biological anthropology lab human population michelle y. merrill, ph.d
TRANSCRIPT
Biological Anthropology Lab
Human Population
Michelle Y. Merrill, Ph.D.
Ernst Mayr Summarizes
Darwin’s Argument forEvolution via Natural Selection
• Fact #1: organisms reproduce exponentially
• Fact #2: population size generally constant
• Fact #3: resources limited• Inference #1: The Struggle
for Existence• Fact #4: organisms vary • Fact #5: variation heritable• Inference #2: non-random
survival and reproduction• Inference #3: accumulation
of favorable characteristics adaptation
How to be a human?
Fact #1: All organisms could increase population exponentially.
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
-Albert A. Bartlett, Physicist
7% annual growth = doubles every decade!
Growth rateGrowth rate’’95-’00 = 1.37%95-’00 = 1.37%’’00-’05 = 1.24%00-’05 = 1.24%’’05-’10 = 1.17%05-’10 = 1.17%
(~198,000 years)
Which would you rather?
• $1,000,000.00 right now OR• A penny today, that would double every day
for a month• Day 2: $0.02• Day 3: $0.04• Day 4: $0.08• Day 5: $0.16 …
• Day 30: $5,368,709.12That’s the POWER of That’s the POWER of exponential growth!exponential growth!
Exponential Population Growth
19 Children361 Grandchildren6,859 Great-grandchildren130,321 Great-great-grandchildren2,476,099 – 5th generation47,045,881 – 6th generation893,871,739 – 7th generation16,983,563,041 – 8th generation
Duggar Family, Arkansas
“19 Kids and Counting”At the Duggar’s reproductive rate, how many generations would it take for the Duggar population to exceed Earth’s present population?
The Lily Pond ParableThe Lily Pond Parable• If a pond lily doubles every If a pond lily doubles every
day, and it takes 30 days to day, and it takes 30 days to completely cover a pondcompletely cover a pond…
• At what point would preventative action At what point would preventative action become necessary to prevent unpleasant become necessary to prevent unpleasant events?events?
• On what day will the pond be 1/2 covered? On what day will the pond be 1/2 covered?
• 1/4 covered? 1/4 covered?
• How much would it help if we could double How much would it help if we could double the size of the pond? the size of the pond?
• With respect to human population and With respect to human population and environmental degradation, what environmental degradation, what corresponding day is it for the world?corresponding day is it for the world?
Adapted from http://www.ecofuture.org/pop/facts/exponential70.html
Population Growth Rates by country, 2006
Population Growth Explained with Ikea Boxes
http://www.gapminder.org/videos/population-growth-explained-with-ikea-boxes/