bldg. 370, 450 serra mall stanford university stanford, ca 94305 prepared for... the way forward...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Poverty Report Card
David B. Grusky Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
Bldg. 370, 450 Serra MallStanford UniversityStanford, CA 94305
prepared for ...The Way Forward
Innovating Together to Cut PovertyJune 5, 2013
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Agenda
The case for monitoring poverty and inequality … frequently
Introduce the Report Card
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Road Map goals
Reducing poverty through targeted interventions
Evaluating the effectiveness of targeted interventions
Monitoring progress and changing the conversation about poverty
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The case for monitoring
The structure of poverty changes (sometimes quickly)
Getting poverty in the news … often
Demonstrating that policies have effects
Allows for real-time response
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Poverty rate is at or near highest level in last half century for children and non-elderly adults
Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, and Erin Cumberworth, Recession Trends (www.recessiontrends.org),Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
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Young adults have borne brunt of takeoff in poverty
Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, and Erin Cumberworth, Recession Trends (www.recessiontrends.org),Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
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Rising deep poverty (i.e., less than $2/day in 2011 dollars)
Source: “Rising Extreme Poverty in the United States and the Response of Federal Means-Tested Transfer Programs,” Luke Shaefer and Kathy Edin
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Declining percent of poor living in families with at least one worker
Absolute deterioration in employment situation of poor
Predates recession
Source: Recession Trends initiative (www.recessiontrends.org, Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, Erin Cumberworth)
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Rise in poverty most prominent in high-poverty metropolitan areas
Poverty increases most in high poverty metropolitan areas
Source: Recession Trends initiative (www.recessiontrends.org, Robert Sampson and Ann Owens)
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Keeping it in the news
Even if poverty were unchanging we need to keep talking about it
Create regularized events that become news in and of themselves
The planQuarterly measurementAnnual report card
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Quarterly measurement
Children living in nonworking poverty families
Individuals over age 15 with family incomes below SPM threshold
20082007 2009 2010 2011 2012
Black
Hispanic
White
Asian
Tale of two measuresUnemployment measures: Once a monthPoverty measures: Once a year (and outdated at moment of release)
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Policy does have effect
Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, and Erin Cumberworth, Recession Trends (www.recessiontrends.org),Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
Not some complicated puzzle (like finding cure for cancer)
We know what to do
And it’s been done
• In the U.K.
• Even here
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Counterfactuals
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA): Would it have reduced poverty had it been applied in 2008?
Answer: By 1.3 points (via tax credit expansions, additional payments to Social Security recipients, SNAP benefit increases)
An ongoing macroeconomic response (as with unemploy- ment)?
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The Report Card event
A national day of reckoning … a national scandal and shared problem
Comparisons
• Over time
• Across states and counties
The power of grading
Tie-ins
• Pathways Magazine
• Poverty and inequality briefs (see www.recessiontrends.org)
Quick response teams
Challenges
• Sample size
• Bay Area heterogenity
• Reconciling with Road Map
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Qualitative measurement of poverty
Qualitative studies of poverty have been immensely important in uncovering experience of poverty
One-shot tradition of qualitative analysis makes monitoring trend impossible
Solution: Qualitative trend measurement
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Measuring trends in social mobility
President Obama vowed to “build new ladders of opportunity into the middle class” in his 2013 address
Ways to move forward1. Administrative data (i.e., IRS)2. Adding intergenerational module to existing survey (e.g., ACS ,CPS, SIPP)
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Developing local and regional poverty measures
The SPM revolution in poverty measurement
But we need to develop local SPM measures
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A standardized, regularized protocol for monitoring labor market discrimination
The rise of experiments: Laboratory, resume, and audit studies of labor market discrim- ination have revolutionized field
But limited to one-shot studies
Need standardized protocol administered at regular intervals• Which types of discrimination are
most prominent? Race, gender, motherhood status, poverty status, criminal record, sexual orientation, credit record• Which types are becoming stronger
or weaker?
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An engaged ivory tower
Major social problem of our time
Engaged ivory tower
Powerful union of science and action … a new smart war on poverty