bmj open · for peer review only 13 figure 1: study selection based on prisma 2009 flow diagram256...

BMJ Open is committed to open peer review. As part of this commitment we make the peer review

history of every article we publish publicly available.

When an article is published we post the peer reviewers’ comments and the authors’ responses

online. We also post the versions of the paper that were used during peer review. These are the

versions that the peer review comments apply to.

The versions of the paper that follow are the versions that were submitted during the peer review

process. They are not the versions of record or the final published versions. They should not be cited

or distributed as the published version of this manuscript.

BMJ Open is an open access journal and the full, final, typeset and author-corrected version of

record of the manuscript is available on our site with no access controls, subscription charges or pay-

per-view fees (http://bmjopen.bmj.com).

If you have any questions on BMJ Open’s open peer review process please email

[email protected]

on Septem

ber 1, 2020 by guest. Protected by copyright.

http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM

J Open: first published as 10.1136/bm

jopen-2018-023071 on 5 Septem

ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from

http://bmjopen.bmj.com/

mailto:[email protected]


For peer review only

SPATIO - TEMPORAL MODELLING ASSESSING THE BURDEN

OF MALARIA IN AFFECTED LOW AND MIDDLE-INCOME

COUNTRIES A SCOPING REVIEW PROTOCOL

Journal: BMJ Open

Manuscript ID bmjopen-2018-023071

Article Type: Protocol

Date Submitted by the Author: 21-Mar-2018

Complete List of Authors: Odhiambo, Julius; University of KwaZulu-Natal College of Health Sciences, School of Nursing and Public Health, Department of Public Health Medicine Sartorius, Benn; UKZN, School of Nursing and Public Health, Department of

Public Health Medicine

Keywords: Spatio – temporal, Malaria, modelling, elimination, LMICs

For peer review only - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml

BMJ Open

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



1

Title Page 1

SPATIO - TEMPORAL MODELLING ASSESSING THE BURDEN OF MALARIA IN 2

AFFECTED LOW AND MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES A SCOPING REVIEW 3

PROTOCOL 4

Author’s information 5

Julius Nyerere Odhiambo1 [email protected] 6

Benn Sartorius1 [email protected] 7

1University of KwaZulu-Natal, Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and 8

Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Durban, South Africa. 9

Corresponding Author: Julius Nyerere Odhiambo 10

Address: 2nd Floor George Campbell Building, Howard College Campus, University of 11

KwaZulu Natal, Durban, 4001, South Africa 12

Email address: [email protected] 13

14

15

Number of words: 1982 16

Number of references: 31 17

Page 1 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



2

Abstract 18

Introduction 19

Spatio – temporal modelling of malaria has proven to be a valuable tool for forecasting as well as 20

control and elimination activities. This has been triggered by an increasing availability of 21

spatially indexed data, enabling not only the characterization of malaria at macro and micro-22

spatial levels but also the development of geospatial techniques and tools that enable health 23

policy planners to utilize these available data more effectively. However, there has been little 24

synthesis regarding the variety of spatio – temporal approaches employed, covariates employed 25

and “best practice” type recommendations to guide future modelling decisions. This review will 26

seek to summarize available evidence on the current state of spatio – temporal modelling 27

approaches that have been employed in malaria modelling in Low and Middle-Income Countries 28

(LMICs) within malaria transmission limits, so as to guide future modelling decisions. 29

Methods and analysis 30

Comprehensive searches of electronic databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, JSTOR, 31

Cochrane CENTRAL via Wiley, Academic Search Complete via EBSCOhost, Masterfile 32

Premier via EBSCOhost, CINHAL via EBSCOhost, MEDLINE via EBSCOhost and Google 33

Scholar will be performed. Relevant grey literature sources such as unpublished reports, 34

conference proceedings, dissertations will be incorporated in the search. Two reviewers will 35

independently conduct the title screening, abstract screening, and thereafter a full-text review of 36

all potentially eligible articles. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-37

Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines will be utilized as the standard reporting format. A qualitative 38

thematic analysis will be used to group selected studies around their aim, spatio - temporal 39

methodology employed, covariates utilized and model validation techniques. 40

Ethics and dissemination 41

Ethical approval is not applicable to this study. The results will be disseminated through a peer-42

reviewed journal and presented in conferences related to malaria and spatial epidemiology. 43

PROSPERO registration number: CRD42017076427 44

Keywords: Malaria, spatio – temporal modelling, elimination, LMICs 45

Page 2 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



3

Strength and Limitations of this Study 46

� The review will summarize and compare existing approaches and develop a consolidated 47

“best practice” conceptual model of the methods and covariates to be incorporated in 48

malaria modelling for control and elimination activities in LMICs. 49

� A comprehensive search strategy will be developed in collaboration with an information 50

specialist versed in research databases 51

� The review will have no language limitation. 52

� A limitation of the scoping review is that the quality of the evidence and risk of bias will 53

not be evaluated. 54

55

Introduction 56

Malaria is a global public health problem and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low 57

and middle income countries (LMICs). It is estimated that 3.2 billion of the world population are 58

living in malaria prone regions in 91 countries and territories. Global efforts towards sustaining 59

and accelerating the reduction of malaria have been prioritized in endemic regions of Sub – 60

Saharan Africa, the Americas, Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and South – East Asia. 61

Studies conducted between 2000 and 2016 have reported substantial progress towards the control 62

and elimination of malaria in endemic countries in the world 1-4. However, an estimated 216 63

million clinical episodes of malaria and 445,000 deaths were reported worldwide in 2016 4, with 64

the burden being disproportionately high in children under five and pregnant women in LMICs 4. 65

The Global Technical Strategy for Malaria (2016 -2030) seeks to sustainably reduce malaria 66

attributable cases and deaths by 90% in 2030, by incorporating surveillance as a core 67

intervention strategy 5. Surveillance encompasses disease tracking, programmatic responses, and 68

data analysis; geared towards assessing the disease trends for optimal response 6. According to a 69

study conducted by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016, delivering targeted interventions 70

may be the most cost-effective strategy for improving health outcomes 7. Thus identifying the 71

burden of malaria in its geographical heterogeneity has been a priority for research in endemic 72

regions of LMICs 8-11

. This has been boosted by advances in geographic information systems 73

(GIS), remotely sensed satellite data and renewed interest in establishing precise estimates of 74

Page 3 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



4

morbidity and mortality in both space and time 12. A recent study, covering the period between 75

1900 and 2015, reported a disproportionate geographic decline in malaria transmission intensity 76

within countries in SSA 13, highlighting the need for interventions to be commensurate with the 77

unequal burden of disease within a country 14. According to Kazembe et al (2006), evidence-78

based resource utilization is an important avenue for the control and elimination of malaria in 79

high burden countries 15. Growing evidence has made a persuasive case for the incorporation of 80

comprehensive baseline risk maps to help guide to malaria control strategies 16. This has been 81

further fueled by the increasing availability of digital topographical, climatic and population data 82

in LMICs 17. 83

Efficient implementation and targeting of healthcare interventions for a disease is anchored on a 84

better understanding of its spatial – temporal dynamics 18. The dynamic global landscape of 85

malaria and enhanced computational power, has led to an urgent demand for more reliable, 86

elaborate and refined representation of the ever changing malaria risk pattern 19 20

as well 87

quantifying the sustainability of interventions 1. This has led to the advent of malaria health data 88

indexed at a fine geographical resolution 21 necessitating the incorporation of robust statistical 89

methodology to capture the emerging trends in space and time 22. A multitude of descriptive to 90

advanced spatio–temporal methods have since been employed to provide not only a 91

comprehensive characterization of uncertainty but also offer substantive insights into the major 92

factors influencing the changes 22. Increased abundance and diversity of potential malaria 93

covariate layers necessitates the need for robust variables selection techniques to be utilized so as 94

maximize the predictive power of the spatio – temporal models 22-24

. 95

There is a growing body of literature regarding spatiotemporal analytical techniques employed in 96

malaria modelling as well as growth in the availability of georeferenced data. The variety and 97

strengths/limitations of approaches and covariates employed requires a comprehensive review to 98

identify best methods and compare results to inform future studies. 99

In order to achieve this, the review primarily seeks to: 100

i. Identify and describe current spatio – temporal approaches used in malaria modelling. 101

ii. Identify and evaluate useful covariates that have been employed in spatio-temporal 102

modelling of malaria. 103

Page 4 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



5

iii. To develop a consolidated “best practice” conceptual model of the methods and 104

covariates to be incorporated in malaria modelling. 105

Methods of analysis 106

The title and synopsis of this this proposed scoping review has been registered on the 107

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews database 108

(http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO), registration number (CRD42017076427). 109

The scoping review will be conducted in different stages as suggested by Arksey and O’Malley 110

25 and advanced further by Levac et al (2010)

26 27. This framework entails articulating the 111

research question to guide the scope of inquiry, methodologically identifying relevant studies 112

utilizing spatio – temporal approaches, iteratively selecting the studies, comprehensively 113

extracting the data, distinctly collating, summarizing and reporting the results. 114

115

I. Identifying the research question 116

What types of spatio – temporal analysis approaches have been employed for assessing the 117

burden of malaria in endemic settings of LMICs? 118

The research sub-questions are: 119

• Which spatial analysis techniques have been employed to assess space time burden of 120

malaria? 121

• How is data integrated from multiple sources and study designs? 122

• Which covariates that have been most utilized/useful for spatial-temporal modelling of 123

malaria? 124

• Which methods have been utilized to identify spatial variation? 125

• What validation tools have been used to verify the predictive accuracy of a given modelling 126

approach? 127

128

Eligibility of the research question 129

Page 5 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



6

The study will employ the Population, Concept and Context (PCC) framework to determine the 130

eligibility of the research question 28. The following table defines the criteria related to each 131

component in more detail: 132

Table 1: PCC framework for determination of eligibility of review question 133

PCC Framework for determination of eligibility of the review questions

Criteria Determinant

Population All studies utilizing spatio – temporal modelling approaches

Concept GIS, spatial visualization techniques, Spatio –temporal modelling, cluster

detection techniques, covariate selection

Context Time frame: All publications from 1968 – 2018 are to be included. The

starting year of1968 has been tentatively chose as this was when the first

global audit of malaria endemicity was undertaken. 8 22 29

.

Geography: LMICs with current or past malaria transmission

Language of publication: No language restrictions

134

II. Identifying Relevant Studies 135

Eligible studies/reports will be identified through a primary keyword search in the following 136

electronic databases; PubMed, Web of Science, JSTOR, Cochrane CENTRAL via Wiley. 137

Academic Search Complete via EBSCOhost, Masterfile Premier via EBSCOhost, CINHAL via 138

EBSCOhost, MEDLINE via EBSCOhost and Google Scholar. Grey literature sources will also 139

be searched for missing publications. Combinations of MeSH terms in MEDLINE and other 140

indexed keywords will be utilized when conducting the primary search in different databases so 141

as to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the search. 142

The keywords will be developed thematically to cover the following aspects of the review; 143

• Malaria (e.g. incidence, prevalence) 144

• Geographic tools (e.g. remote sensing, GIS, mapping) 145

• Malaria risk factors/covariates/predictors 146

• Spatial, spatio-temporal models and cluster analysis 147

• Surveillance and monitoring 148

Page 6 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



7

The search strategy will be developed and piloted to identify the optimal combination of 149

keywords to be used (Table 2 will be developed as part of the audit process). An example of a 150

preliminary search that has been conducted by the lead author can be found in the appendix 151

(Supplementary Table 1) Identified studies will then be exported into EndNote reference 152

manager version X7 (Clarivate Analytics, Philadelphia, PA, USA). An EndNote database will be 153

created and will also be utilized to remove duplicate articles. 154

155

Database Date of Search Keywords Used Number of

publications

identified

PubMed

Search #1:

Search #2:

Search #3:

#

Table 2: Electronic search record 156

III. Study Selection 157

Preliminary eligibility criterion have been developed to select studies that utilized spatio – 158

temporal approaches for assessing the burden of malaria (Table 3). 159

Inclusion Criteria

Studies will be included if they explicitly meet the

following criteria

Exclusion Criteria

The following exclusion criteria will be applied:

Page 7 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



8

i. Use of at least one spatio – temporal modelling

technique for assessing the burden of malaria.

ii. Employed covariates in the spatio – temporal

modelling of malaria.

iii. Published between January 1, 1968 and

December 31, 2018. Our selection of 1968 is

guided by the year that the first global audit of

malaria endemicity was undertaken. 8 22 29

.

i. Studies that focus on other diseases other than

malaria.

ii. Studies which do not utilize spatio – temporal

modelling approaches for burden of malaria

assessment

Table 3: Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria 160

The review team will be guided by a librarian based at University of KwaZulu Natal (UKZN) to 161

help retrieve articles from the selected databases. The reviewers will also contact corresponding 162

authors for clarification on missing information and/or unpublished data. 163

Two reviewers will independently conduct title and abstract screening to identify potentially 164

publications. All publications identified where at least one reviewer deemed eligible will enter 165

into the full text review stage. A full text review of all eligible articles will again be conducted 166

by two independent reviewers. A third reviewer (arbitrator) will be used to resolve any 167

discrepancies. A Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta – Analyses 168

(PRISMA) flowchart (Figure 1) will be used to highlight the study selection procedure 30. 169

170

IV. Data Extraction 171

A standardized and pilot tested data extraction form will be used to ensure standardized and 172

consistent extraction of meta-data from selected publications. A data extraction form indicating 173

the study’s bibliographic information, the study aims, methodology, results, discussion, 174

conclusion and recommendation will be used (Table 4). Descriptive analytical methods will also 175

be used to summarize the study findings 25. 176

1. Bibliographic information

• Study ID

Page 8 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



9

• Author, Year

• Country

• Article Title

• Language

• Study period (Start – End)

• Data Source

(Medical records, multiple sources, program data, clinical data for the study, others)

• Type of publication

(Journal article, book chapter, grey literature).

• Primary unit of analysis

(cluster, individual, more than one unit, other)

• Study population/Spatial unit

(Household, national, province, district facility, malaria case, census tract, other)

2. Aims

Study aims and objectives

3. Methodology

• Data sources used, multiples sources employed, different study designs and sampling

frames employed

• Visualization techniques

• Cluster Detection Techniques

• Covariate(s) Selection

• Spatial-temporal modelling approach

4. Results (Does the paper report data relating to the following?)

Key findings

Unexpected results

5. Discussion

Key findings

Unexpected results

Modelling gap(s)

Limitations

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

Page 9 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



10

Modelling issues requiring further attention

Suggestions for improved analytical approaches for future studies

177

Table 4: Data Extraction Form 178

V. Collating, Summarizing and Reporting Results 179

This stage will entail three distinct steps namely; analysis, reporting of results and applying 180

meaning to the results. The analytical approach will entail a descriptive numerical summary of 181

total number of studies included, study design, publication year, type of covariates, study setting 182

and the characteristics of the study population. Additionally, a qualitative thematic analysis will 183

be used to group selected studies around their aim, spatio - temporal methodology employed, 184

covariates utilized, and model diagnostics/validation. Results will be reported in line with the 185

purpose of the review. Tables showing the different data sources, visualization techniques, 186

covariates, cluster – detection techniques and spatio – temporal methods will be developed. 187

Practical implications of the scoping review for malaria research, policy and modelling practices 188

will be discussed against the gaps in the current state of spatio –temporal methodological 189

approaches identified in this proposed review. 190

Quality Appraisal 191

The quality of studies included in the review will be assessed using a mixed method appraisal 192

tool (MMAT) 31. The appraisal will be undertaken by two independent reviewers. Screening 193

questions will be developed to check the appropriateness of the study design, methodological 194

approach, data analysis, presentation of findings and the authors’ discussions. A scoring system 195

will be utilized for the aforementioned process to group study in low, medium and high quality 196

study strata. 197

Patient and Public Involvement 198

Patients are not to be involved in the study. 199

Discussion 200

Page 10 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



11

Spatial – temporal modelling is relevant to any disease with elements of environmental 201

causation. Enhanced computational ability has created an ideal environment for the upsurge of 202

spatio – temporal epidemiologic applications incorporating both space, time and large datasets. 203

With these advances, numerous studies have used diverse data sources, adopted various 204

visualization techniques for basic visualization/data exploratory techniques to advanced 205

Bayesian geo - statistical modelling, as well as leverage various covariates in these spatio 206

temporal models to improve fit and predict at un-sampled locations. Despite the development 207

and utilization of diverse spatio – temporal methods in malaria epidemiology, limited appraisal 208

has been done of the multitude of spatial methodologies that have been employed, the covariates 209

leveraged and an assessment of robustness and operational practicality of implementing these 210

complex techniques in resource limited settings. 211

The catalogue and appraisal of spatio – temporal malaria modelling approaches will thus; 212

provide conceptual clarity, methodological rigor, transparency and build a recommendation 213

framework for future research in this domain and help guide “best practice” with regards to 214

spatial – temporal modelling techniques in a given context. This review will also attempt to 215

synthesis the range of techniques that have been employed and thus help to improve the 216

understanding of spatio- temporal methods for health applications among researchers. We 217

anticipate the review to also benefit policy makers, epidemiologists and ecologists who are 218

involved in malaria research. 219

220

Abbreviations 221

PRISMA - Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta – Analyses. 222

WHO - World Health Organization 223

SSA – Sub Saharan Africa 224

LMICs - Low and Middle Income Countries 225

GBD - Global Burden of Disease 226

MMAT – Mixed methods appraisal tool 227

Page 11 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



12

Acknowledgements 228

The authors would like to appreciate the College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-229

Natal for financially supporting the development of this research study. 230

Funding 231

The University of KwaZulu-Natal, College of Health Sciences PhD Scholarship funded this 232

systematic scoping review. 233

Availability of data and materials 234

All data generated and analyzed during the review process will be included in the published 235

systematic scoping review article 236

237

Author contributions 238

JNO conceptualized the study and prepared the draft review under the supervision of BS. 239

Both JNO and BS contributed to the development of the background and planned output of the 240

research as well as the design of the review protocol. BS contributed to the development of the 241

methods relating to the review and synthesis of data including the sifting and data extraction 242

process. JNO prepared the manuscript, and BS reviewed it. Both authors contributed to the 243

reviewed draft version of the manuscript and approved the final version 244

245

Competing interests 246

None 247

248

Consent for publication 249

Not applicable 250

251

Ethics approval and consent to participate 252

Not applicable. 253

254

Figure Legend 255

Page 12 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



13

Figure 1: Study Selection based on PRISMA 2009 flow diagram 256

References 257

1. Noor AM, Kinyoki DK, Mundia CW, et al. The changing risk of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection 258

in Africa: 2000–10: a spatial and temporal analysis of transmission intensity. The Lancet 259

2014;383(9930):1739-47. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62566-0 260

2. World Health Organization, World Malaria Report 2015,. 2016. 261

3. Cibulskis RE, Alonso P, Aponte J, et al. Malaria: global progress 2000–2015 and future challenges. 262

Infectious diseases of poverty 2016;5(1):61. 263

4. World Health Organization, World Malaria Report 2016, 2017. 264

5. World Health Organization. Global malaria control and elimination: report of a technical review. 2015 265

6. Hemingway J, Shretta R, Wells TN, et al. Tools and strategies for malaria control and elimination: what 266

do we need to achieve a grand convergence in malaria? PLoS biology 2016;14(3) 267

7. Hay SI, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, et al. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years 268

(DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and 269

territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 270

2016. The Lancet 2017;390(10100):1260-344. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32130-X 271

8. Snow RW, Marsh K, Le Sueur D. The need for maps of transmission intensity to guide malaria control 272

in Africa. Parasitology today 1996;12(12):455-57. 273

9. Hay SI, Guerra CA, Tatem AJ, et al. The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, 274

present, and future. The Lancet infectious diseases 2004;4(6):327-36. 275

10. Murray CJ, Lopez AD. Mortality by cause for eight regions of the world: Global Burden of Disease 276

Study. The lancet 1997;349(9061):1269-76. 277

11. Murray CJ, Lopez AD, Organization WH. The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment 278

of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020: 279

summary. 1996 280

12. Alegana VA, Wright J, Bosco C, et al. Malaria prevalence metrics in low-and middle-income countries: 281

an assessment of precision in nationally-representative surveys. Malaria journal 2017;16(1):475. 282

13. Snow RW, Sartorius B, Kyalo D, et al. The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa 283

since 1900. Nature 2017;550(7677):515. 284

14. Thiam S, Kimotho V, Gatonga P. Why are IPTp coverage targets so elusive in sub-Saharan Africa? A 285

systematic review of health system barriers. Malaria Journal 2013;12(1):1-7. doi: 10.1186/1475-286

2875-12-353 287

15. Kazembe LN, Muula AS, Appleton CC, et al. Modelling the effect of malaria endemicity on spatial 288

variations in childhood fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia in Malawi. International journal of 289

health geographics 2007;6(1):33. 290

16. Riedel N, Vounatsou P, Miller JM, et al. Geographical patterns and predictors of malaria risk in 291

Zambia: Bayesian geostatistical modelling of the 2006 Zambia national malaria indicator survey 292

(ZMIS). Malaria Journal 2010;9(1):37. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-9-37 293

17. Snow RW, Gouws E, Omumbo J, et al. Models to predict the intensity of Plasmodium falciparum 294

transmission: applications to the burden of disease in Kenya. Transactions of the Royal Society of 295

Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 1998;92(6):601-06. 296

18. Sartorius B, Kahn K, Vounatsou P, et al. Space and time clustering of mortality in rural South Africa 297

(Agincourt HDSS), 1992–2007. Global health action 2010;3(1):5225. 298

Page 13 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



14

19. Gething PW, Patil AP, Hay SI. Quantifying aggregated uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum malaria 299

prevalence and populations at risk via efficient space-time geostatistical joint simulation. PLoS 300

computational biology 2010;6(4):e1000724. 301

20. Weiss DJ, Mappin B, Dalrymple U, et al. Re-examining environmental correlates of Plasmodium 302

falciparum malaria endemicity: a data-intensive variable selection approach. Malaria journal 303

2015;14(1):68. 304

21. Best N, Richardson S, Thomson A. A comparison of Bayesian spatial models for disease mapping. 305

Statistical Methods in Medical Research 2005;14(1):35-59. doi: 10.1191/0962280205sm388oa 306

22. Dalrymple U, Mappin B, Gething PW. Malaria mapping: understanding the global endemicity of 307

falciparum and vivax malaria. BMC medicine 2015;13:140. doi: 10.1186/s12916-015-0372-x 308

23. Vounatsou P, Raso G, Tanner M, et al. Bayesian geostatistical modelling for mapping schistosomiasis 309

transmission. Parasitology 2009;136(13):1695-705. 310

24. Gosoniu L, Vounatsou P, Sogoba N, et al. Bayesian modelling of geostatistical malaria risk data. 311

Geospatial health 2006;1(1):127-39. 312

25. Arksey H, O'Malley L. Scoping studies: towards a methodological framework. International journal of 313

social research methodology 2005;8(1):19-32. 314

26. Levac D, Colquhoun H, O'Brien KK. Scoping studies: advancing the methodology. Implementation 315

Science 2010;5(1):69. 316

27. Pham MT, Rajić A, Greig JD, et al. A scoping review of scoping reviews: advancing the approach and 317

enhancing the consistency. Research synthesis methods 2014;5(4):371-85. 318

28. Peters M, Godfrey C, McInerney P, et al. The Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewers' Manual 2015: 319

Methodology for JBI Scoping Reviews. 2015 320

29. Lysenko A, Semashko I. Geography of malaria. A medico-geographic profile of an ancient disease. 321

Itogi Nauki: Medicinskaja Geografija 1968:25-146. 322

30. Tricco AC, Lillie E, Zarin W, et al. A scoping review on the conduct and reporting of scoping reviews. 323

BMC Medical Research Methodology 2016;16:15. doi: 10.1186/s12874-016-0116-4 324

31. Pace R, Pluye P, Bartlett G, et al. Testing the reliability and efficiency of the pilot Mixed Methods 325

Appraisal Tool (MMAT) for systematic mixed studies review. International journal of nursing 326

studies 2012;49(1):47-53. 327

328

Page 14 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



Study Selection based on PRISMA 2009 flow diagram

258x309mm (96 x 96 DPI)

Page 15 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



Appendix

Supplementary Table 1: Electronic search preliminary results

Database Date of Search Keywords Number of

publications

identified

PubMed

12/3/2018 (((spatio temporal OR

spatial OR map* OR

Bayes*)) AND

(malaria OR

plasmodium))

2278

Page 16 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



PRISMA 2009 ChecklistPRISMA 2009 ChecklistPRISMA 2009 ChecklistPRISMA 2009 Checklist

Section/topic # Checklist item Reported on page #

TITLE

Title 1 Identify the report as a systematic review, meta-analysis, or both. 1

ABSTRACT

Structured summary 2 Provide a structured summary including, as applicable: background; objectives; data sources; study eligibility criteria, participants, and interventions; study appraisal and synthesis methods; results; limitations; conclusions and implications of key findings; systematic review registration number.

2-3

INTRODUCTION

Rationale 3 Describe the rationale for the review in the context of what is already known. 3-4

Objectives 4 Provide an explicit statement of questions being addressed with reference to participants, interventions, comparisons, outcomes, and study design (PICOS).

4

METHODS

Protocol and registration 5 Indicate if a review protocol exists, if and where it can be accessed (e.g., Web address), and, if available, provide registration information including registration number.

5

Eligibility criteria 6 Specify study characteristics (e.g., PICOS, length of follow-up) and report characteristics (e.g., years considered,

language, publication status) used as criteria for eligibility, giving rationale. 6-7

Information sources 7 Describe all information sources (e.g., databases with dates of coverage, contact with study authors to identify additional studies) in the search and date last searched.

6

Search 8 Present full electronic search strategy for at least one database, including any limits used, such that it could be repeated.

7

Study selection 9 State the process for selecting studies (i.e., screening, eligibility, included in systematic review, and, if applicable,

included in the meta-analysis). 7- 8

Data collection process 10 Describe method of data extraction from reports (e.g., piloted forms, independently, in duplicate) and any processes for obtaining and confirming data from investigators.

8 - 9

Data items 11 List and define all variables for which data were sought (e.g., PICOS, funding sources) and any assumptions and simplifications made.

6, 13

Risk of bias in individual studies

12 Describe methods used for assessing risk of bias of individual studies (including specification of whether this was done at the study or outcome level), and how this information is to be used in any data synthesis.

9 - 10

Summary measures 13 State the principal summary measures (e.g., risk ratio, difference in means). N/A

Synthesis of results 14 Describe the methods of handling data and combining results of studies, if done, including measures of consistency (e.g., I

2) for each meta-analysis.

9 - 10

Page 17 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on September 1, 2020 by guest. Protected by copyright. http://bmjopen.bmj.com/ BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-023071 on 5 September 2018. Downloaded from



PRISMA 2009 ChecklistPRISMA 2009 ChecklistPRISMA 2009 ChecklistPRISMA 2009 Checklist

Page 1 of 2

Section/topic # Checklist item Reported on page #

Risk of bias across studies 15 Specify any assessment of risk of bias that may affect the cumulative evidence (e.g., publication bias, selective reporting within studies).

N/A

Additional analyses 16 Describe methods of additional analyses (e.g., sensitivity or subgroup analyses, meta-regression), if done, indicating which were pre-specified.

N/A

RESULTS

Study selection 17 Give numbers of studies screened, assessed for eligibility, and included in the review, with reasons for exclusions at each stage, ideally with a flow diagram.

9

Study characteristics 18 For each study, present characteristics for which data were extracted (e.g., study size, PICOS, follow-up period) and provide the citations.

8 - 9

Risk of bias within studies 19 Present data on risk of bias of each study and, if available, any outcome level assessment (see item 12). N/A

Results of individual studies 20 For all outcomes considered (benefits or harms), present, for each study: (a) simple summary data for each intervention group (b) effect estimates and confidence intervals, ideally with a forest plot.

N/A

Synthesis of results 21 Present results of each meta-analysis done, including confidence intervals and measures of consistency. N/A

Risk of bias across studies 22 Present results of any assessment of risk of bias across studies (see Item 15). N/A

Additional analysis 23 Give results of additional analyses, if done (e.g., sensitivity or subgroup analyses, meta-regression [see Item 16]). N/A

DISCUSSION

Summary of evidence 24 Summarize the main findings including the strength of evidence for each main outcome; consider their relevance to key groups (e.g., healthcare providers, users, and policy makers).

9 -10

Limitations 25 Discuss limitations at study and outcome level (e.g., risk of bias), and at review-level (e.g., incomplete retrieval of identified research, reporting bias).

10 - 11

Conclusions 26 Provide a general interpretation of the results in the context of other evidence, and implications for future research. 10 - 11

FUNDING

Funding 27 Describe sources of funding for the systematic review and other support (e.g., supply of data); role of funders for the systematic review.

11

From: Moher D, Liberati A, Tetzlaff J, Altman DG, The PRISMA Group (2009). Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: The PRISMA Statement. PLoS Med 6(6): e1000097. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed1000097

For more information, visit: www.prisma-statement.org.

Page 2 of 2

Page 18 of 18


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960







Journal: BMJ Open

Manuscript ID bmjopen-2018-023071.R1


Date Submitted by the Author: 12-Jul-2018



<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:

Epidemiology

Secondary Subject Heading: Public health, Infectious diseases, Health informatics



BMJ Open

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



1

Title Page 1


AFFECTED LOW AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES A SCOPING REVIEW 3

PROTOCOL 4




1Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, College of Health 8

Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa. 9



KwaZulu Natal, Durban, 4001, South Africa. 12


14

15



Page 1 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



2

Abstract 18

Introduction 19












A comprehensive search for articles published from January 1968 – April 2018 will be 31

conducted using of the following electronic databases: PubMed, Web of Science, JSTOR, 32



Scholar. Relevant grey literature sources such as unpublished reports, conference proceedings, 35

dissertations will also be incorporated in the search. Two reviewers will independently conduct 36

the title screening, abstract screening, and thereafter a full-text review of all potentially eligible 37

articles. Preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA - 38

P) guidelines will be utilized as the standard reporting format. A qualitative thematic analysis 39

will be used to group selected studies around their aim, spatio - temporal methodology 40

employed, covariates utilized and model validation techniques. 41





Page 2 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



3






� The results of the review may inform future malaria spatio-temporal modelling decisions. 51

� A comprehensive search strategy will be developed in collaboration with an information 52

specialist versed in research databases 53

� The review will have no language limitation. 54

55

Introduction 56


and middle income countries (LMICs). It is estimated that 3.2 billion of the world population are 58

living in malaria prone regions in 91 countries and territories. Global efforts towards sustaining 59
















Page 3 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



4








comprehensive baseline risk maps to help guide to malaria control strategies 16. This has been 81


in LMICs 17. 83

Efficient implementation and targeting of healthcare interventions for a disease is anchored on a 84

better understanding of its spatial – temporal dynamics 18. The dynamic global landscape of 85



as well 87

quantifying the sustainability and impact of anti-malaria interventions 1. This has led to the 88

advent of malaria health data indexed at a fine geographical resolution 21 necessitating the 89

incorporation of robust statistical methodology to capture the emerging trends in space and time 90

22. A multitude of descriptive to advanced spatio–temporal methods have since been employed to 91

provide not only a comprehensive characterization of uncertainty but also offer substantive 92

insights into the major factors influencing the changes 22. Increased abundance and diversity of 93

potential malaria covariate layers necessitates the need for robust variables selection techniques 94

to be utilized so as maximize the predictive power of the spatio – temporal models 22-24

. 95



strengths/limitations of approaches and covariates employed requires a comprehensive review to 98

identify best methods and compare results to inform future studies. 99





Page 4 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



5




The title and synopsis of this this proposed scoping review has been registered on the 107

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews database 108

(http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO), registration number (CRD42017076427). 109







115





• Which analysis techniques have been employed to assess the space time burden of malaria? 120

• How is primary data integrated from multiple sources and study designs? 121

• Which covariates have been most utilized/useful for the spatial-temporal modelling of 122

malaria? 123



approach? 126

127


Page 5 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



6



component in more detail (Table 1): 131




Population Empirical studies utilizing spatio – temporal modelling approaches




starting year of 1968 has been tentatively chose as this was when the first


.


Language of publication: No language restrictions

133



electronic databases: PubMed, Web of Science, JSTOR, Cochrane CENTRAL via Wiley. 136







• Malaria (e.g. incidence, prevalence, morbidity, mortality) 143





Page 6 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



7


keywords to be used (Table 2). Identified studies will then be exported into EndNote reference 149



Table 2: Electronic search preliminary results 152

153


publications

retrieved

PubMed

28/3/2018 (malaria OR plasmodium) 97492

(malaria OR plasmodium) AND (map* OR

geographic information systems OR GIS OR global

positioning system OR GPS)

1078



positioning system OR GPS) AND (spatial OR

space-time OR space* OR spatio-temporal OR

spatio* OR spatial cluster OR small area OR small-

area OR bayesian OR geo statistical OR modelling)

352

Limit publication year from 1968 to 2018 352

154


Preliminary eligibility criterion have been developed to select studies that utilized spatio – 156


158

159

160

161

Page 7 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



8


163

Inclusion Criteria


following criteria:

Exclusion Criteria


i. Use of at least one visualization and/or modelling

technique (with or without covariates) for

assessing malaria burden in space and time.

ii. Published between January 1, 1968 and



malaria endemicity was undertaken.

i. Studies that focus on other diseases other

than malaria.

ii. Studies based on qualitative expert reviews.

164






into the full text review stage. A full text review of all eligible articles will again be conducted 170








Page 8 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



9





• Study ID

• Author, Year

• Country

• Article Title

• Language


• Data Source








2. Aims


3. Methodology


frames employed






Key findings

Unexpected results

Page 9 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



10

5. Discussion

Key findings

Unexpected results

Modelling gap(s)

Limitations




181




total number of studies included, study design, publication year, type of covariates, study setting 185

and the characteristics of the study population. Additionally, a qualitative thematic analysis will 186

be used to group selected studies around their aim, spatio - temporal methodology employed, 187

covariates utilized, and model diagnostics/validation. Results will be reported in line with the 188

purpose of the review. Tables showing the different data sources, visualization techniques, 189

covariates, cluster – detection techniques and spatio – temporal methods will be developed. 190







questions will be developed to check the appropriateness of the study design, methodological 197

approach, data analysis, presentation of findings and the authors’ discussions. A scoring system 198

will be utilized for the aforementioned process to group studies in low, medium and high quality 199

study strata as provided in table 532. 200

Page 10 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



11

Table 5: Quality appraisal of individual studies. 201

202

203



Discussion 206


causation. Enhanced computational ability has created an ideal environment for the upsurge of 208

spatio – temporal epidemiologic applications incorporating both space, time and large datasets. 209

With these advances, numerous studies have used diverse data sources, adopted various 210








Quality appraisal was assessed using a 10-point scoring system quality assessment tool for cross-sectional studies

The total quality score varied between 0 and 10 where 1-4 = (Low); 5-7 = (Moderate) and 8-10 = (High)

Introduction Methods Results Discussions TOTAL

Author/Year

/Coun

try Langu

age/St

udy period

stated

(1) Clear

definit

ion of objecti

ves/ai

ms/research

questions

(2) Study

desig

n appro

priate

for the

stated aims

(3) Data

manage

ment (Data

type/pre-

processing/Misalig

nment

(4) Cluster

detectio

n/Visualization

techniqu

es mention

ed

(5) Malaria risk

factors and

covariates measured

correctly

using instruments

that had been trialled,

piloted or

published previously

(6) Analysis

methods

(including diagnostic

tool)

sufficiently described to

enable replicability

(7) Results

for

analysis describe

d in the

methods presente

d

(8) Authors

discussi

ons and conclusi

ons

justified by

results

(9) Important

findings/Lim

itations of the

study/unexpe

cted results discussed

(10) Reported

modelling

issues requiring

further

attention.

Scores (0 – 10)

Page 11 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



12


provide conceptual clarity, methodological rigor, transparency and build a recommendation 219







226

Abbreviations 227










Funding 237






Page 12 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



13

243

244








252


None 254

255


Not applicable 257

258

Ethics and Dissemination 259

Ethical approval will not be required for the scoping review as this is a secondary data extraction 260

and analysis of published peer-reviewed literature. The findings from this proposed scoping 261

review will be submitted in a peer reviewed journal and included in the lead’s author doctoral 262

dissertation. 263

264

Figure Legend 265


267

268

269

270

Page 13 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



14

271

272

273

References 274




2. Organization WH. World Malaria Report 2015. 2016. 278



4. World Health Organization W. World malaria report 2016. 2017. 281

5. WHO WHO. Global malaria control and elimination: report of a technical review. 2015 282






2016. The Lancet 2017;390(10100):1260-344. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32130-X 288






Study. The lancet 1997;349(9061):1269-76. 294



summary. 1996 297




since 1900. Nature 2017;550(7677):515. 301



2875-12-353 304










Page 14 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



15








2015;14(1):68. 321












Science 2010;5(1):69. 333











studies 2012;49(1):47-53. 344

32. Downes MJ, Brennan ML, Williams HC, et al. Development of a critical appraisal tool to assess the 345

quality of cross-sectional studies (AXIS). BMJ open 2016;6(12):e011458. 346

347

Page 15 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from




37x44mm (600 x 600 DPI)

Page 16 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



PRISMA-P (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis Protocols) 2015 checklist: recommended items to

address in a systematic review protocol*

Section and topic Item No Checklist item Information reported Reported on

page # Yes No

ADMINISTRATIVE INFORMATION

Title:

Identification 1a Identify the report as a protocol of a systematic review X 1

Update 1b If the protocol is for an update of a previous systematic review, identify as such N/A

Registration 2 If registered, provide the name of the registry (such as PROSPERO) and

registration number

X 2

Authors:

Contact 3a Provide name, institutional affiliation, e-mail address of all protocol authors;

provide physical mailing address of corresponding author

X 1

Contributions 3b Describe contributions of protocol authors and identify the guarantor of the

review

X 13

Amendments 4 If the protocol represents an amendment of a previously completed or published

protocol, identify as such and list changes; otherwise, state plan for

documenting important protocol amendments

N/A

Support:

Sources 5a Indicate sources of financial or other support for the review X 12

Sponsor 5b Provide name for the review funder and/or sponsor X 12

Role of sponsor or

funder

5c Describe roles of funder(s), sponsor(s), and/or institution(s), if any, in

developing the protocol

X 12

INTRODUCTION

Rationale 6 Describe the rationale for the review in the context of what is already known X 3-4

Objectives 7 Provide an explicit statement of the question(s) the review will address with

reference to participants, interventions, comparators, and outcomes (PICO)

X 5-6

Page 17 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960




METHODS

Eligibility criteria 8 Specify the study characteristics (such as PICO, study design, setting, time

frame) and report characteristics (such as years considered, language,

publication status) to be used as criteria for eligibility for the review

X 7

Information sources 9 Describe all intended information sources (such as electronic databases, contact

with study authors, trial registers or other grey literature sources) with planned

dates of coverage

X 6

Search strategy 10 Present draft of search strategy to be used for at least one electronic database,

including planned limits, such that it could be repeated

X Supplementary

file

STUDY RECORDS:

Data management 11a Describe the mechanism(s) that will be used to manage records and data

throughout the review

X 7

Selection process 11b State the process that will be used for selecting studies (such as two

independent reviewers) through each phase of the review (that is, screening,

eligibility and inclusion in meta-analysis)

X 7- 10

Data collection process 11c Describe planned method of extracting data from reports (such as piloting

forms, done independently, in duplicate), any processes for obtaining and

confirming data from investigators

X 10 -11

Data items 12 List and define all variables for which data will be sought (such as PICO items,

funding sources), any pre-planned data assumptions and simplifications

X 6

Outcomes and

prioritization

13 List and define all outcomes for which data will be sought, including

prioritization of main and additional outcomes, with rationale

X 9 -10

Risk of bias in individual

studies

14 Describe anticipated methods for assessing risk of bias of individual studies,

including whether this will be done at the outcome or study level, or both; state

how this information will be used in data synthesis

X 10 -11

Data synthesis 15a Describe criteria under which study data will be quantitatively synthesised N/A

15b If data are appropriate for quantitative synthesis, describe planned summary

measures, methods of handling data and methods of combining data from

studies, including any planned exploration of consistency (such as I2, Kendall’s

τ)

N/A

Page 18 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960




15c Describe any proposed additional analyses (such as sensitivity or subgroup

analyses, meta-regression)

N/A

15d If quantitative synthesis is not appropriate, describe the type of summary

planned

X 10

Meta-bias(es) 16 Specify any planned assessment of meta-bias(es) (such as publication bias

across studies, selective reporting within studies)

N/A

Confidence in cumulative

evidence

17 Describe how the strength of the body of evidence will be assessed (such as

GRADE)

X 10

* It is strongly recommended that this checklist be read in conjunction with the PRISMA-P Explanation and Elaboration (cite when available) for important

clarification on the items. Amendments to a review protocol should be tracked and dated. The copyright for PRISMA-P (including checklist) is held by the

PRISMA-P Group and is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution Licence 4.0.

From: Shamseer L, Moher D, Clarke M, Ghersi D, Liberati A, Petticrew M, Shekelle P, Stewart L, PRISMA-P Group. Preferred reporting items for systematic review and

meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015: elaboration and explanation. BMJ. 2015 Jan 2;349(jan02 1):g7647.

Page 19 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960







Journal: BMJ Open



Date Submitted by the Author: 07-Aug-2018




Epidemiology




BMJ Open

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



1

Title Page 1



PROTOCOL 4










14

15



Page 1 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



2

Abstract 18

Introduction 19





















will be used to group and evaluate selected studies around their aim, spatio - temporal 40






Page 2 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



3







� The review will evaluate the methodological rigour of included studies. 52

� Unpublished methods, if any will not be included in the review. 53

54

Introduction 55


and middle-income countries (LMICs). It is estimated that 3.2 billion of the world population are 57

living in malaria-prone regions in 91 countries and territories. Global efforts towards sustaining 58

















Page 3 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



4







comprehensive baseline risk maps to help guide malaria control strategies 16. This has been 80


in LMICs 17. 82

Efficient implementation and targeting of healthcare interventions for a disease are anchored on 83

a better understanding of its spatial – temporal dynamics 18. The dynamic global landscape of 84



as well 86









. 94



strengths/limitations of approaches and covariates employed require a comprehensive review to 97

identify the best methods and compare results to inform future studies. 98





Page 4 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



5




The title and synopsis of this proposed scoping review have been registered on the International 106

Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews database (http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO), 107

registration number (CRD42017076427). 108







114





• Which analysis techniques have been employed to assess the space-time burden of malaria? 119



malaria? 122



approach? 125

126


Page 5 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



6











starting year of 1968 has been tentatively chosen as this was when the first


.


The language of publication: No language restrictions

132















Page 6 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



7






152


publications

retrieved

PubMed





1078







352


153


Preliminary eligibility criterion has been developed to select studies that utilized spatio – 155


157

158

159

160

Page 7 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



8

161

162

163


165

Inclusion Criteria


following criteria:

Exclusion Criteria










than malaria.


166






into the full-text review stage. A full-text review of all eligible articles will again be conducted 172





Page 8 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



9








• Study ID

• Author, Year

• Country

• Article Title

• Language


• Data Source








2. Aims


3. Methodology


frames employed





Page 9 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



10


Key findings

Unexpected results

5. Discussion

Key findings

Unexpected results

Modelling gap(s)

Limitations




183




the total number of studies included, study design, publication year, type of covariates, study 187

setting and the characteristics of the study population. Additionally, a qualitative thematic 188

analysis will be used to group selected studies around their aim, spatio - temporal methodology 189

employed, covariates utilized, and model diagnostics/validation. Results will be reported in line 190

with the purpose of the review. Tables showing the different data sources, visualization 191

techniques, covariates, cluster – detection techniques and spatio – temporal methods will be 192

developed. 193







Page 10 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



11

questions will be developed to evaluate the appropriateness of the study design, methodological 200

approach, data analysis, presentation of findings and the authors’ discussions. An adapted 201

scoring system will be utilized for the aforementioned process to group studies in low, medium 202

and high quality study strata as provided in table 532. 203


205

206



Discussion 209


causation. The enhanced computational ability has created an ideal environment for the upsurge 211

of spatio – temporal epidemiologic applications incorporating both space, time and large 212

datasets. With these advances, numerous studies have used diverse data sources, adopted various 213








Autho

r/Year/Coun

try

Language/St

udy

period stated

(1)

Clear definit

ion of

objectives/ai

ms/res

earch questi

ons

(2)

Study desig

n

appropriate

for

the stated

aims

(3)

Data manage

ment

(Data type/pre-

processin

g/Misalignment

(4)

Cluster detectio

n/Visual

ization techniqu

es

mentioned

(5)

Malaria risk factors and

covariates

measured correctly

using

instruments that had been

trialled,

piloted or published

previously

(6)

Analysis methods

(including

diagnostic tool)

sufficiently

described to enable

replicability

(7)

Results for

analysis

described in the

methods

presented

(8)

Authors discussi

ons and

conclusions

justified

by results

(9)

Important findings/Lim

itations of

the study/unexpe

cted results

discussed

(10)

Reported modelling

issues

requiring further

attention.

Scores

(0 – 10)

Page 11 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



12





provide conceptual clarity, methodological rigour, transparency and build a recommendation 222







229

Abbreviations 230










Funding 240



Page 12 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



13




246

247








255


None 257

258


Not applicable 260

261





dissertation. 266

267

Figure Legend 268


270

Page 13 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



14

271

272

273

274

275

276

References 277














2016. The Lancet 2017;390(10100):1260-344. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32130-X 291






Study. The lancet 1997;349(9061):1269-76. 297



summary. 1996 300




since 1900. Nature 2017;550(7677):515. 304



2875-12-353 307




Page 14 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



15














2015;14(1):68. 324












Science 2010;5(1):69. 336











studies 2012;49(1):47-53. 347



350

Page 15 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from




37x44mm (600 x 600 DPI)

Page 16 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from






page # Yes No


Title:




registration number

X 2

Authors:



X 1


review

X 13




N/A

Support:



Role of sponsor or

funder



X 12

INTRODUCTION




X 5-6

Page 17 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960




METHODS




X 7



dates of coverage

X 6



X Supplementary

file

STUDY RECORDS:



X 7




X 7- 10




X 10 -11



X 6

Outcomes and

prioritization



X 9 -10


studies




X 10 -11





τ)

N/A

Page 18 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960






N/A


planned

X 10



N/A


evidence


GRADE)

X 10






Page 19 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960







Journal: BMJ Open



Date Submitted by the Author: 10-Aug-2018




Epidemiology




BMJ Open

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



1

Title Page 1



PROTOCOL 4










14

15



Page 1 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



2

Abstract 18

Introduction 19





















will be used to group and evaluate selected studies around their aim, spatio - temporal 40






Page 2 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



3







� The review will evaluate the methodological rigour of included studies. 52

53

Introduction 54


and middle-income countries (LMICs). It is estimated that 3.2 billion of the world population are 56

living in malaria-prone regions in 91 countries and territories. Global efforts towards sustaining 57


















Page 3 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



4






comprehensive baseline risk maps to help guide malaria control strategies 16. This has been 79


in LMICs 17. 81

Efficient implementation and targeting of healthcare interventions for a disease are anchored on 82

a better understanding of its spatial – temporal dynamics 18. The dynamic global landscape of 83



as well 85









. 93



strengths/limitations of approaches and covariates employed require a comprehensive review to 96

identify the best methods and compare results to inform future studies. 97







Page 4 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



5


The title and synopsis of this proposed scoping review have been registered on the International 105

Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews database (http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO), 106

registration number (CRD42017076427). 107







113





• Which analysis techniques have been employed to assess the space-time burden of malaria? 118



malaria? 121



approach? 124

125






Page 5 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



6







starting year of 1968 has been tentatively chosen as this was when the first


.


The language of publication: No language restrictions

131



















Page 6 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



7


151


publications

retrieved

PubMed





1078







352


152


Preliminary eligibility criterion has been developed to select studies that utilized spatio – 154


156

157

158

159

160

161

162

Page 7 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



8


164

Inclusion Criteria


following criteria:

Exclusion Criteria










than malaria.


165






into the full-text review stage. A full-text review of all eligible articles will again be conducted 171








Page 8 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



9





• Study ID

• Author, Year

• Country

• Article Title

• Language


• Data Source








2. Aims


3. Methodology


frames employed






Key findings

Unexpected results

Page 9 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



10

5. Discussion

Key findings

Unexpected results

Modelling gap(s)

Limitations




182




the total number of studies included, study design, publication year, type of covariates, study 186

setting and the characteristics of the study population. Additionally, a qualitative thematic 187

analysis will be used to group selected studies around their aim, spatio - temporal methodology 188

employed, covariates utilized, and model diagnostics/validation. Results will be reported in line 189

with the purpose of the review. Tables showing the different data sources, visualization 190

techniques, covariates, cluster – detection techniques and spatio – temporal methods will be 191

developed. 192







questions will be developed to evaluate the appropriateness of the study design, methodological 199

approach, data analysis, presentation of findings and the authors’ discussions. An adapted 200

Page 10 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



11

scoring system will be utilized for the aforementioned process to group studies in low, medium 201

and high quality study strata as provided in table 532 33

202


204

205



Discussion 208


causation. The enhanced computational ability has created an ideal environment for the upsurge 210

of spatio – temporal epidemiologic applications incorporating both space, time and large 211

datasets. With these advances, numerous studies have used diverse data sources, adopted various 212








Author/

Year/C

ountry Langua

ge/Study

period

stated

(1)

Clear

definition of

objectives/aim

s/resear

ch questio

ns

(2)

Study

design appropr

iate for the

stated

aims

(3)

Data

management

(Data type/sou

rces/

collection

methods/

pre-processi

ng/Misal

ignment) well

defined.

(4)

Cluster

detection/Visualizat

ion techniques

sufficientl

y mentioned

to enable

replicability?

(5)

Malaria

outcome measures

and covariates

clearly

defined (e.g.,

malaria

incidence), valid (e.g.

from

remote sensing)

and reliable

.

(6)

Analytic

methods (variable

selection, model

validation)

sufficiently described to

enable

replicability?

(7)

Results

clearly specifie

d (point estimate

,

confidence

intervals

, standard

error)

(8)

Authors

discussions and

conclusions

justified

by results

(9)

Important

findings/Limitations of

the study/unexpe

cted results

discussed

(10)

Reported

modelling issues

requiring further

attention.

Scores

(0 – 10)

Page 11 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



12





provide conceptual clarity, methodological rigour, transparency and build a recommendation 221







228

Abbreviations 229










Funding 239



Page 12 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



13




245

246








254


None 256

257


Not applicable 259

260





dissertation. 265

266

Figure Legend 267


269

Page 13 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



14

270

271

272

273

274

275

References 276














2016. The Lancet 2017;390(10100):1260-344. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32130-X 290






Study. The lancet 1997;349(9061):1269-76. 296



summary. 1996 299




since 1900. Nature 2017;550(7677):515. 303



2875-12-353 306




Page 14 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from



15














2015;14(1):68. 323












Science 2010;5(1):69. 335











studies 2012;49(1):47-53. 346



33. Sadoine ML, Smargiassi A, Ridde V, et al. The associations between malaria, interventions, and the 349

environment: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Malaria journal 2018;17(1):73. 350

351

Page 15 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from




37x44mm (600 x 600 DPI)

Page 16 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960

on Septem


http://bmjopen.bm

j.com/

BM



ber 2018. Dow

nloaded from






page # Yes No


Title:




registration number

X 2

Authors:



X 1


review

X 13




N/A

Support:



Role of sponsor or

funder



X 12

INTRODUCTION




X 5-6

Page 17 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960




METHODS




X 7



dates of coverage

X 6



X Supplementary

file

STUDY RECORDS:



X 7




X 7- 10




X 10 -11



X 6

Outcomes and

prioritization



X 9 -10


studies




X 10 -11





τ)

N/A

Page 18 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960






N/A


planned

X 10



N/A


evidence


GRADE)

X 10






Page 19 of 19


BMJ Open

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960



bmj open · for peer review only 13 figure 1: study selection based on prisma 2009 flow diagram256...

Documents