) and a full catchment (100%). For this analysis, the same principle is applied to the aggregated core and full catchments for the entire Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area. This is shown below in Figure 4 and following paragraphs.

Figure 4 Shopper Population and Expenditure (NSLSP) Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Full

Pop Full £m

Core Pop

Core £m

Shoppers and Expenditure Baseline (1) 1.67m £4,813m 1.15m £3,315m Expenditure Originating in GCV (2) 1.74m £4,598m 1.29m £3,647m

Expenditure Retained within GCV (3) 1.46m £4,174m 1.09m £3,126m Expenditure Imported to GCV (4) 211,520 £640m 59,831 £190m

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley total shopping population (Figure 4(1)) is some 1.67 million within the full catchment and 1.15 million within the core catchment. Expenditure is some £4,813m for the full catchment and £3,315m for the core catchment. This is for shoppers and expenditure destined for centres within Glasgow and the Clyde Valley.

These catchments extend beyond Glasgow and the Clyde Valley and also do not account for leakage. So, expenditure originating within Glasgow and the Clyde Valley can be considered (Figure 4(2) in terms of those postcode sectors lying within the study area regardless of expenditure destination. In this case, the shopping population is £1.74 million for the full catchment and £1.29 million for the core catchment. Expenditure is £4,598m for the full catchment and £3,647m from the core catchment.

Retained expenditure can also be considered (Figure 4(3) in terms of expenditure which originates within Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, and which is also spent within Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. In terms of shopping population, this is some 1.46m shoppers for the full catchment, and 1.09m shoppers for the core catchment. For expenditure, this is some £4,174m for the full catchment and £3,126m for the core catchment.

Leakage can be calculated by subtracting retained expenditure from expenditure originating in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. This is equivalent to approximately 16%, depending upon which measure is applied.

Leakage is balanced by imported expenditure (Figure 4(4). For the full catchment, this is some 211,520 shoppers and £640m expenditure, resulting in a net leakage of approximately 4%. For the core catchment this is 136,924 shoppers and £332m, approximately 10%.

Current Retailing Patterns by Local Authority The NSLSP data can also be aggregated by local authority, as in figure 4 below. Once again, this can be considered in terms of originating expenditure, retained expenditure and imported spend and this is illustrated in figure 5. However, there is no requirement to consider leakage in detail at this stage at local authority level, as this bears more relation to the flow of expenditure between centres and catchments which is considered later on. Nevertheless, it can be seen that most local authorities lose expenditure to centres in other local authority areas, in particular Glasgow which accounts for nearly all expenditure leaving a local authority area. Inverclyde, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire appear to lose no net expenditure, likely to

17

be due to the relative self-containment of Inverclyde and the attraction of centres such as Braehead (in particular) and Clydebank.

Figure 5 Shopper Population and Expenditure: Local Authorities (NSLSP)

Local Authority Full Catchment Core Catchment Pop Spend Pop Spend

City of Glasgow 1.09m £2,896m 704,933 £2,030m East Dunbartonshire 8,185 £27m 5,267 £17m

East Renfrewshire 5,697 £21m 3,779 £14m Inverclyde 55,008 £150m 35,796 £94m

North Lanarkshire 86,740 £243m 54,375 £148m Renfrewshire 217,583 £636m 150,834 £438m

South Lanarkshire 214,596 £645m 147,224 £447m West Dunbartonshire 71,390 £195m 48,626 £126m

TOTAL 1.67m £4,813m 1.15m £3,315m

Figure 6 Shopper Population and Expenditure: Local Authorities (NSLSP)

0

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NSLSP Spend Originating LA Retained GCV/LA Leaked LA Imported to GCV/LA

Current Retailing Patterns by Catchment

Most significant in terms of the network of centres is the role of the identified NSLSP centres and their full and core catchments.

The NSLSP data (see Appendix A) is provided by postcode sector, aggregated into catchments for each centre. However, each postcode sector is associated with responses for more than one centre, as shoppers usually patronise a number of different destinations. This means that precisely delineated catchments do not exist as the catchments will overlap. The extent of shopper patronage of a particular centre within a postcode sector is referred to as the degree of penetration.

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However, one centre will often draw a dominant share of expenditure from a postcode sector. Such a centre is considered to be a dominant centre, and the postcode sectors in which a centre is dominant can be aggregated to form a map of dominant centres. Figure 7 illustrates dominance (by core catchment) for postcode sectors within Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area. This provides a further indication of the potential strategic function of a centre.

Centres with dominant core catchments are: Glasgow City Centre Braehead Clydebank

Cumbernauld Easterhouse/Fort East Kilbride

Greenock Hamilton Lanark

Motherwell Paisley Parkhead Forge

Wishaw

These centres could potentially be considered as fulfilling a strategic function, in addition to the magnitude of expenditure and shopper population.

Figure 7 Dominant Centres: Core Catchments (NSLSP)

Centres are ranked expenditure in Figure 8, listed in descending order of shopper population and expenditure. There are some 19 centres with core catchment population in excess of 2,000 shoppers, which provides some indication of strategic role and function.

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Figure 8 Shoppers and Expenditure: Centre Ranking (NSLSP) Location Local Authority Full Catchment Core Catchment

Shoppers £ Shoppers £ GLASGOW CENTRAL City of Glasgow 903,857 £2,616.3m 633,669 £1,841.3m BRAEHEAD Renfrewshire 173,987 £512.8m 121,264 £357.9m EAST KILBRIDE South Lanarkshire 130,036 £399.2m 90,031 £282.0m HAMILTON South Lanarkshire 73,072 £211.7m 50,218 £145.1m CLYDEBANK West Dunbartonshire 62,774 £169.0m 43,290 £110.9m GREENOCK Inverclyde 54,090 £147.4m 35,379 £92.5m PAISLEY Renfrewshire 37,790 £105.7m 25,713 £68.9m POLLOK* City of Glasgow 36,578 £107.2m 25,139 £75.3m MOTHERWELL North Lanarkshire 32,832 £91.4m 21,280 £58.2m EASTERHOUSE* Glasgow 32,455 £86.4m 22,239 £59.1m PARKHEAD* City of Glasgow 29,423 £69.2m 20,343 £44.8m CUMBERNAULD North Lanarkshire 18,426 £54.8m 11,776 £34.4m COATBRIDGE North Lanarkshire 17,264 £46.3m 11,597 £30.0m AIRDRIE North Lanarkshire 8,928 £24.9m 4,807 £12.6m WISHAW North Lanarkshire 8,527 £23.6m 4,533 £11.9m LANARK South Lanarkshire 7,664 £23.2m 5,133 £15.4m DUMBARTON West Dunbartonshire 7,608 £22.8m 4,848 £13.7m AVENUE AT MEARNS East Renfrewshire 5,073 £19.4m 3,398 £13.4m KIRKINTILLOCH East Dunbartonshire 3,991 £12.5m 2,602 £7.9m LINWOOD** Renfrewshire 2,603 £7.4m 1,798 £5.2m MILNGAVIE East Dunbartonshire 1,914 £7.0m 1,238 £4.4m RENFREW Renfrewshire 1,871 £5.5m 1,308 £3.9m RUTHERGLEN South Lanarkshire 1,550 £4.1m 1,033 £2.6m JOHNSTONE Renfrewshire 1,269 £3.9m 752 £2.4m BISHOPBRIGGS East Dunbartonshire 1,169 £3.5m 699 £2.1m BEARSDEN East Dunbartonshire 1,111 £4.1m 729 £2.9m GOVAN City of Glasgow 1,064 £2.6m 671 £1.5m SHAWLANDS City of Glasgow 981 £3.3m 645 £2.2m PORT GLASGOW Inverclyde 918 £2.3m 417 £1.1m ROBROYSTON Glasgow 909 £2.2m 467 £1.1m PARTICK City of Glasgow 822 £2.2m 466 £1.3m TORYGLEN Glasgow 757 £1.8m 425 £1.1m BLANTYRE South Lanarkshire 755 £2.1m 518 £1.4m ALEXANDRIA West Dunbartonshire 754 £2.1m 488 £1.3m BARRHEAD East Renfrewshire 624 £1.5m 380 £1.0m BELLSHILL North Lanarkshire 579 £1.5m 262 £0.6m CARLUKE South Lanarkshire 531 £1.7m £0.2m FARADAY*** North Lanarkshire 483 £1.3m 292 £0.8m SPRINGBURN City of Glasgow 410 £0.8m 191 £0.4m MARYHILL City of Glasgow 363 £1.0m 228 £0.6m DARNLEY City of Glasgow 322 £0.8m 100 £0.2m DRUMCHAPEL City of Glasgow 303 £0.7m 182 £0.4m STRATHAVEN South Lanarkshire 275 £0.9m 149 £0.5m BALLOCH West Dunbartonshire 254 £0.2m BIGGAR South Lanarkshire 237 £0.7m LARKHALL South Lanarkshire 199 £0.5m 73 £0.2m KILSYTH North Lanarkshire 184 £0.5m 120 £0.3m CASTLEMILK City of Glasgow 163 £0.3m 82 £0.2m SHETTLESTON City of Glasgow 162 £0.3m 87 £0.2m CAMBUSLANG South Lanarkshire 143 £0.4m 68 BAILLIESTON City of Glasgow 116 £0.2m CLARKSTON Glasgow 107 £0.4m UDDINGSTON** South Lanarkshire 87 £0.3m ANNIESLAND City of Glasgow 79 £0.3m ERSKINE Renfrewshire 63 £0.2m HILLINGTON Glasgow 49 £0.1m KINGSGATE RP South Lanarkshire 48 £0.1m TOTAL 1,668,393 £4,813 1,151,127 £3,315

* Includes Silverburn, Fort and Forge separately in NSLSP ** Phoenix Retail Park *** Within Coatbridge town centre **** Overlap with Birkenshaw Retail Park

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The next consideration is the extent of expenditure imported from beyond Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. This also provides an indication of strategic function, and is shown below in Figure 9.

Figure 9 Imported Expenditure from outwith GCV (NSLSP) Centre Full Catchment Core Catchment Shoppers Spend Shoppers Spend Glasgow 151,420 £457m 43,128 £135m Braehead 20,087 £62m 7,150 £23m Greenock 13,152 £38m 1,093 £4m Clydebank 11,048 £36m 6,379 £21m East Kilbride 6,025 £17m 0 0 Dumbarton 3,309 £11m 1,600 £5m Pollok Silverburn 3,102 £9m 237 £1m Paisley 1,056 £3m 0 0 Cumbernauld 784 £2m 0 0 Easterhouse Fort 183 £1m 0 0 Parkhead Forge 179 0 0 0 Motherwell 114 0 0 0 Hamilton 44 0 0 0

The main centres importing spend are Glasgow City Centre, Braehead and Clydebank (which imports expenditure from Argyll and Bute in particular). Greenock and East Kilbride import significant expenditure but less so from the core catchment.

The general pattern of expenditure flows between core catchment centres can also be considered, and this is shown at Figure 10. Each centre is listed on the matrix in rows and columns. The percentage expenditure retained can be found at the intersection between centres in the matrix and is shown in bold. The percentage expenditure migrating to other centres is shown along the rows, and by scrutinising the columns, an estimate of the magnitude of expenditure attracted by centres from other centres can be formed.

This pattern of expenditure flows is for the current position as detailed within NSLSP. It will in all likelihood change as the dynamics of the retail environment change, and assumptions can be drawn about prospective changes, for example if floorspace was restricted in one location and promoted in another. This will need consideration in terms of the function of the network of strategic retail centres, and the most appropriate locations for strategic development.

Figure 11 demonstrates which centres are subordinate to other centres, in terms of a hierarchy. It also shows the cross-boundary attraction of centres, which draw spend from other local authorities. In part, this is derived from expenditure flows but also from spatial coverage.

Appendix C contains fuller details of expenditure flows between all centres.

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Figure 10 Expenditure Flows between Centres and Core Catchments (NSLSP) Expenditure Flows Core Catchment

AIR

DR

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AIRDRIE 18% 1% 5% 1% 5% 4% 44% 2% 1% 82%

BRAEHEAD 30% 3% 1% 34% 4% 9% 3% 84%

CLYDEBANK 8% 35% 4% 36% 84%

COATBRIDGE 1% 26% 4% 4% 45% 2% 1% 1% 84%

CUMBERNAULD 27% 1% 1% 48% 1% 76%

DUMBARTON 12% 26% 13% 34% 85%

EAST KILBRIDE 1% 43% 1% 29% 10% 1% 1% 87%

EASTERHOUSE FORT 3% 1% 5% 1% 4% 10% 48% 2% 3% 5% 83%

GLASGOW CENTRAL 1% 6% 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 54% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 80%

GREENOCK 10% 1% 19% 54% 85%

HAMILTON 16% 1% 28% 36% 2% 2% 2% 87%

KIRKINTILLOCH 4% 1% 1% 2% 68% 10% 87%

LANARK 4% 1% 25% 13% 21% 4% 1% 69%

MOTHERWELL 8% 3% 31% 13% 28% 1% 2% 86%

NEWTON MEARNS 6% 15% 47% 11% 10% 88%

PAISLEY 33% 22% 26% 3% 85%

PARKHEAD FORGE 1% 9% 51% 16% 79%

POLLOK SILVERBURN 10% 6% 49% 2% 14% 81%

WISHAW 7% 1% 29% 15% 14% 17% 85%

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Figure 11 Hierarchy of Centres: Core Catchments (NSLSP) Inverclyde W

Dunbartonshire Renfrewshire Glasgow E Renfrewshire E Dunbartonshire S

Lanarkshire N Lanarkshire

GREENOCK Port Glasgow CLYDEBANK Dumbarton Drumchapel DUMBARTON Alexandria BRAEHEAD

Port Glasgow

Erskine Johnstone Linwood

Paisley Renfrew

Anniesland Drumchapel

Govan Paisley Rd W

Barrhead

Bearsden Milngavie

PAISLEY Johnstone Linwood GLASGOW CITY CENTRE

Clydebank Dumbarton

Braehead

Anniesland Baillieston Byres Road Castlemilk Drumchapel Duke Street Easterhouse Govan Maryhill

Paisley RW Partick Pollok Possil Shawlands Shettleston Springburn Victoria Road

Clarkston Giffnock Newton Mearns

Bearsden Bishopbriggs Kirkintilloch Milngavie

Cambuslang Rutherglen

Airdrie Bellshill Coatbridge Cumbernauld Kilsyth

POLLOK SILVERBURN

Shawlands

Clarkston Giffnock Newton Mearns

PARKHEAD FORGE

Baillieston Duke Street

Easterhouse Shettleston

EASTERHOUSE FORT

Baillieston Possil

Bishopbriggs

Cambuslang

Airdrie Bellshill Coatbridge

EAST KILBRIDE

Clarkston Newton Mearns

Bellshill Cambuslang Strathaven

HAMILTON

Bellshill Carluke Lanark Larkhall

MOTHERWELL Wishaw

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4.4 Issues arising from current expenditure patterns Glasgow is clearly the dominant centre, also dominating the north of the study area in particular. However, Braehead exhibits a dominance which challenges Glasgow in the west and which overwhelms Paisley and, as a commercial centre, it is accorded less sequential priority than town centres. Some centres are relatively self-contained, such as Greenock, whereas others retain little spend, such as Kirkintilloch. Dominant centres can be identified in many areas, including outlying areas, but the role of centres in the east of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley are unclear, particularly Airdrie and Coatbridge. Motherwell will also be heavily influenced by the future Ravenscraig development and this area requires focussed consideration. Leakage is not a seen to be a particular factor other than in the east, notably Lanark and Cumbernauld.

4.5 Future Comparison Goods Retail Capacity NSLSP data has been used to provide an estimate of retail capacity based upon total population within local authority areas and shopping population related to centres. This assumes that expenditure flows between catchments and centres remains constant.

Firstly, two population projections have been used, low growth (Scenario A) and high growth (Scenario C) as employed in other SDP projections and forecasts. This is over the period 2010 to 2019.

Figure 12 Population Change7

Scenario A Scenario C

Population 2010 1,759,706 1,761,145 Population 2014 1,766,803 1,774,557 Population 2019 1,774,034 1,794,140 Population Change 2014 7,097 13,412 Population Change 2019 14,328 32,995

Expenditure growth (from Figure 3) is taken forward, employing the identified average of the ultra-long term trend and the forecast expenditure growth rates. Figure 13 Expenditure Growth8

Trend Forecast Average

Expenditure Growth to 2014 3.90% 0.80% 2.35% Expenditure Growth to 2019 3.90% 0.80% 2.95% Scenario A Expenditure 2014 £952m £186m £545m Scenario C Expenditure 2014 £976m £206m £566m Scenario A Expenditure 2019 £2,365m £762m £1,496m Scenario C Expenditure 2019 £2,451m £824m £1,568m

The difference between the population scenarios is marked, and even more pronounced is the difference between the expenditure growth scenarios, as seen earlier in Figure 3. When brought together to calculate theoretical future available expenditure, the difference is even greater, a difference of £790m in 2014 and £1,689m in 2019. This highlights the difficulty in using population and expenditure forecasts and estimates in the current economic climate. This can be mapped, and is shown by postcode sector in Figure 14, Figure 15 and Figure 16, based upon potential combinations of scenarios (low-low, mid-range and high-high) using the population growth and average expenditure growth forecasts.

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Figure 14 Expenditure growth: low estimate (from Figure 12 and Figure 13)

Figure 15 Expenditure growth: mid range (from Figure 12 and Figure 13)

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Figure 16 Expenditure growth: high estimate (from Figure 12 and Figure 13)

A sectoral breakdown is at Figure 16, illustrating the spatial pattern of forecast expenditure based upon the combination of scenarios shown at Figures 11 and 12, and in the maps above. The greatest share is in the centre, the least in the northwest and similar pattern of around 15% to 17% in the other sectors. However, this does not consider base year turnover or committed floorspace. Figure 17 Forecast expenditure to 2019 (from the above three Figures)

Sector Low High % North West Sector 41 132 5% West Sector 114 366 15% Centre Sector 351 1,131 46% South Sector 126 404 16% East Sector 130 419 17% Total 762 2451 100%

Committed Floorspace Committed floorspace will require consideration, both in terms of major allocations (Glasgow Buchanan Galleries, Glasgow Waterfront and the future Ravenscraig development) and aggregated smaller scale developments. This may absorb much forecast expenditure. Issues arising from Future Retail Capacity It is clear that expenditure growth is difficult to project or forecast with the certainty of previous years, given the current economic climate. However, it is clear that expenditure growth will be linked to population change to a greater degree than in past years. From the mapping above, this will be focussed in certain areas, notably the south and the east, less so in the north and the west. This may favour a focus on certain centres in areas of population growth, given the lessened prospect of general expenditure growth across the board. However, much of this expenditure growth may be absorbed by committed floorspace, and it requires a more detailed retail

26

capacity assessment to consider indicative floorspace ranges in terms of strategic retail centres and the wider network.

4.6 Bulky Goods Retailing The context of bulky goods retailing with regard to the role and function of the strategic network of centres must also be considered. Bulky goods retailing is often focussed in out-of-centre locations or in commercial centres, but still fulfils a town centre role as well and is important to the roles and functions of both town centres and commercial centres. Further details are in Appendix D.

Figure 17 lists the bulky goods rankings from NSLSP, listed in order of full catchment shopper population. Glasgow City Centre is at the top of the list with over 300,000 shoppers, and the town centres of East Kilbride, Hamilton, Paisely, Clydebank and Greenock also feature. The Forge Retail and Shopping Park at Parkhead serves the third largest catchment (100,000 shoppers), and the commercial centre of Braehead serves the second largest catchment (200,000 shoppers).

Figure 18 Centre Ranking by Bulky Goods (NSLSP)

Location/Centre Local Authority

Town Centre or Commercial

Centre Shopping

Population Catchment Population

GLASGOW CENTRAL City of Glasgow TC 395,504 3,038,098 BRAEHEAD RP Renfrewshire CC 205,715 1,989,413 FORGE RP (PARKHEAD) City of Glasgow TC 101,020 1,178,916 EAST KILBRIDE South Lanarkshire TC 85,480 813,168 HAMILTON South Lanarkshire TC 72,870 461,485 PAISLEY Renfrewshire TC 50,408 489,188 KINGSGATE RP South Lanarkshire CC 49,416 393,963 GREENOCK Inverclyde TC 48,163 141,346 CLYDEBANK West

TC 47,024 442,320

GREAT WESTERN RP City of Glasgow CC 46,373 478,797 BIRKENSHAW RP* South Lanarkshire CC 37,502 647,457 BISHOPBRIGGS East

TC 37,442 319,221

COATBRIDGE North Lanarkshire TC 33,106 423,651 STRATHKELVIN RP East

CC 29,812 220,170

UDDINGSTON* South Lanarkshire CC 29,533 602,162 DRUMCHAPEL City of Glasgow TC 26,909 346,690 CUMBERNAULD North Lanarkshire TC 21,913 166,223 AULDHOUSE RP City of Glasgow CC 21,776 286,135 FORT RP (EASTERHOUSE) Glasgow TC 16,573 670,218 ABBOTSINCH RP Renfrewshire CC 16,551 344,439 FARADAY RP Lanarkshire TC 16,147 166,574 MOTHERWELL North Lanarkshire TC 15,224 286,696 DARNLEY City of Glasgow CC 14,772 279,339 RENFREW Renfrewshire CC 13,235 427,528 DUMBARTON West

TC 12,975 107,737

WISHAW North Lanarkshire TC 12,131 194,038 LANARK South Lanarkshire TC 10,369 77,664 AIRDRIE North Lanarkshire TC 10,002 83,338

*There is some overlap between commercial centres and other locations

Many bulky goods commercial centres are solely retail locations and car-based by the nature of their offer of bulky furnishings, DIY and ‘white’ domestic electrical goods. This often includes large convenience superstores with an associated non-food offer. However, some commercial centres can evolve into general comparison goods shopping destinations, beyond their intended role and function, to the potential detriment of the wider network of centres, as the consequence of the employment of

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the sequential test. Consideration of NSLSP data indicates that some centres are cited as general comparison goods shopping destinations, albeit on a modest and local scale.

• Darnley • Faraday Retail Park (within Coatbridge town centre) • Linwood (Phoenix Retail Park) • Robroyston • Toryglen • Uddingston (Birkenshaw Retail Park)

The main strategic issue associated with bulky goods retailing is the clear dominance of Braehead. Nonetheless, the potential for these locations to draw an unacceptable level of general comparison goods trade from strategic centres and town centres does remain of concern. There is a need to ensure the role and function of the strategic network of centres is identified and maintained with particular regard to comparison goods and that bulky goods commercial centres do not evolve into comparison goods centres with such an unacceptable impact. Other than Braehead, it is not anticipated that any commercial centre will develop to a strategic scale in terms of a comparison goods offer.

4.7 Convenience Retailing The focus of retail strategy is the role and function of the network of town centres, which is closely aligned with comparison goods retailing, in ‘high street’ or retail park concentrations. Convenience goods retailing is more ‘local’ in nature, with less scope for demand-driven expenditure growth and consequential additional demand for floorspace, which is tied more closely to population change.

However, competition and market share is a potential strategic issue in spatial planning terms, following the review of the Competition Commission into food retailing. A ‘competition test’ may become a material planning consideration, and the strategic implications of this need to be considered. At the present time, review of the NSLSP data for convenience foodstores indicates no particular operator dominance at the strategic level. Therefore, convenience retailing is not considered to be a strategic issue at this time in terms of competition and market share.

Finally, the growth of the non-food ancillary offer in large format foodstores should be considered. This is a standard feature of modern superstores, but can have an individual and cumulative impact on the network of centres. This element of comparison retailing might be most appropriately considered in the local development planning and development management processes, in terms of the scale of such proposals with regard to the role and function of the identified network of centres.

Convenience foods are detailed further in Appendix E, in terms of rankings and maps of dominance and competition.

4.8 Wider Roles and Functions Finally, the wider roles and functions of centres must be scrutinised. The initial focus of this analysis is on retail in terms of scale, role and function, but other uses are considered as complementary and potentially strategic. This is underpinned by research into the effectiveness of planning policy (NPPG8) on town centres and

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retailing, as highlighted in section 4.2. This research concludes (paragraph 3.70) that centres require certain credentials in terms of uses, roles and functions including:

• Fashion/ mainstream comparison retailing

• Public transport hubs/ services

• Car parking

• Civic space/ buildings

• Tourist attractions

• Food/ drink establishments

• Financial/professional services

• Leisure venues

So a high level analysis has been undertaken into uses, roles and functions including housing, business and employment, leisure, cultural and heritage, and community and civic. This provides a complementary picture to retail analysis and highlights the vital role played by centres which may not necessarily have a strategic retail offer.

4.9 Summary of Centres The role and function of each centre is detailed in Figure 18 in terms of retail based upon the following criteria:

• Core Catchment Population (population by quintile) • Core Catchment Shoppers (shopping population by quintile) • Core Catchment Expenditure (£million by quintile) • Retained Spend (percentage of expenditure by quintile) • Imported Spend (£million by quintile) • Core Catchment Coverage (postcode sector by quintile) • Geographical Dominance (rated 1 to 5 based on postcode sectors of

dominance) • Cross Boundary Coverage (ranked 1 to 5) • Hierarchy (ranked 1 to 5) • Spatial Function (ranked 1 to 5) • Comparison Floorspace (floorspace by quintile) • Convenience Floorspace (floorspace by quintile) • Service Floorspace (floorspace by quintile) • Leisure Floorspace (floorspace by quintile) • Vacancies (percentage of all floorspace by quintile) • Vacant and Derelict Land (land area in hectares from SVDLS by quintile) • Accessibility by Public Transport (generalised cost of travel by quintile) • Wider role and function: Housing, Employment and Business, Leisure,

Cultural and Heritage, Community and Civic

These matrices are ranked on a scale of 1 to 5, from lowest to highest, with further guidance criteria at Appendix F for wider roles and functions.

From this comparative analysis, centres have been categorised as:

• Strategic;

• Potentially strategic in terms of other role and function; and

29

• Not strategic, but local in nature.

Following on from the appraisal work and subsequent consultation, it has been deemed appropriate to categorise the ‘potentially strategic’ centres as strategic in terms of their wider role and function, in order to provide a balanced and complementary network of centres.

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Figure 19 Role and Function

RETAIL WIDER ROLE AND FUNCTION

Centres

Core C

atchment P

opulation

Core C

atchment S

hoppers

Core C

atchment E

xpenditure

Retained S

pend

Imported S

pend

Core C

atchment C

overage

Geographical D

ominance

Cross B

oundary Coverage

Hierarchy

Spatial Function

Com

parison Floorspace

Convenience Floorspace

Service Floorspace

Leisure Floorspace

Vacancies

Vacant and D

erelict Land

Accessibility P

ublic Transport

Housing

Em

ployment and B

usiness

Leisure

Cultural and H

eritage

Com

munity and C

ivic

CITY CENTRE

1 GLASGOW CITY 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 STRATEGIC RETAIL CENTRES

2 BRAEHEAD 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 1 5 1 3 1 1 3 2 2 3 CLYDEBANK 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 4 2 4 5 1 4 5 4 3 3 5 4 EAST KILBRIDE 5 5 5 5 3 5 3 2 3 4 5 2 2 2 5 1 3 2 4 3 3 4 5 EASTERHOUSE 5 5 5 3 1 3 2 3 3 1 4 3 1 1 2 2 4 3 2 1 1 2 6 GREENOCK 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 4 5 5 1 5 4 5 1 5 4 4 4 5 7 HAMILTON 5 5 5 5 1 4 3 1 1 3 4 1 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 8 PAISLEY 5 5 5 4 2 4 2 1 1 2 3 1 4 1 1 5 5 4 4 2 4 5 9 PARKHEAD 5 4 4 4 1 5 2 1 3 1 1 4 3 1 4 2 5 4 2 2 2 2 10 POLLOK 5 5 5 4 2 4 1 2 3 1 5 4 1 1 5 1 4 1 2 2 1 3 11 RAVENSCRAIG 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 1 4 4

STRATEGIC OTHER CENTRES 12 AIRDRIE 3 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 1 2 3 4 4 3 4 13 COATBRIDGE 4 4 4 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 5 5 4 3 1 3 3 3 4 3 4 14 CUMBERNAULD 4 4 4 5 1 2 2 1 1 3 3 5 5 5 1 1 2 5 4 4 3 4 15 DUMBARTON 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 4 5 4 16 KIRKINTILLOCH 3 3 3 5 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 1 1 1 2 3 4 3 17 LANARK 3 4 4 4 1 1 2 1 1 4 2 1 3 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 5 4 18 MOTHERWELL 4 4 4 5 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 5 5 2 5 4 4 4 5 3 5 19 NEWTON MEARNS 4 3 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 4 1 1 5 1 3 3 3 4 2 3 20 WISHAW 3 4 3 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 4 2 3 2 4 3 3

LOCAL TOWN CENTRES

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

ALEXANDRIA ANNIESLAND BAILLIESTON BARRHEAD BEARSDEN BELLSHILL BIGGAR BISHOPBRIGGS BLANTYRE CAMBUSLANG CARLUKE CASTLEMILK CLARKSTON DRUMCHAPEL DUKE STREET ERSKINE GIFFNOCK GOUROCK

39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55

GOVAN JOHNSTONE KILSYTH LARKHALL MARYHILL MILNGAVIE PAISLEY RD WEST PARTICK/BYRES RD PORT GLASGOW POSSIL RENFREW RUTHERGLEN SHAWLANDS SHETTLESTON SPRINGBURN STRATHAVEN VICTORIA RD

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Figure 20 The Network of Strategic Centres

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Figure 21 Network of Strategic Centres: Overall Strategic Role and Function

Retail Housing

Employment and Business Leisure

Cultural and Heritage

Community and Civic ROLE AND FUNCTION

GLASGOW CITY Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Retail, Housing, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

BRAEHEAD Yes No No Yes No No Retail, Leisure

CLYDEBANK Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Retail, Housing, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

EAST KILBRIDE Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Retail, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

EASTERHOUSE Yes Yes No No No No Retail, Housing,

GREENOCK Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Retail, Housing, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

HAMILTON Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Retail, Housing, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

PAISLEY Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Retail, Housing, Employment & Business, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

PARKHEAD Yes Yes No No No No Retail, Housing,

RAVENSCRAIG Yes No Yes Yes No Yes Retail, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural and Civic

POLLOK Yes No No No No Yes Retail, Community and Civic

AIRDRIE No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Housing, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

COATBRIDGE No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Housing, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

CUMBERNAULD No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Housing, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

DUMBARTON No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

KIRKINTILLOCH No No No Yes Yes Yes Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

LANARK No No No Yes Yes Yes Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

MOTHERWELL No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Housing, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

NEWTON MEARNS No Yes Yes Yes No Yes Housing, Employment & Business, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

WISHAW No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Housing, Leisure, Cultural & Heritage, Community and Civic

1 2 3 4 5

Least Average Most

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4.10 Strategic Retail and Other Centres Strategic retail and other retail centres are summarised below in Figure 22.

Figure 22 Summary of Strategic and Potential Strategic Centres and Issues Centre Strategic

Retail or Other Issue

Glasgow City

Retail

City Centre, Regional and National Importance; relationship with out-of-city-centre retailing is a key issue

Braehead

Retail

Strategic Centre but clearly dominant sub-regional centre – role and function, relationship with Paisley and Glasgow and accessibility are key issues

Clydebank Retail

Strategic retail town centre

East Kilbride

Retail

Strategic retail town centre

Easterhouse Retail

Strategic retail town centre with significant mall-type offer at the Fort

Greenock

Retail

Strategic retail town centre, self contained catchment

Hamilton

Retail

Strategic retail town centre

Paisley

Retail

Strategic retail town centre, dominated by Braehead

Parkhead

Retail

Strategic retail town centre with significant mall-type offer at Forge

Pollok

Retail

Strategic retail town centre with significant mall-type offer at Silverburn

Ravenscraig

Retail

Strategic retail town centre; future relationship with other centres in the East to be defined

Airdrie

Other Strategic town centre; future relationship with other centres in the East to be defined

Coatbridge

Other Strategic town centre; future relationship with other centres in the East to be defined

Cumbernauld

Other Strategic town centre, modest patronage and geographically isolated from the wider network

Dumbarton

Other Potential strategic retail town centre; distant from Clydebank but dominated by Clydebank

Kirkintilloch

Other Strategic town centre; outlying, limited patronage but locally important.

Lanark

Other Strategic town centre, modest patronage but geographically isolated from the wider network

Motherwell

Other Strategic town centre; future relationship with other centres in the East to be defined

Newton Mearns

Other Strategic town centre; limited patronage but locally important.

Wishaw Other Strategic town centre; limited patronage but locally important.

4.11 Strategic Retail Centres • Glasgow City Centre. The overwhelmingly dominant centre of West Central

Scotland, and Scotland’s top shopping destination. A core catchment population of 1.16m, serving some 633,600 shoppers from this catchment and over 900,000 shoppers in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £1,841m, and expenditure is also attracted from all other centres in Glasgow

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and the Clyde Valley, ranging from between 19% and 68% of expenditure, on average 38%. Glasgow dominates most of the north of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, in particular East Dunbartonshire (68% spend from Kirkintilloch) stretching southwest into East Renfrewshire and northwest into West Dunbartonshire. The main competitor is Braehead, in western areas. Retained expenditure seems relatively low at 54%, but this is due to the extent of the catchment. In terms of wider role and function, the offer of Glasgow is without parallel in GCV and more distant facilities are readily accessible by public transport.

• Braehead. A core catchment population of 400,000, serving some 121,000 shoppers from this catchment and nearly 175,000 shoppers in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £358m, and expenditure is also attracted from Paisley (33%), Dumbarton, Greenock, Clydebank, Pollok and Easterhouse. Braehead retains 3 of expenditure originating within the primary catchment. Not designated as a town centre, but the scale of this commercial centre must be considered to be strategic. This centre dominates much of the west of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, drawing expenditure from centres in Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, West Dunbartonshire and Glasgow, also competing with Glasgow City Centre. In terms of wider role and function, there are notable leisure and heritage facilities.

• Clydebank. A core catchment of 122,275 serving some 43,290 shoppers from this catchment and 62,774 shoppers in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £110.9m, with spend attracted from Dumbarton in particular (26%), also Braehead. Clydebank retains some 35% of expenditure originating within the primary catchment. This centre fulfils a dominant strategic role in West Dunbartonshire, with Dumbarton as a subordinate centre, and it competes with both Glasgow City and Braehead. Clydebank town centre comprises a range of uses beyond retail, these include Council offices and leisure uses where a cinema and leisure complex are both located. There is also an outdoor market area located outside the shopping centre which functions two days a week.

• East Kilbride. A core catchment population of 208,000 serving some 90,000 shippers from this catchment and over 130,000 shoppers in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £282m, and expenditure is also attracted from Hamilton (16%), Motherwell, Wishaw, Pollok and Airdrie. East Kilbride retains 43% of expenditure originating within the primary catchment. This centre fulfils a dominant strategic role in the south of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, covering East Renfrewshire and South Lanarkshire. Wider role and function is planned to be underpinned by a civic centre development including a health centre, theatre, car parking, museum and library, notwithstanding the challenges of the current economic climate.

• Easterhouse. A core catchment of 234,605 which serves 22,239 shoppers within the core catchment and 32,245 in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £59.1m, with 10% of all potential expenditure within the catchment retained and spend imported from Forge (9%) and Glasgow City Centre (1%), but with expenditure migrating to Coatbridge and Parkhead/Forge. This centre’s catchment extends to the east and it competes with Parkhead Forge, Coatbridge and Airdrie, covering a greater area and catchment population than the comparator Motherwell, which has a similar level of expenditure. In terms of wider role and function, the Westwood Business Centre includes nearly 6,000 sqm of class 4 floorspace,

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and there are sports and leisure facilities as well as parkland and a local college and cultural campus, plus community and civic facilities.

• Hamilton. A core catchment population of 140,600, serving some 50,200 shoppers from this catchment and 73,000 shoppers in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £145m, and spend is also attracted from Wishaw (15%), Lanark, Motherwell and East Kilbride. Hamilton retains 36% of expenditure originating within the primary catchment. This centre fulfils a dominant strategic role in South Lanarkshire, also competing with centres in North Lanarkshire. In terms of wider role and function it is of strategic significance for the considered range of uses, with a range of historic buildings and nearby to Strathclyde Country Park. It also possesses three railway stations.

• Greenock. A core catchment of 65,140, serving some 35,379 shoppers from this catchment and 54,090 in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £92.5m, and 54% of spend is retained in the core catchment, 1 migrating to Braehead. Notably, only 19% of expenditure migrates to Glasgow City Centre. This centre is self-contained with no significant gain or loss of expenditure from or to other centres, and dominates Inverclyde, competing mainly with Braehead. In terms of wider role and function, Greenock is the major retail, leisure, administrative and cultural centre of Inverclyde. Greenock is also particularly accessible to the wider catchment by a number of modes although the rail stations are not centrally located in relation to the main shopping area.

• Paisley. A core catchment of 97,555 which serves 25,713 shoppers within the core catchment and 37,790 in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £68.9m, with 26% of all potential expenditure retained within the catchment (and 9% attracted from Braehead) but with 33% migrating to Braehead in particular, and notably only 22% reaching Glasgow, perhaps due to the influence of Braehead. This centre is overshadowed by, or in competition with, Braehead to varying degrees in all of its catchment (and, to a lesser extent, Silverburn) and future consideration of the relationship between Paisley and Braehead may be required. In terms of wider role and function, Paisley fulfils a significant strategic role as a cultural and civic centre, also as an centre for education and an employment and business location, but perhaps less of a leisure role. Paisley is linked to the national rail network with four railway stations.

• Parkhead. A core catchment of 128,304, which serves 20,343 shoppers within the primary catchment and 29,423 within the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £34.4m, and 16% of all potential expenditure is retained within the catchment, with expenditure migrating to Easterhouse (9%). This centre is dominated by Glasgow in particular, and has a high level of expenditure but is clearly in Glasgow City Centre’s orbit and thus a subordinate centre. However, a number of Community Growth Areas exist under the MDS to the east of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. This centre is arguably of strategic retail significance given the offer and catchment, but fulfils a limited role in terms of wider role and function, although there is a multiplex cinema within the shopping centre.

• Pollok. A core catchment of 181,010 which serves some 25,139 shoppers in the core catchment and 36,578 in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £75.3m, with 14% of all potential expenditure

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retained within the catchment, and expenditure migrating to Braehead (1) and East Kilbride. This centre exhibits less dominance than might be expected, and competes with Braehead, East Kilbride and Glasgow City Centre. The level of expenditure and extent of the catchment would indicate a strategic role, but accessibility is predominantly by private car and the relationship with Glasgow city centre needs to be considered.

• Ravenscraig. As a future centre, Ravenscraig has planning status as a town centre and it is proposed that in excess of 50,000 sqm of floorspace will be developed, with additional housing of 3,500 units. Given the complex planning history of the town centre status of Ravenscraig and the acknowledged retail effects on surrounding centres, it will be necessary to consider the future relationship between Ravenscraig, Motherwell and Wishaw. In terms of wider role and function, Ravenscraig is intended to have a strategic role and already has a significant educational function, with future sports and business developments also intended.

4.12 Other Strategic Centres • Airdrie. A core catchment of 26,615 which serves 4,807 shoppers within the

core catchment and 8,928 within the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £12.6m, and 18% of all potential expenditure within the catchment is retained, 5% migrating to Coatbridge. 4% of expenditure leaks to Falkirk. This centre is not dominant in retail terms, is somewhat smaller than Coatbridge and overshadowed by Glasgow City Centre and Easterhouse. Airdrie is closely linked to Coatbridge and fulfils a number of strategic roles and function other than retail, with notable cultural and heritage features including a public observatory. Airdrie has reasonable accessibility by rail and this will improve once the Airdrie-Bathgate line is open.

• Coatbridge. A core catchment of 44,356 serving 11,597 shoppers from this catchment and 17,264 in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £30m, with 26% of all potential expenditure retained within the catchment, also attracting expenditure from Airdrie and Parkhead Forge (5%). This includes a retail park within the town centre boundary. This centre is in close proximity to Airdrie, greater in magnitude but not locally dominant. The area is dominated by Glasgow City Centre, and this centre also competes with Easterhouse. In terms of wider role and function, there is a country park, heritage park and leisure centre, and the town has a notable St Patrick’s Day festival. There are good rail links with six railway stations in proximity to the town.

• Cumbernauld. A core catchment of 44,119 which serves 11,776 shoppers within the core catchment and 18,426 within the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £34.4m, with 27% of all potential expenditure retained within the catchment. This centre loses 5% expenditure to Falkirk and 6% to Stirling. This centre has some local dominance and is geographically isolated in the north west of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, with a nearby Community Growth Area. There are a number of schools and colleges, civic and leisure facilities, and access to Glasgow via the rail network.

• Dumbarton. A core catchment serving 4,848 shoppers. Expenditure accounts for £14m, with 13% of all potential expenditure retained within the catchment. The area is dominated by Clydebank and Glasgow City Centre. In terms of wider role and function, there is a range of uses including a leisure

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centre, historic castle, maritime museum, plus leisure centre and various municipal offices. The town has two railway stations and access to the wider rail network.

• Kirkintilloch. A core catchment of 25,736 which serves 2,602 shoppers within the catchment and 3,391 within the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £7.9m, and 1 of all potential expenditure within the catchment is retained. This centre is overwhelmingly dominated by Glasgow, which takes some 68% of expenditure, but it is an outlying town centre in a local authority area with no other locally dominant centre. There is a new leisure centre, also schools and civic facilities.

• Lanark. A core catchment of 24,993 which serves 5,133 shoppers in the core catchment and 7,664 in the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £15.4m, with 21% of all potential expenditure within the catchment retained, but with 13% of expenditure migrating to Lanark and 21% leakage to Livingston. Notably, only 25% migrates to Glasgow. This centre is modest in terms of patronage, but serves an isolated catchment far removed from the wider network of centres, and fulfils a key geographic role. In terms of wider role and function, there are cafés, restaurants, public houses, museums, religious centres, and community and leisure facilities, including a swimming pool. New Lanark is a World Heritage Site. Lanark has bus and rail stations with wider connections.

• Motherwell. A core catchment of 77,088 serving 21,280 shoppers and 32,832 in the wider catchment. Expenditure accounts for £58.2m, and 28% of all potential expenditure within the catchment is retained, with spend also attracted from Wishaw (14%) but lost to Hamilton (13%) and East Kilbride in particular. This centre is perhaps overshadowed by nearby Hamilton (which extends largely southwards), but forms its own catchment to the East of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, and draws expenditure from nearby Wishaw. The future relationship with Ravenscraig may need further investigation. In terms of wider role and function, there are employment and business locations, good transport connections and leisure and civic functions, in particular for sports.

• Newton Mearns. A core catchment of 32,259 which serves 3,398 shoppers within the core catchment and 5,073 within the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £13.4m and 13% of all potential expenditure within the catchment is retained. This centre is dominated by Glasgow and East Kilbride, and has modest level of expenditure, but is an outlying town centre in a local authority area with no other locally dominant centre. In terms of wider uses, there are a leisure centre and parks, civic facilities and schools, mainly serving a commuter community.

• Wishaw. A core catchment of 26,483 which serves 4,533 shoppers within the catchment and 8,527 within the full catchment. Expenditure accounts for £11.9m, and 17% of all potential expenditure within the catchment is retained. This centre will be impacted by the development of Ravenscraig. A proposed Community Growth Area is to the south east. In terms of wider role and function, the town has leisure and sporting facilities including a leisure centre, and is on the rail network.

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4.13 Issues arising from the Network of Centres From consideration of the network of centres above, it follows that there is a preferred approach and two possible alternative approaches.

• Preferred Approach: City Centre and Strategic Centre focus.

• Alternate Approach 1: Centralisation on the City Centre alone for strategic retail.

• Alternative Approach 2: Decentralisation, with the City Centre one tier above all other centres in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley.

The strategic network of centres will be the focus for future strategic retailing in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. This does not prejudice the status of those other town centres (or commercial centres subject to the appropriate policies), which are appropriate centres for retail development in accordance with national policy guidance, but their role and function is other than strategic retailing.

4.14 Preferred Approach: City Centre and Strategic Centre Focus The preferred approach is to focus upon Glasgow City Centre as the Strategic City Centre, with a second tier of Strategic Centres, which may be Town Centres or identified Commercial Centres. The list of centres which are clearly strategic in retail or in other terms is below: Strategic Retail Centres

• Glasgow City Centre • Braehead • Clydebank

• East Kilbride • Easterhouse • Greenock • Hamilton

• Paisley • Parkhead • Pollok • Ravenscraig

Other Strategic Centres

• Airdrie • Coatbridge • Cumbernauld

• Dumbarton • Kirkintilloch • Lanark • Motherwell

• Newton Mearns • Wishaw

The other strategic centres should be investigated further, to ascertain their future role and function in relation to the strategic retail centres, within the context of a network of centres. This is mainly the case for the East of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, in North Lanarkshire, where a number of smaller centres (including the future town centre of Ravenscraig) can potentially perform a strategic role. This will be detailed further in the Review and Monitoring chapter of this document

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4.15 Alternate Approaches Further Centralisation The first alternative approach is to centralise strategic retail on Glasgow City Centre. This would identify the City Centre as the sole focus for strategic retail. The benefits of this approach are the fact that the centre is highly accessible and is unarguably the ‘engine’ of the regional economy. The city centre’s role and function would be safeguarded beyond doubt. However, this approach would increase the need to travel, even though this may be by more sustainable modes of transport. Employment opportunities would also be centralised. This may undermine regeneration opportunities elsewhere, and would concentrate the economic benefits of retailing in a smaller catchment.

Decentralisation The second approach is in line with the existing Metropolitan Development Strategy, and is to identify Glasgow City Centre as the priority and all other town centres (and identified commercial centres) as appropriate locations for strategic development. There would be a list of some 55 centres throughout Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. The benefits of this approach are the fact that opportunities would be spread more widely, allowing for a market-led approach and more localised provision of retailing opportunities. However, this could potentially undermine the City Centre and would not recognise the reality that some centres are more attractive to retailers than others. There is the risk that the sequential test could allow out-of-centre development in smaller centres, where the scale of development is not appropriate to the role and function of the centre.

4.16 Spatial Issues arising from the Preferred Approach A critical issue is the network of centres in North Lanarkshire. Ravenscraig is identified as a future strategic town centre, but the existing network includes Motherwell and Wishaw, as well as Airdrie and Coatbridge further northwards. Clearly not all centres can be strategic. This approach places Ravenscraig as the strategic retail centre, complemented by the other centres in terms of their wider role and function. Scenario testing of such options as part of Retail Capacity Assessment may be useful in this regard. Smaller more remote centres such as Lanark and Cumbernauld serve discrete catchments and fulfil a necessary strategic function. Also, Cumbernauld is associated with a Community Growth Area and leakage to other centres (as is Lanark). So, a strategic role is necessary for these centres. Kirkintilloch and Newton Mearns are identified as strategic centres with other roles and functions, as both centres occupy distinct spatial locations and are of local importance, but are firmly in the orbit of retail centres such as Glasgow City Centre. The role and function of Braehead is of vital importance. This commercial centre forms its own extensive catchment and draws expenditure from much of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, and beyond. It is clearly of a strategic scale, but as a commercial centre it would be accorded less sequential priority than identified town centres. This issue needs to be addressed and three possible options are below.

• Braehead as a strategic town centre. This is dependant upon the wider role and function and the extent of other town centre uses in this location, whether current or committed. For town centre designation, a diverse and sustainable mix of activities and land uses should be demonstrated; it should not simply be retail led.

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• Braehead as a strategic commercial centre, equivalent to other strategic centres. National planning policy guidance allows for exemptions to be made in the Development Plan to the sequential test. However, this is not a viable option as the policy relates to town centres rather than commercial centres.

• Braehead as a strategic commercial centre in line with the established Metropolitan Development Strategy. This would maintain the status quo, where investment to maintain and improve the commercial centre should be supported where this does not undermine town centres. The role and function of Braehead as a strategic centre would allow for sequential preference in terms of other non strategic town centres, with regard to strategic retail proposals. However, Braehead would be subordinate to Paisley and Silverburn (as strategic town centres) by default in terms of strategic retail proposals.

The most appropriate option is to recognise Braehead as an evolving town centre in a relationship with Paisley town centre, which fulfils a wider range of town centre functions and which has a distinctly different retail offer. This would allow the Local Development Plan to frame this policy and to support investment in Braehead on the basis of the relationship with Paisley.

4.17 Other Town Centres Other town centres will continue to be appropriate locations for retail development of the appropriate scale, where this accords with their role and function. Nevertheless, the identification of strategic retailing centres should provide the basis for sustainable retail and related economic development over the plan period, ensuring the scale of retail development is related to the size, role and function of a strategic centre and its catchment. Where this is not evident, then demonstration of qualitative and quantitative need would be expected. Also, the hierarchy of development policy provides details as to the scale of developments in local, major and national development terms.

4.18 The Network of Centres The identified network of centres is a hierarchy with Glasgow City Centre at the top, followed by the eleven strategic retail centres and then all other town centres including those with other strategic functions. This is supported by the network of commercial centres, subject to the sequential test.

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5 Consultation, Review and Monitoring The issues identified in this Background Report will be consulted upon in the Main Issues Report for the Strategic Development Plan. Pre-consultation has already taken place, with a Retail Focus Group on 28 July 2010 and a retail-themed meeting of the Strategic Development Plan Steering Group on 4 August 2010, in addition to meetings of the Retail Topic Group and ongoing discussions with all eight Local Authorities.

Responses from consultees will be taken forward into the plan preparation process, in particular with regard to the network of centres and their wider role and function. This includes a Retail Focus Group and consultation with Local Authorities prior to the commencement of formal consultation.

Further work will be conducted on retail capacity assessment and on the other roles and functions of the identified network of centres. This will, in turn, inform the draft Strategic Development Plan which will be subject to further consultation and examination.

It is proposed to conduct a high lever retail capacity assessment, focusing upon the existence of gaps and deficiencies and also relative capacity, rather than a prescriptive range of floorspace. This will allow direction for the retail industry and for local development planning and development management. Further details will be progressed through the Retail Topic Group. In the longer term, retail capacity will be monitored and updated on a recurring basis, providing a high level picture of retailing trends in relation to the strategic network of centres.

In terms of development management, the philosophy of the Strategic Development Plan system is to focus upon long-term strategic and spatial visionary planning. This will avoid unnecessary detail regarding to development management, which is subject to national legislation and regulation. However, guidance may be necessary at the strategic or local level, also retail impact. The Strategic Development Plan will not set thresholds, as the nature of ‘strategic development’ may be best defined in a local context, perhaps in line with the regulations relating to the hierarchy of developments (national, major, local). In terms of retail impact, the guidance of Scottish Planning Policy requires no assessment of retail impact for town centre developments, but development management regulations require the notification to Ministers of development under certain circumstances, and allow planning authorities to require information from applicants that is necessary to determine an application. So there is no gap in existing policy coverage relating to development management or impact, but there will be a requirement to ensure consistency in application. This issue will be discussed in detail through the Retail Topic Group as part of the Strategic Development Plan preparation process.

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6 Conclusion The following issues arise from this technical analysis, for consideration.

• Strategic Retailing. A subjective and comparative approach has been used to identify strategic retail centres in terms of shopper population, expenditure, spatial coverage and expenditure flows between centres and local authority areas with regard to comparison goods.

• Strategic Retailing. The approach to be taken is likely to rely on the output of a Retail Capacity Assessment to provide guidance as to future capacity.

• Strategic Centres. It is assumed that a strategic retail centre may be a town centre or a commercial centre. Conversely, not all town centres and commercial centres are necessarily appropriate locations for strategic retailing.

• Analysis. Most analysis employs the NSLSP data for comparison goods supplied by CBRE Richard Ellis, and the wider consideration of qualitative issues related to retail and wider role and function.

• Future Expenditure Growth. This report highlights the consideration of different expenditure and population projections and forecasts in the current economic climate. There is likely to be significantly less comparison goods expenditure growth over forthcoming years than in the past.

• Future Expenditure and Capacity. A high level assessment of potential expenditure growth illustrates the spatial context and the variation of projected and forecast expenditure growth. It is proposed to conduct a Retail Capacity Assessment as the next step in this process, to provide an indicative range of turnover and/or floorspace potential.

• Roles and Functions of Centres. This report provides a high level assessment of the roles and functions of centres. Some have strategic retail characteristics, others have other strategic roles and functions and there are further town centres and commercial centres.

• Bulky Goods Retailing. Bulky goods retailing is not considered to raise any particular spatial strategic issues, other than general restraint of comparison (non bulky) goods.

• Convenience Goods Retailing. Convenience goods retailing is not considered to raise any particular spatial strategic issues, other than general restraint of comparison (non food) goods as an ancillary offer, to a proportionate level.

• Identified Approaches – City Centre and Strategic Focus, Centralisation, Decentralisation. These three broad approaches have been identified.

• Preferred Approach – City Centre and Strategic Centre Focus. The preferred approach looks at the city centre and other strategic retail centres.

• Strategic Spatial Issue: Braehead. Braehead is a commercial centre with an identified role and function of comparison shopping at a strategic scale. As a commercial centre, it is current role and function as a strategic retail destination.

o Braehead as a strategic town centre, dependant upon the wider role and function and the extent of other town centre uses which should demonstrate a diverse and sustainable mix of activities and land uses.

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o Braehead as a strategic commercial centre in line with the established Metropolitan Development Strategy. This would maintain the status quo and allow investment to maintain and improve the commercial centre where this does not undermine town centres. The strategic role and function would allow for sequential preference over non-strategic town centres, but not equivalency with strategic town centres.

• North Lanarkshire and the East. Ravenscraig is identified as a town centre in the Metropolitan Development Strategy. This is in addition to the town centres of Motherwell and Wishaw, with 3 town centres within 5km, in turn within 10km of the centres of Airdrie and Coatbridge which are also closely located to each other. This polycentric approach has developed over past plans for North Lanarkshire, but is difficult to maintain in terms of strategic retail. So Ravenscraig is the most appropriate location for strategic retail, complemented by the other town centres in North Lanarkshire.

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APPENDICES

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46

Appendix A: National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns

TERMINOLOGY, DEFINITIONS & CATCHMENT TYPES The National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns (NSLSP) is a continuous household survey of food and non-food shopping patterns covering the whole of Great Britain. The survey, established in 1996, records the shopping destination preferences of households for comparison goods, convenience goods and bulky goods. Over 10.5 million households in Great Britain have so far provided details of their comparison, convenience and bulky goods shopping destination preferences to the NSLSP programme. NSLSP surveys are repeated annually. Each new survey covers about 35% of all GB postcodes. Responses are fully-dispersed geographically. Goods Coverage The survey identifies local domestic shopper flows from zones (commonly postal sectors, hexagonal geographies or output areas) to comparison goods, convenience goods, main grocery and bulky goods trading locations. Main grocery shopping patterns are identified at individual branch level; convenience, comparison and bulky goods shopping destinations are identified at shopping area level or, in the case of purpose-built out of town shopping facilities, at retail park or centre level. Number of Locations Covered The NSLSP programme identifies more than 12,000 primary food and non-food shopping destinations in Great Britain. NSLSP data-sets capture shopper flows to all significant shopping destinations nationally. Flows Identified The NSLSP programme identifies primary, ‘most-often’, shopper flows to comparison and bulky goods destinations and main-grocery flows to food outlets and convenience shopping destinations. ‘Solus’ shopper flows - respondents reporting shopping for all goods at a single destination - can also be supplied together with all-visitor flows. The latter are computed by applying shopping frequency rates to

comparison goods, convenience goods and bulky goods flows and combining results Grocery Market Shares NSLSP surveys provide both area market shares by grocery branch, of the type traditionally available in the industry, and branch level catchment penetrations for individual grocery outlets. The grocery chains covered currently include: Aldi/Netto; Asda/Walmart; Budgens; Co-op; Iceland; Kwiksave; Lidl; Makro/Spar; Marks & Spencer; Morrisons; J Sainsbury; Somerfield; Tesco; and Waitrose. Catchment Areas Catchment areas are determined by allocating every zone where one or more households report visiting the named shopping destination for comparison, convenience or grocery shopping purposes. NSLSP catchments are, in this respect, ‘self-forming’ in that no subjective judgement is applied regarding the geographic extent of catchments determined by the survey. NSLSP catchments identify the true geographic extent of trading location catchment areas. NSLSP results over the years have revealed that the geographic extent of trading location catchments in Great Britain are commonly far-larger than previously supposed. Catchments have tended to continue growing in size due to ever-increasing car-usage and the agglomeration of shopping into fewer, but larger, ‘super-centres’. Catchment Data-Sets Six separate catchment data-sets are constructed for the NSLSP programme: 1. comparison goods catchments 2. convenience goods catchments 3. main grocery – branch level – catchments 4. all-visitor catchments (all respondents regardless of trip purpose); 5. solus catchments (areas from which respondents reporting shopping in the same location for both food and non-food goods are attracted). 6. retail warehouse park catchments In addition to catchment data-sets, area data-sets identifying market penetrations of competing locations or grocery fascias

47

within any defined geography are available together with mail order and income data-sets. Catchment Area Types The six catchment area types mentioned above can each be represented in a number of different ways. For example, the full geographic extent of the catchment area of any individual trading location is identified by plotting all the postal sectors where one or more respondents report shopping in the subject location. The majority of regular shoppers using a trading location are however usually attracted from a much smaller area; catchments are consequently commonly plotted thematically, in one way or another to identify the impact of distance decay on shopping destination preferences. NSLSP standard catchments are described below. ‘Catchment Contribution’: catchment contribution analyses derive core, secondary, tertiary etc catchment areas by reference to the proportion of overall shoppers attracted from various parts of the catchment. Catchment contributions are generally used for market targeting or multi-centre studies where ‘like-for-like’ comparisons are required. The two most commonly used approaches are ‘Contribution by Penetration Rate’ and ‘Contribution by Population’. In the first example, Contribution by Penetration Rate, postal sectors forming the catchment are ranked in descending order by penetration rate. The number of shoppers from each postal sector, attracted by the subject trading location, are accumulated – in descending order – until the required percentage contribution rate is achieved (commonly 70% or 85%). For example, if a 70% threshold is adopted, postal sectors from the catchment that cumulatively contribute 70% of the trading location’s shoppers are identified. The postal sectors identified, for most trading locations at the latter percentage level are usually – but not always – reasonably contiguous. The second example, ‘Contribution by Population’, is the same as ‘by penetration rate’ above, though instead of ranking by penetration rate, postal sectors are ranked by the number of shoppers that they contribute to the subject location. Because

of population density variations between postal sectors, some sectors – particularly those located in certain city centres where population levels are very low – can achieve high penetration rates but contribute only a small number of actual shoppers. This approach has the benefit of identifying the cells that actually contribute the most shoppers. ‘Non-Overlapping’ or ‘Dominant’ catchments Non-overlapping catchment areas are commonly used to identify trading location dominance. If individual postal sectors are allocated to trading locations achieving the highest penetration rate, about 300 or so non-overlapping catchments are generated (the exact number is determined by the zone geography adopted). The trading locations identified by this form of allocation are described as ‘dominant’ trading locations. ‘Dominant Competing Centres’ are derived in the same way as the non-overlapping allocation described above but apply to individual catchments. This form of sector allocation is designed to identify primary areas of influence for both subject trading locations and competing centres. ‘Dominant Competing Centre’ allocations are often used to refine consumer targeting programmes by identifying first-choice and second choice sectors which can be mapped, for any location, pinpointing areas of competitive weakness. The three approaches most commonly used are shown below: Generic: in this example, postal sectors – within the subject catchment – are sorted into two groups: (1) sectors where the subject trading location achieves the highest penetration rate; (2) sectors where competing centres achieve the highest penetration rate. Named: the same approach as above (Generic) except that competing centres are identified separately. Named (Threshold): a third approach is occasionally used, a variant of Generic but with a percentage threshold applied (commonly a 50% penetration rate cut-off) to

48

identify high penetration competing centre clusters. ‘Catchment Band’ or ‘Thematic’: sorting postal sectors by penetration rate band is sometimes used for presenting ad hoc catchment survey results: i.e. surveys where it is not possible to compare centre catchment results. Postal sectors forming the catchment are simply sorted into two or three groups. For example, postal sectors with penetration rates of more than 30% are adopted to denote prime or core; postal sectors where the trading location achieves a penetration of say between 15% and 29% denoted secondary etc. There are two main weakness in this approach: a) the definition of core and secondary or core, secondary and tertiary is intrinsically arbitrary (any percentage cut off can be chosen) and b) penetration rates, as mentioned above, are a function of market strength: while it may be reasonable to use constant penetration rate thresholds for trading locations of similar size, constant percentage thresholds cannot be applied meaningfully to trading locations where market sizes differ. Analyses by penetration rate band appear to have grown out of industry familiarity with drive-time isochrones. Penetration rate bands should not – in most cases - be used to compare penetration rate distributions in different catchments. An alternative approach is to use a much broader band range and plot thematically or use a tint specific to each cell value. The latter approach is less mechanical albeit the definition of core, secondary, tertiary areas etc remains wholly subjective. ‘Centroid Value’ or ‘Sample Cluster’: all cell geography commonly used in the industry for catchment analysis purposes (postal geography and administrative geography for example) provide boundaries that are, to some degree, arbitrary and can be misleading when used to determine the true extent of catchments. For larger trading locations, smoothed catchment boundaries – more akin to drive-time contours – can be derived by generating contours according to cell values or sample clusters rather than cell boundaries.

Constant Cell Geographies: hexagonal geographies, grid-squares, or other geometric forms either of constant size or varied in size to fit pre-determined population densities, are used by some analysts to avoid the interpretative problems that can sometimes arise when using postal or administrative cell boundaries. Penetration Rate (Contiguous): in this form of analysis, postal sectors forming the catchment are ranked in descending order by penetration rate. The number of shoppers from each contiguous postal sector, attracted by the subject trading location, are accumulated – in descending order – until the required contribution rate is achieved. This approach ensures that only contiguous cells are included. Self-Forming (Constrained): this form of allocation is as described under ‘Non-Overlapping’ above: i.e. postal sectors are allocated to the trading location achieving the highest penetration rate. In this form of allocation, a higher level penetration rate threshold is applied to exclude trading locations that are notionally ‘dominant’ but that do not meet the required penetration rate criteria. First, Second, Third (etc) Choice NSLSP catchments can be plotted thematically to identify whether the subject is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc choice destination in each sector forming the catchment area. This type of analysis is used to identify areas of strength and weakness in catchment penetration. Outlying Cells Because penetration rates in the outer parts of catchments are usually very low, analysts sometimes apply a percentage threshold – 5% for example – to exclude low penetration rate cells or non-contiguous cells at the catchment edge. Arbitrary thresholds of this kind should not be applied to NSLSP results because: a) it results in the size of subject location shopping populations being under-stated. b) penetration rates, almost by definition – decline with market size (i.e. a percentage threshold appropriate for analysing one market may be wholly inappropriate for another).

49

‘Constant’ Catchments Because the geographic extent of catchment areas identified is to an extent dependent upon the overall sample achieved in each survey, postal sectors forming part of the tertiary catchment may be included in some years and not in others. To ensure that the NSLSP captures the full geographic extent of trading location catchment areas, the fullrolling sample is used to construct ‘constant’ catchment areas. Constant catchments allow the results of different surveys, undertaken with different sampling levels, to be compared on a like-for-like basis for time-series measurement purposes and ensures the full geographic extent of trading location catchments is captured. Catchment Penetration Rates Unlike analyses based on drive-time isochrones or other hypothetical trade area definitions, household surveys – if appropriately sampled (see under sampling) - reveal both the true geographic extent of catchment areas and the size of regular shopping populations attracted by individual trading locations. The percentage of catchment residents attracted to a trading location is termed the catchment penetration rate. For example, if a town attracts a regular shopping population of x from its catchment and the catchment contains a population of y: the catchment penetration rate is calculated by dividing x by y and multiplying by 100. The catchment penetration is, in effect, the local market share. Other market shares (national, regional etc) can be calculated simply by dividing the shopping population of the trading location by whatever base population is required. Catchment Population The number of residents in the catchment area. Catchment populations are calculated by summing the populations of the cells (postal sectors, output areas etc) identified by the NSLSP as forming the catchment. Shopping Population The ‘Shopping Population’ is the number of catchment residents using any specific shopping Facility. It is calculated by applying cell level penetration rates at postal sector, output area etc - to the populations that they

contain and summing the results for each cell forming the catchment. The shopping population totals of competing centres is calculated in the same way providing catchment ‘leakages’ for each centre. Competing Centres The catchment areas of competing trading locations usually overlap. Household survey results can thus be used to identify not just the geographic extent of a trading location’s catchment, and the shopping population it attracts, but also where else residents are shopping. These locations, because they compete for catchment trade, are described in the NSLSP programme as competing centres or competing trading locations. Flows from the catchment of a subject location to competing centres, as mentioned earlier, are commonly termed ‘leakages’. Catchment Characteristics The socio-economic, expenditure and growth characteristics of catchments are calculated by accumulating relevant data for each postal sector allocated to the named centre. Survey penetration rates can be applied to any data available at cell level to derive catchment and shopping population profiles. Shopping Population and Catchment Profiles Socio-economic and expenditure profiles are identified for catchments by summing zone results and, for shopping populations, by applying penetration rate results. Any data available at address level, postcode level or zone level can be used with NSLSP results for profiling purposes. Because only a proportion of catchment residents regularly use an individual trading location, thesocio-economic profile of catchment residents rarely corresponds exactly with the profile of the shopping population attracted to a trading location: i.e. some trading locations, because of the nature of their shopping offer or for environmental/accessibility reasons, are more attractive to one socio-economic group than another. The other reason for differences is that because catchment penetration rates decay with distance from trading locations, the geographic distribution of the population socio-economically within catchment has an impact on shopping population profiles.

50

Market Size Comparisons (Rankings) NSLSP national market size comparisons (rankings of trading location shopping population sizes) are derived by applying cell penetration rates to cell populations and aggregating results. The ranking sets derived are supplied with NSLSP penetration rate data-sets. Other Data Sets The spending potential available to individual trading locations is the potential amount of money consumers using the named trading location actually have to spend on the broad goods category selected. It is identified by applying NSLSP penetration rates for any individual catchment to small-area expenditure data-sets. The amount of trade actually captured by an individual trading location will depend upon the retail mix. Demographic, income, neighbourhood, lifestyle, newspaper readership et al profiles can be derived for catchments and shopping populations in the same ways as ‘Expenditure Flows’ above: i.e. by applying cell-level penetration rates to cell level profile averages. Data Availability NSLSP penetration rate data is usually supplied at postal sector level. As mentioned earlier, as the data is collected at address level, results can also be supplied for other cell geographies: output areas, hexagonal geographies etc (these sets are subject to additional processing costs). Catchment Master ® Catchment Master is an NSLSP reporting application that provides packaged text and statistical reports for NSLSP locations. Text reports include detailed catchment analyses with maps and tables. Statistical reports provide full demographic and spending results in Excel format. (Reproduced from NSLSP Brief 1, Terminology, Definitions and Catchment Types) © CBRE Richard Ellis, 2007.

51

.

52

Appendix B: Centre Catchments

Glasgow

Braehead

53

Clydebank

East Kilbride

54

Easterhouse Fort

Greenock

55

Hamilton

Paisley

56

Parkhead Forge

Pollok Silverburn

57

Airdrie

Coatbridge

58

Cumbernauld

Dumbarton

59

Lanark

Motherwell

60

Newton Mearns

Kirkintilloch

61

Wishaw

62

Appendix C: Expenditure Flows and Hierarchy

% R

ETA

INE

D

AIR

DR

IE

AV

EN

UE

AT

ME

AR

NS

BR

AE

HE

AD

SH

OP

PIN

G C

EN

TRE

CLY

DE

BA

NK

CO

ATB

RID

GE

CU

MB

ER

NA

ULD

DU

MB

AR

TON

EA

ST

KIL

BR

IDE

FOR

GE

SH

OP

PIN

G C

EN

TRE

GLA

SG

OW

CE

NTR

AL

GLA

SG

OW

FO

RT

SH

OP

PIN

G P

AR

K

GR

EE

NO

CK

HA

MIL

TON

KIR

KIN

TILL

OC

H

LAN

AR

K

MO

THE

RW

ELL

PA

ISLE

Y

SIL

VE

RB

UR

N

WIS

HA

W

AIRDRIE 18% 18% 1% 5% 1% 5% 44% 4% 2% 1% ALEXANDRIA 3% 14% 29% 13% 28% ANNIESLAND 1% 16% 8% 62% AVENUE AT MEARNS 11% 11% 6% 15% 47% 10% BAILLIESTON 1% 6% 67% 11% BALLOCH 2% 19% 39% 18% 1% BARRHEAD 1% 1% 24% 6% 1% 30% 18% 5% BEARSDEN 4% 10% 6% 64% BELLSHILL 4% 1% 4% 1% 53% 4% 7% 10% 1% BIGGAR 1% 1% 21% 10% 20% 5% 1% BISHOPBRIGGS 3% 5% 1% 70% 2% 3% BLANTYRE 2% 33% 1% 36% 1% 15% BRAEHEAD 30% 30% 3% 1% 34% 4% 9% 3% CAMBUSLANG 1% 33% 2% 48% 1% 2% CARLUKE 3% 9% 31% 4% 20% 3% 8% 4% CASTLEMILK 1% 4% 3% 75% CLARKSTON 1% 3% 17% 62% 4% CLYDEBANK 35% 8% 35% 4% 36% COATBRIDGE 26% 1% 26% 4% 1% 45% 4% 2% 1% CUMBERNAULD 27% 27% 1% 1% 48% 1% DARNLEY 1% 3% 1% 63% 10% DRUMCHAPEL 2% 9% 29% 40% DUMBARTON 13% 12% 26% 13% 34% EAST KILBRIDE 43% 1% 1% 43% 1% 29% 1% 10% 1% EASTERHOUSE 3% 2% 1% 5% 41% 26% ERSKINE 57% 5% 23% 5% FARADAY RETAIL PARK 1% 6% 1% 19% 1% 7% 1% 42% 5% 2% 1% FORGE SHOPPING CENTRE 16% 1% 16% 51% 9% GLASGOW CENTRAL 54% 1% 6% 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 54% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% GLASGOW FORT 10% 3% 1% 5% 1% 4% 5% 49% 10% 3% 3% GOVAN 2% 29% 44% 5% GREENOCK 54% 10% 1% 19% 54% HAMILTON 36% 16% 28% 1% 36% 2% 2% 2% HILLINGTON 33% 32% 1% JOHNSTONE 5% 36% 32% 12% KILSYTH 2% 2% 19% 42% 3% KINGSGATE RETAIL PARK 65% 17% 1% 1% KIRKINTILLOCH 10% 4% 1% 1% 68% 2% 10% LANARK 21% 4% 25% 1% 13% 21% 4% 1% LARKHALL 1% 14% 29% 47% LINWOOD 2% 36% 1% 26% 18% 1% MARYHILL SHOPPING CENTRE 3% 2% 2% 2% 65% 2% MILNGAVIE 7% 15% 10% 55% MOTHERWELL 28% 8% 1% 31% 3% 13% 28% 2% PAISLEY 26% 33% 22% 26% 3% PARTICK 3% 11% 2% 4% 60% 1% PORT GLASGOW 5% 13% 1% 1% 20% 49% 1% RENFREW 3% 56% 1% 21% 2% 6% 1% ROBROYSTON 4% 1% 3% 4% 58% 6% 1% RUTHERGLEN 3% 1% 11% 2% 63% 1% 1% SHAWLANDS 2% 3% 3% 65% 10% SHETTLESTON 1% 1% 23% 55% 2% SILVERBURN 14% 3% 10% 6% 49% 2% 14% SPRINGBURN 2% 5% 48% 2% STRATHAVEN 1% 1% 1% 59% 11% 1% 14% 1% TORYGLEN 3% 5% 2% 1% 62% 1% 2% UDDINGSTON 1% 5% 3% 49% 14% 18% WISHAW 17% 7% 29% 1% 15% 14% 17%

63

BRAEHEAD CLYDEBANK CUMBERNAULD DUMBARTON EAST KILBRIDE FORGE GLASGOW CENTRAL GLASGOW FORT GREENOCK HAMILTON LANARK MOTHERWELL PAISLEY SILVERBURN

ALEXANDRIA; ANNIESLAND; BALLOCH; BARRHEAD; BEARSDEN; DUMBARTON; ERSKINE; GOVAN; GREENOCK; HILLINGTON; JOHNSTONE; LINWOOD; MILNGAVIE; PAISLEY; PARTICK; PORT GLASGOW; RENFREW; SILVERBURN

ALEXANDRIA; BALLOCH; DRUMCHAPEL; DUMBARTON; MILNGAVIE;

KILSYTH ALEXANDRIA;

BALLOCH

AVENUE AT MEARNS;

BLANTYRE;

CAMBUSLANG;

CLARKSTON;

HAMILTON;

KINGSGATE RETAIL PARK;

LARKHALL;

RUTHERGLEN;

STRATHAVEN

SHETTLESTON AIRDRIE; ALEXANDRIA; ANNIESLAND; AVENUE AT MEARNS; BAILLIESTON; BARRHEAD; BEARSDEN; BELLSHILL; BIGGAR;

BISHOPBRIGGS;

BLANTYRE;

BRAEHEAD SHOPPING CENTRE; CAMBUSLANG;

CARLUKE; CASTLEMILK;

CLARKSTON;CLYDEBANK;

COATBRIDGE;CUMBERNAULD;

DARNLEY;DRUMCHAPEL;

DUMBARTON;EAST KILBRIDE;

EASTERHOUSE;ERSKINE;

FARADAY RETAIL PARK; FORGE SHOPPING CENTRE;GLASGOW FORT; GOVAN; GREENOCK; HAMILTON; HILLINGTON;

JOHNSTONE; KILSYTH;

KINGSGATE RETAIL PARK;

KIRKINTILLOCH; LANARK;

LARKHALL; LINWOOD;

MARYHILL SHOPPING CENTRE; MILNGAVIE;

MOTHERWELL; PAISLEY;

PARTICK; PORT GLASGOW;

RENFREW; ROBROYSTON;

RUTHERGLEN; SHAWLANDS;

SHETTLESTON; SILVERBURN; SPRINGBURN; STRATHAVEN;

TORYGLEN; UDDINGSTON; WISHAW

BAILLIESTON;

EASTERHOUSE;

UDDINGSTON;

PORT GLASGOW

BIGGAR;

BLANTYRE;

CARLUKE;

EAST KILBRIDE;

LANARK;

LARKHALL;

MOTHERWELL;

STRATHAVEN;

UDDINGSTON;

WISHAW

BIGGAR;

LANARK

BELLSHILL;

MOTHERWELL;

WISHAW

BARRHEAD;

JOHNSTONE;

LINWOOD

AVENUE AT MEARNS;

DARNLEY;

SHAWLANDS;

SILVERBURN

Centres which attract expenditure equal or greater to 10% from other centres.

64

Appendix D: Bulky Goods

Dominant bulky goods catchments: West and North West

Dominant bulky goods catchments: Centre

65

Dominant bulky goods catchments: South

Dominant bulky goods catchments: East

66

Appendix E: Convenience Goods

Convenience Goods Rankings.

Store Location Shopping Population Catchment Population ASDA TORYGLEN 48,103 293,460 ASDA HAMILTON 46,428 449,069 ASDA LINWOOD 39,911 308,931 ASDA GOVAN 38,714 449,252 ASDA CLYDEBANK 38,259 225,266 TESCO-EXTRA SILVERBURN 37,606 528,237 ASDA MOTHERWELL 35,988 241,539 ASDA FORGE PARKHEAD 34,611 238,400 ASDA COATBRIDGE 33,719 214,867 ASDA DUMBARTON 33,550 195,306 TESCO GREENOCK 32,588 200,905 TESCO-EXTRA ST ROLLOX 28,081 303,804 ASDA TRYST ROAD, GLASGOW 27,823 310,267 ASDA ROBROYSTON 26,614 243,819 TESCO-EXTRA FARADAY R P , COATBRIDGE 26,369 316,353 SAINSBURY'S BRAEHEAD S C 25,277 560,673 SAINSBURY'S EAST KILBRIDE S C 25,049 302,494 MORRISONS CROW ROAD, GLASGOW 24,886 328,155 ASDA NEWTON MEARNS 24,560 193,610 ASDA CLYDEVIEW, BLANTYRE 24,048 288,383 ASDA BEARSDEN 22,857 227,493 MORRISONS RIVERFORD ROAD, GLASGOW 22,840 227,093 TESCO-EXTRA CUMBERNAULD 22,558 205,951 ASDA BISHOPBRIGGS 21,444 164,266 SAINSBURY'S DARNLEY 21,377 334,344 TESCO-EXTRA SHETTLESTON 21,329 238,090 SAINSBURY'S HAMILTON 20,937 403,949 MORRISONS AIRDRIE 20,464 176,765 ASDA SUMMERSTON, GLASGOW 19,663 135,591 TESCO MILNGAVIE 18,776 152,637 MORRISONS EAST KILBRIDE 17,987 121,072 MORRISONS JOHNSTONE 16,819 91,194 TESCO-EXTRA WISHAW 16,526 187,268 TESCO NORTH VENNEL 16,337 123,090 MORRISONS BELLSHILL 16,176 144,147 MORRISONS HAMILTON 15,802 262,382 MORRISONS DUMBARTON 15,471 124,858 SAINSBURY'S DRUMCHAPEL 14,281 244,969 MORRISONS PAISLEY 14,254 185,562 TESCO-EXTRA PORT GLASGOW 13,919 216,499 TESCO MARYHILL 13,513 143,014 TESCO CUMBERNAULD 12,657 71,896 MORRISONS EAST KILBRIDE 12,650 130,213 MORRISONS PARTICK 12,644 137,735 MORRISONS CAMBUSLANG 12,616 138,648 MORRISONS GREENOCK 12,217 123,307 TESCO RENFREW 11,763 211,459 MORRISONS CARDONALD 11,607 69,740 MORRISONS WISHAW 11,449 141,069 TESCO BARRHEAD 11,072 107,554 SAINSBURY'S KIRKINTILLOCH 10,985 141,160 ASDA NEWMAINS 10,738 159,843 MORRISONS PAISLEY 10,348 62,534 MORRISONS BAILLIESTON 10,084 114,723

67

Convenience Retail Market Share by Retailer: West and Northwest

Convenience Retail Market Share by Retailer: Centre

68

Convenience Retail Market Share by Retailer: South

Convenience Retail Market Share by Retailer: East

69

Convenience Retail Coverage and Competition: West and Northwest

Convenience Retail Coverage and Competition: Centre

70

Convenience Retail Coverage and Competition: South

Convenience Retail Coverage and Competition: East

71

Appendix F: Town Centre Role and Function

Retail Housing Business and Employment

Access (car) Access (public transport)

Leisure and Entertainment

Sport and Recreation

Cultural and Heritage

Civic and Community

1 Bottom 20%

No housing or decline

No business or employment

Local road network access only

No rail, limited bus service; bottom 20% by generalised cost of travel

No leisure and entertainment provision

No sports and recreation provision

No cultural or heritage offer

No civic or community role

2 20% to 40%

Limited existing housing, no planned development

Limited business or employment

Local road network access only, potential for car parking and trunk road access

No rail, adequate bus service; 20% to 40% by generalised cost of travel

Some limited provision

Some sports and recreation provision (eg outdoor only)

Limited cultural or heritage offer

Some civic or community function (primary school)

3 40% to 60%

Some planned development, non strategic

Some business or employment

Trunk road network access, potential for car parking

Rail halt, adequate bus service; 40% to 60% by generalised cost of travel

Modest provision: bars, restaurants, cafes

Modest provision (outdoor and indoor sports, green spaces)

Modest cultural or heritage offer

Modest civic or community function (secondary school, council office, library, health centre, police and justice)

4 60% to 80%

Strategic development, Community Growth Area

Major Investment Location/ SIBL/ SBC/ CEDA

Trunk road network access, car parking

Rail station or subway station, adequate bus station; 60% to 80% by generalised cost of travel

Day and evening economy, theatre, cinema, bars, restaurants

Swimming, outdoor and indoor sports facilities, green spaces

Significant cultural and heritage offer (museums, galleries, monuments)

Significant function (college/university, council, hospital, administrative)

5 Top 20%

City Centre City Centre Motorway/Trunk Road Access

City Centre – local and national rail, bus, subway; 80% by generalised cost of travel

City Centre City Centre City Centre City Centre

Appendix G: References

1 British Retail Consortium (2006) and Scottish Retail Consortium (2010). 2 Glasgow Economic Facts, February 2010. 3 Floorspace in Glasgow, 2003 to 2013, from Glasgow Retail Factsheet

http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/en/AboutGlasgow/Factsheets/Glasgow/Retail.htm 4 Retail Expenditure Guide 2009-2010, Pitney Bowes, Table 3.2. 5 Retail Expenditure Guide 2009-2010, Pitney Bowes, Table 5.2.

6 Research Study on the Effectiveness of NPPG8:Town Centres and Retailing, Scottish Executive, January 2004

7 GCVDSPA HNDA population projections A and C. 8 Average of growth rates at references 4 and 5 above.

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Planning AuthorityLower ground floor, 125 West Regent Street, Glasgow G2 2SAt 0141 229 7730 | e info@gcvsdpa.gov.uk | w www.gcvsdpa.gov.uk