boletim de mercado 22-07 - bni · boletim de mercado 22-07.cdr author: edgar kuxi nunes pedro...

1
15,01% 15,34% 15,65% 15,87% 16,47% 17,01% O/N 30 dias 90 dias 180 dias 270 dias 360 dias | 1 | USD INDEXED BOND MATURITY 2018 - 2020 COSTS 1,50% | 2 | BNI TERM DEPOSITS 6M 12M 100K - 5M >5M - 50M >50M - 100M 100M+ AMOUNT 1M 2M 3M 10,90% 11,40% 11,90% 12,40% 11,05% 11,55% 12,05% 12,55% 11,20% 11,70% 12,20% 12,70% 11,35% 11,85% 12,35% 12,85% 11,50% 12,00% 12,50% 13,00% 01 02 CROSS CURRENCY MATRIX BNI: INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 29th July 2019 Source: XECurrency 04 BRENT OIL PRICE 03 Graphic 2 | Source: NASDAQ Source: XECurrency MARKET ANALYSIS 06 05 MARKET BULLETIN BOND MARKET 07 BT - Treasury Bills BT - Treasury Bills BT - Treasury Bills OTX - Bonds Indexed to USD OTX - Bonds Indexed to USD OTX - Bonds Indexed to USD 91 DAYS 182 DAYS 364 DAYS 3 YEARS 4 YEARS 5 YEARS 16,15% 20,25% 23,90% 7,00% 7,50% 7,75% Greater Security for your business, more comfort for your customers. Angola comes from three consecutive recessions (graphic nº 1), and according to indicators reported by INE and the central Bank (BNA), 2019 will be no different. In the first three months of this year the economy fell 0.4% compared to the same period of 2018 and 3.9% compared to the last quarter of last year. This decline in GDP is mainly due to a 6.9% drop in oil refining compared to the same period last year. Other factors that contributed to this decline in economic activity are the contraction in oil production, trade, cement and beverages. In addition to the various state incentives to support the productive sector, a high and stable oil price can do much to reverse the picture described above. Brent appreciated by 2% this week (63 USD / barrel) and is able to continue this rise taking into account various geopolitical factors. For example, following the Barry Hurricane, which caused some production units to close, US reserves shrank 40 million barrels (graphic nº 2). In addition China's demand for oil has been rising, with Saudi Arabia being the largest exporter to this market representing 19.5% of their total imports in June, the highest proportion since 2013. Saudi Arabia is "filling the supply gap left by Iran, "said Li Li, an analyst at Shanghai- based ICIS-China consultancy. "They have been trying to regain top spot in oil supplies to China in recent months". China also boosted its purchases from other major suppliers last month. Imports from Russia rose to 7.15 million tons, while Angola's shipments increased to 4.43 million tons (graphic nº 3). BNI - Direcção Financeira Internacional CERTIFICAÇÃO INTERNACIONAL DE QUALIDADE BNI - Banco de Negócios Internacional Avenida Che-Guevara nº 42 - A, Bairro Maculusso, Distrito da Ingombota. Caixa Postal 578. Luanda - Angola Tel: (+244) 222 632 900 / (+244) 222 632 901 / Fax: (+244) 222 371 887 www.bni.ao PASSION FOR ANGOLA. To realise, develop and participate in Angola’s growth. This is where we apply our passion. To always do better. 15,01% 15,34% 15,65% 15,87% 16,47% 17,01% O/N 30 dias 90 dias 180 dias 270 dias 360 dias Graphic 1 | Source: INE Graphic 3 | Source: Bloomberg AOA USD GBP EUR ZAR 1 00000 , 0,00288 0,00234 0,00259 0,04089 347,646 1,00000 0,81186 0,89897 14,2160 428,208 1,23173 1 00000 , 1,10730 17,5104 386,714 1,11238 0,90310 1,00000 15,8136 24,4545 0,07034 0,05711 0,06324 1,00000 1 AOA 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EUR 1 ZAR 15,01% 15,34% 15,65% 15,87% 16,47% 17,01% O/N 30 dias 90 dias 180 dias 270 dias 360 dias 0,00% -0,50% -1,00% -1,50% -2,00% -2,50% -3,00% 2016 2017 2018 72.00 71.00 70.00 69.00 68.00 67.00 66.00 65.00 64.00 63.40 62.00 61.00 60.00 59.00 58.00 2.5M 2.4M 2.3M 2.2M 2.1M 2M 1.5M 1M 0.5M 0M Mai/19 Jun Jul SHARE OF SAUDI ARABIAN CRUDE OIL IN CHINA´S TOTAL IMPORT 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2019/6/30 19.5 Percent

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Page 1: BOLETIM DE MERCADO 22-07 - BNI · BOLETIM DE MERCADO 22-07.cdr Author: Edgar Kuxi Nunes Pedro Created Date: 7/29/2019 5:27:58 PM

15,01%

15,34%

15,65%15,87%

16,47%

17,01%

O/N 30 dias 90 dias 180 dias 270 dias 360 dias

| 1 | USD INDEXED BOND

MATURITY 2018 - 2020

COSTS 1,50%

| 2 | BNI TERM DEPOSITS

6M 12M

100K - 5M

>5M - 50M

>50M - 100M

100M+

AMOUNT 1M 2M 3M

10,90%

11,40%

11,90%

12,40%

11,05%

11,55%

12,05%

12,55%

11,20%

11,70%

12,20%

12,70%

11,35%

11,85%

12,35%

12,85%

11,50%

12,00%

12,50%

13,00%

01 02 CROSS CURRENCY MATRIX

BNI: INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

29th July 2019

Source: XECurrency

04BRENT OIL PRICE03

Graphic 2 | Source: NASDAQ Source: XECurrency

MARKET ANALYSIS0605

MARKET BULLETIN

BOND MARKET07BT - Treasury Bills

BT - Treasury Bills

BT - Treasury Bills

OTX - Bonds Indexed to USD

OTX - Bonds Indexed to USD

OTX - Bonds Indexed to USD

91 DAYS

182 DAYS

364 DAYS

3 YEARS

4 YEARS

5 YEARS

16,15%

20,25%

23,90%

7,00%

7,50%

7,75%

Greater Security for your business,more comfort for your customers.

Angola comes from three consecutive recessions (graphic nº 1), and according to indicators reported by INE and the central Bank (BNA), 2019 will be no different. In the first three months of this year the economy fell 0.4% compared to the same period of 2018 and 3.9% compared to the last quarter of last year. This decline in GDP is mainly due to a 6.9% drop in oil refining compared to the same period last year. Other factors that contributed to this decline in economic activity are the contraction in oil production, trade, cement and beverages.

In addition to the various state incentives to support the productive sector, a high and stable oil price can do much to reverse the picture described above. Brent appreciated by 2% this week (63 USD / barrel) and is able to continue this rise taking into account various geopolitical factors. For example, following the Barry Hurricane, which caused some production units to close, US reserves shrank 40 million barrels (graphic nº 2).

In addition China's demand for oil has been rising, with Saudi Arabia being the largest exporter to this market representing 19.5% of their total imports in June, the highest proportion since 2013. Saudi Arabia is "filling the supply gap left by Iran, "said Li Li, an analyst at Shanghai-based ICIS-China consultancy. "They have been trying to regain top spot in oil supplies to China in recent months". China also boosted its purchases from other major suppliers last month. Imports from Russia rose to 7.15 million tons, while Angola's shipments increased to 4.43 million tons (graphic nº 3).

BNI - Direcção Financeira Internacional

CERTIFICAÇÃO INTERNACIONAL DE QUALIDADE

BNI - Banco de Negócios InternacionalAvenida Che-Guevara nº 42 - A, Bairro Maculusso, Distrito da Ingombota. Caixa Postal 578. Luanda - AngolaTel: (+244) 222 632 900 / (+244) 222 632 901 / Fax: (+244) 222 371 887

www.bni.ao

PASSION FOR ANGOLA.To realise, develop and participate in Angola’s growth.This is where we apply our passion. To always do better.

15,01%

15,34%

15,65%15,87%

16,47%

17,01%

O/N 30 dias 90 dias 180 dias 270 dias 360 dias

Graphic 1 | Source: INE

Graphic 3 | Source: Bloomberg

AOA

USD

GBP

EUR

ZAR

1 00000,

0,00288

0,00234

0,00259

0,04089

347,646

1,00000

0,81186

0,89897

14,2160

428,208

1,23173

1 00000,

1,10730

17,5104

386,714

1,11238

0,90310

1,00000

15,8136

24,4545

0,07034

0,05711

0,06324

1,00000

1 AOA 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EUR 1 ZAR

15,01%

15,34%

15,65%15,87%

16,47%

17,01%

O/N 30 dias 90 dias 180 dias 270 dias 360 dias

0,00%

-0,50%

-1,00%

-1,50%

-2,00%

-2,50%

-3,00%

2016 2017 2018

72.0071.0070.0069.0068.0067.0066.0065.0064.0063.4062.0061.0060.0059.0058.002.5M2.4M2.3M2.2M2.1M

2M

1.5M

1M

0.5M

0MMai/19 Jun Jul

SHARE OF SAUDI ARABIAN CRUDE OIL IN CHINA´S TOTAL IMPORT

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

2019/6/3019.5 Percent