bob smith platts june 18 2014 transmission planning development
TRANSCRIPT
Platts 2014 Transmission Planning and Development Conference
June 18-19 Arlington, VA
Resource AdequacyMethods Moving Forward to Assure Peak Deliverability
Bob SmithDirector, Energy Delivery Asset Management & Planning
Outline
• APS System and Generation Resources
• Capacity Planning
• Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Demand
Response
• Managing Intermittency
• Grid Modernization
2
Transmission System & Generation
• Electric generating resources help balance the flow of power around the state
• Grid built to balance sources of energy– Palo Verde and natural gas
generators are located West of Valley while coal generators are located North and East
• Generation additions or retirements change this balance
• Generation close to customer demand center (metro-Phx) improves transmission import capabilities and maintains a balanced system
3
Supply-Demand Gap
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Year
MW
Existing Resources
Existing Contracts
New Utility-Scale Resources
New Customer Resources
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• Growth in demand requirements expected to resume
• Customer resources expected to triple over planning horizon• Renewable Energy Standard
15% by 2025• Energy Efficiency Standard
22% by 2020
• Additional resource needs anticipated to be met by increasingly diverse and efficient technologies
Demand Requirements
2014-2029 (Forecast)
Future Additional Resources6,613 MW Expected at Peak
a. New Utility-Scale Resources Natural Gas
4,205 MW
Renewable Energy 425 MW (818 MW nameplate capacity)
b. New Customer Resources Energy Efficiency 1,447 MW
Distributed Energy 261 MW (722 MW nameplate capacity)
Demand Response 275 MW
Expected Future Resources
20148,124 MW
peak requirement
100% met with existing resources
202912,982 MW
peak requirement
50% met with existing resources
b
a
Existing Utility-Scale Resources
Existing Contracts
Existing Customer Resources
a New Utility-Scale Resources
New Customer Resourcesb
5
Different Types of Renewables vs. Time of Day
Illustration of future peak demand
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000Load Profile
Fixed Position PV
Single Axis Tracking PV
Wind
CSP w/6 Hr Storage
MW Level of Renewable Output
Hour of Day
MW of System Load
CTs
6
Evolving Customer Demand and Markets
• Growth of solar PV is
changing customer energy
consumption patterns
• Generators must be able to
start and stop multiple times
per day
• Fast starting and ramping
capability is required in
responding to variable output
of renewable resources
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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 231,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Non-Summer Customer Power Consumption
2014 2021 20252029
HOUR
MW
Potential over-generation followed by 8-hr 3,000
MW continuous up-ramp
Capacity Contribution of Solar PV Declines as Deployment Levels Increase
APS Forecast Peak LoadWith Photovoltaic (Fixed South Facing)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
1st Addition MW PV 2nd Additon PV 3rd Addition PV
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 30000%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Average Capacity Contribution
Incremental Capacity Contribution Range of Possible Penetration by 2025
0
Peak Shifts to Sunset
8
Capa
city
Con
trib
ution
Per
cent
of N
amep
late
MW of Nameplate Capacity
Ocotillo Modernization Project
• Retire existing steam units (220 MW) constructed in 1960
• Replace aging steam units with modern combustion turbines– Install five General Electric LMS 100 combustion turbines – 102 MW each
– Transmission and natural gas pipeline infrastructure optimized
– Net site capacity increased by 290 MW to 620 MW total
• Maintain Valley reliability– Generation close to load center
– Contingency and voltage support
• Responsive unit operations– Quick starting and ramping
– Renewable integration
• Environmental attributes– Emissions and water consumption
• In-service planned for summer 2018
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Modernized Grid
AMI
AMI Solar Production
Meters
Automated Switches
TOAN
TOAN
Fault Indicators
Substation Health
Monitoring
Integrated Volt/VAR Control
Demand Response
Fiber Backhaul
ADMS EMSTransformer
Load Managemen
t
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Conclusions
• Transmission system must accommodate entirety of peak capacity needs– Reserves– Back-up capacity
• Diverse resource fleet includes renewables and energy efficiency– Significant growth expected
• Flexible generation aligns with capacity needs and complements growing renewable energy fleet
• Investments in modernizing grid continuing
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