blair corporation (bl) wednesday october 4, 2006
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Blair Corporation
• Index: AMEX• Sector: Services• Industry: Catalog and Mail Order Consumer
Products • Employees: 1,900• Senior Management: 10 members• Board of Directors: 9 members
Company Overview• Product categories
– Womenswear• Coordinates, dresses, tops, pants, skirts, lingerie,
sportswear, suits, jackets, outerwear and shoes
– Menswear• Suits, shirts, outerwear, active wear, slacks, shoes,
and accessories
– Home merchandise• Bedspread ensembles, draperies, furniture covers,
area rugs, bath accessories, kitchenware, gifts, collectibles and personal care items
Company Overview
• Markets/Sells product(s)– Direct mail
• 81% of total sales
– E-Commerce: launched in 2000 • 18% of total sales
– Three Retail Stores• 1% of total sales• Two in Pennsylvania• One in Delaware
Company Overview
• Targets customers in low to moderate income range – $40,000-$75,000 annual income
• Offers exclusive Blair credit card• Suppliers outside United States account for
roughly 32% of company’s merchandise (expanding)
• Properties consist of HQ, 2 distribution centers, 4 warehouses – all located in PA. 4 'call centers'.
Company Overview2005 Sales B reakdow n
8 5 %
1 5 %
M e n's a nd W o me n's W e a r
Ho us e ho ld P ro duc ts
Note: Product Mix largely unchanged over past 5 years
Major Risks to Business• Significant increases in the costs associated with its direct mail
business could negatively affect results of operations
• Consumer concerns about purchasing items via the Internet as well as external or internal infrastructure system failures could negatively impact e-commerce sales and costs
• The Company’s increasing reliance on direct sourcing from foreign vendors may negatively impact the cost to source and deliver merchandise
• New management of Blair credit operations may impose more strict credit guidelines, which may have a negative impact on sales.
Competitors
• Competition consists of discount retailers and other retail catalog businesses
• Major competitive advantage: Discounted prices, and competitive credit program.
Senior Management
• John E. Zawacki, President and CEO– 1971 graduate of Thiel College, Greenville,
PA – Began employment with Blair Corporation in
1972: • Assistant Vice President of Womenswear 1977-
1988• Vice President of Womenswear 1988-1999• President and CEO 1999-Present
Senior Management (cont.)
• Larry J. Pitorak, of Tatum Partners, interim Chief Financial Officer (CFO) – 1969 graduate of Thiel College, Greenville, PA– 1974 graduate of Cleveland State University Marshall– College of Law– CPA; Tatum Partner since 2002– Previous employment:
• 28 years with The Sherwin-Williams Company, Cleveland, Ohio includes:
• Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President-Finance and Treasurer 1991-2001
Senior Management (cont.)
• David N. Elliott, Senior Vice President, Merchandising and Design– 1976 graduate of the University of Toronto– 1978 graduate of Harvard Graduate School of
Business (MBA)– Began employment with Blair Corporation in 2004– Previous employment:
• 9 years with Petals, In., Tarrytown, NY:– Executive Vice President, Merchandising and Product
Development 1994-2003• Ross Simons, Cranston, RI:
– Vice President and General Merchandising Manager 2003-2004
High Level Financial Information
• Stock Price: $25.80• P/E: 5.72• EPS: 4.51• Current Ratio: 2.25• Quick Ratio: 0.89• ROE: 6.0%• ROA: 4.8%• Total Liabilities as % of Equity: 52.8%• 2005 Year End Data
– Net Sales: $456 mln– Net Income: $31.5 mln
Investment PROS
• Strong Liquidity Position– 5 yr avg Quick Ratio of 2.19– 2005 Quick ratio is 0.88 – add $75mln available credit
for ratio of 2.07
• Very Little Debt– Virtually no Long Term (LT) Debt– 2005 Debt/Equity (DE) is 53% -- historically below 35%
Investment PROS
• Low capital investment requirements
• Growth of international sourcing may further reduce future costs
• “Focusing on Core Business”– Shed Alleghney Wholesale business / Crossing Pointe– Sold receivables for $28mln gain
• Simple/Predictable business
Investment CONS
• Loss of $30 mln per year revenue stream from credit programs (valuation effect)
• Increasing costs – advertising/paper/ink
• Sales declined at 5 yr CAGR of 5%
• $61.4 mln in returns in 2005 – 14% of net sales
Investment CONS
• Blair rejected $297mln ($36/share) offer to buy the business.– Instead bought back over 50% of shares outstanding
for $42/share – shares subsequently lost half their value
– Investor group entered “standstill” agreement
Investment CONS
ValuationA ssum pt ions D e p r e c i a t i o n 9 . 0N e t S a l e s G r o w t h - 6 % C a p e x 9O t h e r R e v e n u e s 3 D iscount R ate 10%C O G S M a r g i n 4 7 . 2 %S G & A M a r g i n 2 3 . 1 %A d v e r t i s i n g M a r g i n 2 6 . 7 %T a x R a t e 3 8 . 0 0 %
F ree C ash F low 9.4 8.9 8.4 8.0 7.6
D i s c o u n t e d C a s h F l o w 8 . 5 7 . 3 6 . 3 5 . 5 4 . 7 7 6 . 3
D C F V alue 108.7
C u r r e n t M a r k e t V a l u e 1 0 0 % D iscount 8.7%
Major Risks to Valuation
• Sales Growth– Benefits from advertising– Negative effect of new credit program
• Cost Margins– Cost of paper/ink– Effectiveness of advertising– Cost benefits from sale of receivables