bpa, public power and the sixth power plan · bpa, public power and the sixth power plan march 17...

BPA, Public Power and the Sixth Power Plan

March 17 ▪ 9:45 amMultnomah/Holladay Room

NorthwestPower andConservation

CouncilSlide 2

The 6The 6thth Power PlanPower Plan. . . and You. . . and You

Tom EckmanTom EckmanManager, Conservation ResourcesManager, Conservation Resources

Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilNorthwest Power and Conservation Council

BPA Utility Energy Efficiency SummitBPA Utility Energy Efficiency SummitMarch 17, 2010March 17, 2010


CouncilSlide 3

Now Playing!Now Playing!

Guaranteed to Make Your Life More Guaranteed to Make Your Life More Interesting!Interesting!

1

But First . . . WhatBut First . . . What’’s Happened s Happened Since We Last Left Our HeroSince We Last Left Our Hero’’ss

Karen

Mike W.

JoshMike R.

“Cap’n” Tom

Public Power

…… and of courseand of course


CouncilSlide 5

The Region Has Exceeded the The Region Has Exceeded the 55thth PlanPlan’’s Targets Every Years Targets Every Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(Projected)

Annual Savi

ngs

(MW

a) 5th Plan Goals

Actual Savings

Mr. Toad* Is Riding The Longest Sustained Mr. Toad* Is Riding The Longest Sustained Period of Utility Conservation Program Savings Period of Utility Conservation Program Savings

in Three Decadesin Three Decades

0

50

100

150

200

250

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Conse

rvation A

cquis

itio

ns

(Ave

rage M

W)

See: “Mr. ToadMr. Toad’’s Wild Rides Wild Ride”” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Toad's_Wild_Ride

Energy Efficiency Is The Energy Efficiency Is The RegionRegion’’s Third Largest Resources Third Largest Resource

Energy Efficiency12%

Hydro55%

Coal18%

Biomass1%Wind

1%Nuclear

4%Natural Gas

9%Petroleum & Pet

Coke0%

We’re Saving The Annual Firm Energy Output of Two Grand Coulee Dams


CouncilSlide 8

So So WhatWhat’’s s Next?Next?

Energy Efficiency is Still the Cheapest OptionEnergy Efficiency is Still the Cheapest Option

Assumptions : Efficiency Cost = Average Cost of All Conservation in Draft 6th Power Plan Under $100 MWhTransmission cost & losses to point of LSE wholesale delivery2020 service - no federal investment or production tax creditsBaseload operation (CC - 85%CF, Nuclear 87.5% CF, SCPC 85%)Medium NG and coal price forecast (6th Plan draft)6th Plan draft mean value CO2 cost (escalating, $8 in 2012 to $47 in 2029).

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

Energy

Effic

iency

Geothe

rmal

Combin

ed C

ycle

Col. Bas

in Wind

AB Wind

Advan

ced N

uclea

r

Superc

ritica

l Coa

l (No C

SS)IG

CC (No C

SS)

Recipr

ocati

ng Eng

ine

Wood R

esidu

e (No C

HP)MT W

indWY W

ind

CSP Parabo

lic Trou

ghUtilit

y Pho

tovolt

aic

Leve

lized

Life

cycl

e C

ost (

2006

$/M

Wh)

Emission (CO2) costTransmission & LossesSystem IntegrationPlant costs

ThereThere’’s Still s Still ““Mass QuantitiesMass Quantities””6th Plan Technically Achievable Conservation Potential by Sector6th Plan Technically Achievable Conservation Potential by Sector

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

< 0 <20 <40 <60 <80 <100 <120 <140 <160 <180 <200

Real Levelized Cost (2006$/MWh)

Tec

hnic

allly

Ach

ieva

ble

Pote

nti

al (

Ave

rage

Meg

awat

ts)

Utility DistributionAgricultureIndustrialCommercialConsumer ElectronicsResidential


CouncilSlide 11

How Much More Efficiency Should We Develop?

Council Uses Council Uses ““Gump ModelGump Model””

The FutureThe Future’’s Like A Box of Chocolates. s Like A Box of Chocolates.

You Never Know What YouYou Never Know What You’’re Gonna Getre Gonna Get..

Council IRP Analysis=> Council IRP Analysis=> Test Lots of ChocolatesTest Lots of Chocolates

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0.8%1.

0%1.

3%1.

5%1.

8%2.

0%2.

3%2.

5%2.

8%3.

0%3.

3%3.

5%3.

8%4.

0%

Annual Load Growth

Pro

babili

ty (

%)

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2010 2015 2020 2025

Natural Gas Prices

2006$/M

MBtu

Efficient Frontier

$123,000

$123,500

$124,000

$124,500

$125,000

$125,500

$126,000

$126,500

$77,000 $77,500 $78,000 $78,500 $79,000

NPV System Cost (2006$billions)N

PV S

yste

m R

isk

(2006$bill

ions)

Wholesale Market Electricity Price

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2010 2015 2020 2025

2006$/M

WH

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

Hydrosystem Ouput

Cap

acity

(MW

)

Resource Supply Curve

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

245 514 1598 2202 2560 3444 4934 6735 8945

Cumulative Supply (MW)

Real Le

veliz

ed C

ost

(C

ents

/kW

h -

2000$)

Portfolio Portfolio Analysis Analysis ModelModel

Carbon Price

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

2010 2015 2020 2025

2006$/T

on

Portfolio ABCD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

$50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225

NPV System Cost (billion2006$)

Freq

uen

cy


CouncilSlide 14

Portfolio Analysis on Portfolio Analysis on OneOne SlideSlide

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

MWa

2006

$/M

Wh

Coal ConservationGasRenewablesNuclear

Generic coal, gas and nuclear units are shown at typical project sizes - more units could be built at comparable cost.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

MWa

2006

$/M

Wh

Coal ConservationGasRenewablesNuclear

Generic coal, gas and nuclear units are shown at typical project sizes - more units could be built at comparable cost.


CouncilSlide 15

15

Sixth Plan Resource Portfolio*Sixth Plan Resource Portfolio*

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2009 2014 2019 2024

Cum

ula

tive

Res

ourc

e (

Ave

rage

Meg

awat

ts)

NG SingleCycleDemandResponseSimple-CycleGasCombined-Cycle GasRenewables

Efficiency

*Expected Value Build Out. Actual build out schedule depends on future conditions

66thth Plan Conservation GoalsPlan Conservation Goals1200 aMW Over Five Years1200 aMW Over Five Years

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ann

ual A

cqui

stio

ns (a

MW

)

Lost-Opportunity Discretionary Historical Achievements (Utility/NEEA Programs)


CouncilSlide 17

Reaction to CouncilReaction to Council’’s 1st Plans 1st Plan’’s s Conservation Goal Was Conservation Goal Was ““MixedMixed””

Reaction To 6Reaction To 6thth Plan Goal Doubling of Plan Goal Doubling of Efficiency Savings Over Next Decade Was Efficiency Savings Over Next Decade Was

Front Page News!Front Page News!

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2010 2015 2020

Annual Savi

ngs

(MW

a)

Plan Goals

Historical Savings


CouncilSlide 19

66thth Plan Goal 1:Plan Goal 1:Meet 90% of Load Growth with Meet 90% of Load Growth with

ConservationConservation

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ave

rage M

egaw

att

s

PNW Load w/o Conservation

PNW Loads w/Conservation


CouncilSlide 20

66thth Plan Goal 2:Plan Goal 2:Meet 22% of Load Growth with Meet 22% of Load Growth with

Wind & Other Renewable ResourcesWind & Other Renewable Resources

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ave

rage M

egw

att

s

PNW Load w/o Conservation

PNW Loads w/Conservation

PNW Loads w/Conservation & Renewables

You CanYou Can’’t Meet More Than 100% t Meet More Than 100% of Load Growth!of Load Growth!

What?What?

Meeting more than 100% of load growth withMeeting more than 100% of load growth withenergy efficiency and renewable resourcesenergy efficiency and renewable resourcesdisplaces existing carbondisplaces existing carbon--based generationbased generation

Why We Must:Why We Must:


CouncilSlide 23

Meeting These Goals Drops Carbon Emissions Meeting These Goals Drops Carbon Emissions 15% Below 1990 Levels by 202015% Below 1990 Levels by 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2015 2020 2025

CO

2 E

mss

ions

(tons)

6th Plan Average Emissions (Resource Based)1990 Emissions


CouncilSlide 24

So Yeah See, So Yeah See, YouYou’’re On A Mission from Godre On A Mission from God


CouncilSlide 25

Meeting 6Meeting 6thth Plan Goal Will Require 2X Plan Goal Will Require 2X –– 3X 3X

Increase Investments in Energy EfficiencyIncrease Investments in Energy Efficiency

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Regio

nal U

tilit

y/SBC

Inve

stm

ent

(Mill

ion 2

006$)


CouncilSlide 26

Meeting 6Meeting 6thth Plan Goal Will Reduce Reliance on Plan Goal Will Reduce Reliance on More Expensive ResourcesMore Expensive Resources

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Regio

nal R

eve

nue R

equir

em

ent

(Mill

ion 2

006$)

Cumulative Conservation Cost/Expenses

Cumulative Cost of Equivalent Market Purchases


CouncilSlide 27

In Fact, Meeting the 6In Fact, Meeting the 6thth PlanPlan’’s Goal s Goal Could Reduce Regional Revenue Requirements Could Reduce Regional Revenue Requirements

Below TodayBelow Today’’s Within Four Yearss Within Four Years

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

Cum

mula

tive

Change


CouncilSlide 28

Energy Efficiency Increases Rates But Energy Efficiency Increases Rates But Decreases ConsumersDecreases Consumers’’ BillsBills

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2010 2015 2020 2025

$/M

Wh

and

$/M

onth

(200

6$)

6th Plan RatesNo Conservation Case Rates6th Plan BillsNo Conservation Case Bills

Accomplishing the 6Accomplishing the 6thth PlanPlan’’s s Conservation Goal Will Conservation Goal Will ““StretchStretch”” the the

Columbia RiverColumbia RiverOver the next 20 years Over the next 20 years we can we can stretchstretch the the output of all output of all hydroelectric hydroelectric resources in the PNW resources in the PNW by 50%by 50%

. . .and reduced the and reduced the power systems carbonpower systems carbon--footprint 15% below footprint 15% below 1990 levels1990 levels

BonnevilleJohn Day

The DallesRocky Reach

Grand Coulee

Chief Joseph

McNary


CouncilSlide 30

Conservation Conservation –– Cheap, But Worth It?Cheap, But Worth It?

Any Any Questions?Questions?


CouncilSlide 31

Thanks for Thanks for ListeningListening

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

Achieving 6th Power Plan Targets

Presented by:Karen Meadows, Energy Services Director

BPA Energy Efficiency


33

Energy Efficiency Comes of Age More demands from more places:

– National – EE as part of broad focus on energy & climate– Regional – EE as integral resource for future demand– Local – Consumer pull for EE to manage costs

Historical success sets sites high– 5th Plan target: 700 aMW– 6th Plan target: 1,200 aMW– BPA share: 504 aMW (2010-2014): 2X prior target. 1.5X prior delivery.

Region relying on energy efficiency to meet load growth 58% over next 5 years 85% over next 20 years


34

Since 1978, energy efficiency has made a material difference in the energy consumed in our region.

Source: NW Power and Conservation Council; 1978 - 2008

Power:3.9aGW

Energy Efficiency Comes of Age


35



Power:3.9aGW



36



x 3.2M

CO2:16.2 Metric Tons



37

Starting Assumptions: 5-year Savings Targets - Public Power Share

Sector Total TargetNon-

ProgrammaticMarket

TransformationProgram

Target

Residential 275 38 35 132Commercial 90 22 20 100

Industrial 93 - 19 74Agriculture 20 - - 20

DSEI 26 - - 20Federal - - - 25Total 504 60 73 371

% of Target 100% 12% 14% 74%

Note - Program Target adjusted for achievability.


38

How do we deliver on the targets?

Strong utility, trade ally and NEEA coordination/ partnership

Scale-up existing programs; expand into new Flexible, regional programs Expand marketing efforts Ramp up emerging technology development Enhance RTF efforts – deemed and deemed

calculated measures


39

Residential Strategy Overview

Lighting/Showerheads

2010 2014

Appliances(CW, Ref/freezer, recycling, E-WH)

HVAC (PTCS HP and DHP)

Weatherization(Ins, Windows,

Air sealing)

Multi-Family(Wx, lighting,

HVAC, appliances)

New Homes(EStar, EPS and

NEEM)

Emerging Tech(HPWH, LED,

behavioral change)

132 aMW


40

Commercial Strategy Overview

Future: HVAC,Commissioning,

chains & franchises

Lighting (Trade Ally Network, higher incentives, improved tools)

ES Grocer(Opt-in 3rd party

program)

Kitchens &Hospitality

(New deemed measures)

Small Commercial(Wx, lighting,

HVAC)

Network PowerControls

Emerging Tech(Lighting, HVAC)

100 aMW

2010 2014


41

Industrial Strategy Overview

ESI Data Centers

ESI Energy Mgmt Pilot

(EPM, T&T and HPEM)

Energy Smart Industrial(ESI)

(Small industrial measures, marketing, and technical services)

ESI Water-Wastewater

Green Motors Initiative

Emerging Tech

74 aMW

Custom Projects

2010 2014


42

Agricultural Strategy Overview

Dairies/ Wineries

(new markets)

IrrigationHardware &

Motors

Pump Testing(expansion)

Emerging Tech

20 aMW

Resource Conservation & Development Councils

(Marketing and delivery)

SIS

(SIS light)

2010 2014


43

Residential – consumer electronics, new construction, codes and standards

Commercial – new construction, codes and standards

Industrial – strategic energy management, 25 in10sity challenge, training

Market research & emerging technologies

Market Transformation Strategy


44

Residential: 60+ (CAL 63, DHP 78, PTCS 60) Commercial Trade Ally Network: 101 Energy Smart Grocer: 90 Energy Smart Industrial: 82 Green Motors: 85

Other Regional Program Needs?

Regional Program Utility Participation


45

Enhanced Marketing

New On-line Community, best practices

Off-line community, engagement, information

Customizable marketing materials for programs, technologies and markets


46

Filling the EE Pipeline Of the 5-year targets:

– 60% from measures not yet RTF approved– 20% from emerging technologies

Of the 20-year targets:– 33% from technologies needing research and development– 47% from technologies needing program build-out


47

Filling the EE Pipeline >200 new and emerging technologies in E3T pipeline Research agenda identified for 5-year horizon targeting 111

aMW Accomplishments:

– NW Energy Efficiency Technology Roadmap complete– Regional Energy Efficiency Emerging Technology Framework

established– ReTAC launched by NEEA

R&D:TechnologyInnovation

Emerging Technology:Pilot & Demo

Programs &Mkt. Transformation

Market Intro

EE Savings


48

What Success Looks Like

Not business as usual Strong regional coordination Leveraged market (trade allies, consultants, 3rd parties) Continuous feeding the pipeline Strong local programs Streamlined, flexible, regional programs with choice in

level of service Streamlined M&V = better balance of risk and rigor More deemed calculators & deemed measures Increased knowledge of potential from ground up (CPAs

and field data collection)


49

Best time ever to be in the Business!

Significant drivers pushing EE Consumers demand is high EE is lowest cost resource Achieving EE targets will keep region viable and

keep consumer bills low.AND

As a region – we have the expertise and experience to achieve the targets!


50

Contact

For more information, contact:Karen MeadowsEnergy Services Director, [email protected](503) 230-3463

bpa, public power and the sixth power plan · bpa, public power and the sixth power plan march 17...

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