Bolton 8/23/06

UAV Plans and Trends

Will BoltonSandia National Laboratories

Livermore, CA

Facilities Assessment - Airborne Platforms Sub-CommitteeAugust 28-29, 2006

Boulder, CO

Bolton 8/23/06

Suggested Discussion Topics

• UAV Background• Review of available UAV platforms• Issues in UAV use

AirspaceAccess to aircraft

DoD “Dual use”NOAANASACommercial supplier (manufacturer or 3rd party)

CostOperational experience/insurance

• Trends• Discussion

Bolton 8/23/06

UAV Background

Much of the impetus for UAV development has been military applications

First use of unmanned photo reconnaissance during US Civil War (1863)Significant number of Firebee missions during Vietnam warSubstantial Israeli experience in 1980’sTechnology enabled much improved capabilities starting in about 1990U.S. use increased during Balkans conflict (GA Predators flown from Italy)Dramatic increase following 9/11 in Afghanistan and Iraq

Although more limited, examples of “civilian” applications include:

AeroSonde - developed for atmospheric research (e.g., hurricane measurements) more recently limited use over the North Slope of Alaska and other locations

SeaScan developed for fish spotting (although most applications have been the military SeaEagle version)

Law enforcement (e.g., CyberBug)NASA ERAST development of Pathfinder, Helios, Altair…NASA-funded Altus demonstration flightsNOAA/NASA Altair demonstration flightsDOE ARM-UAV flight campaigns using Gnat 750, Altus I, and Altus II starting in 1993

Eddy’s Surveillance Kite1898

Vietnam era Firebee photo drone InSitu SeaScan

Bolton 8/23/06

Summary of Current UAV Platforms

There are many listings of “current” UAVs -- for example:

http://www.uavforum.com/vehicles/capabilities.htm

http://www.shephard.co.uk/UVonline/UVSpecs.aspx

http://www.aiaa.org/images/PDF/WilsonChart.pdf

Aviation Week & Space Technology, “Aviation Source Book 2006”

Shephard “Unmanned Vehicles, Handbook 2006”

Note that not all of the listed aircraft actually exist!

Bolton 8/23/06

Summary of Current UAV Platforms

Country Primary owner UAV Designation Engine details power (hp) Wt(lb) Payload(lb) Endurance(h) Ceiling(ft) Comments type Devel. Stage Production Operation Span(ft) Comm Radius(nm)Australia Tempest Vindicator 6 cyl 2-cycle, 2.4 liter 105 1,050 200 20 25,000 C Complete 23.1 110Austria C Craft Eyrie Mk 7 496 165 15 15,000 C Complete 16.5 32Belgium IAI B-Hunter 2,100 150 25 20,000 C Complete 50 80Bulgaria Aviotechna Yastreb-25 138 10 4 3,000 C Complete Underway Deployed 11.5 27China BSST Observer 1 22 5 1.2 5,000 C Complete 8.8 3China Xian ASN-206 hs-700 4 cyl, 2-stroke 50 489 110 8 19,600 C Complete Underway Limited 19.7 81China Xian DP-4 RD 309 66 2 9,800 C Complete Underway Limited 14.1 54Croatia RH-ALAN BL-50 117 46 5 5,000 C Complete 13.1 45Croatia RH-ALAN BLS B 84 32 3 5,000 C Complete 13.1 27Czech VTņL STV Sojka III m115j 320 66 2 6,600 C Complete Underway Limited 13.4 54France Aerospatiale Hussard 2 66 18 1 6,600 C Complete 11.5 4France Alcore Chacal 2 4-cyl, 2-stroke 170 40 4 10,000 C Complete 8.7 27France Altec MART Mk II 242 55 4 9,800 C Complete Underway Deployed 11.2 54France Altec S-Mart 318 66 7 9,800 C Underway 11.2 81France CAC Syst¸mes Fox AT2 limbach L 275E piston 265 55 5 11,500 C Complete Underway Deployed 11.8 81France CAC Syst¸mes Fox TX 265 66 5 11,500 C Complete 11.8 81France CAC Syst¸mes K-100 62 11 0.5 9,600 C Underway 8.5 8France Eurodrone Brevel f&s/shrick sf2-350s piston 330 66 3.5 13,000 C Complete Underway 11.2 108France SAGEM Crecerelle 298 77 5 13,100 C Complete Complete Deployed 10.8 49France SAGEM Marula 298 77 5 13,100 Follow-on to Crecerelle C Complete 7.2 54France SAGEM Sperwer/Ugglan 2-stroke 70 573 99 8 16,400 C Complete Underway Limited 13.8 81Germany Dornier DAR 265 154 3 9,800 C Complete Complete Deployed 6.6 81Germany EMT Luna X-200 2-cyl,2-stroke 6.7 68 7 3 2,000 C Underway 13.8 11Germany IAT MK-105 Flash 198 59 3 10,000 C Complete 13.2 27Germany IAT MK-106C Hit 220 50 3 12,000 C Complete 10.5 27Germany STN Atlas Taifun heavy fuel piston 45.6 330 50 4 12,000 C Underway 11.8 54Iran HESA Ababil C Complete Underway DeployedIraq FSPF L-29 7,200 1,200 1 25,000 C Complete 33.8 344Israel BTA Canard 2-stroke 100cc 77 12 6 12000 C Underway 7.9 54Israel BTA Mini Sheddon 55 10 3 12,000 C Complete 9.8 5Israel BTA Sheddon MK3 100cc 2-stroke 90 18 6 15,000 C Complete 13.5 24Israel EAS Crow 287 55 9 15,000 C Complete Limited Limited 16.8 108Israel EAS Vanguard 386 88 16 15,000 C Complete Underway Limited 19.7 108Israel EMIT Blue Horizon wae-342 2-stroke 25 286 77 16 20,000 C Complete Underway Deployed 16.4 50Israel IAI E-Hunter dual 4-stroke, 2-cyl 2,100 150 25 20,000 C Complete 50 80Israel IAI Eye View / Firebird 340 33 6 15,000 C Complete 15.4 27Israel IAI Heron 4-cycle, 4 cyl turbocharged 2,400 550 50 30,000 C Complete 54.5 125Israel IAI Hunter (RQ-5) 1,600 150 11 15,000 Teamed with TRW (prime) C Complete Underway Deployed 29.2 144Israel IAI Scout 350 84 7 15,000 C Complete Deployed 16.3 54Israel IAI Searcher 820 139 14 15,000 C Complete Deployed 23.7 65Israel Silver Arrow Colibri 79 22 1 6,600 C Underway 13.2 27Israel Silver Arrow Hermes 1500 rotax 914 turbocharged 100 3,300 500 36 30,000 C Underway 32.8 108Israel Silver Arrow Micro-V twin piston 100 18 5 15,000 C Complete 11.8 27Italy Meteor Mirach 26 sachs sf-150 piston 463 77 6 11,500 C Complete Complete Deployed 15.5 27Portugal OGMA ARMOR X7 440 110 12 6,600 Teamed with IST C Underway 19.7 216Russia Yakolev Yak-061 Shmel samara/trud p-032 piston 285 60 2 9,800 C Complete Complete Deployed 10.7 27Russia Yakolev Phela / Stroy-P 286 50 2 8,600 C Complete Underway Limited 10.7 54So Africa ATE Vulture wae-342 piston 25 220 55 3 16,400 C Complete Underway Deployed 16.1 32So Africa Kentron RPV-2E Seeker 529 88 8 18,000 C Complete Underway Deployed 23 108Spain INTA ALO 44 13 2 4,900 C Underway 9.9 27Spain INTA Siva 4 cyl, 2-stroke 48 507 66 7 13,120 Teamed with Dornier C Underway 15.8 81Switzerland Oerlikon-ContravesADS-95 Ranger gobler-hirth f-31 piston 595 86 5 14,700 Teamed with IAI C Complete Underway Deployed 18.8 54Taiwan Chung-Shan Inst.Kestrel II limbach L 275E piston 250 60 5 8,000 92 unleaded + 5% oil C Complete Limited 16.5 27Tunisia TAT Annasnas 275 55 14 16,000 C Underway 12.5 54Turkey EES Kirlangic 298 30 8 20,000 C Complete 16.8 81Turkey EES Dogan 364 40 12 20,000 C Complete 19.7 81Turkey EES Firefly 110 10 5 12,000 C Complete 13.8 27UK Cranfield Observer bh88 6.2 20 kg 2 Teamed with DERA and Tasuma C Underway 2.4 mUK Flight Refueling Raven aettow quadra 200cc piston 185 4 14000 Built by Tasuma C Complete 3.6 mUK Marconi Phoenix wae-342 piston 386 110 5 8,000 C Complete Underway Limited 18.1 32UK Tasuma CSV-20 50 cc petrol/oil 2-stroke 20 kg 2 C Complete 2.9 mUK Tasuma CSV-30 22 kg 2 2.75mUK Tasuma MSV-10 4 kg 0.5 C Complete 2.8 mUK TTL Specte II meggit plc 342 cc, 2-cycle,2-cyl 27 320 50 5 13,000 Teamed with Northrop Grumman Ryan C Complete Underway Deployed 10.5 27UK TTL Phantom twin cyl, 75 cc 20stroke 77 18 3 9,800 C Complete 8.2 16USA AAI Shadow 200T herbrandson dyad 290 280 40 4 15,000 Tractor version C Complete 12.8 27USA Alliant Tech Outrider 500 60 6 15,000 Teamed with Mi-Tex C Complete Complete Limited 13 108USA Aurora Perseus B rotax 914 3-stage turbocharge 2,500 110 24 65,000 C Underway 65 200USA BAI Dragon Drone 91 15 2 10,000 Variant of the Exdrone C Complete Underway Limited 8.2 48USA BAI Javelin .061 cu in 2-stroke 20 3 2 1,000 C Complete Limited Limited 8 1USA BAI Porter 200 50 4 5,000 C Complete Complete Limited 12 27USA BAI Tern 150 cc twin cyl, 2-stroke 10 75 30 3 2,000 C Complete Limited Limited 10.2 9USA Daedalus Dakota / Truck 133 50 3 15,000 C Complete Complete Limited 12.7 120USA GA-ASI Altus DT rotax 914 double turbocharged 100 2150 220 24 65,000 One UAV for NASA ERAST C Underway 55.3 300USA GA-ASI Altus ST rotax 914 single turbocharged 100 2150 220 24 45,000 One UAV for DoE / CIRPAS C Complete Complete Limited 55.3 250USA GA-ASI Gnat 1,125 140 40 20,000 C Complete Complete Deployed 35.3 250USA GA-ASI I-Gnat rotax 912 4-stroke turbocharged 80 1,350 200 40 23,000 C Complete Underway Limited 42 250USA GA-ASI Predator (RQ-1A ) rotax 914 turbocharged 2,250 450 40 26,000 C Complete Underway Deployed 48.8 OTHUSA GA-ASI Prowler II diesel 650 50 20 20,000 C Complete Underway Deployed 24 135USA GA-ASI Prowler II rotax 582 2-stroke 650 50 20 20,000 C Complete Underway Deployed 24 135USA AeRA Aerosonde 24 cc fuel injected mogas 28 5 36 13,000 C Complete Underway Limited 9.5 OTHUSA Mi-Tex Backpack super tigre 4.5 25 4 1 5,000 C Underway 3 5USA Mi-Tex Mini Vanguard da-150 piston 17 100 12 3 16,300 C Underway 7 31USA Scaled CompositesRaptor Demonstrator 1,764 75 24 65,000 C Complete 65.8 150USA DRS Unmanned TechnologiesSTM-5B Sentry herbrandson dyad 290 25.5 220 45 6 16,000 C Complete Underway Deployed 11 200USA Thorpe SeeOp P-7180 40 8 2 5,000 Half-Scale Pioneer Trainer C Complete 8.5 5USA Thorpe SeeOp TS-2000 1,000 150 4 5,000 C Complete 27 27Austria Schiebel Camcopter 5.1 145 20 5 2,000 Helicopter V Complete Limited Limited Rotor = 10 10China NUAA Solar Bird 620 40 4 9,800 Helicopter V Complete Rotor = 19 81France CAC Syst¸mes Hˇliot 992 265 2.5 6,700 Helicopter V Complete Limited Limited Rotor = 22 54France Survey-Copter Copter 2 40 10 2 1,600 Helicopter V Complete Rotor = 6.0 3France Techno Sud Vigilant F2000 93 18 1 9,800 Helicopter V Complete Rotor = 6.2 16France Techno Sud Vigilant F 5000 730 220 3.5 6,600 Helicopter V Underway Rotor = 15.7 15Japan Fuji RPH-2 673 175 1 2,000 Helicopter V Complete Limited Limited Rotor = 16 5Japan Kawada RoboCopter 300 1,750 650 1 2,000 Helicopter; with Schweizer V Complete 1Japan Yamaha R-50 148 44 0.5 300 Helicopter V Complete Complete Deployed Rotor = 10 0.1Japan Yamaha R-Max 246 cc liquid cooled, 2-stroke 21 194 66 1.5 6000 Helicopter V Complete Underway Limited Rotor = 10 0.1Russia Kamov Ka-37 550 110 1 9,800 Helicopter V Complete Rotor = 16 3Russia Kamov Ka-137 hirth 2706 r05 piston 65 617 110 4 16,400 Helicopter V Underway Rotor = 17 27South Korea Daewoo ARCH-50 661 110 0.75 8200 Helicopter V Complete Rotor = 16 0.1Sweden Scandicraft APID-3 2-stroke 121 20 4 1,000 Helicopter V Complete Underway Rotor = 9.8 14Sweden TechMent RPG Midget Mk III aerrow 13 2-stroke benzene 132 44 3 2,000 Autogyro V Complete Rotor = 7.8 54UK Aerobotics Sprite 2-cycle 6.7x2 80 13 2 10,000 No Tail; Counter-Rotating Rotors V Underway Rotor = 5.3 15UK Channon Nitro Hawk 1 cyl, 2-stroke 22 5 0.5 1,200 Helicopter V Underway Rotor = 5 5USA Aerocam 23F 20 6 0.5 7,500 Helicopter V Complete Complete Limited Rotor = 5.1 1USA Aerocam 60F 40 20 0.3 7,500 Helicopter V Complete Underway Limited Rotor = 7.7 2USA Dragonfly DP4 quadra-arrow 200 2-stroke 140 30 1 7,000 Helicopter V Complete Underway Limited Rotor =8.5 1USA D-Star D'Humbug d-star diesel 150 25 4 18,000 Rotor-in-Wing V Underway Span = 6.5 27USA Freewing 60-25 75 20 2 5,000 Tilt Wing; with Scaled Composites V Complete Span = 9.8 108USA Freewing 100-50 (Scorpion) rotax 50 383 57 4 15,000 Tilt Wing; with Scaled Composites V Complete Span = 16.1 108USA Northrop Grumman RyanModel 330 1,100 200 5 20,000 Helicopter; with Schweizer V Underway Rotor = 27 110USA SAIC Vigilante hirth f-30 110 1,100 160 8 12,000 Helicopter; with American Sportcopter V Complete Rotor =23 120

Heli 25 75cc 2-stroke 55 2 2000 vtol VHeliot hirth f30a26ak 105 992 2.5 6000 vtol VHorus-SD rotax 914 uk 105 2250 40 25000 CEagle rotax 120 5500 20 20000Mucke 26.8 168 3.5 13000Tilt-body 6-25 recipricating 12 75 2 5000K100 piston 6 60 0.5 6000

Piston

Country Primary owner UAV Designation Engine details power Wt(lb) Payload(lb) Endurance(h) Ceiling(ft) Comments typeDevel. Stage Production Operation Span(ft) Comm Radius(nm)Belgium Thomson-CSF Epervier 324 44 0.5 10,000 C Complete Complete Removed of service 5.7 50Canada Bombardier CL-89 238 40 0.2 10,000 C Complete Complete Deployed 3.1 32Canada Bombardier CL-289 t117 turbojet 650 75 0.5 3,900 Teamed with Dornier C Complete Complete Deployed 4.3 108China BUAA Chang Hong 1 3,750 140 3 57,400 C Complete Deployed 32 200Italy Meteor Mirach 100 617 88 1 29,500 Variant of aerial target C Complete Complete Deployed 5.9 135Italy Meteor Mirach 150 trs 18-1 turbojet 750 110 1 29,500 Follow-on to the Mirach 100 C Complete Underway Limited 8.5 135Russia Tupolev Tu-141 Strizh 13,700 250 1 19,500 C Complete Complete Deployed 12.8 540Russia Tupolev Tu-143 3,060 400 0.2 9,800 C Complete Underway Deployed 7.3 51Russia Tupolev Tu-243 3,100 500 0.4 16,400 C Underway 7.3 97USA Northrop Grumman Ryan BQM-74C 514 173 1 30,000 C Complete Complete Deployed 5.8 200USA Northrop Grumman Ryan Sea Ferret 150 30 3 20,000 C Complete 6 160USA Northrop Grumman Ryan Scarab 2,370 290 2 43,000 C Complete Complete Limited 11 500USA Bostan ACRW 300 15 3 1,000 Rotating Lifting Surface V Underway Wing Dia =5 30France Alcore Chacal 2 replaced 2 stroke piston with jet 166.6 4 3,000USA Aurora AU-009 (UCAV demo)2 amt olympus turbojets 142 500 C Underway 7France Alcore Futura 1xturbojet 45 lb 155 33 1.1 1000 C Underway 6.5

Turbojet

Country Primary owner UAV Designation Engine details power Wt(lb) Payload(lb) Endurance(h) Ceiling(ft) Comments typeDevel. Stage Production Operation Span(ft) Comm Radius(nm)France Aerospatiale Sarohale 11,700 1,100 24 60,000 C Underway 120 OTHUSA Frontier Systems Arrow 14,000 500 36 70,000 C Underway 115.3 120USA Frontier Systems Shadow 3,500 200 12 50,000 C Complete 65 OTHUSA Lockheed Martin DarkStar (RQ-3A) 8,600 800 8 45,000 Teamed with Boeing C Underway 69 OTHUSA Northrop Grumman Global Hawk (RQ-4A ) allison ae3007 turbofan 25,600 1,900 36 65,000 C Complete 116.2 OTHUSA Boeing Dragonfly: Canard/Rotor/Wing turbofan 1,800 200 3 10,000 Stopped Rotor V Underway Rotor = 12 500USA Scaled Composites Proteus (optionally piloted) fj44-2 turbofan 12500 2200 18 65000 C Complete 78.6 OTH

Turbofan

Country Primary owner UAV Designation Engine details Power Wt(lb) Payload(lb) Endurance(h) Ceiling(ft) Comments type Devel. Stage Production Operation Span(ft) Comm Radius(nm)USA Aurora SkyWatch 7,900 900 32 62,000 C Underway 114 250USA GA-ASI Predator B Allied Signal TPE331 2,500 650 24 40,000 C Underway 48.8 OTHIsrael IAI Heron TP 1200 7940 24 45000 CUSA Aurora Theseus B Allied Signal TPE331 10600 10 82000 C 75.5

Turboprop

A partial listing…

Country Primary owner UAV Designation Engine details power Wt(lb) Payload(lb) Endurance(h) Ceiling(ft) Comments type Devel. Stage Production Operation Span(ft) Comm Radius(nm)France Alcore Azimut 14 1 2.5 1,000 shephards has a ceiling of 100ft and endurance of .75 hrs E Complete 11.3 6USA AeroVironment Pointer (FQM-151A) 8 2 0.3 1,000 E Complete Complete Limited 9 4USA CUV SLURS 10 2 1 500 E Underway 5 5USA NRL Flyrt 72 25 0.5 2,000 E Complete Complete Limited 8 4USA NRL Sender 10 3 2 5,000 E Complete Complete Limited 4 50USA NRL Swallow 62 10 2 30,000 E Underway 15 60

Biodrone 1.6 22 1.5 100scout 2000 0.8 6.6 0.5 984

Battery/Electric

Country Primary owner UAV Designation Engine details power Wt(lb) Payload(lb) Endurance(h) Ceiling(ft) Comments type Devel. Stage Production Operation Span(ft) Comm Radius(nm)France Matra Dragon 331 66 2 9,600 C Complete 9.8 27France General Atomics Horus-SD rotary 912 ul 85 2250 40 25000Germany TESTEM Deltron III 150 24 3 13,000 Rotor in Wing V Underway Span = 8.8 27Greece 3 Sigma Nearchos 430 132 8 25,000 C Underway 16.8 54India ADE Nishant 771 132 4 13,100 C Complete Underway Limited 21.3 54Israel IAI Searcher Mk II 940 150 16 18,500 C Complete Underway Deployed 28.1 80Israel Silver Arrow Darter 220 22 4 20,000 C Underway 14 50Israel Silver Arrow Hermes 450S uel 891 rotary 52 992 220 20 20,000 C Complete Underway Limited 34.4 108Israel Silver Arrow Hermes 150 uel 741 rotary 38 6 15000Israel Silver Arrow Sniper 375 55 6 15,000 C Complete 13.8 27So Africa Kentron Lark rotary 38 265 55 4 15,000 C Complete 6.9 54So Korea Daewoo TRPV-1 Doyosae 286 50 3 6,000 C Complete Underway Limited 15.8 27Turkey TAI UAV-X1 norton nr-801 42 540 66 7 15,000 C Complete 19.7 16UK TTL ASR-4 Spectre 242 81 3 17,000 C Complete Underway Deployed 10.8 27USA AAI Shadow 200 ar741 275 50 6 15,000 C Complete 12.8 108USA AAI Shadow 400 ar741 447 5 12000USA AAI Shadow 600 ar-801 600 100 12 17,000 C Complete Limited Limited 22.4 108USA GA-ASI Prowler I 200 50 6 21,000 C Complete 18 140USA BAE Systems R4E SkyEye 1,250 275 12 16,000 C Complete Complete Limited 24 100USA MiTex Hellfox 350 50 8 15,000 C Complete 11 54USA Mi-Tex Vixen 200 50 4 15,000 C Complete 9.2 50USA Northrop Grumman Ryan Starbird 380 50 4 17,000 C Complete 17.3 108USA PUI Pioneer (RQ-2A) sachs sf-150 piston 417 75 5 12,000 C Complete Complete Deployed 16.8 100USA Daedalus STF-9A 220 50 5 20,000 Tilt Wing V Complete Span = 12.7 250USA Orion Seabat 200 50 4 10,000 Tail-Sitter V Underway Span = 10 108USA Sikorsky Cypher UEL AR 801 rotary engine 298 41 2 8,200 Ducted Rotor V Complete Dia = 6.2 27

Rotary

Bolton 8/23/06

Current UAV Ceiling/Endurance Options

Data from: http://www.uavforum.com/vehicles/capabilities.htm

Bolton 8/23/06

Current UAV Ceiling/Payload Options

Data from: http://www.uavforum.com/vehicles/capabilities.htm

Bolton 8/23/06

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Pathfinder +

Altus I

Altair

Helios

Global Hawk ER-2

WB-57

Proteus

Citation DC-8

P-3

MaximumAltitude(ft)

Endurance (hr)

Altus II

GNAT 750

Piloted aircraft

UAV

Twin Otter

Egrett

High altitude, long endurance aircraft options

Bolton 8/23/06

Other UAV-related resources

“Civil UAV Capability Assessment” draft September 2005; NASA POC: Cheryl Yuhas

NASA/NOAA/DOE Collaboration on UAVs/UAS in Climate Change and Weather Research

Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Roadmap”

“U.S. Naval Aerial Vehicles Roadmap”

“The U.S. Air Force Remotely Piloted Aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Strategic Vision”

Bolton 8/23/06

Issues in UAV use -- Access

Airspace access

• UNITE/Access 5• UVS International “Global Access Initiative”• Recent FAA action

• RTCA standards activity (initially “sense and avoid” and command, control, and

communication)• Center for General Aviation Research (UAS Detect, Sense, and Avoid; Regulation Study on Commercial UAS Vehicle Design)

Access to aircraft

• DoD “dual use” (e.g., USAF Predators for disaster response)• NOAA fleet (?); NASA/NOAA/DOE Collaboration• Commercial supplier (manufacturer or 3rd party)

Access to RF spectrum

• Autonomy and improved spectrum management help

Bolton 8/23/06

Issues in UAV use -- Costs

Cost elements

• Acquisition (airframe, ground station, payload, spares)• Operational (fuel, maintenance, staffing e.g, 3 for Proteus,

Egrett, Twin Otter vs 6-7 or so for Gnat/Altus)• Payload integration (ca $100K-$250K)• Fixed/ground assets (moving away from “R/C model

airplane” mode and toward more autonomy can reduce ground assets and staffing)

• Transportation of aircraft, ground facilities, and personnel

Cost experience

• Operational experience/insurance (“Altus-class” UAV experience resulted in $5K/flight hour for insurance about 10 years ago

• Experience with existing “Predator-class” UAVs suggests operational costs of $10K to $30K/flight hour

Occupied aircraft are mature and have well developed infrastructure

Bolton 8/23/06

Issues in UAV use -- Reliability

UAVs have had a reputation for lower reliability

• Military legacy• Non-aerospace components and systems for low cost• “Single thread” designs• Reduced structural margins for improved performance

(esp. high altitude, long endurance)

Reliability is improving

• Larger market enables more developed components • Increased use of redundancy• Improved designs and materials• The market demands improved reliability -- at affordable cost

For complex scientific missions, the cost of the payload can equal or exceed the cost of the UAV

Bolton 8/23/06

Trends

Increased development funding by DoD (total funding approx. $1.6B FY06; $3.0B FY08)

Development directions by U.S. DoD• Larger and smaller• Stealth• Longer endurance• Perhaps higher altitude• Perhaps extreme endurance (e.g., airships)• UCAV• Optionally piloted combat aircraft

Adoption for DHS and law enforcement missions• Border patrol• Coast Guard (coastal security and environmental monitoring)• Disaster response (FAA process to approve USAF Predator flights)

Some of this could be advantageous for civilian applications;however, costs may continue to be an issue

Bolton 8/23/06

Trends (continued)

Although the majority of development funding is by DoD, there are important developments for other applications. For example:

Liquid hydrogen for long endurance -

• AeroVironment “Global Observer” (demo flights at Yuma, AZ 5/26/06, 6/2/06) LH2 fuel, fuel cell, electric motors/propellers; full-scale Global Observer designed for 250’ wingspan, 65,000’, 1000 lb payload, 7 to 10 day endurance

Mission objectives:• Persistent, global, near-space loitering capability for defense and homeland security • Low cost, rapidly deployable telecommunications infrastructure and GPS augmentation • Hurricane/storm tracking, weather monitoring, and wildfire detection/support • Environmental monitoring, agriculture optimization, and aerial imaging/mapping

• Boeing LH2 advanced concept (piston engine/propeller)

Advanced solar electric -

• Microchip Technology “SoLong” solar electric, 48 hour flight, June 2005 extensive use of on-board processing to sense and control power system (9-phase motor controller, motor pulse shaping, battery monitor and control, solar cell output monitoring)

Continuing interest in “swarms” - will real applications emerge?

Global ObserverDemo prototype50’ wingspan

SoLong15.6’ wingspan, 25 lbs

Bolton 8/23/06

Trends (continued)

Renewed interest in airships -

• Lighter than air vehicles have been mentioned frequently - mostly plans at this point

• Potential advantages are very long endurance and low cost: Satellite UAV Airship

$/payload lb/hr $1,000-$4,000 $300-$1,000 $2-$5

• Two candidates currently being developed:

Integrated Sensor as Structure (ISIS) High Altitude Airship (HAA)

DARPASolar electric/regenerative fuel cell1 year endurance70,000 ft altitudePrototype 2010; operational 2018

U.S. Army Missile Defense Agency2,000 lb payloadSolar electric/battery 6 month endurance60,000 ft altitudePrototype in 2010

Bolton 8/23/06

Trends (continued)

Special or limited production aircraft

Grob G600 optionally piloted aircraftBased on Grob G180 business jet &experience with Egrett and Strato 2C

G850 Strato 2C1 built8 hrs at 50,000 - 75,000’

G600 17 hrs endurance65,000’ 2400 lb payload

Scaled CompositesProteus, White Knight

White Knight1 built

Proteus1 built10 hrs at 55,000’

Egrett6 built15 hours at 48,000’

Bolton 8/23/06

Very Light Jets ?

Trends (continued)

Design Manufacturer Seats Engines Max. CruiseMax. Range Cost Sold Certification

Prototypes built and undergoing flight testing

Eclipse 500 Eclipse Aviation 6 2x PW610F 375 knots 1,395 nm $1.49 million 2,400 26-Jul-06Citation Mustang Cessna 6 2x PW615F 340 knots 1,300 nm $2.62 million 240 2006Adam A700 AdamJet Adam Aircraft Industries 7 2x Williams FJ33 340 knots 1,200 nm $2.28 million 282 2006Diamond D-Jet Diamond Aircraft 5 1x Williams FJ33-4 315 knots 1,350 nm $1.38 million 125 early 2008

ATG JavelinAviation Technology Group Israeli Aircraft Industries 2 2x Williams FJ33 530 knots 1,200 nm $2.80 million > 100 early 2008

Spectrum Aero Model 33 Spectrum Aeronautical 9 2x Williams FJ33-4 415 knots 2,000 nm $3.65 million Q1 2008Excel-Jet Sport-Jet Excel-Jet 5 1x Williams FJ33-4 340 knots 1,000 nm $1.00 million early 2008Honda HA-420 HondaJet Honda 6-8 2x GE Honda HF118 420 knots 1,100 nm one-off-production announced

Currently under development

Embraer Phenom 100 Embraer 6-8 2x PW617F 380 knots Å1,300 nm $2.85 million mid 2008Epic Jet Epic Aircraft 7 2x Williams FJ33-4 390 knots 1,600 nm $2.10 million early 2008Vantage Jet Eviation Jets 10 2x Williams FJ44-1 424 knots 1,300 nm $3.00 million late 2007

Adam A700 Diamond D-Jet Eclipse 500

Bolton 8/23/06

Summary of the UAV current situation

Substantial investment by U.S. DoD is driving development• High cost, designed for military applications

As UAV systems mature, there is the potential for reduced cost

There are many UAV systems now available from US and other countries for military and civilian applications (proper selection of UAV can help manage costs

Airspace access is an issue -- largely risk management• Operating rules (e.g., “see and avoid”)• Certification of airframes and operators• Perception of public and aviation community

For now, UAVs should be used for missions needing their unique capabilities (human not at risk, long endurance)