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TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Real Science
Factors Factor Degree of Human Control Output of the sun None Particles in the air Some Gasses in the air Some The orbit tilt None The orbit eccentricity None Relation tilt to apogee vs perigee None The building of cities and paving Complete Our location in the plane of the galaxy None
Earth Temperature gain ( Loss ) = Sun –Reflected - Radiated
It all starts with the sun
Our sun is a variable star
Near term
Ulysses spacecraft showed a 50 year low in solar wind. Recently we had a 55 year low in radio emissions from the
sun
Orbital effects Eccentricity 400, 123 and 95 thousand years
Oval makes the earth away more than nearAnnual cooling when away will be more than heating when away
Axis tilt 41 thousand yearsLess tilt means cooler polesCooler poles grow ice and cause cooling
Precession (Tip to orbit position) 23 and 19 thousand yearsMore land north of the equator than southSummer heating vs winter cooling
In and out of the plane of the galaxy 63 million years
Things in the atmosphere
Major green house gasses Carbon Dioxide Methane
Major anti green house gas: Sulfur Dioxide
Major green house particle: Soot
Major reflectors: Fine dust Smoke ( South and East Asia )
Both: Clouds
Green house gasses
Mona Loa Carbon Dioxide measurements
Recent data
GISS – Goddard Institute for Space Studies and home of James Hansen,Hadley Centre – British Meteorological Office research centreUAH – The University of Alabama, Huntsville, home of Roy Spencer with his colleagues including John Christy of NASA andRSS – Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa, California, a company supported by NASA for the analysis of satellite data
Attempts at prediction
Judith Lean (NRL) and
David Rind (NASA/GISS)
Measured temperature Black
Model predicted temperature Orange
Pacific currents Purple
Volcanoes Blue
CO2 in Red
Sun output in Green
Predicts the past with 76% of accuracy
Sum of effects
Low sun output is now cooling Higher Carbon Dioxide is now heating Low levels of Sulfur Dioxide is heating Fine particles are cooling Larger particles are heating Orbit is warming Paving and building is warming
Science Conclusion
Climate has always been changing Humans are having an effect but it is
overwhelmed by natural processes With enough factors we are able to predict the
past in the short term with 76 % accuracy The future is less predictable Some changes can be fast
Future climate disruption
Super volcano Certain
Comet strike we can’t stop Certain
Lunatics with Nuclear bombs Probable
Sun output low causing ice age Certain
Plane of Galaxy cooling Certain
Run away green house effect Not Known
Any of the above will cause famine
High temperature mitigation
Sea level Flood the Quatrra Depression ( sp?) (-436ft.) Increase the level of the dead sea (-1,200 ft to
surface) Dams
Atmospheric Gasses Seed the sea with iron Bury yard waste and organic waste Burn Hydrogen Sulfide in high altitude aircraft
Wealth
Questions?
Solar output
Data from Radio carbon dating
