bondreport · 2020. 9. 30. · bond new york is a broker that supports equal housing opportunity....

B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M

BONDREPORTQTR 3 2020

BONDREPORT QTR 3 2020


© 2020 BOND New York. All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawals without notice. All property information, including but not limited to, square footage and number of bedrooms, is approximate. Exact measurements should be verified by your own attorney, architect, engineer, or zoning expert. BOND New York is a broker that supports Equal Housing Opportunity.

All source material for the BOND Report is provided by Urban Digs, Online Residential (OLR), and BOND New York’s proprietary listings database. This material is believed to be accurate, however is subject to errors and omissions.

WELCOME TO THE 28TH EDITION OF THE BOND REPORTUnprecedented. Unbelievable. Un-everything. The COVID-19 pandemic fueled the shut down of our city and the real estate market came to a standstill. We saw numbers not seen in a decade: the lowest number of contracts signed in a decade and the longest number of days on the market in a decade. New York City was declared dead.

When we first created our market report, in addition to presenting the data on sold properties (average and median pricing, number of properties sold), we wanted to show what we believed was the closest we could get to current market behavior. The data on sold properties typically reflects market behavior from three months before, due to the timing involved in closing a sale in NYC.

The pending sales and active listings show us what is happening now. So does the median number of days properties are sitting on the market. These are the real estate market’s proverbial pulse. And they aren’t dead. The quarter started with a continuation of the free fall in pending sales we saw in the previous quarter. In mid-July, two weeks into the third quarter, we hit rock bottom, with a record low number of contracts signed. But then the numbers started to rise again. And they steadily increased throughout the rest of the quarter, up 15% from the start of the quarter. The median number of days on market hit its peak at the start of the third quarter at 116 days. By the end of the quarter, it was 65. And while at this moment there is considerably more supply than there is demand, the choices for buyers, particularly in the resale market, is tremendous.

There is movement. It‘s not enough to call it a return to normal, or even a rebound. However it is enough to put us on the road to recovery -- and enough to suggest our city, battle worn and weary, is finding its way back.

In this current climate, we understand that there is no set path to navigating the market. From where we stand, as experts in our industry, we see plenty of opportunities for buyers and sellers and even renters looking to purchase for the first time. We understand that each real estate transaction is a personal journey that requires evaluating both immediate circumstances and the future. We are here to help. Contact us and we’ll guide you through the process utilizing every resource we have at our disposal to help you make those big decisions.



MARKET OVERVIEWWhile the BOND Report presents a traditional historical snapshot of the market, we first present two charts indicating pending sales (all listings in contract) versus active listings (all available inventory) for both year-over-year and within Quarter 3, 2020. The data compares sales volume amidst real-time inventory trends and offers the best indication of the current state of the market. It also informs us of where the market is heading.

Marketwide, pending sales were down 27.60% compared to this time last year and up 17.61% since the start of the quarter, suggesting the market is gaining some momentum since July. Within Quarter 3, 2020, the market increased the number of pending sales consistently, starting at 1,539 and ending the quarter at 1,810. The number of pending sales in new and recent development was down 34.9% compared to the prior year. The number of pending resales was down 19.1% compared to the prior year.

Marketwide, supply was up 23.24% compared to this time last year. Within Quarter 3, 2020, supply was up 46.50%. Supply levels were in the mid-6,000 range at the start of the Quarter and climbed steadily and steeply to 9,231 at the end of the quarter, reflecting new record levels of available inventory. The number of active listings in the new and recent development submarket was down 9.0% compared to the prior year. The number of active listings in the resale submarket was up 28.2% compared to the prior year.

Market Trends September 2019 - September 2020Pending Sales -27.60% and Active Listings +23.24%

Active Listings: +23.24%Pending Sales: -27.60%

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MONTHLY CONTRACT ACTIVITY

25.1% FROM LAST MONTH

14.3% FROM LAST YEAR

Active Listings: + 46.50%Pending Sales: +17.61%

BONDREPORT

EXISTING RESALE MARKET

ACTIVE LISTINGS 28.2% FROM LAST YEAR

PENDING SALES 19.1% FROM LAST YEAR

Source: UrbanDigs.comPercentages are rounded.

NEW & RECENT DEV MARKET

ACTIVE LISTINGS 9.0% FROM LAST YEAR

PENDING SALES 34.9% FROM LAST YEAR

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Market Trends Within Quarter 3, 2020Pending Sales +17.61% and Active Listings + 46.50%


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Days on Market September 2019 - September 2020

QTR 3 2020 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2020 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2019Properties Sold 1,105 -33.39% 1,659 -56.75% 2,555

Pending Sales 1,810 +17.92% 1,535 -32.01% 2,662

Avg Price $1,667,715 +34.55% $1,239,499 +0.83% $1,654,011

Median Price $1,050,000 +8.36% $969,000 +2.94% $1,020,000

Avg Price Per Sq Ft $1,439 0.00% $1,439 +0.70% $1,429

The average price marketwide was $1,667,715, up 34.55% quarter-over-quarter, and showing a less than 1% increase year-over-year. The median sales price marketwide for Quarter 3, 2020 was $1,050,000, up 8.36% quarter-over-quarter, and up 2.94% year-over-year.

Marketwide, the median number of days a property stayed on the market showed a significant decrease since the start of Quarter 3, 2020 until the end, reflecting a steady increased pace of the market overall. At the start of the quarter, the median number of days a property stayed on the market was 116. At the end of the quarter, the median number of days a property stayed on the market was 65, down 25.3% compared to this time last year.

LOOKING BACK

Source: UrbanDigs.comPercentages are rounded.B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M

APR JUNMAY

Days on Market Within Quarter 3, 2020

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INWOOD/WASHINGTON HEIGHTS

+60.00%

MORNINGSIDE HEIGHTS/HARLEM

+ 20.00%

HAMILTON HEIGHTS

+15.38%

UPPER WEST SIDE

+13.87%

EAST HARLEM

+6.67%

UPPER EAST SIDE

+8.13%

CHELSEA

+69.35%

MIDTOWN EAST/CENTER

-12.6%

WEST VILLAGE

-20.34%

MURRAY HILL

+5.66%

TRIBECA

-20.00%

GRAMERCY/FLATIRON

+5.80%

BATTERY PARK CITY

+120.00%

LOWER EAST SIDE

+146.67%

FINANCIAL DISTRICT/CIVIC CENTER

+13.64%

BOND HEAT INDEXCHANGE IN PENDING SALES WITHIN 3RD QUARTER 2020

EAST VILLAGE

+46.43%

MIDTOWN SOUTH

-72.73%KIPS BAY

-8.11%

SOHO

+20.00% NOLITA

-75.00%

GREENWICH VILLAGE

+25.81%

For a more in-depth analysis of your neighborhood, contact your BOND agent today.



A CLOSER LOOK

BATTERY PARK CITYDays on Market..........107Pending Sales ...........22Active Listings.............107 Active-to-Pending Ratio..4.86

LOWER EAST SIDEDays on Market..........154Pending Sales ...........37Active Listings.............124Active-to-Pending Ratio..3.35

CHELSEADays on Market..........58Pending Sales ...........105Active Listings.............524 Active-to-Pending Ratio..4.99

LARGEST INCREASE

Lower East Side, Battery Park City, and Chelsea showed the largest percentage increase with respect to the number of pending sales for Quarter 3, 2020. The active-to-pending ratio for the Lower East Side was 3.35, the active-to-pending ratio for Battery Park City was 4.86, and the active-to-pending ratio for Chelsea was 4.99. Nolita, Midtown South, and Midtown East/Center showed the largest decrease in the number of pending sales. The active-to-pending ratio for Nolita was 23, the active-to-pending ratio for Midtown South was 26 and the active-to-pending ratio for Midtown East/Center was 16.5.

NOLITADays on Market..........37Pending Sales ...........1Active Listings.............23 Active-to-Pending Ratio..23

MIDTOWN SOUTHDays on Market..........88Pending Sales ...........3Active Listings.............78Active-to-Pending Ratio..26

LARGEST DECREASE

MIDTOWN EAST/CENTERDays on Market..........110Pending Sales ...........24Active Listings.............396 Active-to-Pending Ratio..16.5



MARKET SNAPSHOT

CLOSED SALESBY SIZE

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

CLOSED SALESBY SIZE

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER

CLOSED SALESBY PROPERTY TYPE

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER

CLOSED SALESBY PROPERTY TYPE

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

42%58%

CO-OP

QUARTER 3 2020 QUARTER 3 2019

CONDO

58%

CO-OP

QUARTER 3 2020 QUARTER 2 2020

CONDO


56%

CO-OP CONDO

44% 42%56%

CO-OP CONDO

44%

QTR 3 2020QTR 3 2019

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50%

STUDIOS 1 BEDS 2 BEDS 3+ BEDS

QTR 3 2020QTR 2 2020

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35%


13% 15

%

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36% 37

%

37%

26%

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8% 7% 6%6% 5% 4%

MARKET SNAPSHOT

MONTHLY CONTRACTACTIVITY BY SIZE SHARE

MONTHLY NEW SUPPLYBY SIZE

MEDIAN LISTING DISCOUNTFROM LAST MONTH

CLOSED SALES BY PRICE CATEGORY

STUDIOS 1 BEDS

3+ BEDS

2 BEDS


11% 38%

19%31%

QTR 3 2020 QTR 2 2020 QTR 3 2019

$0 - $500K $500K - $1M $1M - $2M $2M - $3M $3M - $5M $5M+

10.1%UP

BONDREPORT QTR 3 2020CONDO MARKET MATRIX

Oct

The average condo price for Quarter 3, 2020, was $2,465,012, down 2.59% quarter-over-quarter and up 6.72% year-over-year. The median condo price for Quarter 3, 2020 was $1,651,720, up 6.49% quarter-over-quarter and up 13.52% year-over-year. By size, the median price for a one-bedroom condo showed the largest decrease in price (12.48%) year-over-year. The median price for a one-bedroom condo in Quarter 3, 2020 was $940,800. By size, two-bedrooms showed the largest increase in median price (11.26%) quarter-over-quarter. The median price for a two-bedroom condo in Quarter 3, 2020 was $3,640,000.

Active condo listings were up 16.51% compared to this time last year and up 35.92% compared to the start of the quarter. Condo supply has been steadily increasing since May and reached its highest levels at the end of Quarter 3, 2020 at 4,355, the highest available condo inventory recorded in the last 10 years.

Pending condo sales were down 27.27% compared to this time last year and up 25.94% since the start of the quarter. Pending condo sales reached their lowest levels recorded in the last 10 years at the start of Quarter 3, 2020 before steadily climbing throughout the quarter. The number of pending condo sales at the end of Quarter 3, 2020 was 704, well below what we would expect to see this time of year.

CONDO SALES

QTR 3 2020 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2020 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2019Avg Price $2,465,012 -2.59% $2,530,589 +6.72% $2,309,865

Median Price $1,651,720 +6.49% $1,551,013 +13.52% $1,455,000

Avg Price Per Sq Ft $1,606 -1.57% $1,632 -0.05% $1,607

Studio (median) $665,000 +9.92% $605,000 +4.72% $635,000

1 Bedroom (median) $940,800 -4.00% $980,000 -12.48% $1,075,000

2 Bedroom (median) $2,025,000 +11.26% $1,820,000 +5.19% $1,925,000

3+ Bedroom (median) $3,640,000 +7.06% $3,400,000 -11.22% $4,100,000


Active Listings: +35.92%Pending Sales: +25.94%

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19.1% FROM LAST YEAR

Closed Condo Sales By Size Quarter-Over-Quarter

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Condo September 2019 - September 2020Pending Sales -27.27% and Active Listings +16.51%

Condo Within Quarter 3, 2020Pending Sales +25.94% and Active Listings +35.92%

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BONDREPORT QTR 3 2020CO-OP MARKET MATRIX

CO-OP SALESCo-op September 2019 - September 2020

Pending Sales-27.84% and Active Listings +31.36%


QTR 3 2020 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2020 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2019Avg Price $1,214,224 +1.96% $1,190,897 +3.06% $1,178,124

Median Price $800,000 +4.30% $767,000 -0.45% $803,595

Avg Price Per Sq Ft $1,011 +0.35% $1,008 -3.53% $1,048

Studio (median) $425,000 -9.57% $470,000 -2.30% $435,000

1 Bedroom (median) $525,000 -22.22% $675,000 -26.68% $716,000

2 Bedroom (median) $1,175,000 -9.62% $1,300,000 -6.00% $1,250,000

3+ Bedroom (median) $2,450,000 +20.99% $2,025,000 +12.64% $2,175,000

The average price for a co-op in Quarter 3, 2020 was $1,214,224, up 1.96% quarter-over-quarter and up 3.06% year-over-year. The median price for a co-op in Quarter 3, 2020 was $800,000, up 4.30% quarter-over-quarter, and showing a less than one percent change year-over-year. By size, one-bedroom co-ops showed the largest and most significant decrease in median price. The median price for a one-bedroom co-op in Quarter 3, 2020 was $525,000, down 22.22% quarter-over-quarter and down 26.68% year-over-year. Three-bedroom co-ops showed the largest increase in median price in Quarter 3, 2020. The median price for a three-bedroom was $2,450,000, up 20.99% quarter-over-quarter, and up 12.64% year-over-year.

The number of active co-op listings was up 31.36% compared to this time last year and up 59.86% within Quarter 3, 2020. Supply has been climbing steadily since May, showing the largest increase at the end of the quarter at 4,604, a record high in the last 10 years.

The number of pending sales for Quarter 3, 2020 was down 27.84% compared to this time last year and up 12.76% since the start of the quarter. The start of Quarter 3, 2020 saw the lowest number of pending sales recorded in 10 years at 1,078 before consistently climbing throughout the quarter.

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9.9% FROM LAST YEAR


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QTR 3 2020QTR 2 2020

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Closed Co-op Sales By Size Quarter-Over-Quarter

Active Listings: +59.86%Pending Sales: +12.76%

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Co-op Within Quarter 4, 2020Pending Sales +12.76% and Active Listings +59.86%



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CONDO CO-OP

The luxury market is defined at the top 10% of all co-op and condo sales transactions marketwide. For Quarter 3, 2020, the threshold for the luxury submarket was $3,775,000. The average luxury price was $10,535,120, up 46.36% quarter-over-quarter and up 64.82% year-over-year. The median price for the luxury submarket in Quarter 3, 2020 was $5,400,000, an increase of 9.09% quarter-over-quarter and an increase of 20.67% year-over-year. Legacy contracts from properties such as 220 Central Park South continue to impact these numbers. In the $5-10 million luxury submarket, the number of pending condo sales was down 37.3% compared to last year, while active listings increased 9.0%. In the over $10 million luxury condo sales market, the number of pending sales was down 63.6% compared to this time last year. Active listings were down 10.3% year-over-year.

$10+MILLION

PENDING / ACTIVEPENDING / ACTIVE

Pending Sales: -37.3% From Last YearActive Listings: +9.0% From Last Year

Pending Sales: -22.2% From Last YearActive Listings: -5.4% From Last Year

CONDO

CO-OP



CONDO

CO-OP

$5-10MILLION

LUXURY MARKET: A VIEW FROM THE TOP


Median Price $5,400,000 +9.09% $4,950,000 +20.67% $4,475,000

Avg Price Per Sq Ft $2,531 +0.36% $2,522 +3.73% $2,440

LUXURY MARKET MATRIX


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CONDO CO-OP



The townhouse market is a unique submarket. It has the fewest number of transactions of all the submarkets with the smallest inventory and the smallest buyer pool. As a result, the properties in the townhouse submarket tend to be based on specific traits of the individual property and not a general set of criteria or market trends. The average townhouse sales price for Quarter 3, 2020 was $6,895,021. The median sales price for a townhouse in Quarter 3, 2020 was $3,950,000.

ACTIVE LISTINGS 20.6% Year To Date 6.2% From Last Month 11.3% From Last Year

PENDING SALES 24.3% Year To Date 7.7% From Last Month 26.3% From Last Year

DAYS ON MARKET 19.8% Year To Date 35.3% From Last Month 24.1% From Last Year

TOWNHOUSE SALES

GREENWICH VILLAGE:

5.3% Year To Date

20.0% From Last Month

12.5% From Last Year

UPPER WEST SIDE:

28.6% Year To Date



UPPER EAST SIDE:

39.0% Year To Date



WEST VILLAGE:

7.1% Year To Date


0.0% From Last Year

EAST VILLAGE:

100.0% Year To Date



ACTIVE TOWNHOUSE LISTINGS


Median Price $3,950,000 -39.23% $6,500,000 -35.56% $6,130,000

Avg Price Per Sq Ft $1,100 -28.67% $1,542 -64.99% $3,142

TOWNHOUSE MARKET MATRIX




Marketwide, new development supply decreased 10.0% from last year and was up 9.4% since the start of the year. The number of new development pending sales decreased 32.2% since last year and decreased 11.7% since the start of the year. In the last month, the number of pending new development sales increased 42.3%.

1,119 9.4% Year To Date 0.9% From Last Month 10.0% From Last Year

249 11.7% Year To Date 42.3% From Last Month 32.2% From Last Year

168

51

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NEW DEVELOPMENT

STUDIO STUDIO


2.5% 11.1% 13.7%

19.2% 3.0% 4.6% 1.2%

18.4% 22.6% 3.1% 9.3%

Year To Date

From Last Month

From Last Year

Year To Date

From Last Month

From Last Year

Year To Date

From Last Month

From Last Year

Year To Date

From Last Month

From Last Year

Year To Date

From Last Month

From Last Year

Year To Date

From Last Month

From Last Year

Year To Date

From Last Month

From Last Year

Year To Date

From Last Month

From Last Year

3.1%

ONE BEDROOM

ONE BEDROOM

TWO BEDROOM

TWO BEDROOM

THREE+ BEDROOM

THREE+ BEDROOM

STUDIO

STUDIO

MANHATTAN SUPPLY

MANHATTAN PENDING SALES MANHATTAN MONTHLY CONTRACT ACTIVITY

MANHATTAN MONTHLY NEW SUPPLY

8.2% From Last Month 18.3% From Last Year

21.5% From Last Month 28.2% From Last Year

MANHATTAN PENDING SALES BY SIZE

MANHATTAN SUPPLY BY SIZE

71.4%

0.0%

29.4%

66.7%

17.7%

35.6%

43.1%

13.2%

20.2%

21.1%

31.0%

42.5%

5

1 & 3

2

4

OFFICE LOCATIONS

1677 AMSTERDAM AVENUENEW YORK, NY 10031PHONE: 646-719-1821

UPPER MANHATTAN

853 BROADWAY, 15TH FLOORNEW YORK, NY 10003PHONE: 212-672-6350

UNION SQUARE

810 SEVENTH AVENUE, 39TH FLOORNEW YORK, NY 10019PHONE: 212-582-2009

CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS

324 EAST 86TH STREETNEW YORK, NY 10028PHONE: 212-584-4220

810 SEVENTH AVENUE, 39TH FLOORNEW YORK, NY 10019PHONE: 212-582-2009

UPPER EAST SIDE

MIDTOWN WEST

bondreport · 2020. 9. 30. · bond new york is a broker that supports equal housing opportunity....

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