7September 2017

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential

AdvancedIntelligence&Research onSolarPV

byGaëtanMasson,Director,BecquerelInstitute

BECQUERELINSTITUTE

• Est.2014inBrussels• Researchoriented Instituteandconsultingcompany forSolarPVTechnologies.

• GlobalPVMarket Analysis includingcompetitiveness andeconomics.

• Industry analysis together with quality &reliability.

• Integration into electricity systems (grids andmarkets).

• In-houseexperts/Globalnetworkofexpertsandstakeholders

• PVMarket Alliance partner

COP21:BELGIUMCANBEQUITECOMPLEX

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Target costs for BIPV

The PV market & the BIPV market

Market Potential in Europe for BIPV

Why isn’t it working already now?

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Today’s agendaBIPV market and competitiveness

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential

FROM1.1to76GWin12years ?Andmore?

76GW5%

PVMarket Alliance2017

303GW

BIPVmarket (sourceDemForBIPV)

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 6

Bestcasearound 3GWin2016Or4% oftheglobalPVmarket.PartofrealBIPVcomponents?PartofarchitecturalBIPV?Growth rateuncertain unless driversareunderstood.

• Phase-out from subsidised schemes forPV(Feed-in-Tariffs,GreenCertificatesandNet-metering)

è Consequently,businessmodels based onself-consumption aredeveloping.

• Competitiveness under SCmeasured astheability toproduce electricity,sell it (orconsumeit locally)with revenuescompensating (with aprofit)theCAPEXandOPEXcosts during thelifetime oftheplant:

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 7

Current situation of European marketsWe currently are in a transitional period

CAPEXofPVSystem

Savings onelectricity

bills

Salesofexcess

electricity< +

During PV systems’ lifetime (25 years)

OPEXofPVSystem+

• StandardBAPVcompetitivenesshasbeenmeasuredwithcurrentlowelectricitymarketpricesand

showsthata50%self-consumptionsolutioncouldbecompetitive inallmarketsconsidered.

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 8

Competitiveness of BAPV solutionsDetailed costs of a usual BAPV system

TotalCAPEX(foracommercialsystem)=0,95€/Wp

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 9

Competitiveness of BIPV solutionsDrawing a parallel with BAPV – the classical approach

Target cost of BIPV systems ≤ MAX(BAPV[Module+DC Cabling+Mounting+Installation+Margin]) + Roofing material + Inverter

Only ifincluded intheBIPV« module »

• The threshold for competitiveness for a commercial BIPV roof solution has been calculated aswell: the system price needed to reach competitiveness in 2017 has been calculated assumingmodule efficiency of 16% and roofingmaterial cost from 15€ to 100€/m²

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 10

Competitiveness of BIPV solutionsEvaluating the target cost in case of BIPV for a commercial roof

Target cost BAPV(Module+DC cabling+…) in 2017 Total target cost (i.e. with roofing material)

Belgium/Luxemburg 0,72 €/Wp 0,82 €/Wp > 1,34 €/Wp

France 0,63 €/Wp (North) – 1,18 €/Wp (South) 0,73-1,28 €/Wp > 1,35 – 1,9 €/Wp

Germany 1,10 €/Wp (North) – 1,18 €/Wp (South) 1,20-1,28 €/Wp > 1,82 – 1,9 €/Wp

Italy 1,69 €/Wp (North) – 2,11 €/Wp (South) 1,79-2,21 €/Wp > 2,41 – 2,83 €/Wp

Netherlands 0,76 €/Wp 0,86 €/Wp > 1,48 €/Wp

No inverter included in BIPV system – Taking into account a self-consumption ratio of 50%

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 11

Competitiveness of BIPV solutionsEvaluating the target cost in case of BIPV for a industrial roof

• In case of an Industrial system. Assumptions are the same as on the previous slide (except roofingmaterial estimated at 15€/m2)

No inverter included in BIPV system – Taking into account a self-consumption ratio of 75%

Target cost BAPV(Module+DC cabling+…) in 2017 Total target cost (i.e. with roofing material)

Belgium/Luxemburg 0,80 €/Wp 0,92 €/Wp

France 0,72 €/Wp (North) – 1,23 €/Wp (South) 0,83-1,34 €/Wp

Germany 1,31 €/Wp (North) – 1,48 €/Wp (South) 1,43-1,60 €/Wp

Italy 1,48 €/Wp (North) – 1,99 €/Wp (South) 1,60-2,10 €/Wp

Netherlands 0,72 €/Wp 0,83 €/Wp

• Metrics in €/Wp are useful to compare BIPV costs with BAPV costs, so are classical LCOEcalculation in €/kWh

• BUT… BIPV has more functions than just generating power, hence such metric is incomplete(thermal isolation, water proofing,…)

• BIPV elements are building elements before being PV elements: €/m² are probably moresuited

• Main barriers:• Lack of awareness & resistance to change within the building sector• Lack of cooperation between stakeholders: PV and Construction/Building sectors do not communicate• Unadapted regulation• Difficulty to identify required standards and certifications: PV and Building

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 12

Competitiveness of BIPV solutionsA special case of PV requiring a special assessment

SUPPLY-SIDEAPPROACH:

• If all suitable facade and roof areas of residential andnon-residential buildings were covered with BIPVelements.

• « Suitable » takes into account:• Architectural suitability (considering shading areas, average

space occupied by other devices…)• Solar suitability: only areas where ≥80% of the maximum

solar yield that can be reached at this specific location, i.e. atoptimum tilt and azimuth

• But it is a « best case scenario »: many constraints mustbe overcome.

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Market Potential of BIPV in Europe Difficult question – answer depends of the approach

DEMAND-SIDEAPPROACH:

• Considering the power demand of residential and non-residential buildings and what would be the BIPVcapacity required to exclusively cover this demand.

• Equal repartition between facade and roof BIPV, but atdifferent yields of course.

• This scenario is based on the idea that BIPV producedpower should be self-consumed on site consideringtoday’s regulatory uncertainty and unadequacy.

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 14

Market Potential of BIPV in Europe Difficult question – answer depends of the approach

39

40

104

111

208

26

27

69

74

139

0 50 100 150 200 250

Netherlands

Belgium

Italy

France

Germany

GWp

LowScenario HighScenario

SUPPLY-SIDEAPPROACH:

AdelELGAMMAL,PhilippeMACÉetal.,« Technical EvaluationofBIPVpowergeneration potential inEU-28 »,32ndEUPVSEC,Munich,June2016

DEMAND-SIDEAPPROACH:

63

90

435

442

574

25

42

158

168

300

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Belgium

Netherlands

Germany

France

Italy

GWp

LowScenario HighScenario

BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential 15

38.1%

23.8%

31.3%

40.3%

29.7%

Belgium France Germany Italy Netherlands

Potential share ofBIPVpowergeneration intotalpowerdemand

Market Potential of BIPV in Europe BIPV has the potential to generate

AdelELGAMMAL,PhilippeMACÉetal.,« Technical EvaluationofBIPVpowergeneration potential inEU-28 »,32ndEUPVSEC,Munich,June2016

16BIPVCompetitivenessandMarketPotential

ConclusionsThe chicken and the egg

• In theory competitiveness could be possible already today in some segments.

• BIPV also suffers from the difficult situation of PV in Europe. Outisde of Europe,distributed PV markets are growing again after years of stagnation. Perspectives?

• BIPV is often seen as « architectural ». By definition « tailor-made ».

• Business models are significantly more complex, especially financing (mortage?Long term loans?) and insurance (who will cover what? Maintenance? Spareparts?) including guarantees (who will pay in case of late defect?)

• PV and BIPV business models shouldn’t be mixed while there is a part in common.

• Lack of products to motivate buyers (Tesla? Not the first but the most visible)

• Out of solve the equation? Public policies targeting the financial and insuranceaspects. R&D with market access. Call for tenders with technology requirements forBIPV. Develop easy-BIPV?

Utility-scale TRENDS

- <3USDcents/kWhis now feasible.- Reducing costs is still thechallenge

- Adhocmodules- Bifacialmodules- Longerlifetime (with repowering)- …

- Movable PVsystems (forshorterprojects)

- From fields to…waterà floatting PVsystems

_IPV

- PVinthebuilt environment >ease toself-consumelocally PVelectricity >competitive advantage

- Buildings- BAPV+BIPV- Solving questionsof:financing,insurance,

maintenance(spare parts),standardization…>adhocbusinessmodels which arenotdeveloped yet

- Rethink thenotionsofroofs/façades/buildingelements >evolving buildings

- Materials:glass,butalso metal,aesthetical aspects?- Massmanufacturing ofBIPVis acentralchallenge

- Urbanfurniture with PV- PVroads:highpotential,highprices

AutomotivePV

- Electrificationofvehicules is ongoing (slowly butgrowing).91000EVs sold inEuropeinH1.Chinafirstworldmarket.

- Different uses- Powerauxiliary equipment incars(reduce fuel

consumption orincrease range)- RechargeEVs’batteries(30km/day?)

- Potential- 60,000,000carsproduced every year- 0,5to1kWp percar- 30to60GWofPV

- Long-term reliability is less important,price is notanissueneither >>possiblefast development.

Integratedenergy approach

PVasapartofanintegratedapproach:- Reshaping energy useinbuildings

- Storage(energy (heat,cold)andelectricity)

- EVasDSM,EVasstorage- Virtualnet-metering- >>innovative businessmodelsandcommercialoffers

PVpowersource

Energymanagementinbuilding+storage

(En)

External uses:export+EV+storage (El)

Next step inevolution

CONTACT

GaëtanMasson,Directorg.masson@becquerelinstitute.org

orVisit usatwww.becquerelinstitute.org