biosecurity vulnerability and strategy evaluation continued
Post on 22-Dec-2015
214 views
TRANSCRIPT
Biosecurity
Vulnerability and Strategy evaluationContinued
Total WelfareTotal Welfare for CB analysis
TSW=CS+PS
Demand Supply
P*
Q
P2
P1
Q*
E
PS
CS
Appraisal Based on Changes in Net Income
• Examining situations where economic agents are operating with varying biosecurity attributes where all other factors either do not vary or can be controlled
• Estimating a relationship between net income and the biosecurity attribute
• Calculating the change in net income induced by the change in biosecurity attributes
• Utilizing quantitative relationship between biosecurity change and net income .
Assumes prices don’t change so demand is perfectly elastic
Appraisal Based on Changes in Net Income
Assumes prices don’t change so demand is perfectly elastic
Processing
Markets
Feed Mixing
Other Resources
AUM Grazing
Labor
Pasture Land
Natl. Inputs
Forestland
Water
Livestock Production
CropProduction
Export
DomesticDemand
Import
Biofuel/GHGDemand
ForestProduction
Cropland
Initial Accomplishments (V)Applying Sector modeling
Land
Water
Labor
Grazing
Nat Inputs
Aggregate Supply and Demand
Feed Demand
Processing Demand
Processing Supply
Sector Model Economic Structure
Domestic Demand
Export Demand
Import Supply
Household Demand
Model Economic Structure
Primary CommoditiesCotton Corn Soybeans SorghumSOFT HRWW DURW HRSWRice Oats Barley PotatoesSilage Hay Alfalfa SugarcaneSugarbeet Tomatofrsh Tomatoproc Orangefrsh Orangeproc Grpfrtfrsh Grpfrtproc SwitchGras HybrPoplar WillowCornres SorgRes RiceRes WheatResOatsRes BarleyRes
Sheep CowCalf BeefFeed DairyHogFarrow FeedPig PigFinish OthLvstkStockSCav StockHCav StockSYea StockHYeaVealCalf Turkeys Broilers EggsBeefcows BioManure
Secondary Commodities
OrangeJuic GrpfrtJuic SoybeanMeal SoybeanOilHFCS Beverages Confection BakingCanning RefSugar GlutenMeal GlutenFeedDDG CornStarch CornOil CornSyrupDextrose FrozenPot DriedPot ChipPotFedBeef NonFedBeef Pork ChickenTurkey WoolClean FluidMilkwhol FluidMilkLowFatSkimMilk Cream EvapCondM NonFatDryMButter AmCheese OtCheese CottageCheIceCream Bagasse Lignin LigninHardwd LigninSoftwdEdTallow NonEdTallow YellowGrease
CropEthanol CellEthanol Biodiesel BiodieselWOMktGasBlend SubGasBlend Tbtus
Corn Belt
Great Plains
Lake States
NortheastPacific Southwest
Pacific Northwest
South Central
SoutheastSouth West
WestEast
Rocky Mountains
FASOM Agricultural Regions
Foreign Regions in FASOM
10 1213
1425
26
17
29
30
67
5
3
2
1
28
15
15
20
22
21
19
8
2723
1116
26
FASOM has supply and demand curves for corn, 4 types of wheat, soybeans, rice and sorghum across the above regions and within 11 major US regions where the region trades the commodity. FASOM also maintains transportation costs between all regions. The model determines exports to the point where prices are in equilibrium considering transport across all markets.
Modeled Beef Cattle Flow
Cow/Calf•Beef Steer Calves•Beef Heifer Calves•Cull Cows
Replacement Breeding Stock
Steer Yearling Stockers
Steer CalvesSteer Calf Stockers
Heifer Yearling Stockers
Feedlot Beef
Yearlings
First Grazing
Program
Second Grazing Program
Heifer Calves Heifer Calf
Stockers
Feedlot Beef
Calves
First Grazing
Program
Second Grazing Program
Feedlot Beef Slaughter
Cull Cows
Non-Fed Beef Slaughter
Bulls
Modeled Dairy Cattle Flow
Dairy•Milk•Dairy Steer Calves•Dairy Heifer Calves•Cull Dairy Cows
Replacement Breeding Stock
Raw Fluid Milk
Dairy Steer Calves*
*Dairy Steer Calves merge in with the Steer Calves in the Beef Cattle Flow
Steer Yearling Stockers
Steer Calves
Steer Calf Stockers
First Grazing
Program
Second Grazing Program
Feedlot Beef Yearlings
Feedlot Beef Calves
Feedlot Beef SlaughterDairy Cull
Cows
Non-Fed Beef Slaughter
Dairy Heifer Calves
Bulls
Rift Valley FeverAn emerging disease and agro-bio-terror
threat
• Mosquito-borne viral disease of livestock and humans
• Transmission modulated by weather• Demonstrated ability to travel• Unknown outside Africa and Arabian Peninsula
Appearance in US expected to impact agriculture sector severely
• Cost of cattle illness and death• Potential bans on US livestock
Limited analytic tools to support decision-making or operational planning
• French vector model• USDA/NASA risk assessment method
Epidemic/Economic Modeling
Biology and Epidemiology
Economics
Disease Vectors
EnvironmentModeling Infection
Estim
ate
s
Animal ProductionAnalysisCosts & Impacts
Subject MatterExperts
Items changed in FASOM/ASM for Rift Study
For both beef and dairy on a geographic basisCalving rateAdult beef production (Deaths and culling)Culled cattle (those who lost calves)Replacement needs (lost adults and lost replacements)Milk production (Deaths and cows that lost calves)
In model other indirect effectsFeed usageCalf movementReleased feed usage expanded elsewhere (exports, biofuels)
Regional locus of feedingProductionCommodity pricesDairy and beef products
High Plains FMD Epidemic/Economic Modeling
• 64 scenarios over various outbreak and disease mitigation scenarios– Early detection vs. late detection – Ring vs. targeted vaccination– Adequate vs. inadequate vaccine availability– Regular vs. enhanced surveillance– Slaughter options: ring slaughter, slaughter of
infected, and slaughter of dangerous contacts
AusSpread
• Output– Duration of epidemic in weeks– Expected number of infected herds– Expected number of dangerous contacts– Expected slaughter– Expected vaccination
Integration into FASOM
• Unlike Rift, FMD affects more than cattle• Adjustment of sheep and swine budgets as
well• Estimate percentage impacts and adjust
budgets by these percentages• Spatially lock infected region at the
production level
Specific Adjustments
• Cow/Calf• Dairy• Milk• Sheep• Wool• Feeder Pig Production• Hog Farrow to Finish
Example: Dairy• Dairy budgets are on a per cow basis• A single dairy cow produces, on average a certain
amount of milk and a certain amount of dairy calves each year as well as cull cows
• To do this she needs a certain amount of inputs • The conversion of FMD effects into percentage
allows the modeler to adjust these outputs across an entire region
• the model automatically shifts input to alternative uses
Baseline Specification
Average Units / Description
base.Silage -6.600 US tons for dairy production
base.Hay -5.060 US tons for dairy production
base.Milk 193.906 100 lbs of raw milk
base.CullDairyCows 1.657 100 lbs of cull dairy calves
base.DairyCalves 2.057 100 lbs of dairy calves
base.biomanure 4.940 tons manure available for bioprocesses
base.SoybeanMeal 0.860 tons soybean meal
base.DairyCon0 108.529 100 lbs grain blend for dairy cattle
base.Pasture 1.750 Acres of pasture land
base.Labor 31.587 Hours
base.othercosts 1272.391 Dollars
base.Profit 1435.851 Dollar difference between revenues and costs
base.Head 1.000 Budget is for one animal
Code in FASOM*adjust budgets for slaughterlivestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"DairyCalves") $(livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"DairyCalves") and avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains",herdcomponent)) =(livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"DairyCalves")
-2.057*(avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","infected")+ avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","immune")+
avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","dead")));
*handle milk loss livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"milk") $(livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"milk") and avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains",herdcomponent)) =(livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"milk")* (1-(avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","latent")+ avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","infected")+ avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","immune")+ avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains“,“dead”)));
Initial Accomplishments (VI)Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak
Welfare for Agriculture
Base millions
Economic Impacts
Large Feedlot Grazing Operation Backyard
(1) Early Detection
(57) Late
Detection
(15) Early Detection
(7) Late Detection
(40) Early Detection
(16) Late Detection
US Consumers$1,587,043 -$218 -$354 -$64 $163 $172 -$21,106
US Processors$2,681 $13 $0.0142 $13 -$15 -$44 $46
US Producers$54,951 -$22,384 -$44,849 -$1,514 -$3,498 -$4,213 -$7,108,210
US Total
$1,644,676 -$22,590 -$45,203 -$1,565 -$3,350 -$4,085 -$7,129,270
Foreign Consumers$188,107 -$87 -$89 -$65 -$37 -$62 -$1,691
Foreign Producers$15,039 $21 $19 $10 -$15 -$10 $1,329
Rest Total$203,146 -$66 -$70 -$54 -$53 -$72 -$362
Total Globally$1,847,823 -$22,656 -$45,274 -$1,620 -$3,404 -$4,158 -$7,129,632
Costs for Disease Management and Carcass Disposal
• Disease Management– Vaccination (per head and per farm)– Testing (per farm)– Surveillance (per farm/ per visit)
• Carcass Disposal– Appraisal (per farm)– Euthanasia (per head)– Disposal (per farm)– Cleaning and Disinfecting (per farm)
Average Costs Across Scenarios
• Disease Management– $5,912,086.82
• Carcass Disposal– $39,998,352.68
Average Across Scenarios: $45,910,439.5
Price Changes from Pre-Event Base• Drops in
– Cotton, soybeans, wheat, barley, silage , hay and sugarcane (less than 1%) – Feeder Pig prices dropped about 15% across scenarios– Feeder calves, stocker calves dropped 2-7%– Not much change in cattle yearlings
• Prices Increased for– Fresh vegetables and raw milk (less than 1%)– Broilers, pork and fed beef (small 0.1 – 2%)– Generally no change in lamb
• Certain late detection, backyard index cases were exceptions. – Very large drops and increases (15-40%)– Rarely, dairy calves and steer calves dropped almost 100%.