blue growth opportunities in the digitized...

Blue Growth Opportunities in the Digitized Sustainable Energy EconomyEicke R. Weber

Vice President, International Solar Energy Society ISESFormer Director, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems

1

Blue Growth Opportunities in the Digitized Sustainable Energy Economy

• The largest challenge for mankind today is the needed transformation of our economy within this century.

• If we want to enjoy life on this planet as we like it today even in the year 2500, we have to change to a sustainable lifestyle by 2100!

• This task is most urgent in the energy sector, climate change threatens to destroy the basis of our life as-we-know-it by 2050!

• This disruptive transformation process offers many economic opportunities; the needed economic growth can hardly be labeled as ‘Green Growth’ as it often interfers with our biosphere, it should be called ‘Blue Growth’!

• ‘Blue Growth’: Blue as the water, the sky,….and our solar panels!

• The rapid development of the PV market is an excellent example of ‘Blue Growth,’ let us look at it in more detail:

Global Growth of PV Installations 1992-2017

Sour

ce:

Wik

iped

ia.,

acce

ssed

May

20,

201

8

CAGR 1992 –2017: 3

3%!

From 0.1 MW 1992 to 400 GW 2017: CAGR of 33%!

Blue Growth Opportunities in the Digitized Sustainable Energy Economy

Electricity supply from renewable energy sourcesDevelopment in Germany 1990-2013

S t r o m E in s p G :

J a n u a r 1 9 9 1 – M ä r z

2 0 0 0

EEGApril 2000

EEGAugust 2004

EEGJanuar 2009

EEGJanuar 2012

EEGAugust 2014

Year 2017

Total: 37,9%165 TWh

PV 8,5 %37,1 TWH

Bio 8,5%37,1 TWh

Wind 17,1 %74,6 TWh

Hydro 3,7%16,0 TWh

PV System Module Price Learning Curve since 1980

Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende

Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolioc-Si PV is not a Commodity, but a High-Tech Product!

material quality

• diffusion length• base conductivity

device quality

• passivation of surfaces• low series resistance• light confinement

cell structures

• PERC: Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell

• MWT: Metal Wrap Through• IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back

Contact – Back Junction• HJT: Hetero Junction Technology

Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC 2009

material quality

module efficiency

Industry

Standard

IBC-BJHJT

PERC

MWT-PERC

20%

19%

18%

17%16%

15%14%

21%

device quality

BC-HJT

Projections to TW-scale PV from TW workshop FreiburgN. M. Haegel et al., Science 356, 141 (2017).

Using simple assumptions, we can project that just maintaining the 2015 deployment rate would reach 1-TW deployment before 2030. A 25% annual growth rate would reach 5-10 TW by 2030!

PV Heading into the Terawatt Range – this is a Disruption!

Source: IEA 2014

• Rapid introduction of PV globally is fueled by availability of cost-competitive, distributed energy

• In 2050 or before between 4.000 and 30.000 GWp PV will be installed!• By 2017, only about 400 GWp have been installed!

We are just atthe beginningof the global growth curve!

Franz Baumgartner, 26.02.2016; ST. Gallen; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/

Lernkurve – Batterien für Elektroautos

Slide 42.

B. Nykvist, M. Nilsson; «Rapidly Falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles»,Stockholm Environment Institute & KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm; Nature Climate Change; 9th Feb 2015

The learning rate for NiMH batteries in hybrid vehicle applications have historically been 9%

most liklyin future

LR=8%marketleader

US$300/kWhmarket-leaderBEV standardin 2014(Tesla S)

battery ¼ oftotal EV costsTesla S, N. Leaf

2007

2014300$/kWh2017

Price Experience (Learning) Curvefor car batteries

• PV has become a cost-efficient, rapidly growing element of the electricity supply in many countries, driven by political incentives, technology improvements, and related cost reductions:

à < 2 ct/kWh 2016/17 announced in several auctions!

• Global Photovoltaics is a fast growing market: The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of PV installations was 33% between 1992 to 2017!

• Drivers are the combination of cost effectiveness and climate concerns.

• With PV entering the Terawatt age, substantial new PV production capacities along the full food-chain are needed: poly-Si, wafers, cells, modules, inverters (BOS), based on high-efficiency technology generations, allowing further efficiency improvements at decreasing cost!

• Croatia has a serious chance to participate in the further growth of this part of the future Blue Economy: Program Vallis Solaris Croatia:

PV – a Key Pillar of the Future, Sustainable ‘Blue’ Economy

§ Full Integrated PV Modules and PV Electricity Production in Croatia (Solar silicon / Solar glass / Ingots / Wafers / Cells / Modules / Inverters / System components / PV Power Plants) 2)..

§ Establishment of leading Electricity Storage Technology (production of stationary and mobile Lithium-Ion battery storage systems in Croatia) 2)..

§ Energy supply systems that combine both technologies with the electricity grid and the whole energy supply system inclusive traffic, heating, cooling and industrial processes (intelligent sector coupling based on smart technologies).

These 3 technologies will be accompanied by studies, research and development together with local institutes and universities under the leadership of the Fraunhofer ISE, the leading institute in Europe in this area.

R & D, Industry and Energy Program "Vallis Solaris Croatia" 1). :The Future Energy System Based on Renewables, Sector Coupling

1). The Program was developed and supported in cooperation of the Fraunhofer ISE and German industry partners and is divided into 4 phases, which enables the start of production after only 1.5 - 2 years and Program development cycle maximum after 8-10 years. Direct benefits for Croatia from the Program are vast, like long-term and a strong increase of GDP, employment,

export and state budget income total investment app. EUR 6.5 Billion, total new workplaces app. 7,000 / years 2019 - 2029).

2). The whole productions lines will be based on Industry 4.0 technologies.

Integration of fluctuating renewable power from Solar and wind requires a disruptive transformation of our energy system,

including storage, sector coupling - such as power to gas - and thorough digitization of the complete energy system.

Paradigm shift of the Power Supply Model

• The sheer number of participants in the electricity grid alone would not require tochange to a data-based interconnection of these systems.

• However, the growing fraction of volatile, non-regulated power input from solar and wind requires a fundamental paradigm shift of the power supply model.

• In the past, power was supplied as needed by big thermal power plants. This will bereplaced by a new data-based system, that includes the continuous balance betweenpower production and consumption through a complex interplay of timely loadmanagement, stronger sector coupling of electricity, heat and traffic, temporary use offlexible power production such as gas plants, and implementation of storagetechnologies: electrical, thermal, and chemical.

• Integration of modern prediction methods for power production and consumption is partof organization and management of these more and more complex systems.

• All of this can only be achieved using the techniques and methods of digitization.

Additional Complexity: – International Integration

Differences in Rules andRegulations within the EU

• Different incentives forRegenerative Energies

• Challenge fortransnational coordination

• Digitization: comprehensive standardsrequired for transnational Integration!

Slide adapted from H.M. Henning et al., FVEE Annual Meeting 2018

Data storage and

processing

• Local (edge computing)

• Central (cloud computing)

• Mixed

Applications

• Data analysis

• Operation and control

• Automation

Methods

• Artificial Intelligence

• Internet of Things IoT

• Big Data Computing

• Digital twins

• Blockchain

Dimensions of Digitization

Application areas

• Energy economy

• Generation

• Grids

• Trade

• Consumption

• Production technology of

system components


Digitizing the Energy System: Areas of Application

Generation• Virtual power plants• Generation forecasts• Predictive Maintenance

Grid• Real-time data• Automatic grid control• Management of

System services

Trade• Virtual markets• Peer-to-Peer• Trade with

system services• Time-variable prices

Consumption• Load Management• Feed-in management• Optimized operation• Need forecasts

Production• Producing components• Industry 4.0• Automattion, control• Optimizing product quality

Digitizing theEnergy System


Example Power Production: Virtual Combi-Power Plant

What?• Software to aggregate power producer,

consumer and storage systems• Energy management of the system

portfolio (presently 2 GW)• User-friendly operator surface

Who?• Tool für direct sellers / „aggregators“• Support for the grid operation

Why?• The VPP package allows the customer to

record, manage, process and optimizesystem information with high frequency


Example Grid: Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Predict Power Production out of Volatile RE

Approach:

1. Prediction of Power feed-in fromindividual systems

2. Extrapolation of individual predictions

3. Aggregation of predictions

4. Verification of predictions


Example Prosumers: Individual Buildings

In the future: Several ‚smart‘ prosumers, producers and consumers, in one system:

• Integrated, optimized operation of all components including predictive controlallows to minimize storage and energyconversion losses

• Example: passiv house in Hannover, with PV-system, batterie und heat pump:

• Solar fraction of power: 53 %

• Renewable fraction 79 %!


Grid stability with growing amounts of fluctuating RE:Grid in Germany today more stable than in 2006,

and in France, UK today!

SAIDI: System Average Interuption Duration IndexSource: Hans-Josef Fell :

For comparison (2013): France (81% Nuclear Power): 68 min., UK: 55 mins.!

Opportunities and Challenges of the digitizedrenewable energy power supplyOpportunities:

• Creation of new business models in the “Blue Economy“• Efficient use of existing infrastructure (e.g., Heinrichs und Jochem, 2016)• Increased reliabilityin systems with increasing fraction of power from volatile

sources• Efficient integration of climate-friendly renewable energy with flexible power

consumption• Large energy savings through optimized systems, for customers and the total

system

Challenges:

• Privacy (e.g., Buchman et al. 2013) and control of data• Establishing social acceptance• Adjustment of political framework• Investment costs

Heinrichs, H., Jochem, P. (2016), Long-term impactsof battery electric vehicles on the German electricitysystem, European Physical Journal Special Topics

225, 583-593, doi: 10.1140/epjst/e2005-50115-x

Buchmann, E.; Kessler, S.; Jochem, P.; Böhm, K. (2013): The Costs of Privacy in Local Energy Markets,

IEEE Conference on Business Informatics (CBI), Vienna, Austria.Slide adapted from H.M. Henning et al., FVEE Annual Meeting 2018

Inter-sectorial analysis of the overall system /Approach:

• Comprehensive model of the overall

system with all energy fluxes based onhourly energy balance

• Generic optimizer optimum compositionand sizing of all components including

energy retrofit of the building stock• Goal function: minimum of total annual cost

(re-investment, maintenance, operation,financing)

• Appropriate treatment of a highly complexsystem with many interdependencies

* ) Fraunhofer ISE, Sustainable energy supply for Germany in 2050 (results of a study),German Energy System as possible Model for Croatia / project cooperation with Croatian Universities and Research Institutes

Holistic Modelling and Analysis of a Future German Energy System as Model for Croatia*

The Future Globale Supergrid:

One sun – one planet – one Grid!

Thank you

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