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A Study Sp onso red by the M a n p o w er Admin is trat ion

SOUTHWEST MISSOURI STATt COLLEGE LIBRARY

U. S. DEPOSITORY COPYFEB 1 4 1969

U.S. DEPARTMENTOF LABOR / Bureau of Labor Stat ist ics / Bul l e t in No. 1 5 9 9Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

OCCUPATIONALEMPLOYMENT

PATTERNSFOR

I960 AND 1975A S t u d y S p o n s o r e d

by t h e M A N P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

December 1958

B u l l e t i n No. 1 5 9 9

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Wil lard Wirtz , Secretary

B U R E A U OF LA BO R S T A T I S T I C S

B e n Bur detsky, A c t i n g C o m m i s s i o n e r

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402 - Price $2.25

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Preface

The e s t i m a t e s p r e s e n t e d h e r e o n the fu tu re o c c u p a t io n a l c o m p o s i t io n of em plo y m e n t fo r in d u s t r ie s and fo r the en t ire United S t a te s a r e p a r t of the continuing w o rk of the B u r e a u of L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s on e v a lu a t io n of the c o u n t r y 's m an p o w er n e e d s and r e s o u r c e s . E s t i m a t e s of o c c u p a t io n a l r e q u i r e m e n ts a r e be in g m a d e by a g e n c i e s in m an y l o c a l a r e a s . The r e s u l t s of such s tu d ie s a r e u se d to p lan lo c a l m a n pow er t ra in in g p r o g r a m s . S ince the V o c a t io n a l E d u ca t io n A ct of 1963, S tate g o v e rn m e n t a g e n c i e s have b een in c r e a s i n g l y c o n c e rn e d with p r o je c t io n s of o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m en t r e q u i r e m e n t s fo r u s e in p lanning s ta te w id e t r a i n ing and ed u cat io n p r o g r a m s . The p r o je c t io n s of e m p lo y m ent c o m p o s i t io n by occu p a t io n of th is r e p o r t a r e fo r the N ation a s a whole. It i s hoped that the n a t io n a l p r o j e c t io n s d ev e lo p ed in th is r e p o r t w il l a s s i s t S ta te and lo c a l m an p o w er a n a ly s t s , a s w e l l a s p r o v id e in fo rm a t io n fo r n a t io n a l m an p o w er p o l ic y and p lanning. The r a t i o s d e v e lo p e d fo r th is r e p o r t w il l a l s o be in cluded in T o m o r r o w 1 s M anpow er N e e d s : N a t io n a l M anpow er P r o je c t i o n sand a Guide to T h e ir U se a s a T oo l in D evelop ing S tate and A r e a M anpow er P r o j e c t i o n s . The l a t t e r p u b lica t io n i s e x p e c te d to be p u b l ish e d l a t e r th is y e a r or e a r l y in 1969. It w i l l conta in m uch in fo rm a t io n u se fu l to S tate and a r e a m an p o w er p la n n e r s .

The study w a s conducted with m a jo r f in a n c ia l su p p o r t by the M anpow er A d m in is t r a t io n , U. S. D e p a r tm e n t of L a b o r . The r e p o r t w a s p r e p a r e d in the B u r e a u ' s O ffice of M anpow er and E m p lo y m e n t S t a t i s t i c s . The m a jo r p a r t of the a n a l y s i s w a s c a r r i e d out in the D iv is io n of O ccu p a t io n a l E m p lo y m e n t S t a t i s t i c s under the s u p e r v i s io n of H a r r y G re e n sp a n . Im p o rtan t a s s i s t a n c e w a s p ro v id e d by the s t a f f of the D iv is io n of M anpow er and O ccu p at ion a l Outlook. M a jo r co n tr ib u t io n s to the r e p o r t w e r e m ad e by R ic h a r d D e m p se y , S a n d r a R ob in so n , N o rm a n Root, J a m e s P. M e tca lf , J o s e p h J . K i lga l lo n , C h e s te r S c h im m e l , R o s e N a s s i s , A r th u r G a r t a g a n i s and C l a r a B e l a i r .

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Contents

Page

In t ro d u c t io n ------------------------------- 1T h e v a r i a b i l i t y o f o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t g ro w th _______________________________________ 1O c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t f a c t o r s ___________________________________________________________ 4T h e B L S i n d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l e m p lo y m e n t t a b l e ________________________________________ 4S o u r c e s o f data________________________________________________________________________________ 5P r o j e c t i o n of o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t p a t t e r n s fo r

e a c h i n d u s t r y . ----- ----------------- 8I n t e r p r e t a t io n of the o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s ___________________________________________________ 9P r o c e d u r e s f o r p r o je c t io n of o c c u p a t io n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s ---------------- 10

S u m m a r y of c h a n g e s in o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n s ________________________________________________ 11P r o f e s s i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l w o r k e r s ------ ---- 17M a n a g e r s , o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r i e t o r s _____________________________________________________ 20C l e r i c a l w o r k e r s _____________________________________________________________________________ 20S a l e s w o r k e r s __________________________ 21C r a f t s m e n _____________________________________________________________________________________ 21O p e r a t i v e s _____________________________________________________________________________________ 22L a b o r e r s ______________________________________ 23S e r v i c e w o r k e r s _______________________________________________________________________________ 23

C h a n g e s in o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n s , d e t a i l e d i n d u s t r i e s ______A g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y , an d f i s h e r i e s _______________________M in in g of s o l id m a t e r i a l s _______________________ ___________C r u d e p e t r o l e u m an d n a t u r a l g a s __________________________C o n s t r u c t io n ___________________________________________________L o g g in g c a m p s and lo g g in g c o n t r a c t o r s ____ _______ _____S a w m i l l s , p la n in g m i l l s , m i l l w o r k , an d m i s c e l l a n e o u s

w ood p r o d u c t s ______________________________________________F u r n i t u r e an d f i x t u r e s _______________________________ _____ _S to n e , c l a y , an d g l a s s _______________________________________P r i m a r y m e t a l s ______________________________________________F a b r i c a t e d m e t a l p r o d u c t s , in c lu d in g o r d n a n c e ___________O f f ic e , c o m p u t in g , and a c c o u n t in g m a c h i n e s i n d u s t r i e s _ N o n e l e c t r i c a l m a c h i n e r y , e x c e p t o f f i c e , c o m p u t in g , and

a c c o u n t in g m a c h i n e s _____________ ______ _________ ________E l e c t r i c a l m a c h i n e r y , e q u ip m e n t , an d s u p p l i e s __________T r a n s p o r t a t i o n e q u i p m e n t ___________________________________P r o f e s s i o n a l an d s c i e n t i f i c i n s t r u m e n t s ___________________M i s c e l l a n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s __________________F o o d p r o d u c t s ________________________________________________T o b a c c o p r o d u c t s ____________________________________________T e x t i l e m i l l p r o d u c t s ________________________________________A p p a r e l an d r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s _______________________________P a p e r an d a l l i e d p r o d u c t s ___________________________________P r i n t i n g an d p u b l i s h in g ______________________________________C h e m i c a l s an d a l l i e d p r o d u c t s ______________________________P e t r o l e u m r e f in in g and r e l a t e d i n d u s t r i e s _________________R u b b e r an d m i s c e l l a n e o u s p l a s t i c s p r o d u c t s _____________L e a t h e r an d l e a t h e r p r o d u c t s ------------------------------------------R a i l r o a d s -----------------------------------------------------------------------L o c a l and su b u r b a n t r a n s i t and in t e r u r b a n

p a s s e n g e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n __________________________________

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Contents Continued

C h a n g e s in o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n s , d e t a i l e d i n d u s t r i e s C o n tin u edT r u c k i n g an d w a r e h o u s in g ___________________________________________________________________ 51A i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n __________________________________________ 52O th er t r a n s p o r t a t i o n __________________________________________________________________________ 53C o m m u n i c a t i o n s _______________________________________________________________________________ 54P u b l i c u t i l i t i e s _____________________________________ 55W h o le s a le t r a d e _______________________________________________________________________________ 57B u i ld in g m a t e r i a l s , h a r d w a r e , an d f a r m e q u ip m e n t______________________________________ 58L i m i t e d p r i c e v a r i e t y s t o r e s ________________________________________________________________ 58G e n e r a l m e r c h a n d i s e r e t a i l i n g , e x c e p t l i m i t e d p r i c e v a r i e t y __________________________ 58F o o d an d d a i r y p r o d u c t s s t o r e s ______________________________________________________________ 59M o to r v e h i c l e s and a c c e s s o r i e s r e t a i l i n g _________________________________________________ 60G a s o l i n e s e r v i c e s t a t i o n s ____________________________________________________________________ 60A p p a r e l an d a c c e s s o r i e s r e t a i l in g ___________________________________________________________ 61F u r n i t u r e , h o m e f u r n i s h i n g s , an d e q u ip m e n t r e t a i l i n g ___________________ 61E a t in g an d d r in k in g p l a c e s ___________________________________________________________________ 62D ru g s t o r e s ___________________________________________________________________________________ 62M i s c e l l a n e o u s r e t a i l s t o r e s __________________________________________________________________ 63B a n k s an d c r e d i t a g e n c i e s ___________________________________________________________________ 63S t o c k b r o k e r s an d in v e s t m e n t c o m p a n i e s __________________________________________________ 64I n s u a n c e ________________________________________________________________________________________ 65R e a l e s t a t e ____________________________________________________________________________________ 65H o t e l s an d o th e r lo d g in g p l a c e s __________________ __________ ________ ____________ _________ 66L a u n d r i e s an d c le a n in g , and p r e s s i n g , a l t e r a t i o n , and

r e p a i r s h o p s _________________________________________________________________________________ 66A l l o th e r p e r s o n a l s e r v i c e s _________________________________________________________________ 67M i s c e l l a n e o u s b u s i n e s s s e r v i c e s ___________________________________________________________ 67A u to m o b i le r e p a i r s e r v i c e s and g a r a g e ____________________________________________________ 68M i s c e l l a n e o u s r e p a i r s e r v i c e s _____________________________________________________________ 69E n t e r t a i n m e n t and r e c r e a t i o n s e r v i c e s ____________________________________________________ 69M e d i c a l an d h e a l th s e r v i c e i n d u s t r y ________________________________________________________ 71L e g a l s e r v i c e s ________________________________________________________________________________ 72E d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s _________________________________________________________________________ 72W e l f a r e , r e l i g i o u s , an d n o n p r o f i t m e m b e r s h i p

o r g a n i z a t i o n s ________________________________________________________________________________ 7 3P r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s ___________________________________________________________________________ 74E n g i n e e r i n g an d a r c h i t e c t u r a l s e r v i c e s ____________________________________________________ 74A c c o u n t in g , a u d i t in g , an d b o o k k e e p in g s e r v i c e s _________________________________________ 75O th er p r o f e s s i o n a l an d r e l a t e d s e r v i c e s ___________________________________________________ 75P o s t a l s e r v i c e _________________________________________________________________________________ 76F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t p u b l ic a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , e x c e p t

p o s t a l s e r v i c e _______________________________________________________________________________ 76S ta te a n d l o c a l p u b l ic a d m i n i s t r a t i o n _______________________________________________________ 78

T a b l e s :1. C h a n g e in e m p lo y m e n t by b r o a d o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p , 19506 5 ______________________ 32. D i s t r ib u t io n of e m p lo y m e n t , 14 y e a r s of a g e and o l d e r , by

b r o a d o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p s , I960 and 1975___________________________________________ 123. D i s t r ib u t io n of e m p lo y m e n t , 16 y e a r s of a g e an d o l d e r , by

b r o a d o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p s , I9 6 0 an d 1975___________________________________________ 134 . E s t i m a t e d e m p lo y m e n t of w h i t e - c o l l a r , b l u e - c o l l a r , s e r v i c e , and

f a r m w o r k e r s , by b r o a d in d u s t r y s e c t o r s , I9 6 0 an d 1975 _________________________ 16

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C h a r t s :

1. P e r c e n t c h a n g e in e m p lo y m e n t f o r the 20 l a r g e s t n o n fa r mo c c u p a t io n s , 1950 to I9 6 0 ___________________________________________________________ 2

2. In d e x e s of output an d e m p lo y m e n t in m in in g andm a n u f a c t u r i n g , 1950 to 1965_________________________________________________________ 14

A p p e n d i x e s :

A . C o m p a r a b i l i t y of o c c u p a t io n a l t i t l e s in B L S t a b l e s o f o c c u p a t io n a lc o m p o s i t i o n of i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t with C e n s u s o c c u p a t io n a lc a t e g o r i e s __________________________________________________________ 79

B . E s t i m a t e d n u m b e r of p r iv a t e w a g e an d s a l a r y w o r k e r s an d p r i m a r yj o b s of a l l e m p lo y e d p e r s o n s in e a c h in d u s t r y , I9 6 0 an d 1975_____________ ______ 83

C . R a t i o s o f o c c u p a t io n a l c o m p o s i t i o n of i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t ,I9 6 0 and p r o j e c t e d f o r 1975 __________________________________________________________ 86

D. P r o j e c t e d o c c u p a t io n a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n tf o r 1975, an d d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s and i n d u s t r i e s byn u m b e r an d p e r c e n t _____________________________________________________________________ 182

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Occupational Employment Patterns, I960 and 1975

Introduction

T h is r e p o r t p r e s e n t s e s t i m a t e s of the o c c u p a t io n a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f e m p lo y m e n t by in d u s t r y f o r I9 6 0 , the y e a r of the f i r s t p u b l i s h e d m a t r i x , and p r o j e c t i o n s fo r 1975. O c c u p a t io n a l p r o f i l e s w e r e p r e p a r e d f o r 116 in d u s t r i e s w hich in c lu d e a l l ty p e s o f e c o n o m ic a c t iv i t y . T he p e r c e n t of t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t in e a c h in d u s t r y w a s d e v e lo p e d f o r a b o u t 160 o c c u p a t io n a l c a t e g o r i e s c l a s s i f i e d in 10 b r o a d o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p s w hich c o m p r i s e a l l ty p e s of w o rk . I n d u s t r y - o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s p r o j e c t e d to 1975 w e r e u s e d to d e t e r m in e fu tu re o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s b y a p p ly in g th em to p r o j e c t i o n s of to t a l e m p l o y m e n t in e a c h in d u s t r y fo r 1975.

In fo r m a t io n o n t h e n u m b e r s c u r r e n t l y e m p lo y e d in s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t io n s and e s t i m a t e s of fu tu re e m p lo y m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s by o c c u p a t io n a r e of i n c r e a s i n g c o n c e r n to e d u c a t o r s , e c o n o m i s t s , an d g o v e r n m e n t o f f i c i a l s . If the N atio n i s to m a in t a in a h igh r a t e of e c o n o m ic g ro w th an d a p p r o a c h n a t io n a l o b j e c t i v e s f o r e d u c a t io n , h ea lth , i m p r o v e m e n t of u r b a n l i fe , a n d e l im in a t io n of p o v e r ty , w o r k e r s m u s t be e m p lo y e d a t i n c r e a s i n g l y p r o d u c t iv e j o b s . In o r d e r to a v o id h u m an w a s t e and d e c a y , th o s e who w i sh to w o rk m u s t be a b le to f ind j o b s th at t e s t th e i r a b i l i t i e s . T o a c h i e v e t h e s e a i m s , a r e a s o n a b l e b a la n c e i s n e c e s s a r y b e tw e e n the s k i l l r e q u i r e m e n t s of a r a p i d l y c h an g in g t e c h n o l o g i c a l l y a d v a n c e d e c o n o m y an d the s k i l l s p o s s e s s e d by the l a b o r f o r c e . B o th s e r i o u s s k i l l s h o r t a g e s and h igh u n e m p lo y m e n t m u s t b e a v o id e d .

T o an e v e r g r e a t e r e x te n t e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n i t i e s a r e r e l a t e d to s k i l l s w hich a r e a c q u i r e d by s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g or e x t e n s i v e g e n e r a l e d u c a t io n . F o r a h igh p r o p o r t i o n of w o r k it i s not p o s s i b l e f o r a w o r k e r to o b ta in e m p lo y m e n t o r to m o v e f r o m an o c c u p a t ion in w hich e m p lo y m e n t o p p o r tu n i t i e s h av e d im in i s h e d , to a n o th e r fo r w h ich t h e r e i s an in s u f f ic ie n t su p p ly of w o r k e r s , w ithout tak in g s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g o r m o v in g in i t i a l ly to l o w - s k i l l e d an d l o w - p a id w o rk . H o w e v e r , not a l l o c c u p a t io n s th at r e q u i r e long t r a in in g or f o r m a l e d u c a t io n o f fe r e q u a l ly good e m p l o y m e n t o p p o r tu n i t i e s .

It i s n e c e s s a r y to a n t i c ip a t e the n u m b e r l ik e ly to be r e q u i r e d in im p o r t a n t o c c u p a t io n s in o r d e r to p la n t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s and e d u c a t io n a l c u r r i c u l a and to d e t e r m i n e m a n p o w e r p o l i c i e s . T o a v o id m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e s in the r e q u i r e m e n t s and s u p p l y of w o r k e r s fo r p a r t i c u l a r o c c u p a t io n s , it i s d e s i r a b l e to d e v e lo p l o n g - t e r m p r o j e c t i o n s of the n u m b e r of w o r k e r s th a t w i l l be n e e d e d fo r u s e w ith i n f o r m a t i o n on the c u r r e n t su p p ly and fu tu r e a t t r i t i o n to d e r i v e the n u m b e r th at sh o u ld b e t r a in e d .

T he o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n s w h ich a r e the p r i m a r y fo c u s of th i s s tudy p r o v i d e the m e a n s of t r a n s l a t i n g p r o j e c t i o n s of to t a l e m p lo y m e n t in e a c h in d u s t r y , in to o c c u p a t io n a l e m p l o y m e n t b y in d u s t r y , and f o r the e n t i r e e c o n o m y .

A fo r t h c o m in g c o r o l l a r y r e p o r t , T o m o r r o w 1 s M a n p o w e r N e e d s , fo u r v o lu m e s by the B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s ( B L S ) , p r e s e n t s p r o j e c t i o n s o f n a t io n a l m a n p o w e r r e q u i r e m e n t s an d a b r i e f gu ide to th e i r u s e a s a f r a m e w o r k f o r d e v e lo p in g S ta te and a r e a m a n p o w e r p r o j e c t i o n s .

The V a r i a b i l i t y of O c c u p a t io n a l E m p lo y m e n t G ro w th

T he e x p a n s i o n and d e v e lo p m e n t of the U. S. e c o n o m y g e n e r a t e s a m u c h g r e a t e r g ro w th in s o m e o c c u p a t io n s than in o t h e r s an d d e s p i t e i n c r e a s i n g t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t , s o m e o c c u p a t io n s d e c l in e in im p o r t a n c e and b e c o m e o b s o l e t e a s c a n be s e e n m o s t c l e a r l y in a c o m p a r i s i o n of the o c c u p a t io n a l d a t a f r o m the d e c e n n ia l c e n s u s e s . ( C h a r t 1. ) A m o n g the 20 l a r g e s t o c c u p a t io n s r e p o r t e d in both the 1950 and I9 6 0 c e n s u s e s , 1 m o r e than d o u b le d in e m p lo y m e n t d u r in g the 1 9 5 0 *s , 3i n c r e a s e d m o r e than 60 p e r c e n t , an d 3 o t h e r s h ad s m a l l e r e m p lo y m e n t in I9 6 0 than in 1950. The a v e r a g e g ro w th show n b y t h e c e n s u s f o r a l l n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l e m p lo y m e n t w a s 22 p e r c e n t .

N o r d o e s the r a t e o f g ro w th in in d iv id u a l o c c u p a t io n s in one d e c a d e p r o v i d e a r e l i a b l e in d ic a t o r of th e i r g ro w th in the s u c c e e d i n g d e c a d e . F o r e x a m p le , the n u m b e r o f t e l e phone o p e r a t o r s g r e w a l m o s t 80 p e r c e n t in the 10 y e a r s ending in 1950 but w a s no g r e a t e r

1


2Chart 1. Percent Change in Employment for the 20 Largest Nonfarm Occupations,

1950 to 1960-20

I!Cashiers

Attendants, hospitals and other institutions

Engineers

Elementary and secondary school teachers!

Nurses, professional

Secretaries, stenographers and typists I

Welders and flame cutters

Insurance agents, brokers and underwriter^

Janitors and sextons

Cooks, except private household

Bookkeepers

Accountants

Waiters and waitresses

All nonfarm workers

Sewers and stitchers, manufacturing

Drivers and deliverymen

Private household workers (not elsewhere classified)Auto mechanics

MachinistsI

Painters, construction and maintenance

Carpenters

0 +20 +40 +60 +80 +100 +120

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, U.S. C ensus of Population 1960, United S ta te s Summary, D etailed C h arac te ristic s , PC(1) 1D.U.S., Table 202.


3at the end o f a n o th e r 10 y e a r s . The n u m b e r o f au to s e r v i c e and p a r k i n g a t t e n d a n ts i n c r e a s e d o n l y 8 p e r c e n t b e tw e e n 1940 and 1950 , but g r e w a l m o s t 50 p e r c e n t b e tw e e n 1950 and I9 6 0 . E l e m e n t a r y and s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l t e a c h e r s w e r e on ly 11 p e r c e n t m o r e n u m e r o u s in 1950 th an in 19 4 0 , but i n c r e a s e d a l m o s t 50 p e r c e n t in the fo l lo w in g 10 y e a r s .

B e tw e e n d e c e n n ia l c e n s u s e s r e l i a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n on e m p lo y m e n t i s a v a i l a b l e on ly f o r a s m a l l n u m b e r o f in d iv id u a l o c c u p a t io n s . S in c e 1947 , h o w e v e r , an n u a l a v e r a g e e m p l o y m e n t e s t i m a t e s h a v e b e e n d e v e lo p e d f o r a l l b r o a d o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p s b a s e d on a s a m p l e s u r v e y of h o u s e h o ld s . 1

N o n fa r m e m p lo y m e n t i n c r e a s e d ab o u t 30 p e r c e n t b e tw e e n 1950 and 1965 . T he n u m b e r of p r o f e s s i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l w o r k e r s in 1965 w a s ab ou t d o u b le the n u m b e r in 1950 . C l e r i c a l w o r k e r s and s e r v i c e w o r k e r s e x c e p t p r i v a t e h o u se h o ld w o r k e r s a l s o g r e w r e l a t i v e l y r a p i d and c o n s i s t e n t l y (46 and 52 p e r c e n t ) . E m p lo y m e n t o f m a n a g e r s , s a l e s w o r k e r s , a n d

p r i v a t e h o u s e h o ld w o r k e r s g r e w at ab o u t the s a m e r a t e a s t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t but m o r e s lo w ly than the t o t a l f o r n o n fa r m w o r k e r s . E m p lo y m e n t of n o n fa r m b l u e - c o l l a r w o r k e r s (the c r a f t s m e n , o p e r a t i v e s , and l a b o r e r s g r o u p s ) i n c r e a s e d a t l e s s than h a l f the r a t e f o r a l l o f n o n fa r m e m p lo y m e n t and thus d e c l in e d r e l a t i v e l y . F a r m w o r k e r s w e r e the on ly b r o a d g ro u p to d e c l i n e a b s o l u t e ly a s w e l l a s r e l a t i v e l y . The l o n g - t e r m d e c l i n e in f a r m w o r k e r s a p p e a r s to h a v e a c c e l e r a t e d s in c e the end of W orld W ar II. T h e f a r m w o rk f o r c e o f 1965 n u m b e r e d not m u c h m o r e than t h r e e - f i f t h s th at of 1950 . ( S e e t a b le 1 . )

1 Before February 1966, occupational data from the monthly survey of households were published regularly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in The Monthly Report on the Labor Force and in Employment and Earnings. Beginning in February 1966, both publications were combined to form the Employment and Earnings and Monthly Report on the L a b o r F o r c e . Before July 1959, the data were published by the Bureau of the Census in Current Population Reports, Series P250, Annual Report on the Labor Force.

T a b l e 1. C h an ge in E m p lo y m e n t by B r o a d O c c u p a t io n a l G r o u p , 195065

O c c u p a t io n a l g ro u pE m p lo y m e n t

g ro w th (in m i l l i o n s )

P e r c e n tch an g e1 9 5 0 -6 5

T o t a l -------------------------------------------------- 12. 5 21

T o t a l l e s s f a r m w o r k e r s ------------------------- 15. 7 30

W h i t e - c o l l a r ------------------------------------------------P r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l , and k in d r e d

9. 7 43

w o r k e r s ---------------------------------------------- 4. 4 98M a n a g e r s , o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r i e t o r s ----- . 9 14C l e r i c a l and k in d r e d w o r k e r s ----------------- 3. 5 46S a l e s w o r k e r s ------------------------------------------ . 9 23

B l u e - c o l l a r -------------------------------------------------C r a f t s m e n , f o r e m e n , and k in d r e d

3. 1 13

w o r k e r s ----------------------------------------------- 1. 6 20O p e r a t i v e s ---------------------------------------------- 1. 2 10L a b o r e r s ------------------------------------------------ . 3 10

S e r v i c e w o r k e r s ------------------------------------------ 2. 8 43P r i v a t e h o u se h o ld w o r k e r s --------------------- . 4 20O th er s e r v i c e w o r k e r s --------------------------- 2. 4 52

F a r m w o r k e r s --------------------------------------------- - 3 . 1 - 4 2F a r m o w n e r s and m a n a g e r s -------------------- - 2 . 1 - 4 9F a r m l a b o r e r s and f o r e m e n ------------------- - 1 . 0 - 3 3

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.


4H o w e v e r , e m p lo y m e n t t r e n d s fo r b r o a d o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p s a r e not a r e l i a b l e i n d i c a t o r o f the t r e n d s f o r in d iv id u a l o c c u p a t io n s w ith in e a c h g r o u p . F o r e x a m p l e , the p r o f e s s i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l w o r k e r s w e r e the f a s t e s t g ro w in g g r o u p , i n c r e a s i n g 47 p e r c e n t b e tw e e n the 1950 and I9 6 0 c e n s u s . N one o f the t r a d i t io n a l " l e a r n e d " p r o f e s s i o n s e q u a l e d thegro w th f o r the g ro u p --- c l e r g y m e n , l a w y e r s ,and d o c t o r s e a c h i n c r e a s i n g l e s s than 20 p e r cen t in n u m b e r s e m p lo y e d . S e r v i c e w o r k e r s ( e x c e p t p r i v a t e h o u se h o ld w o r k e r s ) i n c r e a s e d 27 p e r c e n t , but o f the 28 c e n s u s d e t a i le d o c c u p a t io n a l c a t e g o r i e s w hich m a k e up th is g r o u p , a l l but 10 h ad r a t e s o f g ro w th w hich w e r e l e s s than 5 p e r c e n t o r g r e a t e r than 50 p e r c e n t .

B e c a u s e o f the s c a r c i t y of c u r r e n t d a t a on e m p lo y m e n t in d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s b e tw een c e n s u s e s , the v a r i a b i l i t y of e m p l o y m e n t g r o w t h a m o n g o c c u p a t io n s f r o m one d e c a d e to the n e x t , and the d i f f e r e n t r a t e s of g ro w th f o r d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s w ithin a b r o a d o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p , it i s d i f f i c u l t to e s t a b l i s h p r e d i c t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t and the f a c t o r s th at g e n e r a t e o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s .

O c c u p a t io n a l E m p lo y m e n t F a c t o r s

T he d e m a n d f o r w o r k e r s in t o t a l and d i f f e r e n t i a t e d b y s k i l l r e s t s upon the d e m a n d f o r g o o d s and s e r v i c e s and the t e c h n o l o g i c a l , e c o n o m i c , and s o c i a l c o n d i t io n s f o r p r o d u c tion . F o r e x a m p l e , the d e m a n d f o r a u t o m o b i l e s t r a n s l a t e s in to t h e e m p lo y m e n t o f a v a r i e t y o f au to p la n t w o r k e r s , s t e e l w o r k e r s , i r o n o r e m i n e r s , au to s a l e s m e n , au to m e c h a n i c s , and g a s s t a t io n a t t e n d a n t s . O th er p a t t e r n s o f e m p lo y m e n t cou ld b e t r a c e d f r o m the d e m a n d f o r fo o d , c lo th in g , s h e l t e r , e d u c a t io n , a m u s e m e n t , and o th e r n e e d s and d e s i r e s of an i n c r e a s i n g l y e d u c a te d , m o b i l e , w e a l th y p o p u la t io n .

E a c h i n d u s t r y e m p lo y s l a b o r in a un ique c o m b in a t io n o f o c c u p a t io n a l s k i l l s t o g e t h e r with o th e r f a c t o r s o f p r o d u c t io n to a c h ie v e the l e a s t c o s t f o r i t s output. T h a t i s , m a n a g e r s o f e n t e r p r i s e s in a p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r y in t h e i r e f f o r t s to m a x i m i z e p r o f i t s m u s t c o m p a r e , th ro u g h e n g in e e r in g s t u d ie s o r in a l e s s f o r m a l m a n n e r , the r e l a t i v e c o s t o f v a r i o u s c o m b in a t io n s o f e q u ip m e n t and w o r k e r s th at c an b e u s e d to p r o d u c e the g o o d s o r s e r v i c e s of the in d u s t r y .

A s c h a n g e s o c c u r in the d e m a n d f o r the p r o d u c t s o f e a c h i n d u s t r y , in the t e c h n o l o g i c a l

a r r a n g e m e n t s f o r p r o d u c t io n th at a r e p o s s i b l e , and in the s u p p ly ( c o s t ) o f v a r i o u s ty p e s o f l a b o r and o th e r f a c t o r s o f p r o d u c t io n , the e m p lo y m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r w o r k e r s who h a v e d i f f e r e n t s k i l l s a l s o c h a n g e .

One a p p r o a c h to e x a m in in g the fu tu r e d e m a n d f o r l a b o r s u b d iv id e d by s k i l l o r o c c u p a t io n i s to c o n s i d e r :

(a) T h e fu tu r e t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t r e q u i r e d in e a c h in d u s t r y , and

(b) T h e o c c u p a t io n a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f to t a l e m p lo y m e n t in e a c h i n d u s t r y and the c h a n g e s in c o m p o s i t i o n l ik e ly to r e s u l t f r o m c h a n g e s in the t e c h n o l o g i c a l , e c o n o m i c , and s o c i a l b a s i s f o r p r o d u c t io n .

T h e a p p l i c a t i o n of the fu tu r e o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s to the p r o j e c t e d i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t t o t a l y i e l d s e s t i m a t e d e m p lo y m e n t by o c c u p a t io n f o r the in d u s t r y . If a l l i n d u s t r i e s a r e in c lu d e d , the p r o c e d u r e p r o v i d e s a s y s t e m a t i c and c o m p le t e a n a l y s i s o f fu tu r e o c c u p a t io n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r the e n t i r e e c o n o m y . 2

The B L S I n d u s t r y - O c c u p a t io n a l E m p lo y m e n t T a b l e

A s p a r t o f i t s w o rk on o c c u p a t io n a l i n f o r m a t i o n and a s a s t e p in a c o m p l e t e s y s t e m f o r p r o j e c t i o n of e m p lo y m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s by o c c u p a t io n , the B u r e a u h a s p r e p a r e d a t a b le show in g the o c c u p a t io n a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t in I9 6 0 . In c lu d in g r e s i d u a l s , the b a s e - p e r i o d m a t r i x f o r I9 6 0 sh o w s the c r o s s r e l a t i o n o f e m p lo y m e n t fo r 173 o c c u p a t io n s and 124 i n d u s t r i e s .

T h e b a s i c s o u r c e f o r r e l a t i v e l y d e t a i l e d and c o m p le t e i n f o r m a t i o n on the o c c u p a t io n a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t f o r the U. S . e c o n o m y i s the U. S . C e n s u s B u r e a u s O c c u p a t io n b y I n d u s t r y r e p o r t b a s e d on the I9 6 0 c e n s u s . T he B L S o c c u p a t io n by i n d u s t r y t a b le d e p e n d s on but d i f f e r s f r o m the c e n s u s r e p o r t . T h e m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e s a r e(1) the B L S t a b le h a s b e e n m a d e c o n s i s t e n t with d a t a w hich a r e a v a i l a b l e a n n u a l ly and

2 Occupational employment requirements can be and are projected also in other ways. For a number of occupations em ployment requirements can be related more directly to significant variables. For exam ple, the number of teachers needed can be estim ated from projections of the number of students and an acceptable student-teacher ratio. Estimates developed in this way can be incorporated into the system of industry-occupational ratios as explained later.

3 U. S. Bureau of the Census, U. S, Census of Population:1960, Subject Reports, Occupation by Industry, Final Report PC(2)-7C, 1963.


5w hich a r e the b a s i s f o r p r o j e c t i o n s o f to t a l U. S . e m p lo y m e n t and e m p lo y m e n t by i n d u s try ; and (2) the B L S t a b le u s e s o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t d a ta f r o m a n u m b e r of o th e r s o u r c e s a s w e l l a s f r o m the c e n s u s . A m o r e d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o f the B L S in d u s t r y - o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t t a b le i s g iv e n in the p a r a g r a p h s b e low .

T he d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s in t h e B L S i n d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l e m p lo y m e n t t a b le i n c lu d e t h o se w hich r e q u i r e e x t e n s i v e f o r m a l e d u c a t io n , o r o th e r s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g , and o t h e r s w h ich e m p lo y l a r g e n u m b e r s of p e o p le . B e c a u s e o f the i n t e r e s t in o c c u p a t io n s which r e q u i r e a long t r a in in g p e r i o d , m a n y of the d e t a i le d o c c u p a t io n s in the t a b le a r e in the p r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l , o r c r a f t s m e n g r o u p s . The o c c u p a t io n a l t i t l e s in the t a b le a r e g e n e r a l l y s i m i l a r to th o s e u s e d by the C e n s u s B u r e a u in i t s t a b u la t io n s of C e n s u s of P o p u la t io n d a ta . 4 T he t a b le a l s o fo l lo w s the c e n s u s s y s t e m of c l a s s i f y i n g d e t a i le d o c c u p a t io n s into b r o a d s o c i o e c o n o m i c g r o u p s su c h a s p r o f e s s i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l , m a n a g e r i a l , c l e r i c a l , l a b o r e r , e tc . R e s i d u a l s a r e show n f o r e a c h s o c i o e c o n o m i c g r o u p , s o that the o c c u p a t io n a l l i s t i s e x h a u s t i v e f o r a l l e m p lo y m e n t . The o c c u p a t io n s a r e l i s t e d in a p p e n d ix A w h e re d i f f e r e n c e s in d e f in i t io n with p u b l i s h e d c e n s u s t i t l e s a r e in d ic a te d .

C r i t e r i a f o r s e p a r a t e id e n t i f i c a t io n o f i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s in the i n d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l t a b le w e r e that the in d u s t r y e m p lo y an a p p r e c ia b le n u m b e r o f w o r k e r s in the d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s s h o w n , and that the p r o d u c t io n p r o c e s s e s and te c h n o lo g y r e q u i r e an o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e d i f f e r i n g f r o m th at o f o th e r i n d u s t r i e s . I n d u s t r i e s p a r t i c u l a r l y s u b j e c t to t e c h n o l o g i c a l ch an g e o r r a p id g ro w th sh o u ld a l s o be t r e a t e d s e p a r a t e l y . S in c e c h a n g e s in in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t a r e in d ic a t iv e o f c h a n g e s in e m p lo y m e n t f o r the o c c u p a t io n s found in the in d u s t r y , it i s im p o r t a n t th at the i n d u s t r i e s in the t a b le be t h o s e f o r w hich c u r r e n t and h i s t o r i c a l d a t a on e m p lo y m e n t , output and p r o d u c t iv i t y , o r o th e r in fo r m a t i o n , p r o v id e a b a s i s o f p r o j e c t i n g the g ro w th o r d e c l in e in e m p lo y m e n t th at i s e x p e c te d b e tw e e n the b a s e y e a r and the p r o j e c t e d y e a r . The in d u s t r y l i s t f o r the i n d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l m a t r i x i s a l s o e x h a u s t i v e and can be s u m m a r i z e d to tw o -d ig it an d on e-d ig it S t a n d a r d In d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n a l (SIC) l e v e l s . The o c c u p a t io n a l m a t r i x i n d u s t r i e s , id e n t i f ie d by c o d e s f r o m the S IC , a r e show n in ap p e n d ix B a lo n g with e m p lo y m e n t e s t i m a t e s f o r I9 6 0 and 1975.

T h e I9 6 0 t a b le w ould be m o r e u s e f u l i f g r e a t e r d e t a i l than now show n w e r e i n c o r p o r a te d in a n u m b e r o f a r e a s . M o s t o f the o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n s a r e f o r t h r e e - d i g i t o r a c o m b in a t io n o f the t h r e e - d i g i t S IC i n d u s t r i e s in m a n u f a c t u r i n g , c o m m u n i c a t i o n s , p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s , and w h o l e s a l e t r a d e . T he p a t t e r n s a r e g e n e r a l l y at the t w o - d ig i t S IC l e v e l f o r o th e r i n d u s t r i e s . Only a s in g le o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n i s show n fo r the e n t i r e c o n s t r u c t io n in d u s t r y . T he o c c u p a t io n a l m i x r e q u i r e d f o r h igh w ay and b r i d g e c o n s t r u c t i o n i s u n l ik e the o c c u p a t io n a l m i x r e q u i r e d f o r h o u s in g c o n s t r u c t i o n . If an a t t e m p t w e r e m a d e to a s s e s s the o c c u p a t io n a l im p a c t o f a s h a r p ch a n g e in h igh w ay c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y , the c u r r e n t t a b le w ould not be s u f f i c i e n t l y s p e c i f i c . The p o te n t ia l u s e f u l n e s s o f the i n d u s t r y - o c c u p a t io n a l m a t r i x w ould be im p r o v e d i f g r e a t e r i n d u s t r y d e t a i l than now in c lu d e d w e r e show n f o r the c o n s t r u c t i o n and s o m e o th e r i n d u s t r y s e c t o r s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e i n d u s t r i e s a s s o c ia te d with d e f e n s e , s o c i a l w e l f a r e , and s p a c e p r o g r a m s . T he s t a t i s t i c s a v a i l a b l e f o r p r e p a r i n g o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n s f o r the a r e a s m o s t in n e e d o f r e f in e m e n t a r e l e s s c o m p le te in o c c u p a t io n a l d e t a i l and m a y be p o o r e r in o th e r a s p e c t s than the d a t a now in the m a t r i x . H o w e v e r , a t t e m p t s t o d e v e lo p o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n s in g r e a t e r in d u s t r y d e t a i l w i l l be m a d e when t im e p e r m i t s . S ig n i f i c a n t i m p r o v e m e n t s in the t a b le a r e e x p e c te d a s a r e s u l t o f the new p r o g r a m b e in g lau n ch ed by B L S to c o l l e c t o c c u p a t io n a l d a ta d i r e c t l y f r o m e m p l o y e r s . U n d e r the new p r o g r a m , r e g u l a r s u r v e y s w i l l be m a d e of the c u r r e n t o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e of d e t a i le d i n d u s t r i e s w hich e m p lo y s i g n i f i c a n t n u m b e r s of w o r k e r s in o c c u p a t io n s w hich r e q u i r e e x t e n s i v e t r a in in g .

S o u r c e s o f D a t a

In s e a r c h i n g f o r d a ta , an im p o r t a n t o b j e c t i v e w a s to l o c a t e s o u r c e s w hich p r o v i d e o c c u p a t io n and i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t e s t i m a t e s an n u a l ly o r m o r e o ften , so th at the c h a n g e s in o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n s by in d u s t r y , and fo r the e c o n o m y , cou ld be e x a m in e d c l o s e l y f o r th e i r r e l a t i o n to t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e , m o r e r a p id g ro w th o f s o m e i n d u s t r i e s than f o r o t h e r s , e tc . H o w e v e r , the d a t a w hich sh o w e m p l o y m e n t by o c c u p a t io n w ithin d e t a i l e d in d u s t r i e s on an an n u a l b a s i s a r e not v e r y e x t e n s iv e

4In the Census system, the composition of each occupational

category is shown by a listing of the occupational titles which are included in the category. See 1960 Census of Population, C lassified Index of Occupations and Industries. U. S. Bureau of the Census, 1960.


6and m a j o r r e l i a n c e w a s p l a c e d on c e n s u s d a t a w h ich a r e a v a i l a b l e on ly e v e r y 10 y e a r s . B e c a u s e o f the in te n d e d u s e o f the m a t r i x to p r o j e c t o c c u p a t io n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s , it w a s e s s e n t i a l to d e v e lo p d a t a w hich w e r e c o n s i s t e n t with and r e l a t e d a s c l o s e l y a s p o s s i b l e to d a t a w hich a r e the b a s i s f o r p r o j e c t i o n s o f t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t and e m p lo y m e n t by i n d u s t r y .

T o ta l E m p l o y m e n t . D a t a c o l l e c t e d e a c h m on th th ro u g h a n a t io n w id e s u r v e y o f h o u s e h o ld s and p u b l i s h e d in E m p lo y m e n t and E a r n in g s and M onth ly R e p o r t on the L a b o r F o r c e ( E E M R L F ) a r e r e c o g n i z e d a s the a u t h o r i t a t iv e e s t i m a t e s o f t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t f o r the U . S . e c o n o m y . T h e e s t i m a t e s a r e b a s e d on d a t a g a t h e r e d f o r the B L S by the B u r e a u of the C e n s u s by c a r e f u l l y t r a i n e d i n t e r v i e w e r s f r o m a s a m p l e o f 5 2 , 5 0 0 h o u s e h o ld s . A l l c l a s s e s o f w o r k e r s a r e in c lu d e d the s e l f - e m p l o y e d and u n p a id f a m i l y w o r k e r s a s w e l l a s w a g e and s a l a r y w o r k e r s . T h e h o u se h o ld s u r v e y d a t a on t r e n d s in l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s by a g e and s e x a r e the b a s i s f o r p r o j e c t i o n s o f the t o t a l s i z e o f the l a b o r f o r c e and o f t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t u n d e r v a r i o u s a s s u m e d l e v e l s o f u n e m p lo y m e n t . T he an n u al a v e r a g e o f the m o n th ly e s t i m a t e s w a s u s e d a s the e s t i m a t e o f t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t in the I9 6 0 i n d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l e m p lo y m e n t t a b le . A t p r e s e n t , the e s t i m a t e s r e f e r on ly to the p r i m a r y j o b o f e a c h p e r s o n and e x c lu d e the a d d i t io n a l j o b s o f th o s e who h a v e m o r e than on e .

O c c u p a t io n a l G ro u p T o t a l s . T h e h o u s e hold s u r v e y a l s o d e v e lo p s e s t i m a t e s o f e m p lo y m e n t f o r o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p s , and a few d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s w hich e m p lo y s i g n i f i c a n t n u m b e r s o f p e o p le . 5 In a h o u s e h o ld - ty p e s u r v e y t h e r e a r e p r o b l e m s o f o c c u p a t io n a l u p g r a d in g and l a c k o f k n o w le d g e by the h o u s e h o l d e r r e s p o n d e n t a s to the c o r r e c t t i t le o r d e s c r i p t i o n o f the w o r k e r s ' o c c u p a t io n , a s w e l l a s s a m p l i n g e r r o r . N e v e r t h e l e s s , if b e t t e r e s t i m a t e s f r o m o th e r s o u r c e s w e r e not a v a i l a b l e , r e l i a n c e w a s p l a c e d on the h o u s e hold s u r v e y . T h e h o u se h o ld s u r v e y e s t i m a t e s f o r c e r t a i n l a r g e b l o c s of w o r k e r s a r e c o n s i d e r e d to be the b e s t a v a i l a b l e a t th i s t im e . E x c e p t f o r m in o r v a r i a t i o n s , the e s t i m a t e s f o r I9 6 0 f o r the fo l lo w in g o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p s w e r e c o n s i d e r e d a s c o n t r o l t o t a l s f o r the d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s in c lu d e d in e a c h g r o u p .

5 Data are collected by the Bureau of the Census through the Current Population Survey. The occupational classification system is the sam e as that used for the decennial censuses.

Professional and technical workers Drivers and deliverymenManagers, officials, and proprietors Other operatives

Stenographers, typists, and secretaries

Other clerical workers

Salesworkers

CarpentersConstruction craftsmen, except

carpentersMechanics and repairmen M etal craftsmen, except mechanics Foremen, not elsewhere classified Other craftsmen and kindred workers

Nonfarm laborers

Private household workers Other service workers

Farm workers

T o t a l E m p lo y m e n t in E a c h I n d u s t r y . E s t i m a t e s of t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t f o r e a c h m a t r i x in d u s t r y w e r e d e v e lo p e d to in c lu d e a l l c l a s s e sof w o r k e r s --- the s e l f - e m p l o y e d a n d u n p a i df a m i l y w o r k e r s , a s w e l l a s th o s e who w o rk f o r w a g e s o r s a l a r i e s . W o r k e r s h o ld in g two j o b s o r m o r e w e r e co u n ted on ly in the i n d u s t r y o f t h e i r p r i m a r y jo b . E m p lo y m e n t by F e d e r a l , S t a t e , and l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s w a s s e p a r a t e d in to p u b l ic and n o n pu b lic a d m i n i s t r a t io n a c t i v i t i e s su c h a s e d u c a t io n , h o s p i t a l o p e r a t io n , h igh w ay c o n s t r u c t i o n , w a t e r s u p p ly , and o th e r u t i l i ty o p e r a t io n . G o v e r n m e n t e m p lo y m e n t in the l a t t e r a c t i v i t i e s w a s c o m b ined with e s t i m a t e s of e m p lo y m e n t in the p r i v a t e s e c t o r f o r the s a m e a c t i v i t i e s to a r r i v e at t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t f o r e a c h ty p e of a c t i v i t y b e c a u s e f o r m o s t i n d u s t r i e s the o c c u p a t i o n a l p a t t e r n s a v a i l a b l e f r o m p o p u la t io n c e n s u s t a b u la t io n s w e r e on th is b a s i s .

No s in g le s o u r c e a t p r e s e n t p r o v i d e s e m p lo y m e n t in fo r m a t i o n an n u a l ly o r at o th e r f r e q u e n t i n t e r v a l s , f o r a l l c l a s s e s o f w o r k e r s , in the in d u s t r y d e t a i l d e s i r e d f o r the m a t r i x , H o w e v e r , d e t a i l e d i n d u s t r y e s t i m a t e s f o r theg r e a t b u lk o f e m p lo y m e n t--- the p r i v a t e w a g eand s a l a r y w o r k e r s --- a r e d e v e lo p e d m o n th lyand a n n u a l ly in the B L S I n d u s t r y E m p lo y m e n t S t a t i s t i c s s e r i e s . E x c lu d in g w o r k e r s in a g r i c u l t u r e , p r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s , and g o v e r n m e n t , the B L S e s t i m a t e s o f p r i v a t e w a g e and s a l a r y w o r k e r s a c c o u n te d f o r ab ou t 85 p e r c e n t of t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t in I9 6 0 . 6 In m o s t o f the d e t a i le d i n d u s t r i e s in m in in g , m a n u f a c t u r i n g , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and c o m m u n i c a t i o n p r i v a t e w a g e and s a l a r y w o r k e r s m a k e up 95 p e r c e n t of t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t o r m o r e . In o th e r i n d u s t r i e s , i n f o r m a t i o n on the n u m b e r o f g o v e r n m e n t w o r k e r s , o b ta in e d f r o m the S u r v e y

k In 1960 the BLS industry survey estim ate of private wage and salary workers was 69 percent of the household survey estimate of total U .S . employment (a ll industries, all classes of workers). The latter survey also estim ates separate employment in agriculture and private households.


7of G o v e r n m e n t s , f r o m u n e m p lo y m e n t i n s u r an ce s t a t i s t i c s , and f r o m the U. S . C i v i l S e r v - i c e C o m m i s s i o n , w hen a d d e d to d a ta on p r i v a te w a g e and s a l a r y w o r k e r s , c o m e c lo s e to to t a l e m p lo y m e n t . On the o th e r han d, in a g r i c u l t u r e , c o n s t r u c t i o n , r e t a i l t r a d e , and m a n y o f the s e r v i c e i n d u s t r i e s , s u c h a s b a r b e r and b e a u ty s h o p s , r e p a i r s e r v i c e , l e g a l s e r v i c e s , and m e d i c a l s e r v i c e s o th e r than h o s p i t a l s , s e l f - e m p l o y e d o r u n p a i d f a m i l y w o r k e r s c o n s t i tu te an a p p r e c i a b l e p o r t io n of e m p lo y m e n t . S t a t i s t i c s f r o m the p o p u la t io n c e n s u s , the m o n th ly h o u se h o ld s u r v e y o f the l a b o r f o r c e , and o th e r s o u r c e s p r o v id e i n f o r m a t io n on the n u m b e r o f s e l f - e m p l o y e d and u n p a id f a m i l y w o r k e r s in e a c h in d u s t r y g r o u p .

U s in g the B L S e s t i m a t e s o f w a g e and s a l a r y e m p l o y m e n t in e a c h i n d u s t r y a s a b a s e , e s t i m a t e s f o r the o th e r c l a s s e s o f w o r k e r s d e v e lo p e d f r o m the s o u r c e s m e n t io n e d w e r e a d d e d (and an e s t i m a t e o f the n u m b e r of dua l jo b h o l d e r s s u b t r a c t e d ) , and the su m of the t o t a l s f o r d e t a i l e d i n d u s t r i e s w a s f o r c e d to a g r e e w ith the e s t i m a t e o f t o t a l U. S . e m p l o y m e n t f r o m the h o u se h o ld s u r v e y . 7 T h is p r o c e d u r e p r o v i d e s a b r i d g e b e tw e e n the B L S i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t s t a t i s t i c s (w age and s a l a r y w o r k e r s on ly) , and the to t a l n u m b e r o f w o r k e r s c o n c e p t u s e d b y the C e n s u s B u r e a u in the o c c u p a t io n by i n d u s t r y d a ta f r o m p o p u la t io n c e n s u s and a l s o u s e d fo r the m o n th ly h o u se h o ld s u r v e y o f the l a b o r f o r c e .

T h u s the in d u s t r y e s t i m a t e s a r e r e l a t e d in a s p e c i f i e d m a n n e r to the l a r g e m a s s o f f r e q u e n t l y a v a i l a b le in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t d a ta (w age and s a l a r y w o r k e r s ) w h ich a r e the b a s i s f o r d e t a i l e d p r o j e c t i o n s of in d u s t r y e m p l o y m e n t . The e s t i m a t e s a r e a l s o the s a m e in type of w o r k e r s in c lu d e d and e x c lu d e d a s the b a s i c o c c u p a t io n b y i n d u s t r y d a ta o f the p o p u la t io n c e n s u s . F i n a l l y , to ta l e m p l o y m e n t h a s b e e n m a d e e q u a l to to t a l n a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t d e v e lo p e d f r o m the m o n th ly h o u se h o ld s u r v e y , w h ich i s u s e d in p r o j e c t i o n s of the to ta l n u m b e r o f e m p l o y e d w o r k e r s .

D e ta i l e d O c c u p a t i o n s T o ta l E m p lo y m e n t and N u m b e r in E a c h I n d u s t r y . The only c o m p le te s e t o f d a t a w h ich show the s im u l t a n e o u s d i s t r i b u t i o n o f to t a l e m p lo y m e n t in the U n ited S t a t e s to a r a t h e r d e t a i le d s e t o f o c c u p a t io n s and i n d u s t r i e s , i s b a s e d on in fo r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d d u r in g the d e c e n n ia l c e n s u s e s . F o r I9 6 0 , the c e n s u s p u b l ic a t io n sh o w s the d i s t r i b u t ion o f 297 o c c u p a t io n a l c a t e g o r i e s to 149 i n d u s t r i e s . 8 S i m i l a r t a b l e s w e r e p u b l i s h e d a f t e r the 1950 c e n s u s , and t a b l e s show in g l e s s d e t a i l w e r e p u b l i s h e d a f t e r o th e r c e n

s u s e s . The c e n s u s d a ta a r e the e s s e n t i a l , b a s i c s o u r c e f o r m u c h m a n p o w e r a n a l y s i s and p o l i c y d e v e lo p m e n t .

H o w e v e r , c e n s u s d a t a d i f f e r f r o m i n d u s t r y and o c c u p a t io n a l e s t i m a t e s in o th e r s o u r c e s w h ich a r e c o n s i d e r e d m o r e r e l i a b l e , and s o m e o f the d i f f e r e n c e s a r e a p p r e c i a b l e .

a . O c c u p a t io n a l i n f o r m a t i o n w a s not a v a i l a b l e f r o m the c e n s u s f o r ab ou t 4 . 7 m i l l i o n w o r k e r s , o r 7 p e r c e n t o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e r e p o r t e d b y the m o n th ly h o u s e h o ld s u r v e y . T he to ta l w a s c o m p o s e d o f 3. 2 m i l l i o n w o r k e r s who d id not r e p o r t th e i r o c c u p a t io n s , and a 1 . 5 m i l l i o n u n d e r coun t o f e m p lo y m e n t c o m p a r e d w ith the e s t i m a t e s o f the m o n th ly h o u se h o ld s u r v e y . A v a i l a b l e e v id e n c e i n d i c a t e s th at the u n d e r count i s not r e l a t e d in a s i m p le p r o p o r t i o n a t e m a n n e r to the s i z e o f to t a l e m p l o y m e n t w h ich the c e n s u s r e p o r t e d in e a c h o c c u p a t io n . 9

b. O th er s o u r c e s a r e b e l i e v e d to p r o v i d e m o r e r e l i a b l e d a t a f o r s e l e c t e d o c c u p a t i o n s , o r o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p s than do c e n s u s s t a t i s t i c s . T h e s e s o u r c e s a c c o u n te d fo r ab o u t t h r e e - f i f t h s o f a l l p r o f e s s i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l w o r k e r s and ab out o n e - f i f th o f a l l n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l e m p lo y m e n t . 10

c . C e n s u s d a ta a r e a v a i l a b l e on ly on ce e v e r y 10 y e a r s .

d. C e n s u s e s t i m a t e s d i f f e r f r o m d a ta w h ich a r e u s e d to p r o j e c t t o t a l U. S . e m p l o y m e n t (m on th ly h o u se h o ld s u r v e y d a ta published i n EEMRLF). They a l s o d i f f e r f r o m c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e s w h ich a r e the b a s i s f o r p r o j e c t i o n s of e m p lo y m e n t in d e t a i l e d i n d u s t r i e s (the B L S in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t s e r i e s ) .

7 The forcing procedure was in steps by industry group. None of the differences between the initial estim ates and the final estimates was larger than 2. 5 percent.

8 U. S. Bureau of the Census, U. S. Census of Population: 1960 Subject Reports Occupations by Industry, 1963.

9 See U. S. Bureau of the Census Evaluation and Research Program of the U. S. Censuses of Population and Housing, I960. The Employer Record Check; and Evaluation and Research Program of the U. S. Censuses of Population and Housing, I960. Accuracy of Data on Population Characteristics as Measured by CPS-Census Match.

1 For a description of sources and characteristics of occupational statistics, see Occupational Employment Statistics: Sourcesand D ata, Report 305, U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1966.


8T he B L S e s t i m a t e s of e m p lo y m e n t fo r d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s in d e t a i l e d i n d u s t r i e s w e r e o b ta in e d in two g e n e r a l w a y s . F o r a n u m b e r o f o c c u p a t i o n s , e s t i m a t e s f r o m s o u r c e s c o n s i d e r e d r e l i a b l e , w hich p r o v i d e d a ta a n n u a l ly o r e v e r y few y e a r s , w e r e u s e d . In a d d it io n to b r o a d o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p e s t i m a t e s f r o m the m o n th ly h o u se h o ld s u r v e y , the fo l lo w in g d a t a w e r e c o n s i d e r e d p r e f e r a b l e to c e n s u s s t a t i s t i c s : E m p lo y m e n t o f s c i e n t i s t s and e n g i n e e r s by in d u s t r y b a s e d on B L S s u r v e y s o f e m p l o y e r s ; e m p lo y m e n t of t e a c h e r s and l i b r a r i a n s b a s e d on d a ta c o l l e c t e d by the O f f ic e o f E d u c a t i o n ; e m p lo y m e n t by o c c u p a t io n d a t a c o l l e c t e d by r e g u l a t o r y a g e n c i e s f o r i n t e r s t a t e i n d u s t r i e s in c lu d in g r a i l r o a d s , a i r l i n e s , te le p h o n e and t e l e g r a p h c o m m u n ic a t i o n s , and p i p e l i n e s ; e m p lo y m e n t d a ta c o l l e c t e d by p r o f e s s i o n a l s o c i e t i e s , e s p e c i a l l y m e d i c a l and h e a l th o c c u p a t io n s ; s e l e c t e d d a ta f r o m B L S i n d u s t r y and c o m m u n ity w a g e s u r v e y s ; in f o r m a t i o n f r o m the P o s t O f f ic e D e p a r t m e n t on e m p lo y m e n t by o c c u p a t io n in the P o s t O f f ic e ; and F e d e r a l C iv i l S e r v i c e C o m m i s s i o n s t a t i s t i c s on e m p lo y m e n t by o c c u p a t ion in o th e r F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t a g e n c i e s . 11

T he s e c o n d g e n e r a l m e th o d w a s u s e d f o r o c c u p a t io n s f o r w hich e m p lo y m e n t d a t a w e r e not a v a i l a b l e a n n u a l ly , o r at s o m e o th e r r e l a t iv e ly s h o r t i n t e r v a l . F o r t h e s e o c c u p a t i o n s , d a t a f r o m the I9 6 0 P o p u la t io n C e n s u s O c c u p a t io n by I n d u s t r y , t a b l e s w e r e a d ju s t e d f o r u n d e rc o u n t and o th e r d i f f e r e n c e s with d a t a f r o m p r e f e r r e d s o u r c e s , su c h a s an n u a l a v e r a g e s f r o m the m o n th ly h o u se h o ld s u r v e y and the B L S i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t e s t i m a t e s . T h e d i f f e r e n c e s w e r e a v a i l a b l e on ly at v a r i o u s s u m m a r y l e v e l s . A d ju s t m e n t of the d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s in d e t a i l e d i n d u s t r i e s w a s a c c o m p l i s h e d by f o r c i n g c e n s u s e s t i m a t e s a l t e r n a t e ly to in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t t o t a l s , and to o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p t o t a l s , o b ta in e d a s d e s c r i b e d a b o v e . T h e a l t e r n a t e fo r c i n g w a s r e p e a t e d u n t i l the d a t a in the in t e r n a l c e l l s w e r e c o n s i s t e n t with both s e t s o f m a r g i n a l c o n t r o l s . A lth o u gh m a n y o f the e s t i m a t e s in the t a b le d epe n d on c e n s u s d a t a , few , i f an y , a r e i d e n t i c a l and a p p r o x i m a t e l y o n e - t h i r d of the i n t e r n a l c e l l s o f the t a b le w hich a r e not z e r o a r e f i l l e d by r e f e r e n c e to s o u r c e s o th e r than the c e n s u s .

S in c e d a ta in t h e I9 6 0 m a t r i x w e r e b ro u g h t t o g e t h e r f r o m m a n y s o u r c e s , no s i m p le e x p r e s s i o n i s p o s s i b l e o f m a t h e m a t i c a l m e a s u r e s o f r e l i a b i l i t y s u c h a s s a m p l i n g e r r o r . H o w e v e r , the p r o c e d u r e s a d a p te d a r e b e l ie v e d to p r o v i d e a u s e f u l s e t o f d a t a fo r e s t i m a t e s o f e m p lo y m e n t by o c c u p a t io n in

e a c h in d u s t r y in I 9 6 0 , and f o r u s e a s a b a s e f o r p r o j e c t i o n o f e m p lo y m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s to fu tu re y e a r s .

P r o j e c t i o n o f O c c u p a t i o n a l E m p lo y m e n t P a t t e r n s f o r E a c h I n d u s t r y

T h e m a j o r p u r p o s e o f th i s s tu d y h a s b e e n to d e v e lo p o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s f o r e a c h i n d u s t r y to be u s e d a s a to o l in p r o j e c t i n g o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s . P r o j e c t i o n o f the o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e o f e a c h i n d u s t r y w a s b a s e d on e x a m in a t io n o f h i s t o r i c a l s t a t i s t i c s and e v a lu a t io n o f o th e r i n f o r m a t i o n , s u c h a s d e s c r i p t i o n s o f new m a c h i n e r y and m e t h o d s , new r a w m a t e r i a l s , and o th e r f a c t o r s th at m ig h t h e lp to e x p la in c h a n g e s in o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e .

I n i t i a l ly , the a v a i l a b l e h i s t o r i c a l s t a t i s t i c s on the c h an g in g o c c u p a t io n a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f d e t a i l e d i n d u s t r i e s w e r e p r o j e c t e d by s i m p le t i m e t r e n d . D a t a on e m p lo y m e n t in e a c h o c c u p a t io n in e a c h i n d u s t r y w e r e a v a i l a b l e f r o m the p o p u la t io n c e n s u s e s o f 1950 a n d I9 6 0 . F o r s o m e i n d u s t r i e s , d a t a w e r e a l s o a v a i l a b l e f r o m o th e r s o u r c e s . T h e o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t l e v e l s w e r e c o n v e r t e d to r a t i o s o f t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t in e a c h i n d u s t r y . 1 2

T h e t r e n d fo r e a c h o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o , w h e th e r f r o m the c e n s u s d a t a o r a n o th e r s o u r c e w a s e x te n d e d to 1 9 7 5 , and the i n d i c a te d c h a n g e f r o m the I9 6 0 l e v e l w a s a d d e d to the a p p r o p r i a t e r a t i o in the b a s e p e r i o d (1960) in d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l e m p lo y m e n t ta b le w hich i s d e s c r i b e d in the p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n o f th i s r e p o r t .

In the m in in g and m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s , m o n th ly and an n u a l d a t a w e r e a v a i l a b l e th ro u gh 1965 on the n u m b e r o f p r o d u c t io n w o r k e r s , a s w e l l a s on t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t , f r o m the B L S i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t s t a t i s t i c s . T h e s e d a t a a r e b a s e d on the c o l l e c t i o n o f t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t and p r o d u c t io n w o r k e r e m p lo y m e n t f r o m b u s i n e s s e s t a b l i s h m e n t s . 13 T he in d u s t r y s t a t i s t i c s on the p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t f o r p r o d u c t io n and n o n p r o d u c t io n w o r k e r s w e r e c o n s i d e r e d p r e f e r a b l e

11 Ibid.12 Some adjustments to the published census statistics were

made for greater comparability between 1950 and 1960 as the industry classification of 1960 differed from that of 1950.

For a description of the sources and procedures for com piling the industry payroll employment estimates, see chap. 2 of BLS Handbook of Methods for Surveys and Studies, Bulletin 1458, U. S. Department o f Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1966.


9to c e n s u s d a t a , f o r t h e s e v e r y b r o a d o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p s b e c a u s e th ey a r e b a s e d on e m p lo y e r r e p o r t s , r a t h e r than r e p o r t s o f h o u s e hold r e s p o n d e n t s , and b e c a u s e m o r e o b s e r v a t io n s and m o r e r e c e n t d a t a w e r e a v a i l a b l e than f r o m the c e n s u s . C h a n g e s in the p r o d u c tion w o r k e r r a t i o th ro u g h 1965 w e r e p lo t te d and e x a m in e d . T r e n d l in e s w e r e c a l c u l a t e d (by l e a s t s q u a r e s p r o c e d u r e s ) f o r the r a t i o o f p r o d u c t io n w o r k e r s to t o t a l e m p lo y m e n t o v e r t i m e f o r e a c h m in in g and m a n u fa c t u r in g in d u s t r y . T h e p r o d u c t io n and n o n p r o d u c t io n w o r k e r t r e n d s w e r e u s e d to m o d i fy the c e n s u s t r e n d s fo r the d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s w hich m a k e up e a c h o f the b r o a d g r o u p s .

A v a r i e t y o f o th e r s t a t i s t i c s c o v e r i n g v a r y in g s p a n s o f t i m e w a s g a t h e r e d and a r r a n g e d to r e v e a l e v id e n c e o f t r e n d s in e m p lo y m e n t by o c c u p a t io n f o r p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r i e s o r fo r the e n t i r e e c o n o m y . R e c e n t y e a r s 1 d a t a w e r e a v a i l a b l e on e m p lo y m e n t by o c c u p a t io n in the P o s t O f f ic e D e p a r t m e n t and o th e r a g e n c i e s o f the F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t . A l s o e x a m in e d w e r e s t a t i s t i c s on e m p lo y m e n t by o c c u p a t io n a l g ro u p f o r a l im i t e d n u m b e r o f d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n s in r a i l r o a d s , a i r l i n e s , p i p e l i n e s , and te le p h o n e and t e l e g r a p h c o m m u n ic a t i o n s . S t a t i s t i c s p u b l i s h e d by the B L S on the e m p lo y m e n t o f s c i e n t i s t s , e n g i n e e r s , and t e c h n i c i a n s ; by the O f f ic e o f E d u c a t io n fo r t e a c h e r s and l i b r a r i a n s ; and by the P u b l i c H ea lth S e r v i c e f o r o c c u p a t io n s in m e d i c a l and h e a l th w o rk w e r e r e v ie w e d . U n p u b l ish e d d a t a on o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t f r o m t h e B u r e a u s w a g e s u r v e y s and f r o m the m o n th ly h o u se h o ld s u r v e y o f the p o p u la t io n w e r e a l s o a r r a n g e d in t i m e s e r i e s and e x a m in e d fo r e v id e n c e o f ch a n g e in p r o p o r t i o n a t e e m p l o y m e n t . 1 4

A f t e r the a v a i l a b l e s t a t i s t i c s on the o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e o f i n d u s t r i e s in the p o s t w a r p e r io d w e r e a r r a n g e d in t i m e s e r i e s , e f f o r t s w e r e d i r e c t e d to f inding the c a u s e ofthe p a s t c h a n g e s in o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e ---i. e. , b e tw e e n 1950 and I960 c e n s u s e s , o r fo r o th e r p o s t w a r p e r i o d s i f d a t a w e r e a v a i l a b l e f r o m s o u r c e s o th e r than the c e n s u s e s . An a t t e m p t w a s m a d e to d e t e r m in e w h e th e r the f a c t o r s o f the r e c e n t p a s t w e r e l ik e ly to c o n tinue to a f f e c t o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e in the p e r io d a h e a d to a s i m i l a r , g r e a t e r , o r l e s s e r ex ten t . E f f o r t s w e r e m a d e a l s o to u n c o v e r e m e r g i n g f a c t o r s , w hich a l th ou gh u n im p o r ta n t b e f o r e I 9 6 0 , m a y be s i g n i f i c a n t b e tw e e n I9 6 0 and 1975.

R a t i o s f o r s o m e o c c u p a t io n s w e r e a d ju s t e d a l s o to a g r e e with e s t i m a t e s m a d e f o r

the t o t a l e c o n o m y b a s e d on a d i r e c t q u a n t i t a t iv e r e l a t i o n to the s i g n i f i c a n t d e m a n d v a r i a b le . F o r e x a m p l e , auto and t r u c k m e c h a n i c s a r e found in m a n y i n d u s t r i e s . In a d d it io n to t h o s e e m p lo y e d by g a r a g e s and auto s a l e s a g e n c i e s , o t h e r s a r e e m p lo y e d by g a s o l i n e s e r v i c e s t a t i o n s and t r u c k in g and t a x i c o m p a n i e s . S m a l l n u m b e r s a r e found a l s o in m a n y i n d u s t r i e s w hich u s e f l e e t s o f t r u c k s o r a u t o s . A n a t io n a l e s t i m a t e o f the n u m b e r o f au to and t r u c k m e c h a n i c s r e q u i r e d in 1975 w a s d e v e lo p e d b a s e d on e s t i m a t e s o f the f u t u r e n u m b e r o f c a r s and t r u c k s by a g e g r o u p , f r e q u e n c y o f r e p a i r r a t e s , and o th e r f a c t o r s . The r a t i o s f o r auto m e c h a n i c s in i t i a l ly d e v e lo p e d fo r e a c h i n d u s t r y w e r e a d ju s t e d s o th at when a p p l i e d to the i n d u s t r y e s t i m a t e s u s e d with th is s tu d y the f in a l r a t i o s w e r e c o n s i s t e n t with the e s t i m a t e o f to t a l r e q u i r e m e n t s d e v e lo p e d f o r au to m e c h a n i c s .

U n l e s s b a s e s w e r e found fo r m o d i f i c a t io n , the p a s t e f f e c t s o f s o c i a l and t e c h n o l o g i c a l t r e n d s in the p o s t - W o r ld W ar II p e r i o d on i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t and o c c u p a t io n a l c o m p o s i t io n w e r e a s s u m e d to p e r s i s t to 1975 . T h us f o r m a n y o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s , p a r t i c u l a r l y th o s e o f s m a l l s i z e , the in i t i a l p r o je c t io n a co n t in u a t io n o f p a s t t r e n d s w a s a c c e p t e d . On the o th e r h an d , p r o j e c t i o n s of r a t i o s o f l a r g e s i z e a r e o f te n m o d i f i c a t io n s o f p a s t t r e n d s b a s e d on an a n a l y s i s o f u n d e r ly in g f a c t o r s . A s an i n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e in the p r o p o r t i o n a t e e m p lo y m e n t f o r one o c c u p a t io n in a p a r t i c u l a r in d u s t r y r e q u i r e s o f f s e t t in g c h a n g e s in o th e r o c c u p a t io n s in the in d u s t r y , few of the f in a l o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s w hich a r e a s l a r g e a s 1 p e r c e n t , a r e e x a c t e x t e n s io n s o f p a s t t r e n d s e x c e p t by c h a n c e .

I n t e r p r e t a t io n o f the O c c u p a t io n a l R a t i o s

T he in d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l r a t i o s f o r 1975 a r e in ten d ed to r e f l e c t the s k i l l p a t t e r n s that w i l l be r e q u i r e d by the te c h n o lo g y o f p r o d u c tion in e a c h i n d u s t r y in 1975. In d e v e lo p in g the o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e f o r e a c h in d u s t r y , no s p e c i f i c c o n s i d e r a t i o n w a s g iv e n to the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f w o r k e r s who h a v e the r e q u i r e d s k i l l s . Y e t , m a n y of the in d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l r a t i o s f o r 1975 ( p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e of s m a l l s i z e ) a r e an e x te n s io n o f the c h a n g e s in r a t io w hich w e r e found f o r 194765. R a t i o s o f th is ty p e e m b o d y a co n t in u a t io n o f u n id e n t i f ie d p a s t a d ju s t m e n t s to s h o r t a g e s (o r i n c r e a s i n g r e l a t i v e c o s t s ) f o r s o m e o f the o c c u p a t io n s .

14 See Occupational Employment Statistics, Sources a n d D ata, U. S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1966, for a discussion of available occupational employment data.


10

If the o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s o f th i s r e p o r t a r e m u l t i p l i e d by e s t i m a t e s of to t a l e m p l o y m e n t in e a c h in d u s t r y in 1975 , they y ie ld the o c c u p a t io n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s im p l ie d by a p a r t i c u l a r m i x o f in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t e s t i m a t e s . H o w e v e r , the o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s w e r e d e v e lo p e d in r e l a t i o n to p a r t i c u l a r l e v e l s o f i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t th o s e g iv e n in ap p e n d ix B . E s t i m a t e s o f i n d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t w hich d i f f e r a p p r e c i a b l y f r o m th o s e show n in a p p e n d ix B , m a y im p ly a d i f f e r e n c e in s c a l e o f o p e r a t i o n s o r m o d i f i c a t io n o f p r o d u c t io n m e th o d s and t h e r e f o r e a ch a n g e in the o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e r e q u i r e d by the in d u s t r y .

T he i n d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l p a t t e r n s o f th is r e p o r t r e p r e s e n t n a t io n a l a v e r a g e s o f the o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e s of in d iv id u a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t s in e a c h in d u s t r y . The c u r r e n t and h i s t o r i c a l d a t a and a l s o the p r o j e c t e d o c c u p a t i o n a l r a t i o s t h e r e f o r e r e f l e c t d a ta f o r e s t a b l i s h m e n t s w hich a r e o b s o l e s c e n t a s w e l l a s f o r th o s e w hich a r e a d v a n c e d t e c h n o lo g ic a l ly . T h ey in c lu d e d a t a f o r both l a r g e and s m a l l e s t a b l i s h m e n t s and f o r th o s e w hich p r o d u c e a n u m b e r o f p r o d u c t s , s o m e of w hich m a y be o u t s i d e the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a s s i g n e d to the p lan t on the b a s i s o f the m a j o r p o r t io n o f i t s output. T h e u s e f u l n e s s o f n a t io n a l in d u s t r y - o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s f o r a n a l y s i s o f o c c u p a t io n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s in su b n a t io n a l a r e a s , su c h a s S t a t e s , d e p e n d s on the s i m i l a r i t y b e tw e e n the S t a t e and the N a t io n in te c h n o lo g y , s i z e o f e s t a b l i s h m e n t s , and the p r o d u c t m i x fo r the i n d u s t r i e s found in the S t a te . O b v io u s ly , the o c c u p a t io n a l p a t t e r n f o r an e n t i r e U. S. in d u s t r y m a y be in a d e q u a te fo r e s t i m a t in g o c c u p a t io n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r a s in g le p la n t in the U nited S t a t e s o r a b r o a d .

I n te r p o la t io n o f the o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s b e tw e e n I9 6 0 and 1975 sh o u ld be done with cau t io n . F o r e x a m p l e , in the d u r a b l e g o o d s m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s a co n tin u a t io n o f the l o n g - t e r m d e c l in e in the p r o p o r t i o n a t e e m p lo y m e n t of p r o d u c t io n w o r k e r s and e s p e c i a l l y of l a b o r e r s and o p e r a t i v e s , su c h a s a s s e m b l e r s and m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , w a s p r o j e c t e d . H o w e v e r , in the h igh g ro w th p e r io d o f 196 3 66, p r o p o r t i o n a t e e m p lo y m e n t of p r o d u c t io n w o r k e r s i n c r e a s e d and w a s about the s a m e l e v e l in 1966 a s in I9 6 0 . A s i m p l e i n t e r p o la t io n o f the I9 6 0 and 1975 r a t i o s w ould in d ic a te r a t i o s b e lo w t h o s e a c t u a l l y p r e v a i l i n g in 1966 f o r the m e n t io n e d o c c u p a t io n s .

A l t h o u g h the o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s a r e show n to a h u n d red th o f a p e r c e n t , th i s i s done fo r p r a c t i c a l r e a s o n s and not in any s e n s e a s an in d ic a t io n o f p r e c i s i o n . M an y

o c c u p a t io n s a r e so w id e ly d i s p e r s e d am o n g i n d u s t r i e s th at on ly a f r a c t i o n o f 1 p e r c e n t i s found in m a n y i n d u s t r i e s , and c h a n g e s can be r e f l e c t e d on ly by go in g to the f i n e r l e v e l o f d e t a i l .

T h e p r o j e c t i o n s o f i n d u s t r y - o c c u p a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s th at r e s u l t f r o m the a n a l y s i s d e s c r i b e d in th is r e p o r t m u s t b e c o n s i d e r e d t e n ta t iv e and s u b je c t to r e v i s i o n . R e l i a b l e h i s t o r i c a l d a t a on the d e t a i l e d o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e o f i n d u s t r i e s a r e s c a n t y . M uch i n f o r m a t i o n on the o c c u p a t io n a l i m p a c t o f t e c h n o lo g i c a l c h a n g e , sh i f t in g p r o d u c t m i x , and s h o r t su p p ly f o r s o m e o c c u p a t io n s , i s non- q u a n t i ta t iv e o r e s t i m a t e d in v e r y b r o a d r a n g e s . T h e s e f a c t o r s l im i t the a b i l i ty to e v a lu a t e the c a u s e s o f the c h a n g e s of the p a s t . An a d d i t io n a l d im e n s io n o f u n c e r ta in ty i s ad d ed w hen the s c a n t y d a t a m u s t b e u s e d a s a fo u n d a t io n f o r p r o j e c t i o n s . In p r e p a r i n g s t u d ie s f o r a s e t o f i n d u s t r i e s w hich c o m p r i s e a l l e c o n o m ic a c t i v i t y , p r o j e c t i o n s o f o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e w e r e m a d e f o r s o m e i n d u s t r i e s b a s e d on d a t a f r o m the 1950 and I9 6 0 c e n s u s e s , ev e n though t h e r e w a s l i t t le i n f o r m a t io n f r o m o th e r s o u r c e s w hich h e lp e d to e x p la in the t r e n d s show n by the c e n s u s . If in f o r m a t i o n w a s not found w hich e i t h e r v a l i d a te d o r p r o v i d e d a b a s i s f o r m o d ify in g t r e n d s , the t r e n d w a s g e n e r a l l y e x t e n d e d . H o w e v e r , l a r g e c h a n g e s in o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o b e tw e e n 1950 and I9 6 0 w hich co u ld not be e x p la in e d w e r e m o d i f i e d in the p r o j e c t i o n s .

T he B u r e a u i s lau n ch in g a p r o g r a m to c o l l e c t i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m e m p l o y e r s on the o c c u p a t io n a l s t r u c t u r e o f d e t a i l e d i n d u s t r i e s . T he new d a t a , t o g e t h e r with g r e a t e r e x p e r i e n c e and s o p h i s t i c a t i o n on the p a r t of p e r s o n s w o rk in g with the d a t a , sh o u ld i m p r o v e fu tu r e p r o j e c t i o n s .

P r o c e d u r e s f o r P r o j e c t i o n o f O c c u p a t io n a l R e q u i r e m e n t s

The o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s o f th i s r e p o r t h a v e b e e n a p p l i e d to a s e t o f in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t p r o j e c t i o n s d e v e lo p e d a s d e s c r i b e d in the p a r a g r a p h s w hich fo l lo w . T h i s w a s done p r i m a r i l y f o r i l l u s t r a t i v e p u r p o s e s and the o c c u p a t io n a l r a t i o s c a n be u s e d with o th e r s e t s of in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t p r o j e c t i o n s fo r 1975 s u b je c t to the q u a l i f i c a t io n s w hich h a v e b e e n in d ic a te d and o th e r q u a l i f i c a t io n s w hich m a y a p p ly in the c i r c u m s t a n c e s of a p a r t i c u l a r s tu d y . T he i l l u s t r a t i v e p r o j e c t i o n s d epe n d on o th e r w o rk o f the B L S in c lu d in g p r o j e c t io n s o f the l a b o r f o r c e , e s t i m a t e s of the fu tu re d i s t r i b u t i o n of e m p lo y m e n t a m o n g i n d u s t r i e s ,


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a g r e a t d e a l of w o rk on the e m p lo y m e n t o u t look f o r in d iv id u a l o c c u p a t i o n s , and s t u d ie s of p r o d u c t iv i t y and t e c h n o l o g i c a l ch an ge fo r p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r i e s and p r o c e s s e s .

To e s t a b l i s h the b o u n d a r ie s f o r the e m p lo y m e n t p r o j e c t i o n s , t w o co n d it io n s w e r e s p e c i f i e d : An u n e m p lo y m e n t r a t e o f 3 p e r cen t and A r m e d F o r c e s o f 2. 7 m i l l i o n m e n ab o u t the s a m e l e v e l a s in the p e r i o d b e f o r e the V ie tn a m bu ildup o f 196566. T he s p e c i f ie d s i z e o f the A r m e d F o r c e s i s r e l a t e d to an a s s u m p t i o n th at in t e r n a t io n a l t e n s i o n s w ill p e r s i s t th ro u gh 1975 but that t h e r e w il l be no w a r and th at n a t io n a l s e c u r i t y e x p e n d i t u r e s w i l l be ab ou t the l e v e l of 1964 . O b v io u s ly any m a j o r d e p a r t u r e f r o m the a s s u m e d co ld w a r s i t u a t io n w ould g r e a t l y a f f e c t the c o m p o s i t io n o f the d e m a n d f o r g o o d s and s e r v i c e s a n d t h e o c c u p a t io n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f the e c o n o m y .

L a b o r F o r c e and T o t a l E m p l o y m e n t . P r o je c t io n of the l a b o r f o r c e w a s b a s e d on an e x a m in a t io n o f the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the p o p u la t io n 14 y e a r s of a g e and o l d e r by a g e - s e x g ro u p in the p r o j e c t i o n y e a r , and a n a l y s i s of the l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e f o r e a c h a g e - s e x g r o u p . 15 T o t a l e m p lo y m e n t w a s d e r iv e d by a p p ly in g a 3 - p e r c e n t u n e m p lo y m e n t r a t e to the p r o j e c t e d l a b o r f o r c e . The 3- p e r c e n t r a t e r e s u l t s in a s o m e w h a t l a r g e r l a b o r f o r c e , a s w e l l a s h ig h e r e m p lo y m e n t than a 4 - o r 5 - p e r c e n t u n e m p lo y m e n t r a t e , b e c a u s e m o r e p e r s o n s a r e e n c o u r a g e d to e n te r the l a b o r f o r c e when j o b s a r e r e l a t i v e l y e a s y to find.

G r o s s N a t io n a l P r o d u c t . G r o s s n a t io n a l p r o d u c t (GNP) was estimated to reach $970 b i l l io n (in I9 6 0 p r i c e s ) by 1975 b a s e d on p r o j e c t i o n s of to t a l e m p lo y m e n t , a v e r a g e an n u al h o u r s o f w o rk , and co n t in u a t io n o f the p o s t w a r r a t e of p r o d u c t iv i t y im p r o v e m e n t . T h is f i g u r e i s an i n c r e a s e o f ab o u t 90 p e r c e n t fo r the 15 y e a r s .

In d u s t r y E m p l o y m e n t . I n d u s t r y e m p l o y m e n t e s t i m a t e s w e r e d e v e lo p e d to b e c o n s i s t ent with the p r o j e c t e d t o t a l f o r the e m p lo y e d

l a b o r f o r c e . A s in the b a s e p e r i o d t a b le f o r I 9 6 0 , the to t a l f o r e a c h in d u s t r y in c lu d e s a l lc l a s s e s o f w o r k e r s --- the s e l f - e m p l o y e d andu n paid f a m i l y w o r k e r s , a s w e l l a s the g r e a t b u lk of e m p lo y m e n t th o s e who w o r k f o r w a g e s and s a l a r i e s . G o v e r n m e n t w o r k e r s in a c t i v i t i e s s i m i l a r to t h o se in the p r i v a t e e c o n o m y a r e a l s o in c lu d e d , and s e c o n d a r y j o b s o f w o r k e r s who h av e two j o b s o r m o r e a r e e x c lu d e d .

T he e s t i m a t e s o f to t a l e m p lo y m e n t i n e a c h in d u s t r y in 1975 depe n d on co m b in in g the r e s u l t s o f t h r e e a p p r o a c h e s to p r o j e c t i n g in d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t . In o n e , G N P i s d i s t r ib u te d to f in a l d e m a n d s e c t o r s . T h e output o f e a c h in d u s t r y then i s d e t e r m in e d th ro u gh in p u t-o u tp u t r e l a t i o n s w hich sh