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Biofortification Priority Index:A Global Strategy Tool for Investing

in Crop Biofortification

Dorene Asare-MarfoHarvestPlus, IFPRI

Presentation at the 5th Annual LCIRAH ConferenceLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)

June 3, 2015

Global Prevalence of Micronutrient Deficiencies

This map details worldwide severity of the most common micronutrient deficiencies—vitamin A, iron, and zinc—using World Health Organization (WHO) children under 5 prevalence data. Severity was coded using a 3-point weighting system based on levels of public health significance cut-offs (low, moderate, and high).

Hidden Hunger ‘Victims’

Poor quality diets

– high intake of staple foods

(e.g. rice, maize, cassava)

– low intake of micronutrient-rich foods

(e.g. fruits and vegetables)

Lack resources to grow or purchase micronutrient-rich foods

Ideally, we want to improve MD (hidden hunger) by making micronutrient-rich foods more accessible and affordable to the poor ...

Process of breeding staple crops that are naturally

enriched with micronutrients

Biofortification is not a ‘silver bullet’

... A complimentary tool in the

nutrition interventions toolkit

H+ Target Crops (current)

8 countries

WHERE ARE THE BEST

PLACES TO INVEST IN

BIOFORTIFIED NUTRITIOUS

CROPS???

Biofortification Priority Index (BPI)

A tool to help stakeholders assess where, and in

which biofortified crops to invest

Crop specific (7 distinct crop BPIs)

Vitamin A Crops: Cassava, Maize, Sweet Potato

Iron Crops: Beans, Pearl Millet

Zinc Crops: Rice, Wheat

Ranks countries globally

127 countries across 3 regions (Africa, Asia, LAC)

Priority conditions

1. Produce the crop

2. Consume much of the crop on a per capita basis

3. Have a high level of micronutrient deficiency

Production Index (PI)

Consumption Index (CI)

Micronutrient Deficiency

Index (MDI)

Biofortification Priority

Index (BPI)

Production Sub Index (PI)

Measures the intensity of crop production

Variables:

Per capita area harvested (sqm per capita)

Share of cultivated land area allocated to crop (%)

Export share (%)

Production Index =[1 – export share] x

[(0.5 x per capita area harvested ) +(0.5 x % land area allocated to crop )]

Consumption Sub Index (CI)

Measures the magnitude of per-capita consumption of crop which is supplied by domestic production

Variables:

Consumption per capita (kg/cap/year)

Import share (%)

Consumption Index =Consumption per capita x (1-Import Share*)

*Import share = Imports/(Production + Imports - Exports)

Vitamin A MDI

Measures the extent of Vitamin A deficiency

Variables:

Proportion of preschool-age children with serum retinol less than 0.7μmol/l

Age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants by VAD

Vitamin A Deficiency Index =(0.5 x Prop children with retinol < 0.70 umol/l)

+ (0.5 x Age-standardized DALYs )

Iron MDI

Measures the extent of Iron deficiency

Variables:

Proportion of preschool-age children with Hb < 110 g/dl

Age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants by IDA

Iron Deficiency Index =(0.5 x Prop children with Hb < 110 g/l)

+(0.5 x Age-standardized DALYs)

Measures the extent of Zinc deficiency

Variables:

Percentage of population at risk of inadequate zinc intake

Prevalence of stunting among children 6-59 months (%)

Zinc Deficiency Index =(0.5 x % population at risk of inadequate zinc intake)

+(0.5 x Prevalence of stunting)

Zinc MDI

Biofortification Prioritization Index (BPI)

𝐁𝐏𝐈 Score = 𝐏𝐈 × 𝐂𝐈 × 𝐌𝐃𝐈

Data Sources

Sub-index Variable Data source

Production

Share of area harvested (%) FAO 2010

Per-capita area harvested (sq meter) FAO 2010

Export share (%) FAO 2010

ConsumptionPer-capita food consumption FAO 2010

Import Share (%) FAO 2010

Micronutrient Deficiency

SerumRetinol < 0.7umol/l WHO 2009

DALYs VAD WHO 2002

Inadequate Zinc ZiNCG 2004

Hb<110g/l WHO 2008/DHS

DALYs IDA WHO 2002

Stunting Zinc WHO 2006 - 2010

BPI CROP SCORE

100 0High priority Low priority

BPI CROP PRIORITY GROUP (QUINTILES)

Top High Medium Low Little/No

BPI CROP RANK

1st nthHigh priority Low priority

Results – Global Rankings (Top 10)

GlobalRank

Vitamin A crops Iron crops Zinc crops

MaizeSweet Potato

Cassava BeansPearl millet

Rice Wheat

1 Malawi Angola Mozambique Rwanda Niger Cambodia Tajikistan

2 Benin Burundi Angola Benin Gambia Bangladesh Turkmenistan

3 Zambia Uganda Ghana TanzaniaBurkina

FasoLaos Azerbaijan

4 Kenya Mozambique Liberia Burundi Chad Myanmar Afghanistan

5 Mozambique Rwanda Benin Myanmar Senegal Viet Nam Pakistan

6 Angola Tanzania CAR Togo Mali Indonesia Kazakhstan

7 Burkina Faso Sierra Leone DRC Haiti Nigeria Sierra Leone Uzbekistan

8 Zimbabwe Madagascar Sierra Leone Uganda Namibia Madagascar Turkey

9 Timor-Leste Guinea Côte d'Ivoire AngolaGuinea-Bissau

Sri Lanka India

10 Mali Haiti Zambia Kenya Uganda Philippines Iraq

BPI Interactive Tool

• Recently launched (January 2015)

• bit.ly/HPlusBPI

WEIGHTED BPI

𝑩𝑷𝑰𝒘𝒆𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒆𝒅 = 𝑩𝑷𝑰𝒖𝒏𝒘𝒆𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒆𝒅 × 𝑨∗

*A = share of harvested area for a specific crop in global area harvested to that crop

i.e. Land area weightedOR

= share of country’s target population in global target population

i.e. Population weighted

Comparing Unweighted and Weighted BPI: The case of Vitamin A Maize

Note: The weighted BPI is a complementary tool. It should be examined concurrently with the unweighted BPI for effective decision making.

Concluding remarks

BPI is a helpful decision-making tool for prioritizing investment in biofortified crops

Interesting Findings

– Current H+ target countries are top priority for the crops that have already been introduced there Got it right!

– Opportunities for expansion into other (neighboring) countries

– Africa: Maize and root crops (vitamin A), beans and millet (iron)

– Asia: Wheat, Rice (zinc)

– Certain countries are suitable candidates for ‘food basket’ investment approach e.g. Angola

BPI Limitations

– Aggregated national level data may hide within-country variation

Subnational BPI (e.g. Ethiopia, Colombia, Nigeria, India)

– Does not consider cost-benefit explicitly

– Data limitations