bmti short sea report 2011wk33

8/4/2019 BMTI Short Sea Report 2011WK33

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Europe's leading trend experts for the shipping industry 23 August 2011 Page 1 of 4 Yr29/2

No2

18 to 24 August, 2011

BMTI Short Sea ReportFOR BMTI-SUBSCRIBER .

Baltic Sea Markets Mostly Stagnant with Minor Increases in Fertilizer Transits

North European markets refuse to be revived now atthe end of summer and the middle of holiday seasonwith most movements in rates and cargoes stuck in aholding pattern. A revival in grain cargoes, long ru-moured, has so far failed to transpire, however grainvia Black Sea and Med has grown rather boisterous inrecent weeks, even drawing down several open shipsin the Baltic Sea waters and, in this respect, going tofirm up rates despite a general lack of activity. Oper-ating costs have eased slightly, luckily for owners,due to declines in bunker prices, though this has hadthus far little noticeable impact on rates. Fertilizers

are one cargo that have seen a slight uptick in de-mand with rates hitting upwards of EUR 20/mt for3,000mt cargoes shipped from Baltic States to ARA.

Baltic Westward [2010 -11]

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

3329252117139514945413733Week

/mt

This graph tracks avg. freight rates for a general short sea cargo

of 3,00 0mt shipped from the Baltic States to the ARA region.

Black Sea Stays Busy Though Open Tonnage Neutralizing Rate Hikes

Cargo demand has been holding to a fairly high levelin the Black Sea, which is heartening area ownersand providing more business than has been seen inmany months thanks to parallel demand for steels,aluminium, coal and especially increases in grain de-mand from Russia's newly opened grain terminals.Demand for small shipments of scrap is also on the

rise via Black Sea as well as the Med. Rates, on theother hand, have stayed essentially unchanged,despite the uplift in demand, as open tonnage is stillexceeding overall cargo, giving charterers still a slight

upper hand in negotiations. All told, however, availsare being drawn down slowly along several traderoutes and if persistent cargo succeeds in pullingexcess tonnage off the market, we could see ratesrising again within a week or two. Now, a 3,000mtsteel cargo for Odessa/Piraeus can get a steady US$24/mt, coal of 5,000mt settles at US$ 17-18/mt for

Tuapse/Marmara, 2,000mt of scrap 90' can get un-changed US$ 27 for Poti/Marmara and 5,000mt ofgrain is stable at US$ 50/mt for Odessa/Tunis.

Caspian Sea Freights Supported by Acute Shortage of Open Vessels

A rather serious shortage of open tonnage in theCaspian Sea basin has helped light a small fire underspot rate levels with cargoes increasing slightly inthe past week, enough so that owners with theoption can usually extract slightly higher than last(upwards of US$ 0.5-1.0/mt) if they are well-posi-

tioned. Indeed, demand for shipments of steel pro-ducts, grain and timber has only increased slightlyover the past week. As such, we are already seeing

upgrades of nearly US$ 1/mt week-on-week with a3,000mt rebar cargo from Astrakhan able to fetchUS$ 20/mt to Anzali, whereas the same trip wouldgo for something closer to US$ 18-19/mt just twoweeks ago. The same sort of rate hike has been seenon this route for grain cargoes. Steel products in the

3-5,000mt range are going for US$ 16/mt now onthe same route, up from US$ 15/mt just a week ago.


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Mediterranean Overview Market Update from an Area Ship Broker

Libya: Some shipments of Grains appear to bequoted out of Black Sea to Libya however rates being

indicated by charterers appear to be on the very lowside. Some sugar was also being quoted from Algeriainto Libya however most movements into Libyacontinue to be handled via Tunisia.

Tunisia: Gabes is now operating normally since 12August having been plagued by strikes over the pastfew weeks. Sfax presently has 14 ships under cargooperation and five waiting to berth. Cargo volumesappear to be slightly improving as strikes stop.

Egypt: Several lots of steel into Marmara, NorthSpain and Spanish Med are being offered on and off

market. The market seems subdued as a result ofRamadan fasting. Freights remain unchanged.

Greece: With 15 August a major holiday in Greece,activity this week has been very slow with somefresh cargoes appearing on and off market on Tues-day. Some vessels appear open on prompt basis.

Turkish Med: Steel continue to be quoted regularlyout of Turkish Med in sizes of 1/2/4/6,000 mt forvarious destinations within med, North Spain, EastMed and Black Sea. Freight remains stable.

Adriatic Market: Cargoes requoted from previousweeks are appearing on the market with fewer and

fewer takersas such most of the Adriatic sector wason holiday on Monday with some leftover cargoesfrom the previous week re-emerging on the scene.No ships have been found spot in the region.

West Coast Italy: Several vessels appear spot at WCItaly and vicinity. With Monday a holiday in Italythis was anticipated. Tuesday opened with severalcargoes having being re-quoted from previous week.

South Spain-Spanish Med: With Spain also onholiday on Monday the market opened on Tuesdaywith no fresh cargoes with the exceptions of some

cargoes from the week before being re-quoted thisweek. Some vessels have been seen spot in the area

French Med: Not much fresh activity to report onMonday as a result of the holiday Tuesday andWednesday the market opened with several cargoesbeing re-quoted from previous week and with somesigns of charterers improving on freights just slightlyin order to try and attract owners' interest.

Summary: With most of Europe on holiday Mon-day and with Ramadan in progress most of the medmarket opened up in hibernation. On Tuesday asmore brokers, charterers and owners started to lookat emails, activity picked up at a slightly better pacewith some fresh cargoes appearing. Several coasterowners have put tonnage on short term COA(s) inthe Black Sea at an early stage whilst the cargoes arethere to be had. But it remains to be seen how theshift of tonnage from the med into the Black Sea willweigh on the Mediterranean Sea market with asizeable amount of tonnage in lay-up, arrested or

scrapped. The market remains very volatile and it is

anyone's guess what to expect in the near term.Coaster owners now seem to be fighting for betterfreight with charterers in most occasions entertain-ing owners' figures when the need arises. Otherwisecharterers are holding off as long as they can beforecommitting to any particular vessel unless thefreight is justified. This has been on going for severalweeks now. So one might ask what's new. Well, thefact remains that owners are now reluctant to take just any positioning cargo into the Black Sea orballast tonnage realizing that freights in the Black Searegion are not yet at the levels they should be.

Dry Bulk Commodity News

On-port coal stocks are at their highest level of theyearincluding a high of 3.1 Mt at the Emo coalterminalas rising freight costs have delayed inlandtranshipment via the Rhine River. Prices are steady.

European coal prices stabilized with adequate sup-ply from Russia as October thermal fell US$ 1/mton Friday to US$ 125/mt, unchanged in the week.

European demand is set to remain stable, thoughGermany may increase imports in the near term.

Boding well for European steelmaking this year (andgeneral resource demand), German crudesteel pro-duction rose by 6.6% year-on-year in July to 3.7Mt,albeit just slightly below June's output. Year-to-dateGerman steel production rose a modest 3% to 27 Mt.

Global crop worries saw wheat futures rise aroundthe world, including US prices hitting two-month

highs and a 1% jump in the European benchmark,the Paris November contract, to over EUR 200/mt.
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Russian grain exports have been growing since theexport ban was lifted last month. Most volumes arefrom 2010 strategic reserves and, thus, are selling for

lower prices. Analysts expect that as soon as thesesupplies run out, prices for Russian grain will risesuch that US grain exports will be again competitive.

BMTI Sale and Purchase ReportWeek 34

Some interesting deals have taken place over the lastweek, predominantly in the Panamax and Handysizesizes with secondhand prices generally headingfurther south. Five-year-old Capesizes are now goingfor below US$ 39m, same age of Panamax is sellingat around US$ 28m and the Handysizes are dippingwell below US$ 26m. With these price levels formodern vessels at the moment, older tonnage thatneeds more bunker is nearly falling out of the game.

Demolition activity is being affected by the volatilityof the international financial markets with a general

expectation of prices to fall further in the near term.Thus, hesitation characterizes the current situation.Prices from the Indian subcontinent hover betweenUS$ 500-520/ldt with Chinese buyers still main-taining the gap of US$ 50. With the end of monsoonand Ramadan a possible resurgence of activity maycome in September to revive business again to theend of the year, as overcapacity may encouragescrapping. Uncertainty over Bangladesh's role in therecycling business following 12 October, however,will probably have some negative impact.

S&P general cargo"Medousa"| 15,794dwt| blt81|Brazil||4x10t crns|B&W|SS due Aug-15sold toSyrian byrs| USD2.6 mio"Atlant Regine"| 7,380dwt| blt96|Germany|461 TEU|2x250t crns|MAN|"Atlant Svenja"| 7,713dwt| blt96|Germany|461 TEU|2x250t crns|MAN|sold en bloctoundiscl. byrson private terms|"Nordertor"| 5,449dwt| blt98|China|511 TEU|2x40t crns|MAN|sold toEuropean byrs| USD4.5 mioForthcoming HolidaysDate Country

24 Aug 2011 Pakistan; Ukraine

25 Aug 2011 Ste/Languedoc-Roussillon (France); Heraklion/Crete (Greece); Uruguay

26 Aug 2011 Bangladesh; Ivory Coast; Namibia; Bilbao/Basque Country (Spain)

27 Aug 2011 Maceio/Alagoas (Brazil); Republic of Guinea

28 Aug 2011 Bangladesh; Georgia; Almeria/Andalucia; Aviles/Asturias (Spain)

2011 by BMTI gmbh, All Rights Reserved.

http://twitter.com/bmti_daily

BMTI Bunker Report Week 34Oil prices were pushing higher on NYMEX on Tues-day morning with light, sweet crude for Octoberdelivery showing US$ 85.68 per barrel while Brentcrude for October was trading around US$ 108.46per barrel at the same time. Newly released positiveeconomic data were causing some optimism. Amongthem was a slight improvement in China's HSBCPurchasing Managers' Index to 49.8 from 49.3 inJuly and the eurozone composite PMI holding steady

at 51.1 despite ongoing financial turbulence. Bunkerprices are rising in Antwerp especially for middledistillate product. Tight avails for high sulphurproduct are reported for Rotterdam with some bargecongestion, but stocks are expected to recover soon.Las Palmas is also announcing higher prices withearliest delivery dates possible from 28 Augustonwards. Moderate buying interest is said to prevailin Piraeus with good supply and barging situation.
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bmti short sea report 2011wk33

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