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BC and Climate Change at the Third Pole

Danielle Meitiv

February 17, 2010

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 2

rr o e warm ng x as er an g o a averageo e warm ng x as er an g o a average

ax mum empera ures nNepal rising faster than region. Temperature increase greater

w a u e. Winter temperature did not gobelow 0 C in 2008-2009.

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 3

ma ayan g ac ers =ma ayan g ac ers = -- mass a ancemass a ance

The graph shows all publishedma aya- ara oram

measurements; they are morenegative after 1995 than before.The map shows where the

measurement sites are.

Mass balance varies greatly year

References: Kargel, Fujita

.Boxes suggest estimated

uncertainty.

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 4

More than 80% of laciers in Western China areMore than 80% of laciers in Western China areretreating; areal decrease = 4.5% in 50 yearsretreating; areal decrease = 4.5% in 50 years

Reference:Li, 2008

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 5

ac a e av or s not un orm across t e reg onac a e av or s not un orm across t e reg on

1. Afghanistan relatively stable or

2. NW Himalayas & Karakoram verycomplex, includessur in /advancin stable andretreating glaciers

3. India, SW Tibet, W Nepal mainlystagnating, retreating with slowerperiods of in 20th & 21st

4. Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, SE Tibetrapid disintegration, many lake

, . .5 Central Tibetan glaciers are

relatively stable, while surroundingran es Qilian KunlanShan

Greater Himalayan Range can be roughly divided into 4'zones' based on differences in air currents, precipitation,glacier types, and sensitivity to warming.

TienShan) are experiencing

extensive mass loss.Reference: Kargel; Li, 2008

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 6

Winter precipitation focused overthe Karakoram and western Himalaya

Summer monsoon precipitation focusedover the eastern and Central Himalaya

Precipitation 2-5X on the south

Reference: Kargel

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 7

The monsoon is the foundation of the climateThe monsoon is the foundation of the climatesystemsystem and economyand economy in this region.in this region.

Reference: Xu, 2009

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 8

rdrd

Winter haze hugs the southern face of the Himalayas, causing health problems and warmingthe atmosphere. December 2, 2009. NASA

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 9

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 10

Numerous studies predict that anthropogenicNumerous studies predict that anthropogenicaerosols will impact Indian summer monsoonaerosols will impact Indian summer monsoon

Ramanathan's solar-dimming (SDM) theory

focuses on Northern IndianOcean - predicts monsoonw wea en.

Lau's elevated heat pump

(EHP) focuses on N Indiaan ma ayan oo s -predicts monsoon willintensify and start earlier.

enhances early monsoonrainfall (increases flooding),

later monsoon (shorter, more

droughts).Reference: Chung, Ramanathan, Kim, Podgorny, 2005Reference: Chung, Ramanathan, Kim, Podgorny, 2005References: Ramanathan,Chung, Lau, Gautam

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 11

BC + dust aerosols enhance preBC + dust aerosols enhance pre--monsoon warming south of the Himalayasmonsoon warming south of the Himalayas

Reference: Gautam, 2009

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 12

Modeling studies predict thatimpact of BC on climate may begreatest at mid- low-latitudes inAsia because of BC-snow forcing.

Forcing greatest in spring, during

melt season.

concentration positivefeedback.

During some spring months, BC-snow forcing exceeds 10 W m-2over parts of E China and 20 W

m-2 over the Tibetan Plateau.

Flanner, 2009

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 13

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 14

Xu, 2006

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 15

BC and OC concentrationsfrom Zuoquipu glacier in SWTibet.

The data indicate an

increasing Asian source sincethe 1990s, and especially inthe last decade.

Represents an increase of

30% in BC and OC from 1990-2003. Reference: Xu, 2009

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 16

r : a e o e c encer : a e o e c ence

The majority of glaciers are retreating, although behaviouris not uniform across region reflects changing monsoon.

Atmospheric BC warms the atmosphere & impacts themonsoon shifting timing and intensity of rainfall, possible

weakening it overall.

Concentrations of BC in snow reflect increasing humanactivity could have significant impacts on albedo,meltin .

This region is grossly under-monitored, although 20% ofthe world's population lives here.

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 17

r : a e o e o csr : a e o e o cs

vulnerable but are wary of Western data andclaims.

China has invested heavily in cryosphericresearch and concludes glaciers are melting.India has conducted less research and is wary of

-initiatives but historical tension over the bordermakes this challenging.

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BC and Climate Change at the Third pole | Slide 18