Biological Attack Model(BAM)

Status UpdateFebruary 22

Richard BornhorstRobert GrilloDeepak JanardhananShubh KrishnaKathryn Poole

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Agenda

• Project Concept

• Project Plan

• Project Risk Assessment

• Biological Agent Overview

• BAM Schematic

• Model Overview

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Project Concept

• Develop a Biological Attack Model (BAM) to assist the Emergency Management Agency (EMA) and emergency responders with crisis management in the event of a biological attack– Minimize the exposure of biological agents to

responders and the general public• Target aspects of the biological attack model that

will benefit stakeholders the most• Provide models, plans, or procedures to address

identified gaps in the current model of a biological attack

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Project PlanDescription WEEK 5 WEEK 6 WEEK 7 WEEK 8 WEEK 9 WEEK

10WEEK 11

WEEK 12

WEEK 13

WEEK 14

WEEK 15

Research Biological AgentsResearch Existing ModelsDetailed Design and Model DevelopmentProgress PresentationStatus Report # 2Progress DiscussionTesting, Evaluation, and RecommendationsFormal Progress PresentationFinal Report DraftingFinal Report DuePresentation PreparationFinal Presentation

Slip

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Project Risk Assessment

• A biological attack is a very complex event• A project risk assessment was conducted to

determine which tasks are feasible within the time constraints of one semester– Original Project would require 1240 man-hours to complete– Team members can contribute 10 man-hours per week– 1240 > 750 (10 times 15 weeks)

• Adjusted project plan reduces the man-hours required to roughly 775 man-hours– Eliminated dispersion modeling (use existing models)– Reduced disease behavior modeling (mod an existing model)– Primarily focus on containment modeling

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Biological Agent Overview

• 22 biological agents that could be considered potential bio-terror weapons were initially considered for BAM– Based on lists from agencies such as the CDC and WHO

• Bio-terror agents can be classified by transmission method– Person to person– Airborne– Foodborne

• The bulk of development for BAM will be in building and refining the disease spread and containment models– BAM was scaled back to focus exclusively on one transmission type

• Selected person to person transmission

• New, reduced, list of pathogens considered for BAM:– Smallpox– Ebola– Viral Encephalitis

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Biological Agent Overview

• All three agents spread through human body fluids and can potentially be made into an aerosol weapon– Smallpox

• Sores, blisters, and boils appear, killing skin cells and spreading to internal organs

• Also spread through blankets and clothing contact• Can be vaccinated after exposure, but before symptoms appear

(no other treatment available)– Ebola

• Skin rash, damage to liver, kidneys, and other organs leading to bleeding from all openings

• No current vaccine or treatment – Viral Encephalitis

• Causes abnormal behavior, paralysis, convulsions, and death from nerve/brain damage

• Also spread through animal fluids• No vaccine for most forms, but with proper care, many people can

recover

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BAM Schematic

Disease DataSmall Pox

EbolaViral E.

Spread Model Decision

Scenario Related Data Decisions

Initial Conditions &

Intermediate Conditions

Disease Spread Model

SIRLink

Markov Chain ModelLink

Custom Spread Model

Census Data

Situation Analysis &

Reporting

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Epidemic Model Overview

• BAM will be built upon the SIR model (Susceptible – Infected – Recovered)– SIR is widely used to model the spread of epidemics and to

study immunization strategies within a population– The standard SIR model is not adequate for BAM

Populations Tracked

St = the number of susceptible individuals at time tIt = the number of infected individuals at time tRt = the number of recovered individuals at time t

Input VariablesB = transmission rateK = recovery rate

SIR Model

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Epidemic Model Overview

• Biological Attack Model (BAM) will expand upon the basic SIR model to incorporate additional parameters relevant to response planning– Quarantine

• Percentage of infected population quarantined per day• Percentage of contacts of infected population quarantined per day

– Treatment (vaccination, antibiotics, etc.)• Percentage of infected population treated per day• Percentage of susceptible population treated per day

– Deaths related to the bio-attack• Mortality rate of the disease• Mortality rate of treatment (vaccination, antibiotics, etc.)

• Once complete, BAM will be used to perform parametric studies and sensitivity analyses that will be detailed in the final briefing and report

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Questions

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