bnzmo - · pdf filethursday’s domestic data begin with the 10:00am anz ... its january...
TRANSCRIPT
What More Do You Want?
Retail trade jumps 1.7% in Q4, 5.5% annually
January PSI (57.8) a big contrast to slow PMI
Wednesday’s dairy auction price aided by
supply doubts?
Fonterra milk price update this week or next?
Q4 PPI likely more deflationary on dairy and oil
Consumer confidence, Crown accounts,
English also due
Last week’s news of an abrupt slowing in New Zealand’s
PMI had us a tad apprehensive. So it was a big relief to
see, this morning, the Performance of Services Index
(PSI) get even stronger in January, along with the reported
expansion in Q4 retail trade activity. It all gels with a
burgeoning labour market, high net inward migration
and a reheating housing market. Yet market pricing
has tilted toward OCR cuts. It’s hard to reconcile.
In terms of the Q4 retail trade results, what more do
you want, really? Volumes jumped 1.7% in the quarter,
compared to market expectations of 1.3%. Q3’s gain
was revised up to 1.6%, from 1.5%. So the annual for Q4
came in at a whopping 5.5%. The core measure – which
essentially excludes expenditure on fuel and vehicles -
was also strong, up 1.5% in the quarter, for 5.4% y/y.
However, it was not across-the-board strong, with the
regional picture, in particular, still looking a bit variable.
Real growth in the December quarter was very much led
by Auckland (2.7%) and Canterbury (2.5%), but with the
likes of Waikato (-1.9%) and Wellington (-0.8%) going
backwards. Curiously, total spending on food was a bit
weak through the quarter.
Retail Sales Growth
Real Retail Sales
But, overall, this morning’s retail trade results were
remarkably strong. They certainly exceeded our solid
expectation of 1.2%. Importantly, this came via the dollar-
value result being higher than the monthly electronic card
transactions data had us inferring. So, it was not to do
with the retail price deflator proving weaker than we
expected. Indeed, the RPI slipped just 0.1% in Q4,
compared to the 0.5% fall we were looking for.
The 1.7% real retail trade gain goes a good way to
supporting our Q4 GDP growth estimate of 0.9%, just
at a time when the dry weather is coming onto the radar,
threatening to curtail on-farm production in the New Year,
in turn slowing expectations for Q1 GDP growth. It’s a
reminder that there are still a lot of moving parts in the
economy, but with strong momentum, on balance.
This morning’s PSI, which quickened to 57.8, from 56.7,
was a very good example of this. It was a welcome and
substantive offset to the unusually slow PMI for January
(50.9), keeping the composite (PSI/PMI) index at a level
suggestive of decent-to-strong GDP growth, much as we
forecast. The PSI alone was also encouraging in its details,
with outsized readings for production (60.2), new orders
(61.4), stout employment (54.5) and inventory (53.9)
not a problem.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Auckland Waikato Wellington Rem. Of NI Canterbury Rem. Of SI Total NZ
Annual %change ($)
RegionSource:Statistics New Zealand, BNZ
Retail Trade
Q4 (volume) % Actual Mkt Expected Q3
quarterly +1.7 +1.3% +1.6R
- ex-auto +1.5 +1.5R
annual +5.5 +4.9
- ex-auto +5.4 +4.8All data seasonally adjusted
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
% change
Quarter
Annual
Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ Quarterly
PSI and PMI - Seasonally Adjusted
Granted, the 6.9 point gap between the PSI and the
PMI was unusually large in January, giving some pause
for thought as to what’s going on in the economy, and
where. However, we note that on the handful of previous
occasions when the gap has been at least as big, the PMI
has posted a decent rebound the very next month – more
often than not a sizable one.
Skipping to Wednesday, the early-morning (NZ time) GDT
dairy auction price result seems, to us, slightly biased to a
further increase – especially with the dry local weather
threatening supply. This is even after the 9.4% price lift at
the last auction. One thing is for sure, the market received
confirmation over the past week that NZ supply conditions
are deteriorating with news that Fonterra collected less
milk in January (-2.9% y/y) and the government recently
declaring drought conditions on the east coast of the
South Island.
More generally, while we see international dairy prices
around 20% higher by the end of the year progress is
unlikely to be in a straight line. We see dairy prices higher
in 2015 with a slowdown in global (not just NZ) supply an
important factor and rising unsatisfied bidders a nearer-
term positive signal. But we are also conscious of some
challenges including the ongoing impact of the Russian
ban and the strife it is causing in Europe (including the
likely extension of EU storage aid), question marks
around Chinese supply/demand, low international
grain prices and the removal of EU production quotas.
Note that Fonterra may well update the market on its
2014/15 milk price forecast this week (or next?), in
keeping with its late-February updates in the past.
We would expect the co-op to maintain its view of
$4.70 / kgMS (barring a shock result at this week’s
auction). Sizeable international price improvement
over coming months is still required to achieve this.
Our point estimate for the 2014/15 milk price, at $4.50,
remains pitched a bit under Fonterra’s. But the risk
around our forecast has shifted from balanced to
upwards following the previous big auction result
(+9.4%).
Producer Prices
For Wednesday afternoon, the NZ banking system’s
weekly mortgage approvals will be checked for ongoing
upturn, given signs of a resurgent housing market.
Thursday’s domestic data begin with the 10:00am ANZ
job ads for January. But the bigger focus will be on the
Q4 producer price data, 10:45am. Producer output prices
will surely be further impacted by lower dairy export
prices, which explains our expectation of a 1.0% fall in the
quarter, taking the annual down further, to -1.7%, from -
1.0% in Q3. Producer input prices will likely begin to feel
the downdraft from falling oil (and other raw commodity)
prices. This helps explain the 1.5% fall we anticipate,
which would rip the annual down to -3.0%, from -2.2%.
Such intensifying deflation in these producer price indices
might just get some airtime in the markets and media.
However, because it mainly reflects dairy and oil prices,
and the lagged impacts of the high currency, it shouldn’t
be any real news.
The Q4 Capital Goods Price Index is also due 10:45am
Thursday, but it’s the afternoon’s (1:00pm) ANZ-RM
consumer confidence that will get the attention, with
its January result of 128.9 to compare to. We can’t see
why this index should have fallen much, if at all.
Friday delivers the latest Crown Financial Accounts
(six months to December 2014), which will help us judge
the likelihood of a surplus emerging as soon as this fiscal
year (2014/15). It’s still a touch and go affair. Perhaps
Finance Minister, Bill English, will have more to say on
fiscal matters in his talk midday Thursday. After all, it’s
to the Institute of Public Administration.
Finally, just be aware that RBNZ Governor, Graeme
Wheeler, is talking Wednesday morning to the NZ
Institute of Directors – although this is described as
“not public” according to the Bloomberg source.
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14
Index
MonthlySource: Business New Zealand, BNZ
Manufacturing (PMI)
Services (PSI)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inputs
Outputs
Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ
Annual % change
Quarterly
BNZ est for Q4
Global Watch
Australia
It’s an extremely light data week with only motor vehicle
sales data for January and the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence weekly update.
As for motor vehicle sales, being released on Monday,
while there is no forecast, sales have been flat overall this
past year and for the past three years. Sales rose 3.0% in
seasonally adjusted terms in December to be 1.0% lower
than December 2013 sales levels.
With the Australian dollar lower and some softening in
the labour market over time, macro factors are likely to be
something of a headwind to sales overall, unless business
sales pick up. And that’s dependent on non-resource
business investment showing signs of growth.
Vehicle Sales Flat Overall
Tuesday sees the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
index for the week of February 15. Last week, the weekly
index showed no bounce in the wake of the RBA cut,
unlike the counterpart monthly Westpac-Melbourne
Institute index that rose 8.0%. It will be interesting to see
the reaction of consumers to this week’s rise back up in
the unemployment rate. Some hit would not surprise.
The Two Consumer Confidence Measures Re-Aligned
The RBA Minutes from this month’s Board meeting are
due. While usually trawled through to glean the very latest
economy, policy and $A nuances, it’s hard to see this one
adding to much over and above the quarterly statement
and last week’s Semi-Annual testimony from the Governor
and his senior team.
China
Things will be quiet in China with Lunar New Year falling
on Thursday (heralding the year of the goat). January new
loans and money supply data were a mixed bag. Media
indication last week was that further PBoC policy easing
was not imminent.
United States
US data of note is confined to latest housing market
indications (NAHB index Tuesday, housing starts on
Wednesday), industrial production (Wednesday) and
the Empire State (NY) and Philly Fed surveys on Tuesday
and Thursday respectively. Greater interest will be in the
minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meetings, on Wednesday
(early Thursday morning AU/NZ time).
Eurozone
Following Friday’s first estimate of Q4 GDP, Eurozone
data interest centres on Friday’s ‘flash’ PMI numbers for
the Eurozone as well as Germany and France. Germany's
ZEW Survey (of financial analysts) is due Tuesday.
UK
A fairly busy week in the UK and in the wake of the latest
Inflation Report showing near term deflation risk but
inflation seen running above target at the end of the
forecast period on current policy settings. CPI comes
Tuesday (headline inflation seen at 0.4%yoy in January
from 0.5%). Unemployment is due Wednesday as are
latest BoE minutes, and retail sales on Friday.
Japan
Monetary policy meetings/decisions are confined to
Japan, where no change from the current ¥80bn
per month pace of quantitative easing (QQME) is
confidently expected. Ahead of the BoJ decision
(Wednesday) we’ll get the first GDP estimate for Q4 on
Monday, expected to show a recovery from the Q3 drop
(consensus +0.9% after 0.5% in Q3). This would solidify
expectations for no further near term BoJ actions. Japan
trade data come Thursday and where some improvement
in the (adjusted) trade balance is expected with the impact
of lower oil imports costs showing up.
Canada
Main data interest in Canada is in December retail sales
on Friday.
Fixed Interest Market
Reuters: BNZL, BNZM Bloomberg:BNZ
Offshore events may dominate NZ yields this week in
absence of key domestic data releases. The release of
the RBA Minutes may be crucial in impacting sentiment
locally. In recent weeks NZ rates have shown themselves
to suffer contagion from events that impact on rate cut
expectations across the Tasman. e.g. last week’s softer
than anticipated AU employment report. But with the
market already pricing almost 50bps of further RBA cuts
it’s difficult to see the Minutes pushing the market to
price significantly more.
We continue to see a pullback in NZ 2-year swap to below
3.50% as a paying opportunity. At this level the market
would be pricing more than one 25bps RBNZ rate cut.
Ultimately we do not see a cut being delivered. Today’s
Q4 retail sales data provide further evidence domestic
activity remains strong even as inflation indicators remain
subdued. We see the Bank firmly on hold for a prolonged
period with the bias still for a higher OCR before this cycle
is over. Over the medium-term we ultimately see 2-year
swap trading back above 4.00%.
US FOMC Minutes will also be key on Thursday
morning (NZT). At the release of the late-Jan FOMC
statement the inclusion of “international developments”
as an influence on the Fed’s rate decision gained a lot of
attention. It will be interesting to see how much genuine
concern members felt regarding recent events in the
Eurozone, in particular. There will also likely be healthy
debate over the positive and negative influences of the
oil price collapse. Overall, we see Fed communication
increasingly preparing the market for a June rise in the
Fed Funds rate. Fed fund futures continue to price a late
2015 hike. Any re-pricing will likely be felt in higher US
yields across the curve.
The next level of support for US 10-year Treasuries is seen
as yields approach 2.20%. Treasuries have so far found
little support at technical levels for yields above 2.0%.
Momentum and speculative positioning suggest the
current sell-off could extend. The most recent CFTC data
show speculative positions in US 10-year Treasuries are
now almost back to neutral. They have been significantly
short in recent months. This suggests the market is now
better positioned to respond to any positive data surprises
or hawkish Fed rhetoric (i.e. for yields to rise). In this
regard, also look out for the Philadelphia Fed Business
Survey (Thurs) and Manufacturing PMI (Fri).
The NZ curve remains biased to steepen in our view.
If US 10-year yields do continue to rise they will likely
drag NZ yields higher. Alternatively, if local events
conspire to see the market increasing its expectations
for RBNZ cuts, this will likely see short-end yields fall
more sharply. Representative of this view we see the
NZ 2-10s swap curve steepening toward 40bps over
the medium-term.
We see a medium-term bias for NZ-US swaps spreads
to narrow, and NZ-AU to widen. We believe the market’s
rate expectations for the US have further to rise than for
NZ. We see NZ-US 2-year swap spreads (currently 268bps)
trading toward 230bps over the medium-term. Conversely,
we see NZ-AU 2-year swaps (currently 146bps) trading
back toward 160bps as the RBA cuts but the RBNZ is
biased to tighten further in this cycle.
Key Fixed Interest Views
change (bps)90 day
bills
04/15
NZGB
04/23
NZGB2yr swaps 10yr swaps
2yr/10yr
swaps
(bps)
6-Feb-15 3.64% 3.46% 3.18% 3.54% 3.62% 9
13-Feb-15 3.64% 3.44% 3.26% 3.55% 3.74% 18
Change (bps) 0 -2 8 1 12 10
Category 16-Feb-15Tactical
(1w-1m)
Strategic
(12mth)Comments
NZ Money Markets OCR 3.50% We don't expect the RBNZ to cut this year. We still believe the bias is for further hikes to complete the cycle, in 2016.
NZ Swap Yields 2y 3.56% Expect some consolidation around current levels, though not convinced we have yet seen low on yields.
5y 3.64% Mid curve to take cue from US yields, absent significant issuance in coming weeks creating receiving interest.
10y 3.75% Higher US yields should exert some upward pressure on NZ long-end swaps.
NZ Swap Curve 2s-10s 19bps We see bias for steepening over medium-term.
NZ Bond Yields NZGB 2023s 3.26% Direction to be determined by offshore moves, though sell-off to be limited by tight supply-demand dynamics.
NZ-AU Swap Spreads 2y 144bps Absence of near-term catalyst, though widening over medium term as RBA cuts but RBNZ on hold.
NZ Swap-Bond Spread 2023s ASM 49bps Bias for near-term widening as limited supply coincides with solid NZGB demand and coupon payments/maturity.
US Bond Yields 10y 2.05% There has been little support to Treasuries as yields reached technical levels. Next level of support approaching 2.20%.
NZ-US Bond Spread NZ-US 2023s 135bps Spreads are establishing the lower range we expect this year. If there is further harsh sell-off in USTs, NZGBs to outperform.
NZ-AU Bond Spread NZ-AU 2023s 90bps We see spreads as mid-range at present without obvious trading signal.
Foreign Exchange Markets
Reuters pg BNZWFWDS Bloomberg pg BNZ9
We remain of the view that NZD/USD should be an
outperformer against its peers (e.g EUR, AUD) in the
near-term, unless incoming data suggests that Governor
Wheeler should move to an easing bias. That seems
unlikely. In the past fortnight, NZ labour market and
retail sales reports for Q4 were very strong.
In our view, this should support NZD/USD in a push
above 0.75. Our short-term fair-value model suggests that
NZD/USD should be closer to 0.7670, though we think it
will falter at 0.7610. There (or just below) is where we eye
entering a fresh medium-term short position, with a target
of 0.70 by year’s end.
One of the forces keeping NZD/USD capped, in our mind,
is the current level of NZD/AUD, which sits just 30pts shy
of its post-float high (0.9660). As we covered in a research
note last week, we would be unsurprised to see a fresh
post-float high in coming weeks. But for the moment, the
psychological barrier remains. Above 0.9660, the uptrend
courtesy of the cyclical highs in 1995 and 2005 provides
another barrier at 0.9700. To put this in context, NZD/USD
at 0.76 and AUD/USD at current levels (0.7760) would
imply NZD/AUD at 0.9790. That will take some doing.
For NZD/USD to punch materially toward 0.76, then,
we would likely need to see AUD/USD make a similar
recovery. The odds of that happening are not so bad as
they might seem. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens failed to
fuel speculation of a third rate cut (beyond the second
already priced in by May), which caused AUD to see
some mild relief. A continued recovery in oil prices
might well see a push toward 0.79 in AUD/USD.
We also note that net speculative positions on NZD/USD
are at their shortest since 2008. This has been driven
by a rise in the number of speculative investors looking
for a lower NZD (rather than a substantial drop in those
expecting an increase). This short community is likely to
be disappointed in the near-term, and there is room for
them to unwind their trades, exerting a positive influence
on NZD.
Charts of the week
Chart 1: NZD/AUD Keeping A Cap On NZD/USD? Chart 2: NZD Short Positions At Highest Level Since 2008
Current Week ahead Year ahead Momentum¹
weekly Δ monthly Δ weekly Δ monthly Δ
12% 19% 2.8 -2.8
¹According to our momentum model ²According to our short-term fair-value models ³According to our Risk Appetite Index (where 100 = risk-loving) ⁴ASB Commodity Price Index
Source: BNZ, Bloomberg, ASB
NZD Weekly Outlook
NZD/USD 0.7460 ↗ ↘A holiday-shortened week in the US, with the FOMC minutes (Wed) a highlight. But the real test for
USD will be Fed Chair Yellen's testimony next week. We pick a 0.7390 - 0.7590 range.
Outlook
Neutral
NZD/AUD 0.9591 → → Positive
NegativeNZD/GBP
0.6538
→ →0.4836
NZD/JPY 88.27
Short- term Fair Value²
NZD/USD:
The RBA's Stevens failed to inspire further AUD losses last week, and the dearth of data on both
sides of the Tasman should keep the cross subdued. That said, we'd not bet against 0.9660+.
BoE Governor Carney sounded hawkish at last week's Inflation Report, causing markets to bring
forward expected rate hikes. This enthusiasm is unlikely to grow, with inflation still subdued.
The ups and downs of Greece's debt negotiations is creating some volatility in EUR, but we are
unlikely to see a comprehensive resolution. PMIs due at the week's end may be positive.
Media reports suggest that BoJ officials now consider further yen easing politically unpalatable,
given its impact on consumers. This should see JPY hold its ground relative to its peers.↗ →
Negative
Neutral
NZD/EUR → →
Risk Appetite³ NZ Commodity Prices (SDR) ⁴
56% 169.50.7669 0.9112NZD/AUD:
Technicals
NZD/USD
Outlook: Play the range
ST Resistance: 0.7610 (ahead of 0.7740)
ST Support: 0.7180 (ahead of 0.7000)
Momentum has returned to neutral, with perhaps a
mildly positive bias in the near-term. There should
be strong resistance at 0.7610. On a weekly basis,
a bearish cross of moving averages keeps the
medium-term picture negative.
NZD/AUD
Outlook: Play the range
ST Resistance: 0.9660 (ahead of 0.9700)
ST Support: 0.9480 (ahead of 0.9340)
The march higher in the cross has been orderly, and the
post-float high of 0.9660 is unlikely to prove impervious.
Above that, the uptrend pronounced by the 1995 & 2005
cyclical peaks may be the real cap (currently 0.9695).
NZ 5-year Swap Rate
Outlook: Lower
ST Resistance: 3.80
ST Support: 3.22
The correction last week was more pronounced than
expected moving through 3.66 to 3.71, finishing the week
back at 3.63. Still expect a move lower in yield towards
support at 3.22, this will only be brought into question
should we break 3.80.
NZ 2-year - 5-year Swap Spread (yield curve)
Outlook: Flatter
ST Resistance: +40
ST Support: –25
Today’s chart is a weekly, over the past10 years.
We needed this to find some support for a market
that has flattened from +100 to zero without a major
correction. There is no sign of a correction at this
stage so expect the move to continue to –25.
NZD/USD – Daily
Source: Bloomberg
NZD/AUD – Daily
Source: Bloomberg
NZ 5-yr Swap – Daily
Source: Bloomberg
NZ 2yr 5yrSwap Spread – Daily
Source: Bloomberg
Key Upcoming Events
Forecast Median Last Forecast Median Last
Monday 16 February
NZ, Retail Trade, Q4 vol s.a. +1.2% +1.3% +1.5%
NZ, BNZ PSI (Services), January 56.5
Jpn, GDP, Q4 1st est +0.9% -0.5%
US, Holiday, Presidents' Day
Tuesday 17 February
Aus, RBA Minutes, 3 Feb Meeting
China, Property Prices, January
Germ, ZEW Sentiment, February +55.0 +48.4
UK, CPI, January y/y +0.4% +0.5%
US, NAHB Housing Index, February 58 57
US, Empire Manufacturing, February +8.50 +9.95
Wednesday 18 February
NZ, Wheeler Speaks, (Not Public)
NZ, Dairy Auction +9.4%
Jpn, BOJ Policy Announcement +¥80T p.a. +¥80T
UK, BOE Minutes, 5 Feb Meeting
UK, Unemployment Rate (ILO), December 5.8% 5.8%
US, PPI ex-food/energy, January y/y +2.0% +2.1%
US, Industrial Production, January +0.3% -0.1%
US, Housing Starts, January 1070k 1089k
US, FOMC Minutes, 27/28 Jan Meeting
Thursday 19 February
NZ, PPI Outputs, Q4 y/y -1.7% -1.0%
NZ, ANZ Job Ads, January +0.8%
NZ, ANZ-RM Consumer Confidence, 128.9
NZ, English Speaks, IPANZ midday
NZ, Capital Goods Price Index, Q4 y/y +2.3%
Jpn, BOJ Economic Report
Jpn, Merchandise Trade Balance, January -¥1,683 -¥665b
Jpn, All Industry Index, December -0.2% +0.1%
Euro, Consumer Confidence, Feb 1st estimate -7.5 -8.5
UK, CBI Industrial Trends, February +6 +4
US, Leading Indicator, January +0.3% +0.5%
US, Jobless Claims, week ended 14/02 290k 304k
US, Philly Fed Index, February +9.0 +6.3
Friday 20 February
NZ, Crown Financial Statements, 6m-to-Dec 2014
Euro, PMI Manufacturing, February 1st est 51.5 51.0
Euro, PMI Services, February 1st est 53.0 52.7
Germ, PPI, January y/y -2.0% -1.7%
UK, Retail Sales vol., January -0.2% +0.4%
US, Markit PMI, February 1st est 53.6 53.9
US, CPI Revisions
Historical Data
Today Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago Today Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago
CASH & BANK BILLS
Call 3.50 3.50 3.50 2.50
1mth 3.61 3.64 3.63 2.68
2mth 3.62 3.64 3.66 2.80
3mth 3.63 3.64 3.68 2.91
6mth 3.65 3.65 3.69 3.12
GOVERNMENT STOCK
04/15 3.47 3.47 3.52 3.29
12/17 3.20 3.20 3.49 3.89
03/19 3.19 3.18 3.50 4.09
04/20 3.23 3.21 3.52 4.30
05/21 3.25 3.22 3.53 4.38
04/23 3.28 3.32 3.57 4.56
GLOBAL CREDIT INDICES (ITRXX)
AUD 5Y 93.10 93.21 99.63 104.86
N. AMERICA 5Y 64.71 66.68 69.38 67.50
EUROPE 5Y 56.40 55.75 63.00 76.95
SWAP RATES
2 years 3.58 3.59 3.80 3.87
3 years 3.60 3.59 3.85 4.18
5 years 3.65 3.62 3.91 4.59
10 years 3.76 3.70 3.98 5.10
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
NZD/USD 0.748 0.7352 0.7832 0.8285
NZD/AUD 0.9622 0.9467 0.9536 0.9251
NZD/JPY 88.74 87.510 92.698 84.927
NZD/EUR 0.656 0.6505 0.6602 0.6085
NZD/GBP 0.485 0.4829 0.5161 0.5052
NZD/CAD 0.931 0.9225 0.9282 0.9147
TWI 77.47 76.33 79.58 78.11
NZD Outlook
0.38
0.42
0.46
0.50
0.54
0.58
0.62
0.66
0.70
0.74
0.78
0.82
0.86
0.90
0.94
0.98
46
50
54
58
62
66
70
74
78
82
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NZD/USDTWI
Monthly
New Zealand Dollar
Source: BNZ, RBNZ
NZD/USD (rhs)
NZD TWI
Forecast
Stephen Toplis
Head of Research
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Craig Ebert
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Doug Steel Senior Economist
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Kymberly Martin Senior Market Strategist
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Raiko Shareef Currency Strategist
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