Renewable energy carriers:Biofuels und Hydrogen

Amela AjanovicVienna University of Technology,

Energy Economics Group

• Introduction• Biofuels

– Economic and ecological assessment• Hydrogen

– Economic and ecological assessment• Conclusions

Contents

Introduction

Alternative energy carriers

Mature AECElectricity

1st gen. biofuels:Bioethanol

Biogas Biodiesel

…

Mature AECElectricity

1st gen. biofuels:Bioethanol

Biogas Biodiesel

…

Inmature AEC2nd gen. biofuels:

Bioethanol from LignocelluloseBtL

Bio-SNGBio-DMEHydrogen

…

Inmature AEC2nd gen. biofuels:

Bioethanol from LignocelluloseBtL

Bio-SNGBio-DMEHydrogen

…AEC in labour stage3rd gen. biofuels:Biofuels from algae

….…. Technology suprise!4th gen.biofuels

….

Technology suprise!4th gen.biofuels

….

Introduction

Production Storage & transport Conv. into service CO2 emissions

BF-1 Minor problems No problem No problem Problem

BF-2 Problem No problem No problem No problem

H2 No problem No problem Problem Depends

Introduction

Share of biofuels in total road-fuel consumption in energy terms, 2007 (Source: F.O.Licht,IEA)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%

Brazil

US

EU

World

Canada

China

India

Biofuels production

Recent trends in ethanol production (Source: F.O.Licht,IEA)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mili

on li

tres

Brazil USA Canada China India EU Other

Biofuels production

Recent trends in biodiesel production (Source: F.O.Licht,IEA)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mto

e

EU US Other

Land resources and land use

Arable land, (Source: FAO,2007)

Europe +20%

Oceania +3%

Africa +16%

Americas +26%Asia +

35%

Land resources and land use

Forest area31%

Permanent meadows and

pastures26%

Permanent crops1%

Arable land11%Other land

31%

Introduction

BF-2: Major advantages expected are:

• better ecological performance: low life-cycle carbon emissions;

• no associated land-use changes;

• due to the fact that they are produced from lignocellulose also huge potential for feedstocks required are expected.

• if produced on large scale also economic competiveness is expected.

Well-to-Wheels Pathways

WTT TTW

+

WTW

Feedstock Fuels Powertrain

Environmental performance

CALCULATION OF WTT- FUEL NET BALANCE

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Gasoline

Diesel

CNG

gCO2_equ/MJ

WTT -Fuel NetWTT-PlusWTT - Minus

BE-1

SNG

BD-1

BE-2

BM

BD-2

(Source: Joanneum Research calculations)

WTT = WTT-minus + WTT-plus

WTT-plus ….. CO2 fixation due to biomass planting

WTT-minus… CO2 emissions during fuel production

Environmental performance

(Source: Joanneum Research calculations)

WTT-, TTW- AND WTW-NET EMISSIONS 2010

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Gasoline

Diesel

CNG

BE-1

BD-1

BM

BD-2

BE-2

SNG

gCO2_equ/MJWTT-Fuel Net TTW-Fuel WTW-Fuel

WTT-, TTW- and WTW net CO2 emissions of fossil vs biofuels in 2010 for the average of EU countries on a WTW

Energetic assessment

(Source: Joanneum Research calculations)

Energetic assessment of the considered biofuels for 2010 and 2050

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

BD-1 Rap

e see

dBE-1

Wheat

BG-1 Green

Maiz

e

BD-2 FT-Dies

el (Woo

d)BE-2

Straw

BG-2 SNG (W

ood)

BD-1 Rap

e see

dBE-1

Wheat

BG-1 Green

Maiz

e

BD-2 FT-Dies

el (Woo

d)BE-2

Straw

BG-2 SNG (W

ood)

kWh_

in/k

Wh_

out

fossil renewable

2010 2050

Economic assessment

Calculation of biofuel costs• Total biofuel production costs (CBF ) for year t are calculated as

follows:

• CD …….distribution and marketing costs • SubBF ….subsidies for biofuels • CGC ….gross conversion costs of biofuels plant

BFDGCFSBF SubCCCC −++=

TCRFICCGC⋅

=• IC ….investment costs • CRF…capital recovery factor• T……operating hours per year

Economic assessment

Calculation of the feedstock costs are calculated as follows:

• PFS ….feedstock price• fCON ….conversion factor • fTC …..factor for transaction costs • CTR ….feedstock transport costs • Rby …….revenues from by-products

byTRTCCON

FSFS RCf

fPC −+=

Biofuel Production CostsPRODUCTION COSTS FOSSIL VS BIOFUELS 2010

-5 0 5 10 15 20

BD-1

BD-2

Diesel

BE-1

BE-2

Gasoline

BM

SNG

CNG

cent/kWh fuel

Feedstock Capital Other inputs Energy costsOther O&M By-Product Credit Marketing & Distr. Market price

Production costs of fossil vs biofuels excl. taxes in 2010 for the average of EU countries

Technology learning curves

20000

10000

5000

1000

100

10 100 1000 10000 100000

1982

1987

1963

1980

Windmills (USA)(learning rate ~ 20%)

RD&D phase

Commercializationphase

USAJapan

Cumulative MW installed

19811983

500

Photovoltaics(learning rate ~ 20%)

Gas turbines (USA)(learning rate ~ 20%, ~10%)

US(

1990

)$/k

W

1995

1992

200

2000

bxaxC −⋅=)(C(x): Specific cost x: Cumulative capacityb: Learning indexa: Specific cost of the first unit

p b−= 2

P: progress ratio

Economic analysis

Economic analysis

)()()( __ xICxICxIC tNewtCont +=where:ICCon_t (x)…specific investment cost of conventional mature technology components

(€/kW)

x ………..cumulative capacity up to year t (kW)

For ICCon_t (x) no more learning is expected. For ICNew_t (x) we have to consider a national and an international learning effect:

ICNew_t (x) = ICNew_t (xnat_t ) + ICNew_t (xint_t )

where:ICNew_t (xnat_t )..specific national part of ICNew_t (x) of new technology components (€/kW)

ICNew_t (xint_t )..specific international part of ICNew_t (x) of new technology components (€/kW)

Technological learning :

Economic analysis

EU

R/k

Wh

2010 2050

BF-1_pess

BF-1_opt

Foss_low

Foss_high

BF-2_opt

BF-2_pess

Uncertainty: current costs of BF-2

Possible range of scenarios for the development of costs of fossil fuels and biofuels up to 2050

Economic analysis

Cost of fossil fuels vs biofuels incl. and excl. taxes in 2010 vs 2050 for the average of EU-countries in prices of 2010

Small scale

Large scale

2010

EUR

/kW

h

2050

Economic analysis

Cost of fossil fuels vs biofuels incl. and excl. taxes in 2010 vs 2050 for the average of EU-countries in prices of 2010

Small scale

Large scale

2010

EUR

/kW

h

2050

COSTS OF FOSSIL & BIOFUELS INCL. AND EXCL. TAXES 2010 VS 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Diesel

BD-1BD-2

Gasoli

neBE-1BE-2

CNG BMSNG

Diesel

BD-1BD-2

Gasoli

neBE-1BE-2

CNG BMSNG

cent

/kW

h

Costs 2010 Excise tax 2010 VAT Costs 2050 CO2-tax 2050 VAT 2020

2010 2050

Economic analysis

Biofuels vs. fossil fuels – state of the art assessment 2010 of production costs [€/GJ] (exclusive taxes) and WTW CO2 emissions [g CO2equ/MJ]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

gCO2equ/MJ

EUR

/GJ

COSTS & CO2-EMISSIONS OF BIOFUELS 2010

BE-1

BD-1

BE-2

CNG

Diesel

BM

BD-2

Gasoline

Characteristic of H2:

Hydrogen is the simplest, lightest and most abundant element in the universe.

It constitutes about three-quarters of the mass of the universe, but it does not exist on the earth in elemental form in quantities associated with energy use.

It can be produced from different energy sources.

Hydrogen

HIGH EFFICIENCY & RELIABILITY

ZERO/NEAR ZERO EMISSIONS

Transportation

With

Car

bon

Sequ

estr

atio

n

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

NuclearDistributedGeneration

Biomass

HydroWindSolar

Geothermal

Hydrogen supply chains

Hydrogen

Production Costs of H2 from various RES and NG sources (as of 2010)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

H2_NG Russia_SS

H2_NG Russia_LS

H2_NG EUMIX_SS

H2_NG EUMIX_LS

H2_EUMIX_RES_SS

H2_EUMIX_RES_LS

H2_RES_Wind_SS

H2-RES_Wind_LS

H2 costs (c€/kWh)

Feedstock Costs

Capital Costs

Operating Costs

HydrogenDRIVING COSTS OF CONVENTIONAL VS ALTERNATIVE

VEHICLES 2010

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

FCV (H2 NG)

FCV (H2 RES-Mix)

BEV (UCTE Coal Mix)

BEV (new NG)

BEV (RES-mix)

Gasol-Hybrid-ICE

Diesel-Hybrid-ICE

Gasol-ICE

Diesel-ICE

EUR/km

Investment costsO&M costsFuel costs

Hydrogen and Electric vehicles vs conventional passenger cars – State of the Art of economic assessment of driving costs 2010 (Size of vehicle: 80 kW)

Hydrogen

Comparison of specific CO2 emissions and driving costs of conventional and hybrid gasoline and diesel vehicles with pure BEV based on different electricity generation mixes and FCV with

hydrogen from NG vs RES

CONVENTIONAL VS ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 50 100 150 200gCO2/km

EUR

/km

BEV-RES-MixBEV-Nat.Gas New

BEV-UCTE-Mix

FCV H2-Nat.Gas FCV-RES-Mix

Gasol.Hybrid ICE

Diesel Hybrid ICE

Gasol. ICE

Diesel ICE

ConclusionsBF-1:• limited available feedstocks • the modest ecological performance

BF-2:• a wide range of new feedstocks• high costs• economically competitive by 2050

H2 :• secondary energy carrier• high costs• infrastructure

Conclusions

achievement of significant learning effects leading to considerable lower plant costs; significant improvement of conversion efficiency from feedstock to fuel leading to lower feedstock prices and better ecological performance; increases in conventional diesel and gasolineprices, e.g. due to CO2 based taxes.

• proper tax policies and continuous increases of fossil fuel prices could make AEC competitive in the market.

Thank you for attention!